Spot the flawed logic for me if you will.....

[AtGame7]

I'm not sure if I'm just fooling myself because I'm using "house money" to cover the bets or if there is something else I am missing, but this worked for me yesterday and it worked well. By no means does this change the house edge on any bets in the slightest, but it did give me the chance to make bigger bets with less risk (in my head).

Start with a $15 line bet on either side, does not matter. For the first two bets you can even switch sides if you want, the idea is to parlay the first win to $30 and hit that. You now have $60 which you will put $50 on the Don't Pass and $10 on the Hop 7's/yo/12 for $2 each.

At this point the following can happen:
1. Aces or ace deuce, you rack $40 and keep the same action up.

2. 7/11 you get $32 and down from the hop bet for a profit of $17 and you start over with the $15 line bet.

3. A 12 rolls and you rack $52 and keep all action up.

4. We establish a point.

Once we establish a point we then place $88 inside including the point if it's an inside number and we the fun starts. The following can happen:

1. 7-out first roll we pick up our $100 from the line bet and start over with a $15 line bet losing $3 for the series.

2. Point is made on a buckshot. We pick up the $28 from our box number (assuming and inside number) and our $88 inside bet and start over with a $15 line bet winning $16 (if the point was 4/10 we lose $15 and start over).

3. Shooter starts rolling box numbers at $28 each for us.

How you play it from here is a matter of risk/reward. For me my goal was to get up $200 no matter what before I got crazy with pressing numbers etc... So I decided I wanted each shooter to make four box numbers and I would pull down the $88 inside. At that point I have picked up $200 in made box numbers and the $88 inside bet. My total outlay was $103 so I am now up $97 no matter what. I could pick up the $50 DP bet and lock up $147 profit or let it ride out to conclusion which I want to be a 7-out and I have a profit of $197 for the series.

NOW, the red text above assumes you are willing to think of each $15 starting line bet as a unit and the $88 inside for a total of $103 laid out. I think this is where I am tricking myself as once you win the $15 bet, parlay it to $30 and win that you really have $60 you are risking that is YOUR money, not the house's so I really have $148 at risk, of which I really can't lose more than $48.

Hopefully I am clear on what I am doing here and you can tell me why I am wrong. I don't remember any big rolls last night except maybe one four pointer and I did really well with this. I remember being frustrated from time to time at how long it took to win a parlay and get the inside action up. Literally first shooter I went with Pass line which was a YO, parlayed to $30, another YO and went to the DP for $50, point established was a 9 and I got my $88 up and back down in four rolls 6,6,5,8. I did miss two more box numbers by taking down the $88 inside, but the 7-out came three rolls after I picked up. So I never really had to chase at all and maybe that is why I think it worked so well, but I was able to color up over $850 on a $300 buy in.

Thoughts or questions?

[heavy]

This feels like a Twilight Zone moment. Didn't we go through something very similar a month or so back?

[AtGame7]

This feels like a Twilight Zone moment. Didn't we go through something very similar a month or so back?

Yea, I'm still trying to tweak it so I really feel like I'm not wasting my time. Ultimately I am sure I am, but I ain't doing nothing else tonight as the weather sucks here.

[heavy]

I heard you on the weather. Will try to take a look at it when I have more time. I'm afraid I'll nod off if I try it tonight.

[acpa]

To me it looks like a WinCraps bet file could be written and see what happens, if there isn't already such a bet file already.

I wonder if you would get there, wherever "there" is if you just started with you $50/$10 bet?

Noah

[tonybugs]

so what happens when shooter hits point? 2 points? 3? do you switch to pass?

What about after 4 hits? can you leave up numbers and press? not that $200 a shooter aint bad, but what about the big roll that gets missed?

Tonybugs

[AtGame7]

AtGame7 -

Where are you ?

$...eE..$

Pittsburgh

[AtGame7]

so what happens when shooter hits point? 2 points? 3? do you switch to pass?

What about after 4 hits? can you leave up numbers and press? not that $200 a shooter aint bad, but what about the big roll that gets missed?

Tonybugs

I don't sweat missing the big roll since so may rolls are of the shorter variety. I figure I am ahead on taking bets down before losing them all to the 7-out vs the money I miss on the big roll. If you have $xx inside, at whatever point you decide to take it down you would have to get three more inside number before taking it down was a costly play. I always feel as though the reason people don't make a ton of money at this game is because every bet is left out there till it dies. Take em down once in a while and it has to help the bottom line.