Daydreamin' while riding my bike today... I was wondering which is the better play:
After I regress my initial large bet, I'll bet $54/52 Across, and a minimum PL w/$20 odds. I'll parlay the first box number that's rolled 3 times. (I'll press 'up one unit' on all other numbers.) At the 3rd parlay, I'll reduce that bet to $10 and take the profits-- for example, if 4 is the first number to roll after the regression, I'll parlay from $10 to 30, to 90 and reduce it back to $10 when it pays the $162 for the 3rd repeater. (To continue with detailing the betting scheme--I'll proceed to the next highest box bet and parlay that number at least 3x before regressing it to a $10 bet. Etc.)
My daydreaming got me to wondering--after I my initial regression to $54/52 Across, assuming I immediately rolled 5 different box numbers, if I parlayed those five winning box bets and then took the next three numbers' payoffs on their next repeaters (the second parlayed amount for each of 3 different numbers) and added that amount to the PL odds, would I be playing to "better odds"? (I'm thinking I would regress again to $54/52 Across and "up one unit" on every number at that time.)
I know that the PL odds are the "best odds in the house"--pure, no vig. I don't mean that when I say "better odds"; I mean, In my original "parlay 3x" scheme, I have to hit the same signature number 3x to take a 'large' profit. But if I took the second parlayed repeater for three different numbers and added those monies to the PL odds (adding the appropriate amount to the PL bet to allow a higher dollar 10x odds bet), no matter the point, I'm looking to only hit the point one time to pay a 'large' profit. I think the odds are better to hit the point once than to repeat a box number three times, yes?
I don't know how to figure the probabilities... e. g., the odds of repeating the ten would be 3/36... Are the odds of hitting the six three times 5/36 x 5/36 x 5/36, or is this a computation denoting back-to-back-to-back? (if so, what is the computation to show three 6's before a 7?)
Is this lone statistical analysis the best measure to figure out if this 'new idea' is better than my 'parlay 3x' scheme (provided '10' is the point, and the first number after regression is the 6)?
I mean, is the computation of one number against the triple parlay of another all that needs to be considered, or does it need to be more complicated--do the odds of running 3 parlays have to be run against each different PL point value, and then run against the occurrence of the 7? or is that taken into account by the mere fact of citing each number's probability?
Thank you!
I shouldn't ride my bike... it chokes up my mind.
I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
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Mad Professor
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Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
Hi Dork,
Do you mind if I reply with a multi-part answer?
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Have you ever wondered how many winning Place-bet hits per hand you can reasonably expect your current dice-influencing skills to produce?
I’m not talking about the time back in the Spring of ’95 when you threw 37 Place-bet winning 9’s in the same hand; I’m talking about your overall reasonable expectation.
In other words, what is the general expectation that we can reasonably anticipate from our Place-bets when we send them out there to collect as many winning-hits on themselves as possible?
Let’s start with a combined Place-bet on the 6 and 8:
[tr][td][center][color=#FF0000][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for combined Place-bets on the 6 and 8[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td][color=#FF0000][b][center][size=150]Hits[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=#FF0000][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=#FF0000][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=#FF0000][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]1[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]62.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]66.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]69.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]39.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]44.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]48.7%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]24.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]29.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]34.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]15.3%[/size][/center][center][size=100][color=#FF0000] (1-out-of-every-6.5 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]19.7%[/size][/center][center][size=100] [color=#FF0000] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-5.1 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]23.7%[/size][/center][center][size=100] [color=#FF0000](1-out-of-every-4.2 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]9.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]13.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]16.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.1%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.9%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.9%[/size][/center][center][size=100] [color=#FF0000](1-out-of-every-111 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.7%[/size][/center][center][size=100] [color=#FF0000](1-out-of-every-59 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.7%[/size][/center][center][size=100] [color=#FF0000](1-out-of-every-37 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 6 & 8)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
~So for example, if we want to know how likely it is that an SRR-6 random-roller will toss at least one Place-bet 6 or 8 winner; the answer is, around 63% of the time; but he’ll only toss two of them in the same hand around 39% of the time...and three or more of them about 24% of the time.
Do you see where this is going?
~As an SRR-7 shooter, you can generally expect to average four paying-hits on either the 6 or 8 about once every five hands…but only expect 10 or more paying hits on them around once every 60 hands.
Think about that for a second.
If you are an SRR-7 shooter; does that confirm or contradict your current hit-rate on those two numbers?
The reason I ask is because the never-more-popular Start-Small-and-Press-Hard method prescribes that you start with severely under-sized wagers; and then try to press them into something big and dramatic if you produce an extraordinary number of winning-hits.
But the question is: How many paying-hits will you usually hit, and are you currently wasting most of those winning-hits in pursuit of the long hands that never seem to come around often enough?
When you are answering this, don’t just think about the hand you threw a couple of years ago where you hit twelve back-to-back-to-back 6’s and 8’s in a row, where you produced a total of twenty in the same hand; I want you to think about ALL the hands you throw…and how often you really and truly toss a ten-hitter on the 6 and 8.
Is my 1-in-59 hands generalization fairly representative or out to lunch?
The same goes for an SRR-8 shooter. I reckon he’ll toss at least a four-hitter (or beyond) on the Place-bet 6 and 8 about a quarter (24%) of the time. That means he’ll collect four or more winning hits on the 6 and 8 around once every 4.2 hands.
Now obviously the chart that we have here isn’t the definitive be-all and end-all determinant of how many winning hits you yourself will collect; but it should give you some idea of what you can reasonably expect on an overall basis...and perhaps make you think about how efficient and effective your current betting-method really is.
A little later we’ll look at the expected hit-rate for the 5 and 9, as well as the 4 and 10.
Until then,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Do you mind if I reply with a multi-part answer?
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Have you ever wondered how many winning Place-bet hits per hand you can reasonably expect your current dice-influencing skills to produce?
I’m not talking about the time back in the Spring of ’95 when you threw 37 Place-bet winning 9’s in the same hand; I’m talking about your overall reasonable expectation.
In other words, what is the general expectation that we can reasonably anticipate from our Place-bets when we send them out there to collect as many winning-hits on themselves as possible?
Let’s start with a combined Place-bet on the 6 and 8:
~So for example, if we want to know how likely it is that an SRR-6 random-roller will toss at least one Place-bet 6 or 8 winner; the answer is, around 63% of the time; but he’ll only toss two of them in the same hand around 39% of the time...and three or more of them about 24% of the time.
Do you see where this is going?
~As an SRR-7 shooter, you can generally expect to average four paying-hits on either the 6 or 8 about once every five hands…but only expect 10 or more paying hits on them around once every 60 hands.
Think about that for a second.
If you are an SRR-7 shooter; does that confirm or contradict your current hit-rate on those two numbers?
The reason I ask is because the never-more-popular Start-Small-and-Press-Hard method prescribes that you start with severely under-sized wagers; and then try to press them into something big and dramatic if you produce an extraordinary number of winning-hits.
But the question is: How many paying-hits will you usually hit, and are you currently wasting most of those winning-hits in pursuit of the long hands that never seem to come around often enough?
When you are answering this, don’t just think about the hand you threw a couple of years ago where you hit twelve back-to-back-to-back 6’s and 8’s in a row, where you produced a total of twenty in the same hand; I want you to think about ALL the hands you throw…and how often you really and truly toss a ten-hitter on the 6 and 8.
Is my 1-in-59 hands generalization fairly representative or out to lunch?
The same goes for an SRR-8 shooter. I reckon he’ll toss at least a four-hitter (or beyond) on the Place-bet 6 and 8 about a quarter (24%) of the time. That means he’ll collect four or more winning hits on the 6 and 8 around once every 4.2 hands.
Now obviously the chart that we have here isn’t the definitive be-all and end-all determinant of how many winning hits you yourself will collect; but it should give you some idea of what you can reasonably expect on an overall basis...and perhaps make you think about how efficient and effective your current betting-method really is.
A little later we’ll look at the expected hit-rate for the 5 and 9, as well as the 4 and 10.
Until then,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
I resemble that post. There's no counting the number of times my 2nd parlay $60 on the 5 or 9 has vanished into oblivion.
May I ask for a clarification out of curiousity? The odds of rolling a six... 5/36 x 5/36 x 5/36 = 125/46656... what did I just compute? Are those the chances of rolling 3 sixes before the 7, or 3 consecutive sixes? My 90% hunch says that number's too low, so it has to be consecutive 6's... but my curiousity's up. If it can be provided in a short and quick answer, what's the mathematical expression to show 3 sixes randomly occurring before a 7? (I've got plenty of time, but there's no need for you to spend a lot of time on this since you've answered my original question pretty well.)
Thank you, MP!
Have we met?...and are you currently wasting most of those winning-hits in pursuit of the long hands that never seem to come around often enough?
May I ask for a clarification out of curiousity? The odds of rolling a six... 5/36 x 5/36 x 5/36 = 125/46656... what did I just compute? Are those the chances of rolling 3 sixes before the 7, or 3 consecutive sixes? My 90% hunch says that number's too low, so it has to be consecutive 6's... but my curiousity's up. If it can be provided in a short and quick answer, what's the mathematical expression to show 3 sixes randomly occurring before a 7? (I've got plenty of time, but there's no need for you to spend a lot of time on this since you've answered my original question pretty well.)
Thank you, MP!
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Mad Professor
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Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
dork wrote:The odds of rolling a six... 5/36 x 5/36 x 5/36 = 125/46656... what did I just compute? Are those the chances of rolling 3 sixes before the 7, or 3 consecutive sixes?
Yes, 0.27% (an average of 1-in-373 random tries) represents the chance of rolling three consecutive 6's.
The chance of rolling three 6's before a 7 would be 5/11 x 5/11 x 5/11; which works out to 9.39% (an average of 1-in-10.7 random tries)
MP
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Mad Professor
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Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Two
If we wager our positive-expectation bets as thoughtfully-crafted investments; we’ll not only be more likely to see the full return OF our investment, we’ll also be much more likely to collect a dividend premium return ON our investment.
Let’s take a look at how a combined Place-bet on the 5 and 9 will generally shape up:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for combined Place-bets on the 5 and 9[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center]Hits[/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]1[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]57.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]61.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]65.1%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]32.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]37.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]42.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]18.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]23.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]27.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]10.6%[/center][center][size=85][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-9.4 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]14.3%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-7 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]17.9%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-5.6 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.7%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]7.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.2%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.1%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.4%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-250 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.8%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-125 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.4%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-71 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Place-bet 5 & 9)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
Intelligently investing your gaming-bankroll into properly-sized and adequately-validated advantage-bets, is the seed-corn that when carefully planted, patiently nurtured, and properly harvested; produces a full and bountiful crop that will provide a many-fold return on your gaming-dollars.
~If you invest your gaming-dollars where they are most likely to do the most good over the greatest number of trials; then they are poised to continue paying bankroll-growing dividends well into the future.
~When you send your betting-dollars out there, simply consider how many winning Place-bet hits per hand you can reasonably expect from your current dice-influencing skills; and then consider what you are doing with those first couple of winning-hits...
~Are you racking them…are you pressing them…or are you power-pressing them by adding even more betting-dollars to the ones that you’ve just freshly-collected?
~What you do with the first three or four paying-hits on your best-advantage Place-bets, will largely determine your overall chances of steadily growing your bankroll, session after session after session.
I’ll give you a hint:
If your first three or four paying-hits on your best-advantage Place-bets are not safely ensconced IN YOUR RACK; then your chances of steadily growing your bankroll, session after session after session…is virtually NIL.
However, if you think I am wrong on this one; I welcome your reply, including the math that proves I don't know what I'm talking about.
A little later we’ll look at the expected hit-rate for the 4 and 10.
Until then,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Two
If we wager our positive-expectation bets as thoughtfully-crafted investments; we’ll not only be more likely to see the full return OF our investment, we’ll also be much more likely to collect a dividend premium return ON our investment.
Let’s take a look at how a combined Place-bet on the 5 and 9 will generally shape up:
~If you invest your gaming-dollars where they are most likely to do the most good over the greatest number of trials; then they are poised to continue paying bankroll-growing dividends well into the future.
~When you send your betting-dollars out there, simply consider how many winning Place-bet hits per hand you can reasonably expect from your current dice-influencing skills; and then consider what you are doing with those first couple of winning-hits...
~Are you racking them…are you pressing them…or are you power-pressing them by adding even more betting-dollars to the ones that you’ve just freshly-collected?
~What you do with the first three or four paying-hits on your best-advantage Place-bets, will largely determine your overall chances of steadily growing your bankroll, session after session after session.
I’ll give you a hint:
If your first three or four paying-hits on your best-advantage Place-bets are not safely ensconced IN YOUR RACK; then your chances of steadily growing your bankroll, session after session after session…is virtually NIL.
However, if you think I am wrong on this one; I welcome your reply, including the math that proves I don't know what I'm talking about.
A little later we’ll look at the expected hit-rate for the 4 and 10.
Until then,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Three
It should go without saying that these charts should be used as a guideline in terms of what you can generally expect from a group of SRR-specific players.
Now obviously some players within each SRR-grouping will produce more of some outcomes than of others. For example, one SRR-7 player might 'specialize' in banging out 5's, 9's, and 3's, whereas another in-the-same-skill-grouping will produce a heavier preponderance of 6's, 8's, and maybe 4's.
The major takeaway from these charts is that it should give you a rough sense of what can generally be expected were you to be shooting with a group of equivalently-skilled players. So for instance, if you were fashioning a betting-strategy for shooting with a group of SRR-7 players; these charts would certainly help you in crafting that strategy...or at least in understanding that group's hit-rate dynamics.
Still further, if you are looking to gain a better overall understanding of how many paying-hits your current skill will likely produce; then these charts should be of significant help.
Let’s take a look at how a combined Buy-bet on the 4 and 10 will generally shape up:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for combined Buy-bets on the 4 and 10[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]Hits[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]1[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]50.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]54.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]58.1%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]25.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]29.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]33.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]12.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]16.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]19.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.25%[/size][/center][center][size=85][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-16 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.8%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-11.4 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.4%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-8.8 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]4.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]3.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.2%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]1.3%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.1%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-1000 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.2%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-500 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]0.4%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-250 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the combined Buy-bet 4 & 10)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Three
It should go without saying that these charts should be used as a guideline in terms of what you can generally expect from a group of SRR-specific players.
Now obviously some players within each SRR-grouping will produce more of some outcomes than of others. For example, one SRR-7 player might 'specialize' in banging out 5's, 9's, and 3's, whereas another in-the-same-skill-grouping will produce a heavier preponderance of 6's, 8's, and maybe 4's.
The major takeaway from these charts is that it should give you a rough sense of what can generally be expected were you to be shooting with a group of equivalently-skilled players. So for instance, if you were fashioning a betting-strategy for shooting with a group of SRR-7 players; these charts would certainly help you in crafting that strategy...or at least in understanding that group's hit-rate dynamics.
Still further, if you are looking to gain a better overall understanding of how many paying-hits your current skill will likely produce; then these charts should be of significant help.
Let’s take a look at how a combined Buy-bet on the 4 and 10 will generally shape up:
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Four
Besides Place-betting the 6 and 8, I would think that wagering on the Inside-numbers (5, 6, 8, and 9) is the most popular multi-number global bet that is made.
Without a doubt it is also the most popular one made by the dice-influencing community as a whole; but have you ever stopped to think about how effective the Inside-bet really is?
I mean, we know that the 5, 6, 8, and 9 make up 50% (18-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it takes 3.14 same-bet winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Inside-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides a 31.8% same-bet return on our total Inside-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Inside-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to provide?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 5 or more Inside-hits per hand about 30% of the time as an SRR-7 shooter; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-12 hands would contain 10 or more winning Inside-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Inside-wagers at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Inside-bet will generally shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for the INSIDE-bet[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]Hits[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]1[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]75.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]78.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]80.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]56.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]61.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]65.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]42.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]47.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]52.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]31.6%[/size][/center][center][size=85][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-3.2 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]37.4%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-2.7 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]42.2%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-2.4 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]23.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]29.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]34.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]17.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]22.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]27.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]13.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]17.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]22.1%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]10.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]14.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]17.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]7.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]10.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]14.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.6%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-17.9 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.6%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-11.6 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.6%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-8.6 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
When we are crafting a betting-strategy for our dice-influencing efforts; it pays to be mindful of how many winning-hits our active bets are likely to produce…and how often they are likely to do so.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Four
Besides Place-betting the 6 and 8, I would think that wagering on the Inside-numbers (5, 6, 8, and 9) is the most popular multi-number global bet that is made.
Without a doubt it is also the most popular one made by the dice-influencing community as a whole; but have you ever stopped to think about how effective the Inside-bet really is?
I mean, we know that the 5, 6, 8, and 9 make up 50% (18-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it takes 3.14 same-bet winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Inside-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides a 31.8% same-bet return on our total Inside-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Inside-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to provide?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 5 or more Inside-hits per hand about 30% of the time as an SRR-7 shooter; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-12 hands would contain 10 or more winning Inside-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Inside-wagers at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Inside-bet will generally shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
When we are crafting a betting-strategy for our dice-influencing efforts; it pays to be mindful of how many winning-hits our active bets are likely to produce…and how often they are likely to do so.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Five
Across-betting (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) is a popular multi-number global-wager, especially for those players who are looking at getting a high and rapid hit-frequency for their bets.
So what do we know about the Across-bet?
We know that the Across-bet makes up 66.6% (24-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 4.27 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Across-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 23.4% return on our total Across-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Across-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 6 or more Across-hits per hand about 32% of the time (only 1-out-of-3.1 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-6.7 hands would contain 10 or more winning Across-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Across-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Across-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for the ACROSS-bet[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]Hits[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]1[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150][size=150]80.0%[/size][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]82.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]84.8%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]64.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]68.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]71.9%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]51.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]56.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]61.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]41.0%[/size][/center][center][size=85][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-2.4 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]46.8%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-2.1 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]51.7%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-1.9 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]32.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]38.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]43.9%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]26.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]32.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]37.2%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]21.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]26.5%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]31.5%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]16.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]21.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]26.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]13.4%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]18.1%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]22.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]10.7%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-9.3 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]15.0%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-6.7 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]19.2%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-5.2 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Inside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
When we are crafting a betting-strategy for our dice-influencing efforts; it pays to be mindful of how many winning-hits our active bets are likely to produce…and how often they are likely to do so.
When we look at the high hit-frequency Across-bet; we should also be mindful of how often it doesn’t get us to where we’d like it to take us to.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Five
Across-betting (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) is a popular multi-number global-wager, especially for those players who are looking at getting a high and rapid hit-frequency for their bets.
So what do we know about the Across-bet?
We know that the Across-bet makes up 66.6% (24-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 4.27 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Across-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 23.4% return on our total Across-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Across-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 6 or more Across-hits per hand about 32% of the time (only 1-out-of-3.1 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-6.7 hands would contain 10 or more winning Across-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Across-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Across-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
When we look at the high hit-frequency Across-bet; we should also be mindful of how often it doesn’t get us to where we’d like it to take us to.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
Thank you, MP! I'm still reading your posts. I didn't realize what I was demanding of my 'parlay 3x' betting system--I knew I was looking for a 'Hail Mary', but I didn't understand how remote my chances were (even if I was a DI).
-
Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Six
Outside-betting (4, 5, 9, and 10) is a fairly popular multi-number global-wager, especially for those players who like the higher payout-rates (2:1 and 7:5) that these bets offer.
So what do we know about the Outside-bet?
We know that the Outside-bet makes up 38.9% (14-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 2.54 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Outside-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 39.3% return on our total Outside-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Outside-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 6 or more Outside-hits per hand about 15.9% of the time (only 1-out-of-6.3 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-21.3 hands would contain 10 or more winning Outside-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Outside-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Outside-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b][size=150]Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for the OUTSIDE-bet[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center]Hits[/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center][size=150]SRR-6[/size][/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b][size=150]SRR-7[/size][/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b][size=150]SRR-8[/size][/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]1[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]70.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]73.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]76.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]2[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]49.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]54.2%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]58.4%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]3[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]34.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]39.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]44.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]4[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]24.0%[/size][/center][center][size=85][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-4.2 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]29.3%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-3.4 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]34.1%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-2.9 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]5[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]16.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]21.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]26.0%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]6[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]15.9%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]19.9%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]7[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.7%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]15.2%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]8[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]5.8%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.6%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]11.6%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]9[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]4.0%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.3%[/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]8.9%[/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b][size=150]10[/size][/b][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]2.8%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-35.7 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]4.7%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-21.3 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center][size=150]6.8%[/size][/center][center][size=85] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-14.7 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Outside-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
The skilled dice-influencer should be asking two key questions of every bet that he puts on the layout:
~How many winning-hits are you likely to produce for me?
~How often are you likely to produce them?
The answer to those two questions will tell you pretty much all you really need to know in terms of how much net overall profit your bets are likely to produce for you over a reasonable number of trials.
If you don't know the answer to the "How Often?" and "How Many?" question; then don't be under any illusions that your total gaming-bankroll has much of a chance of showing any viable signs of sustainable growth.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Six
Outside-betting (4, 5, 9, and 10) is a fairly popular multi-number global-wager, especially for those players who like the higher payout-rates (2:1 and 7:5) that these bets offer.
So what do we know about the Outside-bet?
We know that the Outside-bet makes up 38.9% (14-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 2.54 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before the Outside-bet shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 39.3% return on our total Outside-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Outside-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 6 or more Outside-hits per hand about 15.9% of the time (only 1-out-of-6.3 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-21.3 hands would contain 10 or more winning Outside-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Outside-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Outside-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
The skilled dice-influencer should be asking two key questions of every bet that he puts on the layout:
~How many winning-hits are you likely to produce for me?
~How often are you likely to produce them?
The answer to those two questions will tell you pretty much all you really need to know in terms of how much net overall profit your bets are likely to produce for you over a reasonable number of trials.
If you don't know the answer to the "How Often?" and "How Many?" question; then don't be under any illusions that your total gaming-bankroll has much of a chance of showing any viable signs of sustainable growth.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: I need a mathmetician to critique my thoughts...
How Many Winning Place-bet Hits Can You Expect to Collect?
Part Seven
Even-number betting (4, 6, 8, and 10) is an infrequently used multi-number global-wager; but one which blends the high payout-ratio of the 4 and 10, with the high hit-frequency of the 6 and 8.
So what do we know about the Even-bet?
We know that the Even-bet makes up 44.4% (16-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 2.8 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before it shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 35.2% return on our total Even-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Even-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 5 or more Even-hits per hand about 25.5% of the time (only 1-out-of-4 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-15 hands would contain 10 or more winning Even-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Even-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Even-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
[tr][td][center][color=Blue][b] Expected Same-Hand Hit-Frequency for the EVEN-bet [/b][/color][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [color=Blue][b][center]Hits[/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [color=Blue][b][center]SRR-6[/center][/b][/color] [/td][td] [center][color=Blue][b]SRR-7[/b][/color][/center] [/td][td] [color=Blue][center][b]SRR-8[/b][/center][/color] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]1[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]72.7%[/center] [/td][td] [center]76.1%[/center] [/td][td] [center]78.7%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]2[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]52.9%[/center] [/td][td] [center]57.9%[/center] [/td][td] [center]81.9%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]3[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]38.4%[/center] [/td][td] [center]44.1%[/center] [/td][td] [center]48.7%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]4[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]27.9%[/center][/size] [center][size=100][color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-3.6 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center]33.5%[/center][/size] [center][size=100] [color=Blue] (1-out-of-every-2.9 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color][/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center]38.4%[/center] [center][size=100] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-2.6 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 4 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color] [/size][/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]5[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]20.3%[/center] [/td][td] [center]25.5%[/center] [/td][td] [center]30.2%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]6[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]14.8%[/center] [/td][td] [center]19.4%[/center] [/td][td] [center]23.8%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]7[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]10.7%[/center] [/td][td] [center]14.8%[/center] [/td][td] [center]18.7%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]8[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]7.8%[/center] [/td][td] [center]11.2%[/center] [/td][td] [center]14.7%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]9[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]5.7%[/center] [/td][td] [center]8.6%[/center] [/td][td] [center]11.6%[/center] [/td][/tr]
[tr][td] [center][b]10[/b][/center] [/td][td] [center]4.1%[/center][/size][center][size=100] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-24.4 SRR-6 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center]6.5%[/center] [center][size=100] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-15.4 SRR-7 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color][/size][/center] [/td][td] [center]9.1%[/center] [center][size=100] [color=Blue](1-out-of-every-10.9 SRR-8 hands is expected to contain 10 or more winning hits on the Even-bet)[/color][/center] [/td][/tr][/size]
When you are crafting a betting-strategy for your validated dice-influencing skills; most players are looking to “turn-a-LITTLE-into-a-LOT” by starting small and pressing hard.
However, if you go to the trouble of taking a long and sober look at how often, or rather, how rarely extended-duration hands occur; the serious player has to question whether his current approach is anywhere close to being appropriate for actually making any kind of bankroll-building money.
If you don’t keep an unjaundiced eye on how rapidly your bankroll is growing, or why it isn’t doubling anywhere nearly as quickly as your validated skill indicates it should be doubling; then you need look no further than how you are betting, and in what amounts you are betting when the dice are in your hand.
For example, if your overall net-profit isn’t equalling the value of your current buy-in about once every three or four sessions (let’s say, producing a net overall $500 profit on your usual $500 buy-in every three or four sessions, and that money is actually staying in your gaming-bankroll and not being lost back during subsequent sessions); then there’s probably something wrong with your current betting approach.
It may be something as simple as starting too small…or pressing too hard too early…or it could be that you are simply ignoring the fact that your current bets will generally only produce a given number of paying-hits over the majority of the hands that you throw.
When you ignore what your skills generally produce; then you can pretty much ignore any hopes of ever doubling your total gaming bankroll, because it just ain’t gonna happen.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009
Part Seven
Even-number betting (4, 6, 8, and 10) is an infrequently used multi-number global-wager; but one which blends the high payout-ratio of the 4 and 10, with the high hit-frequency of the 6 and 8.
So what do we know about the Even-bet?
We know that the Even-bet makes up 44.4% (16-out-of-36) of all possible dice outcomes, and we know that it generally takes about 2.8 winning-hits to fully pay for itself before it shows any profit, and that each winning-hit provides around a 35.2% return on our total Even-bet investment; but do we know how many winning Even-bet hits our current D-I talents are usually likely to produce?
For example, if we knew that we’d only throw 5 or more Even-hits per hand about 25.5% of the time (only 1-out-of-4 hands that we throw) as an SRR-7 dice-influencer; would that change your current betting-strategy?
Or if you knew that only about 1-in-15 hands would contain 10 or more winning Even-bet hits to go with a skilled-shooter's SRR-7 abilities; would that affect how you press, regress, or same-bet your Even-wager at some point in your hand?
Let’s take a look at how a multi-number global-wager like the Even-bet will usually shape up when we consider how many winning-hits it will generally produce in the same hand:
When you are crafting a betting-strategy for your validated dice-influencing skills; most players are looking to “turn-a-LITTLE-into-a-LOT” by starting small and pressing hard.
However, if you go to the trouble of taking a long and sober look at how often, or rather, how rarely extended-duration hands occur; the serious player has to question whether his current approach is anywhere close to being appropriate for actually making any kind of bankroll-building money.
If you don’t keep an unjaundiced eye on how rapidly your bankroll is growing, or why it isn’t doubling anywhere nearly as quickly as your validated skill indicates it should be doubling; then you need look no further than how you are betting, and in what amounts you are betting when the dice are in your hand.
For example, if your overall net-profit isn’t equalling the value of your current buy-in about once every three or four sessions (let’s say, producing a net overall $500 profit on your usual $500 buy-in every three or four sessions, and that money is actually staying in your gaming-bankroll and not being lost back during subsequent sessions); then there’s probably something wrong with your current betting approach.
It may be something as simple as starting too small…or pressing too hard too early…or it could be that you are simply ignoring the fact that your current bets will generally only produce a given number of paying-hits over the majority of the hands that you throw.
When you ignore what your skills generally produce; then you can pretty much ignore any hopes of ever doubling your total gaming bankroll, because it just ain’t gonna happen.
As always,
Good Luck and Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2009