I need some help with this strategy

[mogul397]

mycoalsmith

I spent years if not decades going to casinos and writing down results for
mostly roulette, and toward the end some craps. I would take trips and not
make a single bet. Just to gather data. And would have all the sheets at home
to sit like a moron a try something on one sheet and then the other.

There was also a time when I watched pp on horses and had piles of newspapers
for two years

At one of my trips to Twin River (when I went to see the new table games there
in the last few months) there was a guy to claimed to be a pro/junkie of sorts saying
that he "lived at Foxwood", like he had enough action to actually live there.

He had a $100 sleeve of reds. His "signal" to bet was a DP. Then he bet DP.
If he won, he bet DP again and hedged with any 7,yo,11 out of his winnings.
It is a $10 table and I think he bet $15. Flat bets. That kind of thing. When I
left he had $200 I think. It was a slow grind. But last time I was there I saw 2-3
pretty long don't runs. No reason a coin flip can't be a run. Either way.

I have watched and liked the feel of this. I don't like the hedge part.
Mr C (Al Coggins) does his 2-3 don'ts then pass system. Every time I watch
that in my head the don't seem to turn into a streak.

So my head is in that direction lately.

[arrgy]

Going back to the originial post..

Place betting is an art form of its own, and I think of it as its own special game that is part of craps but is really separate.

I can only tell you the way I play after three decades of experience. But first, take a pair of dice...set one die aside, and roll the other one. That roll just had a one in six chance of being a 7 regardless of whatever the other die was. Keep that in mind. I work with simple numbers and simple chips. I am a simple person.

$160 or $170 in if 4 or 10 is the point, then I stick with either Uptown on the 10 or Downtown on the 4.

Two hits per number (75 for 5) then everything down. Wait for the next shooter. If I shoot, then its three numbers (since my 7:1 to ratio is documented around 8.5) since I want to recoup my PL bet.

Here is the kicker, if while I am waiting for a seven out someone goes on a long roll of more than 15 numbers. I don't bet the next shooter. Generally the next shooter will seven out real quick to balance the law of averages.

Why $160? Because two hits pays for the bet. There have been many times that I have walked up to a table with $500 gotten down to my last chip and walked away with more than $2000 because of discipline. You can not win at this game unless you take your money off the table. Most people who parlay or press either never take away any money or take away a small fraction of it. Being a don't player I have seen countless shooters hit 10 or 15 inside numbers, and people walk away with nothing from that shooter.

Like my wife always says...you can't keep it up forever, at some point it just goes limp.

[mogul397]

arrgy.

Funny thing. For a simple person, your reply seemed pretty
complicated to me.

I am not sure what you are betting on or what uptown or
downtown is.

[mogul397]

So based what you said and arrgs description, could
you play craps betting place bets the way he does?

[rollmeasy]

I've read a few versions of the Hedge Hog. Here's one:

$15 DP. You can chose to hedge or not. Or do a lay bet on the come out, then take down the lay.

After point is established place the 6 & 8 for $18 each.

First hit on 6 or 8 you rack. Now you're covered against a 7 out.
Next hit on 6 or 8 , place the 5 & 9 for $10 ea.
Now rack all hits til decision.

Downside:
PSO with no hits, -$21.
Shooter makes his point, then 7s out. If you didn't take your 6&8 down, -$51.
The 6 or 8 is the point. Then it's kind of a wash, unless the non point hits first.
If the shooter makes his point, you have to make a decision to stay up on your place bets or not.

Best scenerio:
4 or 10 is the point. You get all inside numbers up, then lots of inside hits before 7 out on the 4 or 10.

When i have a $15 Match Play Coupon, I'll do this play sometimes, and match my $15 DP with the coupon. Never seems to pan out the way I want.
Anymore, I tend to pick the Do or Don't side and go with it. No hedge.