Is 20% win realistic?

[lucky2bALady]

HI,

I noticed on a couple threads that people set their win goals for a certain percentage. When playing with a smaller bankroll, should this be adjusted? If I play with $200, there is no way I would get up and leave after winning $40. (20%) I look at doubling my money or better. And the same for the opposite, if I left after loosing 40, I would be gone after 1-2 bad rolls.

[SouthernFried]

Hi L2bAL,

I am new to DI but here's my take. I have a background in Forex Trading and the similarities in requirements for money management are striking. In both trading and playing craps some of the key points of money management that I have picked up are:
- A win is always better than a loss
- Risk only a small portion of your bankroll on any one bet
- Don't expect to double your buy-in. It can happen but will likely not be the norm.
- Many small wins will add up, but one large loss can easily wipe them all out

By trying to double your buy-in, you must leave your money at risk to variance much longer or you are making very large bets relative to your buy-in. Leaving your money at risk longer or betting larger than you should will INCREASE your chances of loss. if you think that a 20% win goal is too puny to be worth the effort then I would advise to get a larger bankroll rather than putting your current one at much more risk.

I have a 20% win goal and a 50% loss limit - I physically lock up half of my buy-in and do not play with those chips. I also place no more than 10% of my buy-in on the table at any time. My bets can grow in size as the session continues to win using the winnings, but the starting value of my bets is less than 10%. I think Heavy advised to have 12-15 bets in your buy-in. For a $200 buy-in, I would never place more than $20 or even lower of my own money on the table (all bets combined) and I would walk away if I lost $100.

I am really new at this and just trying to leverage what I have learned. I hope that helps.

[SouthernFried]

One more thing. When you hit your win goal of 20%, take half of those winnings, lock them up and continue to play with the other half.

[JB85]

Playing with a small buy-in is tough because craps is such a volatile game. With a $200 buy in, you are really limited to $5 tables or lower if you can find them.

If you always try to double your buy-in, you will lose much more frequently than you double it. So this is not a good strategy. If you are disciplined, smaller wins will add up and you can build your bankroll, then eventually increase your buy-ins.

For me, I don't necessarily have a win goal. I don't have any tables closer than an hour, so when I go, I typically stay for a couple of hours, minimum. There are exceptions...if I hit my loss limit I will most likely leave early. If I get up big early, I may also bail. Most time, it falls somewhere in between and you have to use your judgement. After a couple of hours, any positive increase in your buy-in may be a good signal to color up and leave instead of pushing it.

My favorite strategy for a smaller buy-in is similar to DF's cowtippin'. If you need action, this isn't it, but it can be very effective and will extend your table time as well. And this is not necessarily a don't strategy, it can be applied to the pass line or you can adapt it to shooting at a single place bet number.

[heavy]

A 20% win is quite realistic. The problem, as I see it, is that the potential 20% win you'd get from a $200 session bankroll is not sufficient to engage you in the game. If you're looking for a $200 win you simply need a $1000 session bankroll. Using traditional formulas - a $200 bankroll is sufficient to support roughly a $20 bet per shooter. You win some - you lose some - and the trick to winning is to win more than you lose and quit while you're ahead. Then, of course, the whole subject of betting strategy comes into play. Your best chance of winning $20 with your $20 bet is with a single flat bet of $20 - Pass or Don't Pass - Come or Don't Come. Again, this is not sufficient "action" to interest most players who get into craps. Craps players tend to be action players - not grind players. Unless, of course, you're talking about guys like Dylanfreake.

My suggestion? Either get a bigger bankroll or engage in a systematic approach to the game - compounding the wins of many small sessions. Your $200 becomes $240. Your $240 becomes $290. Your $290 becomes $320. Your $320 becomes $350. As your bankroll size grows - so does your average bet. Of course, the opposite is true when you lose.

[freak]

It took me a while to grasp why 20% is a realistic goal. And why I should never risk more than 10% of my session BR on a single roll. In the beginning we got lucky and often doubled or tripled our $100 - $200 buy in. Back then we'd never heard of money management or win goals or loss limits. We just took a few hundred $ and played. Then we hit a losing streak and one REALLY bad weekend. That made us re-examine our entire approach. I read a lot of advise here on Heavy's forum and then I worked through it like this:

How much would I be willing to lose? If I have a terrible losing trip, how bad can that loss be and I can still recover emotionally?
How much of our entire gambling bankroll am I willing to risk on a single casino trip?
How much time do I need to play in order to feel satisfied that I got value out of my day or weekend casino adventure?
How much do I need to win to feel like a winner, or to feel "craps satisfied?"

I used to just go into the casino hoping to win "as much as I possibly can." That was my goal. But as our play has evolved, we've gotten more strict about win/loss limits. Countless times we saw a good roll end with us losing $100 - $200 that was out on the layout and we started to realize that regression would add to our profit. We needed a REASON to regress. A trigger. The win goal is a great trigger for when to regress on a good hand. We faced the above questions and came up with our own blended answers. For us it breaks out something like this:

1) I'm not willing to lose more than $500 - $600 in a one or two day trip.
2) I want to play 4-6 sessions during a two day stay at the casino.
3) I feel like a winner if I leave the trip with $300+
4) Winning big feels the best but winning small feels WAY better than losing.

So we take $1000 on the trip. Our buy-in is anywhere between $200 and $500. Our win goal is 15% - 25% and the loss limit is 50%. Depending on our designed play and confidence level we buy in for $200 - $500. Each session depends on our mood but is guided by our overall plan. We have found that when you set a reasonable win goal what often happens is that you exceed it on the last hand. You play that hand out, but then quit and take a break. You regress as soon as you realize you can capture the win goal but then bet what is remaining to see if you can make it even better. At that point in the session you KNOW you are a winner, you just don't know how big yet. It's a very empowering feeling. When that hand ends, color up! You don't have to be done for the day, just that session. Take a break and get away from the "spell" the table can cast. Our last trip went like this:

Day one
$100 in $145 out
$145 in $200 put
$200 in $310 out
$200 in $400 out
$200 in $350 out
+$560 for the day
Day two
$200 in $100 out
$200 in $100 out
$200 in $100 out
$100 in $50 out
-$350 for the day
+$210 for the trip

If it had not been for our small win goals I don't think we'd have won as much on day one. We really built on the first few wins. That first session we were even at $100 then slightly up to $115 then won $145 and said "done". It helps to get practice saying that. And it builds confidence for the next session. Day two was terrible, but the loss limits saved us and we left winners. In the old days we'd have probably left losers, giving the entire win back plus some.

John Patrick sums it up nicely in this quote. He was talking about playing red chip bets next to other players routinely betting green and black chips. "If you want to place a larger bet, get a bigger bankroll."

[lucky2bALady]

I almost always play at a $5 table in my home state with $200. I play 5 pass, 5-count, 1-2x odds and then depending on the point, 5/6 or iron cross. Obviously if I had lost every time, I would NOT be going back weekly. I guess I feel that I would rather waste all the $200 trying to win $400 then leave when I hit $240. I also only play by myself or with 1 other person. If I go on the weekend, then my bankroll has to be 500 to keep me in the game for a few hours. To lose all $200, i would need to lose 10 hands in a row without any profit.

[SHOOTITALL]

L2B: My thinking here is that Grafstein might be what you are needing. He put all his buy-in in the front rack and played, taking the winnings to the back rack not to be touched until he had zeroed out in the front rack, then counted to see if he could move up a level (or place an additional bet, using the 10% per shooter rule or continue with his current level). This would keep you in the action as you liked but would also put a governor on your betting where you could achieve a decent return. Just my thinking. sia

[freak]

What I'm hearing you say is you need to win $200 in order to feel "craps satisfied". You are the only one who can decide what it takes to "win" and how much you are willing to risk to get there. If you can regularly achieve a $200 win from a $200 buyin than you are a unique player that we all have a lot to learn from. But since you asked the question you're getting answers. They may not be what you want or expected to hear, but there is much wisdom on this site.

What I believe I, and others, are trying to share with you here is simply this: When you play starting with $200 there will be many times that you have more than $200 but less than $400. If you stop playing at SOME point when you are ahead, you are a winner. Those wins will add up. PLUS your risk of losing all $200 in a session is greatly diminished. The lower the win goal, the more times you will exit the session as a winner. If you need to win double the amount of your buy in in order to feel "craps satisfied" then you will leave the table a loser most days. Only you can decide the ratio of win/loss that works for you. If you follow a standard 20% win/50% loss you will be ahead when you win three small sessions for each time you lose. This is difficult but at times possible. On rare days it even feels easy. If you follow your 100% win/100% loss you only need to win every other session to break even, but those wins have to be monsters. And that is somewhere between unlikely and next to impossible. If the thrill of winning double is you ultimate goal and makes up for the many times you lose it all then your formula is working for you. If you want to steadily grow your bankroll or simply reduce the need to feed your bankroll with outside funds you might consider more standard win/loss limits. It all starts with defining your goals.

[shunkaha]

I tend to agree with Heavy, personally I'd shoot for a 25% goal and add to your bankroll in anything that was a multiple of a green chip. Your bankroll would go $200 - 250 - 300 - 375 - 450 - 550 - 675 - 825 - 1,025... every trip with that $1,000 BR your goal is a $200 win. Odds are you don't get to the $1,000 bankroll in 8 trips or sessions but best case you would and could either keep a portion of the 25% each time and increase your bankroll or do as you wish. As for a $40 win goal, no way would I go as far as I have to to win $40, the reason being is the trip expense would dwarf that... but then if it was a session goal and I could do maybe a half dozen sessions per trip, sure.

Anyway to recap, the best way to get to the $200 goal is to increase your bankroll as Heavy said and go from there.

[Dylanfreake]

The first time I went to a casino to play was in August of 2000. I had a TOTAL gambling bankroll of $100. I did not like gambling at the time and told my wife that when I lose that $100 I would never go back to a casino. I played BJ and got really lucky and won $100. That was my goal.

The next time I played I only won $60 and was disappointed. The third time I lost $40 and reality set in .

In the fall of 2000, I began playing craps and especially liked the Darkside which it seemed no one else played. I found out really quick that once you are ahead it`s time to leave the table. I left the table hundreds of times with a $5 win and a lot of times with $1 and $3 wins since there were tables with those limits at the time.

I am not an action junky so I have no problem playing small ball. Do what SIA says and lock up winning chips and always make sure you do not give everything back that you have won.

After you build up your bankroll you can take more chances and use a 2% or 3% or 4% of your Total Gambling Bankroll for a loss limit.

Good Luck

[JB85]

I guess I feel that I would rather waste all the $200 trying to win $400 then leave when I hit $240.

That's fine, everyone has a different motivation at the tables. But it is important to know that your craps play is "entertainment" because with a $200 win goal and a $200 buy-in you will certainly see an overall decline in your total bankroll over time.

[wild child]

Twenty Percent is valid ....
.
Too often people rag that the small dollar amount ($) of MONEY MANAGEMENT GOAL
is far below their expense of going to the casino ( travel,room,lunch etc,etc,etc)..
.
When the cash is blown off as ENTERTAINMENT
then the cost of entertainment is the amount with which you part.
..GOODBY BUCKS....
Like attending a concert ,fishing or playing golf.......
.
That said: Serious casino play experience amounts most often to three steps back and five steps forward,,( at best)
By adhering to a (%) guideline/benchmark ,you have a shot of extending the use of
your BANK ROLL / BUY IN $
.
By growing your WAGERING STAKE ( $ )
the 20% of a LARGER $ AMOUNT
may become a more satisfying $ amount....
.
Bottom line
...You pays your time,money and effort...
and you are at liberty to make your choices....
.
At best the progress is stair step ..

.Reality is peaks and valleys....( HILL & GULLY )
.

Just me saying

W C

[bobr]

But it is important to know that your craps play is "entertainment" because with a $200 win goal and a $200 buy-in you will certainly see an overall decline in your total bankroll over time.

Over time, what will affect your bankroll is whether you're playing with an advantage. Ideally, you find a situation where you can bet with an advantage, betting on players who are influencing the dice at a table that doesn't have too much heat or other players getting in the way, and you play as long as everyone is sharp and able to keep it up. If you stick to situations where you have an advantage, then even if you often leave empty handed, you should be able to make it up with larger wins.

If you aren't playing with an advantage, then no matter how you stop/start or divide up your sessions then the house edge will grind you down, and you should select your session goals to maximize your own personal entertainment. (IMHO)

- Bob

[Dylanfreake]

In other words quit playing when you are ahead.

[AtGame7]

You win some - you lose some - and the trick to winning is to win more than you lose and quit while you're ahead.

Worth quoting, and I'm not being a smart ass here. It took me a long, long time to learn this. I'm still learning.

[AtGame7]

4) Winning big feels the best but winning small feels WAY better than losing.

Also worth quoting.

[freak]

In other words quit playing when you are ahead.

This is one of those things so easy to see when I'm not at the table. But somehow, at the table, this is incredibly difficult. Something happens to my brain and instead of seeing that I'm ahead I only see that I am winning and I want to keep winning. In the beginning of my craps journey, the only way I ever left a winner was to have a great hand right before it was time to go, or to have a monster win followed by a series of small losses. Only the losing made me realize I was ahead and should stop before I give it all back. In some ways my old ignorant days were more fun. I didn't think so hard about bankroll, discipline and win/loss limits. But since my journey is self-funded I've been forced by losses to learn a new way to exit. And that way is setting a realistic GOAL for each session before I start to play. Sometimes I forget and we get to the table and L asks "So, what's our win goal?" If we're at the table that can be a really hard question to answer. I'm still learning how to answer that. It always goes better if I answer that before we walk in the door.

I think this whole experience is akin to an athlete trying to decide BEFORE a game what their scoring target is. Or in the beginning of their career when they plan to retire. I mean what basketball player would say 'If I can score 4 points I'll be satisfied and I'll ask coach to take me out of the game and save me for the next game." But that's the nature of OUR sport. The risk of staying in the game is always really high. We have four fouls when we start playing. Our devastating torn ACL is as simple as a 7-out at the wrong time. Benched. Game over. The good news? It's only money. The only rehab we need is to our wallet. But that too can take time.

So as unnatural as it might seem, having a modest win goal does appear to be a key ingredient to a long craps career.

"Take me out coach..."

[dinero2005]

I'm a firm believer in win goals and loss limits like most of the posters here. I've applied it to poker before I started playing craps so it came fairly naturally. What I think is missing here though is that it's a win GOAL not a win LIMIT. Once you turn your $200 into $240, not reason to stop there. Keep on winning while things are hot. The key is to not go back below that 20% win goal.

There's one part of the loss limit that I probably look at differently though. I base my loss limit on my entire bankroll not my session buy in. I'm not going to put money on the table I'm not willing to risk. For me it makes it easier mentally. It's a tough thing to buy in for $200 but only gamble $100. That part has never made a lot of sense to me. If my loss limit is $100 I buy in for $100 and keep the other $100 in my pocket. It ends up being the same thing but I find it easier to manage. That's just me.

[SHOOTITALL]

There is one area that still give me a bit of anxiousness. Let us say that I buy in for $200 and lo and behold, I get to my 20% win goal. Now the question becomes, "do I continue to play, shooting back the hard won bucks by going under my goal?" Sometimes yes, sometimes no. That area is where I honestly did not know what to do most of the time. I will feel bad and kick myself if I drop down and feel good if I actually win one more bet. I have sort of found a middle ground here that may seem kind of nutty but when I am approaching the win goal, I actually bet an extra bet to either carry me over the goal or remain below the goal and keep playing to achieve the goal since I did not reach it. Then, if I win that extra bet that carried me over the goal, I can bet that extra over the goal with no remorse and either continue upward or drop to my win goal and walk away. As I mentioned, it is kind of nutty but it certainly smooths out my outlook on that session. sia