I believe you, I just don't get it

[AtGame7]

I defer to the more intelligent than myself (and let's face it, home alone I ain't the smartest guy in the room), at this point I would just like to UNDERSTAND the math behind things.

In another thread (sorry if this doesn't warrant another thread and please merge if so) a few folks let me know that I was better off playing a straight Don't Pass wager rather than a Doey/Don't and then taking dark side odds.

In my head the math goes like this:

On $10 wagers over 36 come out rolls I should see the following:
Straight DP line bet 8 losers and 3 winners with one push for a line bet loss of $50.
Doey/Don't I should lose the PL bet once via the 12 and push everything else for a loss of $10

That is as far as I can get with the math in my head. It really seems to me that I am $40 better off by playing a Doey/Don't. AGAIN, I firmly believe those smarter than me have it right, I just cant figure out why and I would sure like to.

I played last night for about 6 hours and decided to play a straight Don't Pass with 2x odds. I ended the session down a mere $20 but can tell you I got annihilated on front line losers. I kept track for the first 55 come out rolls, I had a net loss of $110 on come out rolls for that period. While on the high end of the expected spectrum it was not crazy out of line to see that happen I don't think. I stopped keeping track after roughly two hours (maybe more), but I can easily pin my small losses last night on come out losers. There were no 12's thrown during that time on Come Out rolls.

So yes, while the math (which I know never lies) defines the house edge as worse in the Doey/Don't as opposed to straight DPL it sure doesn't seem like it adds up. What am I missing?

[Golfer]

It is a grind. I will use a hedge, if comeout winners are killing me. If it is the 11 a $1-5 bet on the yo does the trick. Just measure it to your flat DP. I do sometimes press the 11 if it hits looking for a repeater. 2-4 times is not unusual.

If the 7's are whacking me, I will use a lay bet on one of the following: 5,6,8 or 9. I do not lay the 4 or 10. Too expensive on a loss. If 6's or 8's are showing as points a lot, the 5 or 9 serve me well, or vice versa. Is it perfect? No. Does it help? Yes. Should you do this every comeout? No. Hedges dilute winnings. Use with discipline and caution. If the hedges do not improve your position, guess what? It is probably time to walk and end that session.

One more note, some of the best of times for darksiders is when there are lots of comeout winners for the rightsiders, but as soon as a point is established, the 7 follows in a couple of rolls. For these times the hedges (incl. your doey/don't) are worth it. It is even better when you press appropriately.


Good Luck

Golfer

[heavy]

You can avoid those come out losers by avoiding the come out roll. Wait until the point is established - then play a DC with odds. I use this play all the time. Of course, the PSO's will hurt you. But on a cold to choppy table - and most of the time that's what you'll find - this should work as well as anything. No math magic to it other than the fact that if there IS someone at the table who is trying to toss sevens or elevens on the come out - you avoid that toss.

[Dylanfreake]

Rightsiders play a doeyDont when they are at an advantage on the comeout. Which I think is totally stupid. Of course after a point is established that advantage goes a way.

Darksiders play a doeyDont and they only lose with a 12 on the comeout. That play isn`t what I call totally stupid. Laying odds gives the darkside player an advantage the rest of the way.

Either way you play the comeout and no matters what happens after there is still about a 1.4% house edge whichever way you play on the comeout.

My advice is to play whichever way you want to play.

I think the best way to play craps is to play the table minimum DP wager and take maximum amount of odds, but I don`t play that way. I use a naked DP wager and go up on a loss which is really a totally stupid way to play.

[AtGame7]

If you get beat on a 7, hop the 7 for $3 and a dollar each on the C&E (Craps Eleven). You just want to get to a box number.

I would think this makes things worse. You are cutting too deep into your line bet profits. If you are a $10/$15 line bettor then $5 is cutting into your wins by 33%-50% and increasing your losses the same amounts.


I'm sure the guys have it right that it's just best to accept the front line beating, but it just doesn't seem like it.

[wudged]

Laying odds gives the darkside player an advantage the rest of the way.

Laying odds is zero-advantage - neither the casino nor the player has any advantage.

Yes, you have more chance of winning the actual bet, but the average amount lost on the less-frequent pass line wins is going to equal out to the average amount won on the more-frequent seven-out.

[freak]

AtGame,

From my perspective you are only listing the expected "true-math" loss/gain from getting past the come out. Let's accept that your math is correct. This puts you in a point to either place or lay odds on your DP or PL bet. There's not really an advantage either way. You will win mostly on the DP but since you're laying the odds those few losses are really going to cost you. This is a good "defensive" play but leaves you with no "offensive" advantage. If you just placed a DP bet, and took it on the chin for that $40, you be in a great offensive position to win most of the time on the 7out. I think you will find that the math shows you will ALMOST always make up for that $40 loss when the the point isn't made. A straight $10 DP bet on a point of 4 is VERY likely to resolve in your favor and much better and laying $20 to win $10. As I have grown though my own understanding of the game I go through phases of play. I used to always place a 3way craps check on the come out. It became such a habit I didn't really consider the long term drain. And, more importantly I really liked the "lust" win of rolling a 12 with a $6 3-way craps bet. Losing $10 and winning $56 feels great. But once we started tracking our in casino rolls I noticed that even though I was making an occasional windfall, I was losing $3 - $6 on most come-outs and (just like the math says) it was a losing play for the trip. So mostly I stopped. I play with a larger buy-in and trust that the math will usually put me up positive on the come out for all the 7s and 11s. Now we just accept the craps loss and don't worry about craps checking. We do still sometimes play doey-don't if we find ourselves low on bankroll and needing to reduce the volatility for the short term. Or if we just want to shoot without pressure. If we can grind our way back to a reasonable bankroll then we just bet PL or DP depending on our instincts about the table trends and our rolling. In summary the math is helpful in guiding play, but in the short term anything can happen. Use the play that gives your personality the "comfort" or "fix" it needs from the game.

[Steen]

In my head the math goes like this:

On $10 wagers over 36 come out rolls I should see the following:
Straight DP line bet 8 losers and 3 winners with one push for a line bet loss of $50.
Doey/Don't I should lose the PL bet once via the 12 and push everything else for a loss of $10
...
So yes, while the math (which I know never lies) defines the house edge as worse in the Doey/Don't as opposed to straight DPL it sure doesn't seem like it adds up. What am I missing?

Yes, the math says that the house advantage is better (less) on the DP than on the Doey/Don't.

The house advantage on a "per $ of action" basis is:

Passline: 1.414%
Doey/Don't: 1.408%
Don't Pass: 1.403%

Your comparison is missing two things: the results after the come-out roll and the total action.

First, the total action. You're comparing a $10 DP with a $20 Doey/Don't (comprised of $10 DP and $10 Passline). Over the course of 36 average trials, the DP will experience a total of $350 in action whereas the $20 Dey/Don't will experience a total of $710 (more than twice the $10 DP). In order to properly compare the outcomes of these two very different wagers, you should either convert the outcomes to percentages or compare commensurate amounts at risk.

Next, you need to consider ALL the possible outcomes. It's true that over the course of 36 average trials a $20 Doey/Don't will on average lose $10, but is it true that a $10 DP will lose $50? No.

The $10 DP will on average lose $50 due to come-out naturals but after points are established it will on average experience gains to offset that $50 loss. For example, out of 36 average trials, 3 will become established on the point 4. On average 2 of those will win and 1 will lose for a net gain of $10. Consider all the other possible points and you'll find that they'll recover most but not all of the losses due to naturals on the come-out roll.

Now consider a bigger issue: the variance. With the DP, your outcome can be loss or a gain. With the Doey/Don't it can be a loss or break even. In other words, the Doey/Don't can never win.

In a nutshell, the DP is a bet that through winning and losing averages a loss of 1.403% but can range from all losses to all wins. The Doey/Don't is a combined bet that through losing and breaking even averages a loss of 1.408% but can range from all losses to breaking even.

Steen

[AtGame7]

Steen

Thank you. I believe I see what I am missing. It's just the frontline beating when playing the DP only is so easy to see and the "recovery" part isn't.

Thanks.

[Dylanfreake]

Your right wudged , what i was trying to get across was that on the comeout the Darksider is at a big disadvantage and after the comeout ,the darksider has a slight advantage except for the fact that there is a DP wager and when odds are layed ,the lay more to win less , is still whammied by the house edge.

In other words , the player can play a DP wager , naked or lay odds, or make a PL wager , naked or take odds , play a Doey/Dont, taking or laying odds, and you are still hit with the house edge.

That`s why I say play whichever way you are comfortable playing , just be sure that you quit a session when you are ahead.

[rudeboy99]

Heavy, I agree with you about waiting UNTIL AFTER the point's been established, then making a laydown on the DC, simply so that you aren't at odds with the majority of the players that are betting the PL. Not that you need anybody else s approval, but it certainly eases up any bad juju, and shows significant class...

[Dylanfreake]

I guess I show no class at a craps table since I always bet a DP wager.

[SHOOTITALL]

There is no getting around the comeout roll. Heck, I don't even think about it one way or another. In craps, the math is great but it seems the abnormalities of the math happens more often than not. By that I seem to be at that tables when the laws of math seem to be suspended by the gods of chance. Here you have to have faith. DF is probably the best darkside player on the board. It is more fun to watch paint dry but it certainly works. On the other hand, if you want to make a killing at the craps table, the dark its at least twice or more difficult than the right side. Darksiders are by nature grinders that have their egos in check and are not concerned with trying to win the mortgage on the casino. sia