dont pass-worth it or not?

[Mad Professor]

In a RANDOM-outcome game, ODDS (both Rightside as well as Darkside); neither help nor hurt your overall net-profit. They are a zero-sum gain.

With that said, it should also be pointed out that in a RANDOM-outcome game, ODDS increase bankroll-volatility regardless of whether they are employed on the Rightside or the D-side.

Now, are DP-Odds effective and do they add to your Dice-Influenced profits?

Of course they are and of course they do.

When shooting from the Darkside, my same three advantage-play verities still hold true:

~The higher your DP-Odds…the more your dice-influencing skills are leveraged in your favor.

~The higher your DP-Odds…the fewer times you’ll have to throw a PL-Point loser in order to recover (to break-even) from a previous PL-Point repeater.

~The higher your DP-Odds…the quicker your dice-influenced outcomes will double and then keep re-doubling your bankroll.



MP

[grafstein]

Golfer,

if you get any don't bet past the CO, you are either a 6 to 5 or a 3 to 2 or a 2 to 1 favorite. This is the position the house is in versus a right bettor after the CO. The bettor has to take odds to have a fighting chance. There is a post on this forum pointing out that the house seldom tells the right bettor about free odds as it CUTS DOWN THE HOUSE PC.

A wrong bettor is the house. Golfer, be the house.

[grafstein]

Mad Professor,

the Doctor is in. Please take a seat.

You need to hear this: Any shooter who believes that they can at the very least keep dice on axis, should NEVER shoot from the Dark Side.

If you do not understand that you have to pass the dice following a seven, hit the restart button. The point of holding the dice as a dice controller or influencer is that you can hold the dice for lonngggg rolls. A wrong shooter can have 7 rolls? Oh, hitting small craps a lot lol.

I will point out the all-sevens and hardway sets. If you insist on shooting from the dark side, all the craps and the easy 4 & 10 combinations are not in the distribution. That means the hedge strategy I outlined (which is very old and not mine) has an extremely low failure possibility.

Now do a simulation. Take your whole bankroll and imagine your shooting prowess has you with the DP and five DC. figure how much would be the bet and how big the odds. How much did you seven out win you? Compare that to how much you would have won with all that odds money as a pure DP/DC bet. Or, consider how big each of the pure don't bets would have had to be to return what the with odds bets did. It would have required much less of your capital.

[Mad Professor]

Mad Professor,

the Doctor is in. Please take a seat.

You need to hear this: Any shooter who believes that they can at the very least keep dice on axis, should NEVER shoot from the Dark Side.

If you do not understand that you have to pass the dice following a seven, hit the restart button. The point of holding the dice as a dice controller or influencer is that you can hold the dice for lonngggg rolls.

Hi there,

I guess you and I will have to agree to disagree on that point.

You say: "The point of holding the dice as a dice controller or influencer is that you can hold the dice for lonngggg rolls."

...and I say that the objective of a dice-influencer is to leverage his de-randomizing skills to make as much MONEY as OFTEN as possible.

As I've always maintained, that it is far quicker, far easier, and far less volatile for a modestly skilled dice-influencer to reach profitability as a Darkside-shooter than it is for a comparably skilled player to do it from the Rightside.

Of course Darkside shooting is much less sexy and it doesn't make for good M-board headlines ("WOW, it only took me TWO rolls to throw an intentional 7-Out...and I held the dice for 40 SECONDS!!!"); but it sure can bring in a reliably consistent amount of dough.

By focusing all of your per-hand money on the ONE single number where you have the strongest Darkside edge (which happens to be the one number that is already most-dominant in the game of craps itself); you give your current D-I skills a chance to show their effectiveness, while at the same time improving your money-making efficiency.

I'll be the first to admit that D-side shooting doesn't suit everyone's temperament, and it does take a certain amount of open-mindedness to even consider it; but when you consider how little additional influence it takes to make D-side shooting net-profitable, the between-shooting-intervals question becomes far less important.

For me, the question isn't how LONG your current D-I skills let you hold the dice; but rather how much MONEY you can reliably EARN in the process.

In essence (and in my best Jack Kennedy impression), ask not what your SKILLS can do for you; but rather, what YOU can do with your skills.



MP

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!If you can win on the come out, why sweat the 7 ? UNHH!!That is the reason for the Horn Hi-3 plus the two unit pass line bet. UNHH!!Of 16 on axis possibilities there are 10 winners and 6 place numbers; off axis two more 7 winners UNHH!!When BC win place # they set off fireworks

When JFK said that, BC think-that guy just promised something for nothing to everyone including the CHI Mafia

[Golfer]

Grafstein,

I think there are a couple of points to clarify in this discussion.

"You need to hear this: Any shooter who believes that they can at the very least keep dice on axis, should NEVER shoot from the Dark Side."

MP addressed this in the correct context. Keeping the dice on axis is not a key to success. It is a part, but not an end to itself.

"The size of your DP bet dictates the size of the hedge."
"A wrong bettor is the house. Golfer, be the house."
"The point of holding the dice as a dice controller or influencer is that you can hold the dice for lonngggg rolls. A wrong shooter can have 7 rolls? Oh, hitting small craps a lot lol."


1. You indicate laying odds dillutes profits....yet you suggest hedging. Hedging dilutes profits. Laying odds does not. Also, the simple fact you get established on the DP does not guarantee a win.
2. Long rolls do not happen everytime a DI touches the dice. In fact, on average, rolls last somewhere between 4-5 rolls. MP has that stat somewhere.
3. Darkside shooting offers DI's an easier path to profit. Why, because of the prevelance of the 7 in the game.

I am not a math guy, but your other statement about the house not advertising free odds is not accurate. The House wants as much money on the table as possible. That's where they make their money the HA. Why doesn't every casino offer 1000 times odds? Because owners are humans and have their own comfort zones. They also operate in the real world with competition and try to stay in the zone of the place next door. Do the high odds places get whacked at times? Yes.

One more point on the supposed dilution issue on the Don't. You clearly state that an established DP or DC has an advantage. Why don't you think adding to that advantage is a good idea?
You think odds on rightside PL or Come bets are beneficial. Why not on the darkside? The answer is in your personal preferences and/or comfort zone. It is not in the math of the game.

"If you do not understand that you have to pass the dice following a seven, hit the restart button."
You probably did not intend that to rub anyone the wrong way with that line, but it could. You have found a site with more craps knowledge than anywhere on the web. It is unnecessary to school anyone on what happens after a 7 out.

Good Luck

Golfer

[Dylanfreake]

I bet the DP and I am betting against the House.

When I lose it is the house that takes my money and puts it in their bank. When I win I take the house`s chips and put them in my rake.

I don`t know anyone in a casino that is betting in partnership with the casino.

I don`t play the Rightside but maybe it is the rightside players that are in cohoots with the house.

[grafstein]

I will respond out of order to Darkcloud: hunhh?

[heavy]

Well, I've been away from the computer all day so I missed our new member Grafstein's first post on the forum. Sooo, without further adieu let me say "welcome to the forum," and "be prepared to hear a lot of discussion" on your subject.

Everyone has pretty much landed on the things I'd hit on, but I'll go ahead and hit a little summary.

First off, laying odds does not dilute your Don't bet. A $25 Don't Pass bet wins $25 when it wins. A $30 (example) free odds bet is paid at true odds and as MP has noted, is ultimately a zero sum game UNLESS the shooter is a dice influencer shooting from the Don'ts. An age old argument on this point - if you took that $55 and bet it on the Don't Pass you'd win $55 as opposed to having a $25DP on the nine with $30 odds and winning $45. This is true. The rub comes in when you have that $55 DP bet up there and the seven or eleven kills it on the Come Out. Now, if you really want to play $55 and get paid even money for it another approach might be to play a $30 DP, establish that bet, then follow it with a $25 DC. That way you'd be guaranteed a profit on a second roll seven. You'd end up with $55 established on the Don'ts. Negative - you've increased your point number exposure to two numbers instead of one. Positive - you can't get knocked off both numbers on one toss of the dice. Now, John Patrick is a personal friend of mine and I'm a HUGE fan, but there are a few areas where he and I disagree - and laying odds versus not laying odds is one of them. Note that I don't ALWAYS lay odds - but if a table is trending toward the Don'ts, I'll make continuous DC bets with odds on every one of them.

Now, on the subject of shooting from the Don'ts. I agree with you that a DI's big advantage comes from shooting from the right side, tossing long hands and making points - under the condition that the table is cooperating and the playing conditions are good. All too many DI's end up playing in prime time, on crowded table where conditions are terrible and the dice take forever to get back to them. Despite the poor conditions, this guy's best shot at making money is probably going to be to catch a hand. But if a player can get on the table in off hours so the dice come back to him quickly there are few stronger ways to play than shooting from the Don'ts. First of all, you stay completely under the radar. The house sweats those long hands where the table is dumping. Secondly, since the dice come back to you over and over and over, you get lots of opportunities to chip away at the cheese. Years ago I did a seminar in Vegas were everyone checked in with their win/loss record every day. The big winner? A don't player from Canada who went to Four Queens - one of the sweatiest casinos downtown at the time, and played early bird sessions from 6 - 8AM when he had the table all to himself. He won every session - and he won big.

In any case, this is an age old argument that will continue as long as the game is played the way it is. Everyone has their own opinion on how play it. Odds are I'll make a lone wolf run to the casinos early next week. Odds are I'll play the Don'ts most of the day. Ain't we got fun.

Again, welcome to the forum - and thanks for jumping in immediately and posting.

[grafstein]

dammit, Heavy. I had written for about 15 minutes replying to MP and lost it when I was distracted by your welcome.

Hell, I already felt wanted and warm.

Sorry to see my point about dilution was misunderstood. I mean the total bet returns less than it should.

My strong suggestion for wrong bettors is to stop laying "free" odds.

I will cut to the chase by using Mad Professor's non-sexy two-roll forty seconds and out technique.

You describe a crowded casino where the DI has limited touches.

The DI get the dice five times. He sets a point of 6 with a $25 DP and odds of $240. He repeats the 6 for a loss. Then he has five consecutive (the times he is the shooter) rolls with 6 as point followed by seven out. The net is $900.

The table is getting hostile, so he moves. Coincidence smiles and he gets the same rolls exactly, but he heard me nagging and placed a $265 DP each time. One loss and five wins left him ahead $1060.

[grafstein]

Dylanfreake,

you can't get my goat pretending to be obtuse.

[grafstein]

Golfer,

I believe Heavy agreed with a caveat. I accept that

My original reply was to the OP who admits to being a poker player rather than a dice setter. Since he does not have skills like MP, he needs the hedge.

The large bet vs small bet with max odds hypothesis I espouse requires the hedge
for any shooter without better than average control. And they should use it too with an "all sevens" or "hardway" set. The reason for that corollary is it will give a skilled shooter two bet when they make a DC following the DP.

Imagine how much Mad Prof would have made in the example I sent to Heavy if there were two bets rather than one.

[Mad Professor]

The DI get the dice five times. He sets a point of 6 with a $25 DP and odds of $240. He repeats the 6 for a loss. Then he has five consecutive (the times he is the shooter) rolls with 6 as point followed by seven out. The net is $900.

The table is getting hostile, so he moves. Coincidence smiles and he gets the same rolls exactly, but he heard me nagging and placed a $265 DP each time. One loss and five wins left him ahead $1060.

G, your above-noted "Perfect World Casino" scenario is valid, but what happens when the Sheriff (the 7) and/or his Deputy (the 11) show up during the Come-Out of any of those hands.

~By staging a wager on the Don't Pass line, the Darksider is at a distinct -72.7% to +27.3% DISadvantage during the Come-Out.

Now I know you already know that, so there's no need to sit you at a desk to school you ; but it's an element that most "Don't-use-Don't-Odds" guys (perhaps intentionally) overlook when they are espousing the virtues of not using DP-Odds in a positive-expectation dice-influenced game.

~When you factor in the possibility of instant-decision Come-Out results (which occur 30.5% of the time during the C-O); things start to take on an entirely different complexion.

To fully understand this, we first have to take a look at what generally happens during randomly-produced Come-Out cycles to see what typically happens. In that case:

~There is a 30.5% chance that a random-roller will throw at least ONE instant-decision number that affects the Don't Pass bettor. Of those decisions, 27.3% will go in the DP's favor (by way of the 2 and/or 3)...and 72.7% will go against him (by way of the 7 and/or 11).

~There is an additional 9.3% chance that a random-roller will throw TWO instant-decision numbers that affects the Don't Pass bettor. Of those decisions, only 27.3% of THOSE will go in the DP's favor (by way of the 2 and/or 3)...and fully 72.7% will go AGAINST him (by way of the 7 and/or 11).

~There is another 2.8% chance that a random-roller will throw THREE instant-decision numbers that affects the Don't Pass bettor. Of those decisions, only 27.3% of those will go IN the DP's favor (by way of the 2 and/or 3)...and fully 72.7% will still go against him (by way of the 7 and/or 11).

I know you know where this is leading right?

~The MORE money the D-sider has exposed during the Come-Out cycle; the higher his chances of losing it (-72.7% versus +27.3% more than 30% of the time).

~The MORE money the D-sider has exposed during the Point-cycle; the higher his chances of winning it (+60% to win versus -40% to lose).



MP

[grafstein]

?nakeEye$,

is there something we disagree on?

As far as dice-setting goes, there are very good ones, some that stay on axis and many who are WTF.

The very good ones should shoot right as the ability to progressively add to their odds can pay off big. This is opposed to the dice influencer who has yet to master control who may be better off if s/he can stay on axis using specific dice-sets from the dark side.

The use of odds plays a huge part in right side. It should be cut out so long as the DI is shooting. If anyone above the level of WTF possibly is better off IF THEY CANNOT WAIT FOR THE DICE TO RETURN.

[grafstein]

MP,

are you bringing this up for others, or did I misunderstand your level of dice-setting ability?

I am working from my cell, a bit tired and the ad/hd can lead me to forget some things so I will hit two points.

Getting by the 7 is the biggie. Often, it can be avoided using the hedge I first described for the OP. Not perfect, but it will lower those percentages against you; more so if you can use influence from a low seven set.

Once a bettor gets his DP past the seven, his position does reverse those number, and he does want as much money in play as possible. If you run simulations you will see the best way is larger DP wagers and not odds.

[Mad Professor]

If you run simulations you will see the best way is larger DP wagers and not odds.

Okay, I'll bite. Please show me the correct math, and the error of my wayward ways.


MP

[grafstein]

don't need no stinkin' math.

If you don't have a simulator, just keep track of your playing. When you are done, relive the moment...would you have made more on your rolls my way.

Intellectual inertia is seldom overcome by numbers placed on a screen by others.

If you are good enough to throw dice in a way that you get a point then a seven, the proof is in my answer to Heavy. If you can keep dice on axis, read what I said about the hedge method with the proper dice set: a set that has a 1/6 axis on both cubes has no craps, no 4s and no 10s in the distribution.

[grafstein]

$,

Heavy made a case for a busy casino being a place best for a wrong shooter. I accepted that. My worst case is because the longer you roll the more guys show making bets all over slowing stuff dramatically. But I hold that in the perfect casino, a skilled setter should always shoot right.

This should get it's own thread if this has not been thrashed out before.

[Mad Professor]

don't need no stinkin' math.

If you don't have a simulator, just keep track of your playing. When you are done, relive the moment...would you have made more on your rolls my way.

Intellectual inertia is seldom overcome by numbers placed on a screen by others.

Okay, I admit I might look a little slow; but I'm not quite as dense as my writing makes me appear, so help me out here.

You say that we don't need math.

Ironically, that's not the first time I've heard that from a craps player; but it is the first time that I've heard someone say "If you run simulations you will see the best way is larger DP wagers and not odds." and then refuse to show HOW a large no-Odds DP will outwin a small DP w/high-Odds wager because it would...wait for it...'involve math'.

Come on, you're pulling my leg right?!

However, if you really are serious, I would LOVE to learn how good (and profitable) those randomly-generated large no-Odds DP's out-earn equal-total-value small DP w/high-Odds wagers.


MP

[wudged]

don't need no stinkin' math.

If you don't have a simulator, just keep track of your playing. When you are done, relive the moment...would you have made more on your rolls my way.

Intellectual inertia is seldom overcome by numbers placed on a screen by others.

If you are good enough to throw dice in a way that you get a point then a seven, the proof is in my answer to Heavy. If you can keep dice on axis, read what I said about the hedge method with the proper dice set: a set that has a 1/6 axis on both cubes has no craps, no 4s and no 10s in the distribution.

Putting aside this claim that craps doesn't need math....

The set you are referring to is commonly know as the hardways set, and has the hard 4 and hard 10 on axis.