Something we all do, but should we?

[tonybugs]

We all press our bets the longer our rolls go. We increase our pass line bets and start maxing out on our odds. When we finally "out 7", there's alot more money on the felt than when we started, and most of the time, maybe too much!

I am usually around $75-90 on the felt after my point is established, but maybe after 3 or 4 points and 20-25 rolls later I have $250-300 on felt and when the rolls over a lot of my profit goes back to house.

Usually at the end of the session, we probably all wish we had pulled down a lot more of that money.

So my question to the experts is: Should our pass line and odds stay the same throughout the roll since that where we give back the most money? Example, I start with a $10 pass with $25 odds, but after 4 points I'll be at a $30 pass with $90-100 odds, which if I don't make wipes out my first to 2 wins.

tonybugs

[heavy]

MP has shared a lot of his research in this area through the years - topics including recovery stage betting - and comparing various press, regress, and same bet strategies against each other over various roll lengths. I'm sure he'll jump in with his thoughts on this - which will no doubt include his $204 across play. Of course, most of the guys around here know that I use certain indicators to turn my action off or bring it down. Clearly they don't always work, but when they do it's can be very sweet. I can think of more than one occasion when I've had my four or ten pressed up to $1000 and turned them off just before the seven reared it's ugly head. Personally, I think if you put a couple of bets out there that are within your comfort zone, take a couple of hits, then come down off them and wait for the next shooter - you'll probably be ahead over the long run. Most of us do not find that sort of play that engaging, which is why the regression style of play came into being. Play $30 six and eight for one hit - then regress to an $18 six and eight - same bet the next hit - then start your up and out routine. There are, of course, dozens of different regression approaches but that one is not a bad one of you can afford it. I kind of like using my inside action to "pay for" all of my bets before pressing - but pressing aggressively on the four and ten from the first hit. That can be very exciting. If you're going to play the pass line or don't pass only - I'd suggest using Sam Grafstein's press strategy. I posted about some of the Dice Doctor's plays here about a year ago: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=487

[Yazworm91]

This is what I struggle with more than anything. This is a main reason I lose more than I win(well a major factor I believe). Let me give an example from this weekend.

I am playing at sams town. A young lady is shooting and I throw out a 2$ ace/deuce and yo on the CO. She throws a yo. I take 16$ and down and put 17$ on the 5,6 and 8. So I only have 3$ invested in the hand and I decide ill press and move money around until I get it to 100$ across (if she rolls that long)and I told myself "then I'll bring it down". I don't remember the exact details of the roll but I do know I had about 101$ across when she 7 out. And I look down I think I had taken about 30-40$ In profit from payouts. Situations like this are what I struggle with I had just taken a 2$ bet and including what was on the table turned it into around 130-140$. Now who knows she could have kept throwing for the next hour after I turned or taken my bets off. Now to my next part I struggle with.

Now I'm also not afraid to get to a certain point and regress all my bets back to 27$ across if the roll has went long enough. I've realized over the past few months that I like a 5$ table but I'm not a 5$ bettor. Like I said I will regress back to a 5$ bet but now I start everything at 10/12$. And I'm ok with getting my bets on the table at 24/25$ and just taking the payout from that point on and that's usually just 1 full press on a number.

I have to decide on a stopping point on profit on a roll. Let's say if on any roller if I have a 6$ Or 12$ 6/8 and I've some how made a 40$ profit on the hand I bring all my bets down or go to 27$ across or something. But I have to come up with something to get this money off the table and actually stick with it lol

[Mad Professor]

Hi Yaz,

Proponents of the "Start-Small-and-Press-HARD" betting-methods will usually get all the ACTION they crave...but rarely have much PROFIT to show for it after a reasonable number of sessions.

The reason is very simple.

In a random-outcome game, the overwhelming number of shorter hands will swamp and erode any profit they make off of the long and extraordinary ones.

I know that's not what you want to hear, but it is what it is.

What's worse, is even in the case of skilled dice-influencers where that same "Start-Small-and-Press-HARD" betting-method will UNDER-EARN their in-casino validated advantage profit-potential by around -85%.

In other words, those skilled-shoters who employ the "Start-Small-and-Press-HARD" betting-method on their own de-randomized outcomes will generally under-earn their actual deserved profit-potential (based on their current average bet-value-to-7's-exposure) by around 700%.

If you want to 'discover' why skilled-shooters aren't earning what their validated in-casino advantage indicates they should be earning; you need look no further than HOW they bet.

MP

[Dave73]

I don't have the table time many here do, but from my experience I have found that when I try to press bets looking to jump on the monster roll I end up in a situation similar to what Yaz described, where more money is on the table when the seven shows than what I have made in profit. I can't say I don't press anymore but I wait until all the exposure is covered before doing so. I wouldn't say Im winning more but I do believe I am losing less with less bankroll volatility.

[Buy The Four]

A couple of things come into play in regards to pressing bets. I think the first question you have to ask yourself is:

What is my win goal?
I've begun to ask myself this question a lot more prior to sessions. If I reach my win goal during a session, then I have no problem pressing to the moon. On the other hand, if my win goal is on the layout, you bet your a$$ I'm coming down on my action to lock up my session win.

Heavy also brought up an excellent point that I'd like to reiterate. Look for the "signs" and listen to your "inner" voice. When a hand starts to take off, I look for negative indicators to turn my bets off. We all get better at recognizing these signs the more we play.

Finally, I seek out $25 tables. Why? Because they are less crowded and I am less prone to press at that level because I am already collecting at the green chip level. Also, the players are generally more knowledgeable at higher level tables which make for a fast smooth game.

[rhythm roller]

BTF,

Great points! Thanks for the insight!

[Yazworm91]

Yea btf when I'm collecting green is where I'm good at. So I'm going to have to come up with a number for each turn that I'm cool with collecting all the money that I'm up or bringing it all the way back to minimum. I also have to come up with a win goal.

[AtGame7]

Something I have come to realize is that I see a lot of player (I means a lot) who lose because every bet is left out there to die. It really is that simple. We all want to be on the big roll, and that IMO is among the reasons the casino wins (at least more than it should).

While missing that big roll does suck, we should be asking ourselves how many times that big roll comes along and how much we really make on it compared to the losses along the way chasing it?

What if you decided that you wanted to make two betting units per shooter, that's it? Could you find a way to give yourself a chance at that? I think so. Not that I think I can make myself a favorite over the house, but I think I have a better chance of trying to win two units per shooter than I do surviving swinging for the fences every roll waiting for the big one.

[Yazworm91]

Something I have come to realize is that I see a lot of player (I means a lot) who lose because every bet is left out there to die. It really is that simple.

This is another bad habit I've got back into.