I hate to ask dumb questions, but...

[AtGame7]

there are no dumb questions, just dumb people who don't know the answers to things.


In any given time frame I know anything can happen, but on average which wins more often the Pass Line or the Don't Pass? This would include all wins/losses on the come-out as well as point conversions/misses.

I guess it just seemed obvious to me that the DP wins more often, but laying odds evened out the money won and lost. I was not including come-out wins/losses in that thought process I'm sure.

So forget about money won/lost, I'm just curious as to actual wins vs losses on Pass vs Don't Pass.

[heavy]

The odds are statistically in the Pass Line players favor on the Come out. He has eight ways to win versus four ways to lose - and twenty-four non-decisions (points established). The Don't Pass is at an equivalent disadvantage since they bar the 12 on the come out. As far as the house edge is concerned, the Pass and Don't Pass are essentially dead even. The Don't Pass has a slightly lower house edge, but it is really insignificant. The thing you're probably thinking of is how often shooters seven out without making a pass. That happens roughly two our of three times - which means once the point is established, on average the Don't win two out of three times. Odds don't make any difference in the frequency of wins/losses - only the amount won or lost.

Countless craps players have tried to develop a betting strategy that favors the shooter on the Come Out cycle AND the Point Cycle. Unfortunately, there is no such animal - regardless of what any system seller may tell you.

[AtGame7]

Thanks. I'm not trying to develop any strategy or anything. I just assumed the Don't side won more often and then I read an older post here from a respected member who said the Don't Pass will lose more than it will win and it got me thinking. That's all.

[Mad Professor]

Hi AtGame7,

I'm not sure who posted that 'the Don't Pass will lose more often' but they are definitely mistaken.

~While the DP has the worst of it on the Come-Out (losing 73% of the 'instant' decisions to the 7 or 11, and only winning 27% of them with the 2 or 3); once the PL-Point is set; the DP will win an average of 60% of the time (and lose the other 40%).


MP

[gargoil]

So MP or Heavy, In lament term.
What is the best play for a DP on the come out in order to survive and hope for the point? In terms of $ unit example would help.

[vegasfan2010]

Maybe try both Pass Line and Don't Pass with the same bet. The odds go where you feel is the better bet. I have seen quite a few play this way. Only the 12 hurts on the Come Out.

[heavy]

Honestly - I'm not a fan of hedge bets on the Come Out. Let's say you want to have $25 action on the Don's. Bet a $15 Don't Pass bet. Once it is established - bet a $10 DC bet. The smaller bet on the DC guarantees you a win if the seven shows on the second toss. Once established, you have $25 action. If either of those bets get knocked off - consider laying sufficient odds to recover you loss. If you lose both bets you are done for that shooter that trip around the table. Don't chase your losses any further than that one lay bet. Just accept your losses and move on to the next shooter.

[harveyrb]

I'm remembering some statistics that indicate that 40% of pass line wins occur on the come out roll with a red or yo rolling, which would lose your DP bet. Is this correct? And if this is correct, how about a dark side better waiting to bet after the CO roll, with a Lay bet and/or a Don't Come bet.

[heavy]

Noe you're talking about John Patrick's Ricochet system. Wait until the point is established, then lay against the point for one roll as a hedge for you DC bet. For example - if the point established is the nine, lay $31 no nine and a $15 DC bet. If the seven rolls you lose the $15 but win a net $19 on the Lay bet. If you are going to play a hedge strategy that's probably about as good as it gets.

[Golfer]

We know dumb here. Some of us are experts at dumb. Never hesitate to ask a dumb question.