Hedging the Fire all the way to the bank

[luxlogs]

I made a fire bet once. It was on Golfer, even though it lost I still feel it was a smart and well thought out wager. If I get the chance I will probably do it again.

[Mad Professor]

I think it's critically important to DIFFERENTIATE the wagers you make on SKILLED shooters versus the wagers you make on RANDOM shooters.

Would I likely wager the Fire-bet on most of the members here or on the Dice Institute message-board?

YES!

Do I ever wager the Fire-bet on random-rollers?

NO!

There IS a difference. Now granted, oftentimes that difference is miniscule; but sometimes that difference is 'just enough' to make the F-bet net-profitable when wagered on skilled (non-random) shooters.


MP

[CrapsGenius]

I like that quote "Actually I take that back. You did invent a system. It just sucks." I really do.

But for me. I don't mind the "Grind" it beats working a real job for just above minimum wage.

[luxlogs]

How do you place a Fire Bet without a Line Bet first?

[heavy]

Okay, so how many of you who are dice influencers actually know what your positive expectation is on the bets you make most often? What is that positive edge? What is your blended edge over the game based on a composite of all the bets you make? What percentage of your hands generate a first level (four points) fire bet win? What percentage generate a second level (five points) fire bet win? What percentage generates the full fire bet monty? Establish and make all six numbers. Anyone actually KNOW?

[Mad Professor]

Hi SnakeEyes,

We have to use random-expectation to first establish the 'base' for any wager whether it be the Fire-bet or a simple Place-bet. From there, a discussion of relative-influence can begin.

The charts for various SRR-rates and influence-rates above random are found in my Fire-bet thread over on the Dice Institute m-board, wherein we take an in-depth look at such DI-influenced issues such as:

~How Often Will DI-influenced Fire-Bet Wins Contain Multiple SAME-Number PL-Points?

~How Likely will Variously-skilled DI's Produce DIFFERENT PL-Point Repeaters in the Same Hand?

~How OFTEN Are Variously-skilled DI's Likely to Produce a Fire-Bet Winner?

~Sniping-Out DI-influenced Fire-bet Points

Unfortunately, transferring all those charts from that site's format into this site's format can be a bit problematic. So, the info you are looking for does exist, however, it doesn't currently exist on this site.



MP

[CrapsGenius]

I felt very bad for the shooter this morning who made 5 numbers to the fire and established the 6th point on the 9 and could not roll it. Why is it when you look at the chip tray of the good shooter, there is hardly any chips, meanwhile here we all are with 2k-3k in our trays. its so sad, I kind of want to tip the shooter some times. Firebet paid off again this morning. hope to see more tomorrow after breakfast.

[London Shooter]

To answer your question Heavy, from my own hands alltime:

Percentage generating a 4 point firebet: 0.1
Percentage generating a 5 point firebet: 0
Percentage generating a 6 point firebet: 0

[CrapsGenius]

it pays the bills. Yup it sux.

[CrapsGenius]

To answer your question Heavy, from my own hands alltime:

Percentage generating a 4 point firebet: 0.1
Percentage generating a 5 point firebet: 0
Percentage generating a 6 point firebet: 0

Is my local casino the only casino to have shooters throw multiple firebets on a daily basis?

maybe that's why i'm getting negative responses on this topic. Or maybe People are not seeing it's there because they don't play.

[Mad Professor]

I was actually saving this one until I hit my next 6-point Fire; but who knows when that will be. Sure, lots of non-hedged 4-pointers, and quite a few 5-pointers in the meantime; but frankly it seems like unicorns still romped on the prairies since the last time I hit a 6-point F-bet winner on my own shooting.





MP

[CrapsGenius]

The odds against making all 6 separate box-number points is 6156:1

I can see 1500:1 to make a 6 number firebet.

The stats listed in this thread post is so wrong.

When a hot roller makes his first point, the chance do become more dificult as the points are made, then more chances of repeating numbers. When I face shooters rolling and making firbet numbers, the most i've seen is approx 5 repeated numbers before 6th one is established and rolled.

back in Jan 1st 2014, there was a shooter who had the dice rolled every number (12 being his last) if they offered the "All or nothing he would have won it rolling all numbers with only 4 repeated points before making the 6 number fire.

Average hot shooter making the fire has the dice approx 1hr. Divided 2 minutes per roll that equals 30-35 numbers rolled. That is a more realistic stat to calculate the fire. Every visit to the casino I face shooters rolling 3 points at least 10 times in a 4hr period and at least 3 of those 10 will establish the 4th number to fire giving me the opportunity to Hedge $120 on that 4th point. Allthough many will not make that firebet, I see 6 number fire at least once per month.

[heavy]

CG - I appreciate your posts, but you appear to be pulling your math out of your . . . hat. If you're only seeing one roll every two minutes then the tables must be packed with old farts who argue over every payout and have littered the prop boxes with dollars they can't keep track of. Your dealers must be break-in newbies whose native language is NOT English. And your understanding of statistics is woefully underdeveloped. Sorry, my friend. It just is what it is. Nevertheless, we're enjoying your posts.

London Shooter - I had my tongue in cheek when I asked who knew what their stats were when it came to their advantage over the game, the various bets, et al. I didn't expect anyone to answer because I seriously doubt that there are more than half a dozen forum members who know.

Thanks for posting guys.

[wudged]

Besides the math already shown, you can also check out http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/#firebet which does coincide with what was posted.

[gargoil]

CG.. Are you on drugs?? Can you send some my way?

[wudged]

Very interesting - after looking at 12+ inches of snow and still looking at another potential 4- 6 inches overnight

Looking!? I spent 3 hours today shoveling that shit, only to see the same 4-6 inches coming down on top of my (once) bare pavement/concrete/deck.

I'll probably be tarred and feathered for this, but here goes:

I honestly don't know about the fire bet; it has a huge edge to overcome. Theoretically a person with enough skill could, but I don't know that it's possible (unless you play wherever CrapsGenius plays, since apparently it hits at a 5% [100 / (2000 + 100)] rate instead of the expected 1%)

Of course if you have developed enough of an edge over your other bets on the table, and are making sufficient sized bets, that $5-$10 fire bet is really just peanuts and still lets you have the thrill of going for that big win.

In response to your other question to MP about why he posts calculations using "random" expectation, it is to put things into perspective of how difficult it would be to turn those bets into a positive expectation. I think this is mostly lost on the forum, as, and I mean no offense to anybody here, unfortunately there aren't a lot of mathematically inclined people who follow along with what he is saying.

As Heavy alluded to, how many people here have attempted to actually calculate the edge they have over a specific bet? I was PMing with another member a few days ago about this very issue. The thing is, it's nearly impossible to do unless you are playing on a daily basis and have tons of data to back it up.

This member was asking me for some help with Bone Tracker, which I gladly provided. I love BT and all the hard work that Maddog, MP, and everybody else put into it - but everybody puts too much faith in it with their at home sessions. These may or, more likely, may not reflect your live casino sessions. Sure, you threw 7200 rolls and have a 7.4% advantage on the buy-4. Great!

First off, does anybody here even know what that means, or how to use it to make money? Second, whose to say these results are going to be duplicated when you have real money and not play chips on the line? Lastly, how long did it take you to record those 7200 rolls? 2-3 months? How can you assume those rolls from 2 months ago reflect how you toss now? There are just way way too many variables.

I don't want to speak for irish, but in another thread he was asked why his comments are so condescending. I often feel the same way as he does, and to be honest, I'm not sure I can think of a time where I haven't agreed with him, but usually just keep my mouth shut as I'm here to try to learn and get along with everybody. It does get tiring hearing the same old "5-count saves you money," "martingale is sure to work," "the 3v is more likely to seven out than the 2v," so on and so on myths that seem to continually revive from the grave every few weeks.

I realize there are lots of new members who are just discovering this site and getting into craps in general, but it just seems that a lot of them do not bother reading all the extensive information that is available - neither here nor elsewhere. By the way, I was posting that link to wizard of odds specifically for Craps"Genious" since he doesn't seem to believe what MP posted, and I can't seem to post enough links to his site. At least once a month somebody is asking some math question and it's almost always detailed in full there already.

Anyway, that's enough for me from my soapbox. Fire away.

[Golfer]

Wudged,
Look on the bright side.........you could be living here in Chicagoland. 61+ inches of heaven's love this year.


Golfer

[wudged]

Heaven's love, ha, good one!

At least Chicago has the know-how and ability to clear the snow! However, I was astounded earlier when a plow came down my road. The last time it snowed like this, it was 5 days before I could leave the house..

[wild child]

..
Thank you Wudged,

Craps Side Bets

Last Update: Dec. 28, 2013

I lifted these from The Wizard of Odds site




7 Point 7/Double Trip Seven
All Bet
Card Craps
Crapless Craps
Fire Bet
Four Rolls no Seven
Golden Dice Challenge
Hot Roller
Low Dice, High Dice
Midway Bet
Point Seven
Replay
Sharp Shooter
Small, Tall Bet
Twice as Nice
Pete and Repeat
Place the Hard Ways
Double D
Broad Bar 12

The listing is VERY,VERY extensive.........
.
A cautionary note ......several of these wagers .....lose on a COME OUT SEVEN(7) showing
as once the $'s WAGERED are taken down ,the wager must be RE-ESTABLISHED
.
.PRIOR to.
.
THE NEXT COME OUT ROLL........
( This makes wagers like the ALL-TALL-SMALL very vulnerable to loss )

Further,the casino may set the MAXIMUM for this wager to a level as to make it TOO EXPENSIVE
.

Just me saying

W C

P S : Having a low expectation of winning,I have at times squandered $ wagering on one roll side bets as well a few of the side bets I prefer to call "Carnival Bets ".
.
.

[London Shooter]

Heavy, my response is tongue in cheek too - I should have used the

I only know my figures as that is all I have ever done - one 4 pointer and nothing more, throughout all my throws.