Do you have an "Exit Strategy" play?

[freak]

One of the things I almost always struggle with is knowing when to leave at the end of the trip. For us it's a long drive to the casino, so like any other enjoyable passtime that I only get to do occasionally, calling it a day and letting go is hard. If it's day one of a 3 day trip ending a session isn't that hard...I know I'll be back tonight or tomorrow. But that last day...If I'm down I'm tempted to make a few more rolls and try to get some back. If I'm ahead I just want one more win. Finding a way to break away is challenging. So I got to thinking, maybe I need an exit play. A specific play, or series of plays that gives me one last shot for a win and celebrates the end of the trip. Maybe a modest win or maybe a lightening strike. But it would be something a bit unusual designed for a one time shot. Not necessarily one roll, but one larger than normal risk as a farewell to the tables until we meet again. Something like:

1) Place the hard ways for $3 each. If one hits place that number with the winnings. Full press until I win $100 or lose to the 7 out.

2) Put up $12 in the field and a $12 horn. If a horn hits take the win and call it a day. If 4, 9 or 10 roll, replace the horn with the winnings until a non-field number rolls.

So, does anyone already have an "Exit" play?

[gargoil]

Freak your exit strategy should be the same every session. First or last should not matter. You should stick to your play strategy. You shouldn't get yourself into a hole to begin with. We talk about that on this board enough that you should know better. You definitely shouldn't put more money on the table to try and get out of a hole. You should have a loss limit per session and when that's reached that is your exit strategy. No such thing as exit play strategy. That's of course my opinion. Others may think different.

[freak]

Much as I'd like to be a dice throwing machine immune to the highs and lows at the table I'm not. The emotional side is pretty strong. My discipline is better but far from perfect. For those of you who have that mastered, good for you. I have a play and I play it 95% of the time. But if we plan to leave at 3PM to drive home, it gets the hardest to stick to my play in that last 30-45 minutes. For me I need triggers and tricks to get me over the hump of certain emotionally charged situations. One of those is walking out. Just wondering if anyone else experiences that. If I can make an exit play something kinda crazy, that I look forward to but might never do consistently, it might make leaving more bearable. It would give me a light at the end of the tunnel. A goodbye kiss. Dessert.

So, I'll ask it a different way...If you're walking out and someone gives you a green chip to play, and you know you've got to leave, and you can't put it in your pocket...what would you do?

[gargoil]

Play 25 dollars in a slot machine.

[Bankerdude80]

Find a roulette table and pick a number.

[gargoil]

Much as I'd like to be a dice throwing machine immune to the highs and lows at the table I'm not. The emotional side is pretty strong. My discipline is better but far from perfect. For those of you who have that mastered, good for you. I have a play and I play it 95% of the time. But if we plan to leave at 3PM to drive home, it gets the hardest to stick to my play in that last 30-45 minutes. For me I need triggers and tricks to get me over the hump of certain emotionally charged situations. One of those is walking out. Just wondering if anyone else experiences that. If I can make an exit play something kinda crazy, that I look forward to but might never do consistently, it might make leaving more bearable. It would give me a light at the end of the tunnel. A goodbye kiss. Dessert.

So, I'll ask it a different way...If you're walking out and someone gives you a green chip to play, and you know you've got to leave, and you can't put it in your pocket...what would you do?

So let's get one thing straight. I am not a dice throwing machine immune to the highs and lows at the table. Just like everybody else I have some good days, I have some bad days and I have some shitty days. Now on to your post.

You say you have a play that you do 95% of the time but you change it if you have to leave at a certain hour. That's where I am trying to help you with. Your play should be the same regardless of the hour or when you have to leave or what you had for supper. Your play should be 2 simple points
1- Buy in at a certain amount (determined only by you)
2- Stop when a certain amount is lost (determined only by you)

Any other play will make you some money some time but cost you lots of money a lot of other times. Now I know you and know how you play so bare with me for a second.
1- If you take money to a casino to gamble then you need to be ready to lose some of that money. Not all of it just some of it.
2- You and you alone can determine the loss limit. No one can tell you that. However if you buy in for 300.00 and cry if you lost 10.00 then you need to go home and never enter the casino. If you are there to gamble and buy in for 300.00 then be ready to lose money because it will happen. Just don't lose the entire thing. Set a limit and when you look at the chips and you are at that limit, walk away. Come back later and start another session using the same concepts I mentioned above.
3- When you get on a hot roll and make money, color up and walk away from the table. Don't sit there thinking that your next 2 or three rolls are going to be that good. Call it a winning session and walk away. Come back later and start another session using the same concepts I mentioned above.

Now if you want to go to a craps table and play for hours just because you like to throw dice and bullshit with people then go for it. Just forget about DI, Betting strategy and everything else we talk about on this board. I said it to you before, you and L will not really appreciate this until you take a course with Heavy. This is not a marketing plug, It's a fact. Until then you are just going to run around chasing your tail. Like I did for years.

[London Shooter]

I think Freak's concept of an exit play is quite useful. Some kind of "hail mary" as the time on the game clock approaches zero. I think risking a few dollars on a potential high payout just before you go out of the door is an understandable idea.

[heavy]

Take your last $100 bucks and take two shots at tossing the 2 or 12 with a $50 High- Low. Hit one and you're back in the game big-time.

[freak]

Thanks London Shooter. Glad to know someone thinks a bit like I do.

I know what to do when I hit a loss or win goal...walk. I do that. That's not the question here. My challenge is when I'm in between, not really winning or losing and time expires. I buy in for $500 and after 2 hours of play I have $480. Or I have $520. I've had fun, been up and down, and now I'm pretty much even but it's time to leave. I'm not trying to press a win. I'm not chasing a loss. I just need to separate from the table. My logical brain says it's time to start driving home. But my fun side says stay just a little longer. We have a lot of rituals and triggers during the game, but nothing specifically to end the game (expcept win/loss limits). The ritual wouldn't even have to be a bet. I just get so attached to the game and my place at the table. If I could find an exit ritual it would help me separate when it's time to go but I haven't hit either limit. I know I'm different than most here but thought I'd check in case others share that feeling.

Heavy - I'll add that to the play book, although I'll likely only do a $10 high/ lo. We did that once about 3 months back and it hit. It was a nice lift walking out the door. And we've also hit a number on roulette walking out. Thanks for the feedback.

[Drab]

Find a roulette table and pick a number.

That's what I did with the $25 in promo chips last time (but 15 on black and 10 even)--hit black once then red. Goodbye promo chips and time to go home.

I usually keep to my loss limit when playing craps, but will occasionally put a couple bucks on a prop bet when I'm getting close to the limit.

I can understand Freak's dilemma, however, because gambling/craps is not usually the main reason we make the drive to Shrv/bossier, so I sometimes will play even if the table isn't "right." This has been especially true at Margaritaville the last couple times (busy $10 tables) even at off times and really busy at night.

We're going up today--hopefully I will stick to my plan.....

[LeftyAJ]

I buy in for $500 and after 2 hours of play I have $480. Or I have $520. I've had fun, been up and down, and now I'm pretty much even but it's time to leave. I'm not trying to press a win. I'm not chasing a loss. I just need to separate from the table.

Freak

Chances are within your 2 hours of play you were either up a couple of hundred or down a couple of hundred and now at quitting time you're back to near even. Being "even" after 2 hours......to me that's not a bad thing. The last thing I want to do at this point of the session is to make some "Hail Mary" high vig bet hoping you'll leave on the big time positive side. Most likely this long shot bet will only piss you're break even session bankroll smack dab into the negative.

My exit strategies are real simple..........hit my loss limit, I'm done. If myself or someone else toss a monster and the table gets super packed, I'm gone. If I toss a really hot hand (or two) and make a decent profit I'll usually shoot again until I toss one poor hand, that instantly tells me the magic's gone and it's time to boogie. Don't want to give back any more profit at this point.

Aj

[Maddog]

... I buy in for $500 and after 2 hours of play I have $480. Or I have $520. I've had fun, been up and down, and now I'm pretty much even but it's time to leave. ... If I could find an exit ritual it would help me separate when it's time to go but I haven't hit either limit. I know I'm different than most here but thought I'd check in case others share that feeling.

In John Patricks Advanced Craps book he talks about the "Sayonara" bet. Basically a "last play of the day".

In his description, this is only played after a winning session and is done with excess after the guarantee is locked up (see Patrick for the concepts of Guarantee and Excess) and he qualifies it as needing to be at least $100 up. However if you are not concerned about the locked in win and just want a "good-bye" bet, I suppose you could skip those qualifiers.

The bet described is simply Laying both the 4 and the 10 for $40 each ($41 with vig). If the seven rolls you win a total of $40 for both the Lay-bets (less $2 for the vigs = $38) and walk. If either the 4 or 10 rolls, you lose that bet (-$41), you take down the other Lay bet and walk. Say "Sayonara" and go to the cashier.

My usual exit bet is probably a $25 field bet. Next roll I either lose the $25 or win some money. Either way I'm gone.

[freak]

Thanks Maddog. That's what I'm looking for. A "Sayonara" bet. Perfect.

Actually I might do a lay across as the last bet of the weekend this Sunday. I would look forward to that, which is the whole point...an exit play I can look forward to. That one feels great when it hits but it will get you in trouble if you use it for a session play and try to keep replacing the picked off numbers. But a one time shot? I like it. That puts $206 in action. If the 7 rolls I win $130 and down. Worst case is a 4 or 10 and I lose $41. Another variation would be to lay the 4, 5, 9 & 10. Place the 6&8 for $18 each. If the 7 rolls I win $44 ($80 - $36). If a six or eight roll I win $21 and all down. Horn numbers push. Outside hits I lose $31 or $41.

[freak]

AJ and Six shooter - I hear what you're saying about loss and win limits but this is a different question. What if the reason to leave is not your bank roll but the clock on the wall. You've just had a great 3 day trip in Vegas. You flight leaves in 2 hours. You're 1.5 hours into your final Vegas session for this year. You are about even, not close to your limits on either end. You have to go by 11. Would you like to do anything to mark your very last play knowing it's farewell to Vegas for the year or just keep playing and pull your bets down at 11AM on the dot and walk?

[gargoil]

Trying a last minute session (unscheduled) has always resulted in bat outcome for me. Your mind is distracted on flight time / traffic / everything else. You have to remember I bet on me and not on randies so playing distracted = bad results.
If you bet on random shooters then most of the time you are loosing money anyway so play anytime you want.

Now I have on occasion scheduled a last minute session and have done pretty well. But that's because It was a planned last minute session. When I say planned I mean I planned at least 4 hours ahead. Anything else I do not go close to the craps table on my way out. I may hit the slots for 50 bucks or so but that's about it.

I know you are talking about the drive to Cherokee and the lack of anything else to do up there. Trust me I have had my fair share of driving 2.5 hours, playing for 30 minutes and loosing my payroll then driving 2.5 hours back with my tail between my legs. The advice I can give you is this...
- If you are up, tell yourself I am going to make three plays. One on each of the next three rolls. When that's done you're done. The plays could be anything you want depending on the table if you are charting. It may be playing the don't. I don't care. Just plan on three and done.
- If you are down, make one play based on what you think the table is doing and you're done.

Others on the forum are chiming in on what kind of plays to do but you have to decide based on the table conditions and who the shooters are. If the table is choppy play the don't. If there is a hot shooter then wait until he shoots and make your play.

However for me I am sticking to my session rules.
I hope you don't take these or my previous comments as negative or rude. I am trying to help you and I post because I know you and played with you before so I feel I can be as honest as I am with you.

I will ping you when I get back from Biloxi and see if me you and L can hit Cherokee one weekend.

[LeftyAJ]

AJ and Six shooter - I hear what you're saying about loss and win limits but this is a different question. What if the reason to leave is not your bank roll but the clock on the wall. You've just had a great 3 day trip in Vegas. You flight leaves in 2 hours. You're 1.5 hours into your final Vegas session for this year. You are about even, not close to your limits on either end. You have to go by 11. Would you like to do anything to mark your very last play knowing it's farewell to Vegas for the year or just keep playing and pull your bets down at 11AM on the dot and walk?

Freak

I guess I'm spoiled..........A/C is only an hour away so long durations between casino visits isn't an issue for me.

But, when I stay for two nights down A/C and I'm in my final session after playing an additional 6 or 7 earlier sessions and I'm "even" for my trip and my last session's just up and down nothing special..........no sir, I'm gonna pack it in at that point. No last second risks. If "it" wasn't happening in the prior sessions or your current one either, what makes you think a last ditch Sayonara bet will "save the day". Granted, everyone wants to come home a big winner.........I just don't see the logic in losing an additional $25 - $100 on some high vig bet. Sure, it would be great message board fodder if you hit it, but after the dealer rakes that losing bet away, the entire flight home you'll be thinking "why the F did I do that".

Aj

[Smokespray]

....... If "it" wasn't happening in the prior sessions or your current one either, what makes you think a last ditch Sayonara bet will "save the day". Granted, everyone wants to come home a big winner.........I just don't see the logic in losing an additional $25 - $100 on some high vig bet.....

Aj

Aj;
As I understand it, Freak isn't doing it to save the day. I don't think he's maintaining that it makes +EV betting logic, and the bet size he's talking about doesn't really rise to the level of shooting the moon or laying it all on the line in desperation.
He's stepping outside his normal routine to create a psychological end point in the absence of his normal triggers. A little gambling dessert to top off an otherwise sensible meal. He needs to create a mental end to his session.
Sort of like taking a full court shot as you leave the gym,
or the piano beginning to play at the end of Saturday Night Live.
It's his version of pulling on Carol Burnette's ear.

SS

[freak]

Well said Smokespray. In the basketball game the buzzer is what creates an otherwise ridiculous shot. It's actually a smart move in that situation. No harm in that shot with .02 seconds left. Since there is no buzzer at the casino I have to make one internally for myself. We just got back from Cherokee and I was thinking I'd lay across as my last farewell move. But in the moment I didn't want to take that risk. Comeout sevens's hadn't been very consistent and the table was showing few PSOs. So I placed $50 inside and vowed to turn it into $100 or bust. Well I did it and it felt good to make that goal. And the 7out came right after I took it down which made me feel great about the discipline. Then when we colored up our red and green we put the 7 remaining white chips on the hard ways. They didn't hit but it was a clear message to my brain we were done. On the way home we got to talking about using the $50 becomes $100 play more often. I always seem to want to leave several numbers working if the roll is going well once my bets are paid for. Even though I know it's better in the long run to come completely down after a few hits, the lust for that one long roll is so strong I leave $12 to $44 out there. So maybe this quest for a sayonara bet will actually serve to educate me on my main session play. The game is always evolving for me.

[dinero2005]

I like the idea of the Sayonara bet. Personally I like to throw a two-way Yo down but if it's going to be anything might as well be a gamble to create some closure for the 3 hour ride home. Freak, I have the same 3 hour ride home from Cherokee so I can relate.

Here's how I picture it: After a long three day grind, you're tired, hungover and emotionally drained from the ups and downs. It's time to go and you have $520 to show for the $500 you started with so toss down a $20 two-way Yo ($15 for me). At that point it's not about win goals and loss limits. It's about the curtain call and putting the raps on a fun weekend.

Win goals and loss limits are important but if I ever get to the point Craps is more work than fun I'll quit. I used to be a skydiving instructor. I taught enough to pay for my personal jumps and equipment. I had the opportunity to do it full time but I saw too many people stop having fun. We all play craps for different reasons but me, I love the game and challenges of it. I don't play craps to make money although that is the goal, isn't it?

[freak]

We used a hard ways exit play this weekend on most of our sessions. That is, when we color up we put the whites on the hard ways. I used to use the whites to tip, but now I tip early rather than at the end so I don't feel I owe these to the crew. The first time we nearly won as the shooter rolled easy six then hard six. Easy eight then hard eight. That was a tad frustrating but so it goes. Next time we tried again with $4 and the shooter rolled 3 hard 10s. On the first I pressed the 6 & 8. The second I pressed the 4 and 10. The third I pressed all 4. No more hard numbers rolled but the play added $20 to our win. It felt great and this small exit play makes ending a session much easier for me.