Observational patterns

[pman11198]

In reading the new newsletter, there is a section on some observed superstitions. Are there any patterns that you have observed on the table?

Like some in which i have seen is:

Hard 10ʻs seems to hit with a point of 5.
Craps occur in 3ʻs
11 and 12 seems to follow a 2

these are just some simple observations. Anymore not on the superstitions list that helps give an advantage?

[freak]

I used to think there were several patterns that appeared regularly. But since we've been recording our in casino rolls we've let go of most of these. In our data the seven comes just as often after an 8 as after it does a 10 or 3. I no longer turn off if the dice go off the table or if the cocktail waitress comes by. I will turn off if there is a considerable change in table energy, like a big argument between players or the box and a player. This weekend a player was really beratting a dealer. "Wake up. Get your head in the game. We've hear to play not hear about your home life, so shut up and deal." That was just plain uncomfortable so we not only turned off we left.

The number one pattern, proven by our recorded statistics, that I really try to follow now is this:

1) Most hands are very short.

If I'm going to play then put up enough bets to give myself a reasonable chance to break even within 3-4 rolls. If my bet numbers don't hit quickly then take the bets down and live to fight another day. If my good numbers do come quick, regress and take some profit, then proceed cautiously and hope to catch that long roll that is NOT the pattern but is the abnormal event we all dream of.

[Bankerdude80]

I used to see patterns emerge every now and then, but having the inclination to think rationally I currently give it little credence (not that I'm always rational). I think Heavy calls it the "Illusion of Control". I used to think that a hard eight result would produce a seven-out on the next roll, others (method) say when the result is a hard ten the next roll is a seven. Another is that dice showing a nine face up presented by the stickman and tossed by a shooter ends in a field or horn number, or an eight is followed by boxcars. Other patterns include changes in the "energy dynamic" at the table (i.e. new player drops cash on table, dice off the table, etc). Seeing these would occasionally reaffirm the pattern. As I thought more about the patterns, I would pay closer attention and realize not every pattern ends in the same previously predicted result. Therefore, I ignore the patterns and just play the game. If I get a strong "feeling" or intuitive state, I might on a rare occasion call my bets off. I was playing at Ballys once and a guy was calling off his bets at every change in the "energy" at the table, then turn the bets on. This action resulted in him not getting paid on several bets and I ended up making good money on the roll, he did not. Maybe other times he has saved his action by calling the bets off. Who am I to say? I just figure let him play his game, I'll play mine. I did find it very disruptive at the table because he was rather passionate at calling his bets off. Patterns? maybe, maybe not. I'm curious to know what the math guys think.

[Mad Professor]

Gamblers are ALWAYS looking for patterns in random outcomes...and they often see them; but mostly after-the-fact.

We call that bias-confirmation.

The casinos love players like that because random-walk 'patterns' (just like trends and streaks) are always in some stage of either formation or disbandment.

That's the nature of random outcomes, and that's part of what the casinos are counting on to suck players in...they WANT players to follow their false notions, hunches, and superstitions. For random-outcome gamblers, the chase is often far more important than the actual catch...and casinos know that that's what keeps them coming back again and again.

To justify and rationalize that negative-expectation pursuit, some gamblers come up with all kinds of false-premise beliefs about one randomly-tossed number always following another, and so on...and that's EXACTLY what the casinos hope EVERY random-bettor will do. That's how the casinos make their money.


MP

[gargoil]

The only thing / one to observe is you. Forget about all the other nonsense. It will drive you crazy.
Here are my quick thoughts (Things I started doing lately)
- Observing random players throwing the dice is a waste of time. Shouldn't have money on the table except if you are playing dark side
- Observing rolls and outcome after the rolls is a waste of time. A seven can come after a 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 or 12
Instead try this
- Observe your rolls and the up / down of the quality. If you start getting poor quality (dice landing weird, trash numbers) turn your bets off (Be on the safe side)
- If your mind starts to wander right before throwing more than once, turn your bets off
- If for one second you feel anything about the next throw you are about to make, turn your bets off
- If you start thinking about your throw and what you can do to modify it in order to get a certain number or in a certain spot (like you do during practice at home) turn off your bets. You are at the table with real money not at home practicing. Practice time is over.

All these are signs that you are not in your zone.

[Golfer]

"If for one second you feel anything about the next throw you are about to make, turn your bets off"

It is not supposed to be true, according to the Math. However, this is a real piece of wisdom.

Golfer

[realtime]

The only thing / one to observe is you. Forget about all the other nonsense. It will drive you crazy.
Here are my quick thoughts (Things I started doing lately)
- Observing random players throwing the dice is a waste of time. Shouldn't have money on the table except if you are playing dark side
- Observing rolls and outcome after the rolls is a waste of time. A seven can come after a 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 or 12
Instead try this
- Observe your rolls and the up / down of the quality. If you start getting poor quality (dice landing weird, trash numbers) turn your bets off (Be on the safe side)
- If your mind starts to wander right before throwing more than once, turn your bets off
- If for one second you feel anything about the next throw you are about to make, turn your bets off
- If you start thinking about your throw and what you can do to modify it in order to get a certain number or in a certain spot (like you do during practice at home) turn off your bets. You are at the table with real money not at home practicing. Practice time is over.

All these are signs that you are not in your zone.

So Gargoil,

Are you saying playing the dark side against a random roller is still not a neg ex game??

[wild child]

One gambling book author wrote that it is unwise to be the first shooter
on a newly opened( RE-OPENED) craps table.......

His reasoning was that the table most likely had closed
promptly after the last player haven SEVENED OUT...thus the craps table
harbored some bug-a-boo and would be a BAD TABLE or UNSETTLED
until some number of loosing hands had been tossed...Thus only play on a craps table
filled with players who had been there for some time......

I found issue with that mindset even before I became interested in D I and only
wagered on other players dice tossing.....
..
Reality check :

.....40 roll hands are witnessed far less frequently than 20 roll hands..

Hands in duration of EIGHT to TWELVE tosses of the dice seem to outnumber
hands consisting of twenty(20) and greater number(s) of tosses
.
Craps hands in duration of eight and lesser numbers of tosses
seem by empirical observation , to out number the number of dice toss hands
of greater number(s) of tosses.......
....
The above is not to rain on anybody's parade...
...not science.
..just empirical.observation by me..
I AM IN NO WAY AN AUTHORITY

The much ballyhooed WORLD RECORD LONGEST 147 roll(toss) craps hand was flung by a total DICE NOVICE
...
Another aside from the UNIVERSITY OF EMPIRICAL Non Science...

Runs of four (4) back to back PASS LINE REPEATERS( WINNERS) seem to
.
occur
.
with near THE SAME FREQUENCY as runs of FOUR(4) DON'T PASS LINE ( D/P ) WINNERS

and I stated SEEMINGLY to leave room because my empirical observation may differ
from another person's by far more scientific observation(s)

Since trends and runs( which "could " be shorter) are fleeting,it comes down to choosing
when of even THE if to taking a chance.....in this sport........

The best time to quit is when you recognize you are a winner......

The second best time to call a halt is when you become aware you are winning
less than you were earlier winning..........

The most worst time to quit is after you have lost everything

and

must leave a miserable poorer for having played looser.

Just me saying

W C

[gargoil]

@Realtime
I have been known to place a small bet on DP / DC at a table with random shooters.
I know I will be shot for saying this on the forum but I learned the HARD WAY (Many $$$ lost) to bet and trust me at the table.
I exercise extreme caution with other shooters including other DI at the table. Nothing against them just my way of approach.

[pman11198]

MP you hit it on the head, bias confirmation......it brings about predetermined failure, a mirage of sorts. lol

BUT, as much as skill is a determinant is on influence, there is also a sequential pattern to the randomness, i believe. Its an awareness thing.

"If for one second you feel anything about the next throw you are about to make, turn your bets off"

I get the feeling as soon as the dice leaves my hands. arrrgh