Parlaying the DC and Come and DP and Pass on comout

[Mad Professor]

Does the “Stack ‘em, Don’t Rack ‘em” Approach Make Any More Financial Sense Today Than it Did Back in 2004 or 2006 or 2009?

Back in 2004 when I first wrote this piece, many student D-I's were taught to stack their instant (7 or 11) PL-wins back onto the Passline instead of taking full-Odds, partial Odds, or even ANY Odds at all. This was done under the guise of being a “mathematically-sound winning strategy”.

Unfortunately, it is not anywhere close to being a mathematically-sound strategy.

When I updated and 'freshened' this piece again in 2006 for reposting (around the time I started this Not-So-Random Thought thread); many players were still being taught that the Stack 'Em, Don't Rack 'Em method was a sound strategy, and that scrimping on Odds would leave more money for a spreading widely across all the box-numbers.

Sadly, that is NOT anywhere close to being a mathematically-sound strategy; and so, many freshman and sophomore D-I students (as well as a surprising number of multi-year dice-influencers who have developed proficiency in most other aspects of their game) continue to see their D-I earning lag far, far behind their D-I skills.

Here's part of the problem:

If you still hold onto the notion that any money that you’ve just won is “the casinos money” and can be treated any differently than money that came out of your pocket; then I can see how this “parlay your PL-winnings back onto the Pass Line” approach for another instant-win or a subsequent now-larger-valued PL-Point win seems to make sense.

Many players who get ahead a certain amount during their session share the same “If I lose my winnings, I’m not REALLY losing because I’m playing with the casinos money” mentality…in which case I can see how some players and even a few dice coaches would want to somehow rationalize this “stack ‘em, don’t rack ‘em” approach.

However, to use this approach while somehow thinking (or worse yet, teaching) that it is a “mathematically sound winning strategy” as some have suggested; is to push the outer boundaries of veracity, or at least, altered reality.

The reality of dice-influencing is that the greater the difference between the money you bet on the Passline versus the amount of money you use to back that PL-bet with Odds; the more a dice-influencer is able to leverage his or her skills.

Similarly, if you scrimp on Odds when you are shooting in order to have more money to spread All-Across the box-numbers; then you are going to short-change your skills to a point where your D-I earnings will lag far behind what they could and should be putting directly into your pocket.

The Stack 'em Don't Rack 'em strategy didn't make sense back in 2004 when I first wrote about it; nor did it make sense in 2006 when we revisited this whole issue because of its curriculum popularity; and I can tell you again that it still doesn't make any better sense today than it did back then.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that a strategy like that actually robs you and your family of the money that your D-I skills could and should be producing.

Don't take my word for it; here’s the math:


Pass/Come

The probability of winning on the come out roll is pr(7)+pr(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36.

That’s how we come up with the 22.22% chance of producing an instant PL-win.

The chances of an instant PL-loser is 4/36 or 11.11%; and therefore as I mentioned previously, the PL does indeed enjoy the prospect of a 2:1 instant-win/instant-lose ratio.

The probability of establishing a point and then winning is pr(4)*pr(4 before 7) + pr(5)*pr(5 before 7) + pr(6)*pr(6 before 7) + pr(8)*pr(8 before 7) + pr(9)*pr(9 before 7) + pr(10)*pr(10 before 7) =
(3/36)*(3/9) + (4/36)*(4/10) + (5/36)*(5/11) + (5/36)*(5/11) + (4/36)*(4/10) + (3/36)*(3/9) =
(2/36) * (9/9 + 16/10 + 25/11) =
(2/36) * (990/990 + 1584/990 + 2250/990) =
(2/36) * (4824/990) = 9648/35640

The overall probability of winning is 8/36 + 9648/35640 = 17568/35640 = 244/495

The probability of losing is obviously 1-(244/495) = 251/495

Which means that the random-wagering PL-bettor will win 49.29% of the time and lose the other 50.71% of the time.

Therefore the player's edge is (244/495)*(+1) + (251/495)*(-1) = -7/495 = -1.414%.



Combining Your Passline-bet with Odds

The player edge on the combined Passline bet with Odds is the average player gain divided by the average player bet.

The gain on a randomly-wagered Passline-bet is always -7/495 and the gain on randomly-wagered Odds is always 0.

The expected bet depends on what multiple of Odds you are allowed. Lets assume full double-odds where the Passline-bet is $2, and the Odds on a 4, 5, 9, and 10 is $4, while the Odds on a 6 or 8 is $5.

The average gain is -2*(7/495) = -14/495.
The average bet is 2 + (3/36)*4 + (4/36)*4 + (5/36)*5 + (5/36)*5 + (4/36)*4 + (3/36)*4] =
2 + 106/36 = 178/36

The player edge when he takes full double-Odds is (-14/495)/(178/36) = -0.572%.

If you use the "stack 'em don't rack 'em" approach of parlaying instant PL-wins back onto the Passline; then the house edge obviously remains at -1.41%.

Instead, if you take those same instant PL-wins and used them as single-Odds behind your Passline, then the house-edge against you drops by about 40% to -0.848% .


When a skilled dice-influencer adds more Odds in relation to the amount of his Passline wager; the more his edge over the house is multiplied and the more his D-I skills are leveraged and over-weighted in his favor.

Unfortunately doing the opposite (making the PL-to-Odds ratio lower), acts to minimize your advantage over the house.

If you've worked hard to develop a skill; then why let the house off the hook?

If you have the skill; then use as much leverage as possible to fully exploit it. It's an advantage that is rightfully yours. You've worked hard to develop it. Don't unwittingly surrender most of your edge right back to them. That would be foolish.

Here’s the math regarding…

Place Bets

Place bet on 6 or 8: [(5/11)*7 + (6/11)*(-6)]/6 = (-1/11)/6 = -1/66 =~ -1.515%

The house-edge difference between this wager and one where a non-parlayed instant PL-win is used instead as single Odds is 1.79 times HIGHER.

Place bet on 5 or 9: [(4/10)*7 + (6/10)*(-5)]/5 = (-2/10)/5 = -1/25 = -4.000%

The house-edge difference between this wager and one where a non-parlayed instant PL-win is used instead as single Odds is 4.72 times HIGHER.

Place bet on 4 or 10: [(3/9)*9 + (6/9)*(-5)]/5 = (-3/9)/5 = -1/15 =-6.667%

The house-edge difference between this wager and one where a non-parlayed instant PL-win is used instead as single Odds is 7.86 times HIGHER.

The simple truth is that if you use the “Stack ‘em, Don’t Rack ‘em” approach, somehow thinking that it makes financial sense; it is an ERROR of monetarily significant proportions.


As always,

Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009

[acpa]

King of Dice.

The Dice Doctor was around when max odds were either 1x or 2x and before the concept of dice control was where it is now.

I have often wondered what Sam would think of the game now, but really think he would change his mind.

Noah

[wild child]

A lot of THE OLD GUYS preferred to only WAGER and NOT SHOOT.....May have had something
to do with the "ENVIRONMENT" in the good old days in other than what we today know as
legalized / organized .highly regulated body casino....

Even in this century,should a person look hard enough,there MAY EXIST , an occasional
" CLUB NO-NO "

Legend has ( had) it a TOO LUCKY CRAPS SHOOTER could see a fate akin to a POOL SHARK...

Old Sam ,I M H O , may not have been taken in by the allure of 20 X or 100X or 1,000 X ODDS.

Guys like that did the STREET MATH of considering the ENTIRE WAGER goes down when the
SEVEN SHOWS.......

I would not be surprised to learn from an authoritative source that DICE MECHANICS ( D I )
has come and gone over the ages.....

The SEVEN and/or ELEVEN could follow a 7 or YO...HOWEVER so could some other combination
of two dice .....( ever see a TWO or THREE or TWELVE work out for your PARLAYED WINNING
WAGER ?

W C

[1eleven]

the player has the advantage over the house on that particular bet.

Just to clarify, for other members who may not have the Dice Doctor's book - he never said the player will have the advantage over the house on that bet. It's simply a way to balance out the profit and try to overcome the losses on the CO and possibly catch a repeat.

[heavy]

Well, math be damned. I realize I'd be better off taking that Pass Line win and putting in my rack or using it as free odds once the point is established. Stack it - don't rack it is a game within a game to me. I consider the negative exposure to be minimal. I enjoy completing a parlay. I probably use this approach 80% of the time when I'm tossing the dice. Of course, I'm often playing a different game within a game - the World/High-Low come-out game. So I've also been known to take a Pass Line win and parlay it to the World bet. Horrible vig, but there's nothing like tossing a 12 and getting paid $110.

[rhythm roller]

I'm not a fan of the stack em don't rack em on the come out. In the case that a come bet wins on an 11, I tend to take the $10, and place or press with it instead of continuing on the come. This plays into my preference, to get come bets off the board as quickly as possible. If I have a come bet that moves, I add odds. If it then hits again, I place it back instead of returning to the come.

Hi Irish,

Just curious. When you place the number after the Come bet hits, what % of the win do you place back? When I do this move I usually try to Place about 50% of the win back on the number. Just wondering if you think this is too aggressive or not aggressive enough. Any thoughts on the proper amount?

Thanks!

[mycoalsmith]

I've seen it work both ways. I was once on a table where the minimum was $10.00, and the first roll a 7 or 11 came up. I parlay the win and another 7 or 11 rolled. So I'm now up to $40.00 on the Pass line. I prefer to play $5.00 tables rather than $10.00 so I decide to take my $30.00 winnings and rack them. Next roll - 7 or 11. Thinking it can't happen again, I take my $10.00 profit and have my Pass Line bet back to $10.00. Mmmm hmmm - ANOTHER 7 or 11!!! At this point I decided to parlay that. Finally got a point of 9 and after rolling around, the shooter hit a 9. Yeah, I won $40.00 off the Pass Line plus whatever odds I had taken, but if I would have parlayed the whole thing - it would have ended up with $160.00 on the Pass line. With the win, I would have got $360.00 for a $10.00 investment.

Using your Rack them and Stack them scenario would have given you an extra $40.00 to put on the odds.

Of course, I've also seen it go the other way - 7 or 11 parlay, 7 or 11, parlay, and then a 2,3, or 12 show and your money is gone.

Lately, I just let it parlay.