You win "big" on your first hand... do you quit or continue?

[dork]

This is a situation I've never had to face before (hardly)... I've been either really lucky, or the change in throwing position (SL1 to End) and a different casino table has affected my results in a positive way.

I've won (more than 20% of my buy-in) seven out of the total 10 visits. On five of those occasions, I made money solely on my own throws. All five times, I was either down (as much as $100) or barely ahead (by $70 or less) when I took the dice and the minimum I'd won on by the finish of my 5 hands was $312. When I won, I packed my bags immediately. On three of those five occasions, I handled the dice for only one hand, but I packed up anyway.

My "discipline" (number) says I should leave because 20% is an achievable winning day at the table, and the gravy above that figure covers gasoline costs. So far, that other thread about "is 20% possible" has converted my thinking, and I've quit out of discipline.

But is it time to quit after one hand, especially since it's an 'out-of-the-gate' first-hand winner? How many of ya'll would stay and test the table with more play? (I'm a real Chicken Little [Maximus]--I keep hearing a dealer's advice echo in my head... "if you don't leave with it in your pocket, all it was, was, just 'free play'.")

If you were me, would you test your luck after the winning hand with bets across the table equal to say, $156--half my lowest winnings on a first-hand session?

Thank you.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

Generally, if the shooting-conditions remain good, and the table hasn't been colonized by mid-hand newcomers; then I'll stick around for one more try if the dice-return lap-time still looks reasonable.

My reasoning?

If your shooting is good, and the casino's win-tolerance remains high; then ride that nag until it can't be rode no more.


MP

[dork]

Thanks, MP.

DAMN!! I left money on the table. naah, I didn't... I guess I 'did right', then.

Coincidence, maybe, but by the time all my winning hands had finished, those tables had filled even quicker that what seemed usual to me, and so I'd quit. I'm not one to holler and shout or celebrate loudly, either, so I dunno what attracts 'em. Maybe IP just has many more potential craps players filing through than the other casinos I'm used to... and that's the only reason I played at the others--but IP's tables are 'ideal'.

I'm really conscious of 'cycling time', because it seems I get rusty really quickly.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

If you are playing at a solo or near-solo table, and you want to KEEP it that way; then, as you hand in a dealer-toke, politely ask the stickman if he can keep his "win" calls as LOW as possible...and to make his 7-Out calls as LOUD as possible.

That's usually sufficient to keep players from other tables (especially if your table is bet-priced higher than theirs) away.


MP

[Tgold]

Hi Dork--good post/thoughts.
Personally if I have reached my minimum win goal of (>=20% of buyin) which is typically ($700 so aprox $140ish), I will take the additional amount to shoot at least one more time and place the $140 in my DoNotTouch rack row. Often my decision is to shoot at least once more and then make further decisions as a f(x) of 1)how long I have to wait for dice,
2)how is my focus .
Although my win goals are likely more conservative than others as my daily goal is typically to buyin with $700 each session and win >=20% in 3/3 sessions for that day with a daily goal to simply double the buyin each day (obviously only an avg of $233 per session gets that moderate goal accomplished each day).

Hi MP--Great suggestion above as I hadn't considered requesting the dealers to keep their calls lowkey to not attract a rush to the hot table. I'll have to try it.

Thanks all for your many great posts.
All the best,
Tgold

[Maddog]

If I have just had a good hand, and the table situation has not changed much, then I tend to want to stick around and try to keep it going. One thing I've learned, however, is to try and start the next hand, just as I had on the big hand. In the past I have had a big hand, and then when the dice get back to me I would go in with bigger bets thinking I was in the groove. I don't know if it is mental or what, but I have found that I tend to do better on the second/third runs, if I just bet as if it was the first time and build up just like I would have on an initial hand.

[vegasfan2010]

I agree with Maddog, do not bet bigger later. Try to replicate everything next time with the dice.
Only play with a portion of your profits. Even if it turns bad you can quit with a profit.

[Bankerdude80]

I'll try to stick around for another opportunity to toss if the table is not too full. If the table is full, I take the money and run! My experience (anecdotally) has been to lose the slow grind as the dice try to make their way back to me when the table is packed. I think the old saying "Don't quit while you are winning..." would also apply.

Great question Dork!

[shunkaha]

Generally speaking once I have had a good hand that has me ahead by a "large" amount I will split some portion off as what I am willing to risk shooting or betting before I am willing to leave. The number varies but lets say I buy in for $400 and find I have $750 I would chose an amount between $50 - 150 if I lose I leave, if I win I access the figure again, lets say I find I now have $975... I then am willing to risk $75 - 175. I continue that trend until either I finally lose that portion I am willing to risk or eventually 1] get too tired [it does happen, just not frequently], or 2] I have made enough that I can now risk more than my initial buy in and still have profit [I usually play fairly conservative with my profits but have been known to on a very good night be willing to risk more if I feel my toss warrants it after I otherwise have profit.

I do agree with MP and the others though... one never knows when a great night will come along so why leave it earlier than you have to. As long as you win, keep winning. Just be mindful not to lose it back.

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!! Dork brave answer this Q for yourself. UNHH!!After getting ahead does your shooting stay the same, get better, or get worse UNHH!! Combine that answer with time works against you in any casino endever

[dork]

Gddamn Comcast!! I've been itchin' to see what ya'll say, but I couldn't get on...

Thanks to All for your replies. MP, your tip about quieting the boxman is well-noted. Thank you. I never thought of that.

There's a lot of good advice about how to start a second hand; I like that everyone agrees that the table should still be sparse. I was 'lucky' and got pushed out by the crowds on all my previous wins--the result was that I took all my profits and had time to talk to ya'll and think out a strategy that I could be comfortable with. I like the idea of going back with a base betting regimen set to an upper loss limit. The good thing about the replies to my question is, ya'll seem unanimous in your strategies, and even your secondary loss limits resemble each other as a percentage.

The next time I get a chance at a second hand, I'll start outright with the betting regimen I use after the regression--$54 Across, $5 PL w/ 2-4x odds with a goal of parlaying a 'signature' number 4x while 'up one unit' on everything else. I'm real comfortable with that amount when I'm up a couple hundred. I think that system adapts to both popular notions--start without the large bet, and attempt to continue the play (and betting) that proved initially profitable.

The best part of this regimen is, as you advise, it starts where I "left off" without the heavy risk of the before-regression bet.

Thanks, Guys!

[freak]

Good topic. I'm enjoying the responses.

These days we almost always take a break when we hit our win goal. Even if it's on the first hand. We don't leave, but we take some time to enjoy being up and talk about the strategy going forward. I certainly see the merits of continuing to play with just a percentage of the profit. Nothing wrong with that provided you have good discipline. We (and I guess I really mean ME) don't always have that. We are just learning good discipline, so to reinforce that we need to learn discipline, and consistantly "play our play," we take a break when we're up 20%+ because that's the plan and all parts of the plan are part of good discipline. All parts of the plan need to be practiced. It's hard to leave sometimes when the table feels hot, but banking the sure win always feels good once we get away from the pit.

Reading all of this I think we should revise our plan such that if we go up 50% on the first hand, we lock up $35% and see if we can turn that 15% into more winnings. We actually pretty much did just that this past weekend. Leaving the table up $255 over our $500 buyin we took a short break than played two more sessions with a tiny $55 buy in. Our play had to be pretty conservative but in both mini sessions we turned $55 into $100. So we had a guaranteed win of $200 and in the end managed a win of $355. Since we've seen this can be successful might as well sanction it as an official plan.

What we need to AVOID doing is going up and down for an hour until we're finally up 18% (or 15%) and continuing to play trying to get those last few bucks to achieve our goal. We're essentially putting our entire win at risk in a few hands. Better to take a break and make a fresh start in a later session.

[dork]

I'm gonna add to this thread about today's session because it's progression and ending are kind of related to my original question, if not at least to the replies I'd received...

I started at 430 a.m. playing Dave's Don't ($5DC w/30 Lays) on two other shooters, and tiptoeing into my own hands with a $5PL w/4-6x Odds and the ATS bet until I got confident enough to play $90 Inside on 3 numbers with a PL bet and odds.

For a little over an hour I hovered between up $80 and down from ~ $70 to a spike of $140 (back-to-back DC Lays busted by both shooters; one time). I just couldn't keep a roll going. Every time I got the dice, it was like trying to get a feel for them all over again; the other shooters held them long enough that it'd feel like the dice were a brand new experience. A couple times I'd cover my bets with the regression and recoup from down 'whatever' to up to almost $200. I decided early on that when I got to that point, I'd allot $200 minus $100 minus gas money (so...$74) for a 'last test'. Twice I'd roll a seven just after recouping the $74--so I was back to ~ up $200. The first time was at 5:00 a.m., and the second time was at 5:30.

But at 5:45, I got the dice again. By this time, I'd had enough hands that the dice felt comfortable from the beginning; I'd felt cheated on 5:30's roll. I rolled enough to quit ahead $550 and folded my tent. This was the best feel I had for the dice all morning. Tight rolls, dead cat bounce into the actual chosen target area, good numbers, all of that.

I quit because I had struggled so hard to keep "afloat" until the hand came. Once it did, I felt like I'd been at the table too long. It didn't feel like I was tired, but I'd been up since 0415, mostly because I couldn't sleep, so I took that into account and vamoosed. (Heavy's rule--"one hour and out"--and I was long past that deadline. That's the "tired" I felt--it was a 'tired' of conscience more than anything else.) All day today at home, I felt like driving back down immediately--that's how good the dice felt. I didn't of course--there's no telling how full the table would be after 9 a.m.

There's a 'belief' a lot of blue-collar workers (at least, I think) have that fits here... if you're gonna ask a question, you better fall in line with the advice/recommendations you get when someone takes the time to answer. I just wanna say... I followed ya'lls advice; ya'll didn't just talk to hear yourselves...

I'm reporting that ya'lls advice of allotting a small percentage for a further 'table test' after a 'well-paying' hand worked--I hung around past my '20% winnings' because I didn't lose those subsequent "trial" hands--they didn't make any money, but I held out 'up 200' until a real "decision" came on a hand. If it had been early on in today's session, or at a less ungodly hour where I wouldn't have doubted my cognizance, I'd have reapportioned for another 'table test' and tried again, ala Shunkaha's (and MP's) "re-dipping" recommendation.

My thanks to MP, Tgold, Maddog, Shunkaha, et. al., for your advice and encouragement! After the tip, I'm up an extra $275 over my first $200. That wouldn't have happened a couple days ago.

[freak]

Super cool report. I enjoy the way you write and think about the game. Remind me, where are you? It would be cool to play together sometime.

L and I talked and agreed to modify our play in the same style. Actually, we have been unofficially doing this the last few trips, turning $50 into $100 twice in a final session. Nice to now have that move "sanctioned" into our rules. We did turn $25 into $165 this past weekend but it was a hail mary, not a "grow our winnings" play. It was a losing weekend. I look forward to the next +20% win to try this out.

[dork]

Remind me, where are you?

Hi Freak, I'm in southern Miss'ippi. I usually play at Biloxi IP now.

[JB85]

dork, nice report.

I think you left at the perfect time. It's pretty rare to have back to back great hands, no matter how good the dice feel. If that hand had come early in your session you would certainly want to stay but after a couple of hours, color up and run when you get that nice hand!!

[London Shooter]

Dork did you play at the IP in early march at all when the forum group was there?

[dork]

No, I didn't. I had two reasons for not signing up. I had a scheduling conflict that I could have possibly have rearranged, but I really wanted a class on betting schemes, exclusively. Secondly, at the time, my toss was UH, and from my last experience there wasn't anyone who delivered the dice that way exclusively, to critique me. Ultimately, I was freed of the previous scheduling conflict and could have made the dates, but I didn't find out until it was too late. Oddly enough, we spent Friday night about 8 miles away and finished breakfast with my wife's aunt and uncle Saturday morning. For a fleeting moment (about *Snap!- that long,) I considered joining the group on the fly at IP or the Grand; but that wouldn't have been nice since there was a fee to meet and I hadn't paid.

[London Shooter]

OK, I knew you weren't on the seminar but just wondered if you happened to be at the tables at the IP at some stage over that time as I spent many hours playing there and wondered if we had been there at the same time.

[pradice]

Hey Dork:

ENjoyed reading your comments... Please remember using the GD word will definitely hurt your Karma in life and games..

This is an absolute truth.....

good luck to all
pradice