After a seven out - who hops the last point number

[lucky2bALady]

I am not superstitious at all, but I can't help but notice how many times the last point number comes up on the next come out roll. How often would this need to happen to make that hop bet profitable?

[wudged]

For simplicity sake, let's just assume you are only hopping one easy combination which pays 15:1.

-1 * (1 - x) + 15 * x > 0, where x is the probability of hitting the bet. (If you substitute in 1/18 for x, you get -17/18 + 15/18 = -2/18 = -.111 the recognized house edge)

Solving for x gives:

-1 + x + 15x > 0
16x > 1
x > 1/16

1/16 will give 0 house edge, anything greater would be advantageous.

1/16 is 12.5% greater than the 1/18 of random.

To put it into a different perspective, every 144 come outs, random expects it to happen 8 times. You would need it to happen more than 9 times.

Add in more bets with a high edge (hopping the other combinations) and you will need it to happen even more frequently.

[lucky2bALady]

so 8 times out of 144...is 4 times out of 72, 2 times out of 36, so once every 18 rolls?

[wudged]

Random is once out of every 18 rolls (2 easy ways out of 36 combinations,) which gives a house edge of 11.1%

To get 0 edge, you need it to happen once out of every 16 rolls.

To get a player edge, you need it to happen even more often than once out of 16.

[London Shooter]

Or, fly over the UK and there you will need to be less frequent in winning as we will pay you 16:1 and 33:1 on your hopping bets. I doubt it's worth the airfare though

[vegasfan2010]

I see it after a long roll but not hitting the point. I rarely hop that number on the come out, but i have a few times. I usually win when I do.
One time I anounced to the table that it was a good time to hop. Several players did and we all won. I know I was lucky but my timing was good.

[Golfer]

Lucky can beat good.........at times.

[Mad Professor]

Instead of Hopping the last Point that wasn't made; couldn't you simply put a Place-bet on it and work it?

Lower payoff, sure; but lower house-edge as well.


MP

[heavy]

I agree with MP on this one. Place the last point for $10 working and play a $10 PL bet. If the seven shows it's a break-even affair. If the last point appears you get paid on it and a second shot at a shooter making it on a repeater.

[vegasfan2010]

Good idea MP. Better than a one roll bet.