Maybe its semantics but your desire is to make money and your assumption is that you will or that you have enough to estimate how to... my point is that 1 hand is not enough to make that bold of a move with. I'll illustrate, if you've ever taken any of the IQ tests that give you a series of numbers and you guess out of 5 choices what the next should be you notice they give a series of 4 or more numbers to start. If the test says 1, 4, 5, 9, 14, 23 what number is next you might reasonably be able to guess, you might reasonably be willing to bet money you knew what the number was... but what if the test simply said 5 what is the next number... how much would you bet you knew that next number. With such a small sampling you couldn't determine a mean, a mode, a progression, regression, sequence, anything; whatever you did next is at best a complete guess. Maybe its just me but before I commit a large portion of my resources to a guess... I need a reason to believe that guess might be better than random. Seeing one hand each you're assuming that this isn't the longest hand shooter #1 has shot for the day, you're assuming that betting the don't on a random roller that had 80% of his comeouts as whirl numbers and 75% of those as a 7/11 you'd have enough money to lay on his point to overcome the 3 losses from the earlier DPs. You're assuming that you didn't just witness the shortest most successful roll shooter #3 had of the day. Not trying to beat up on you or anything, but if you make large bets based on equally large assumptions very often including that if the only guy making money was a Don't bettor and your untried toss for the day could weather that storm well then it would also be reasonable assumption those first 2 hands might well knock you off the table.gargoil wrote:Shunkaha, my assumption here is to make money from my play to stay in the game for a while then color up. So here is what I was thinking and please feel free to jump right in with advice. Remember I am still new at this.
Assuming it's shooter # 1 turn....
Shooter #1 MP204 Get a couple of hits then off.
Shooter #2 and #3 play the don't and hope to score.
Shooter #4 and #5 place the 6 and 8 for a couple of hits then down (based on general advice on randies from the forum)
Now you see I am making lots of assumptions and hoping for a lot.
I have to say now that I have taken a couple of classes and observed different betting strategies I would take a different approach.
One of the first things I read Heavy say about money management is don't overbet/underfund [also one of the most frequent, because if you fail that you don't even need any other advice usually], you should bring enough to be able to loose something like 10x without going broke, on a $300 buy in that is $30 per hand on average [notice that MP said $2000 would be more in line if you intend to bet $204, and even then I suspect he'd want more than a 1 hand sampling before he risked 10% on each]. I think the first rule of betting should be never assume that the first occurrence of anything is indicative of future results and in the seeing is believing line of reasoning you need to see an advantage before you try to bet an advantage... craps is entirely a math game and as such in my opinion you have to keep in mind several things, you will see short term variance in every session [the long term statistical mean on a table typically occurs in a period you won't be standing at the table to see [tables trend hot, they trend cold, they are choppy, etc... in the end they adhere to the math but seldom do they adhere to it the entire time, else you'd never see PSO or 40 roll hands]. You need to determine at the point you are on the table if you viewed everyone's toss results as a bell curve, what part of their personal curve for the day are you most likely seeing and what should it tell you for betting. That's why Heavy said he'd ask how's the table doing, he's attempting to get the best guess based on past results as to what future results he might expect [obviously its not a hard science like physics but you can reasonably expect if the Don't bettor says he bought in for $200 4 hrs ago and has yet to see any hand go over 15 rolls... you would be a little more than optimistic to bet on the premise that you were going to see several monster rolls].
Do not take advice as being too harsh