Step up and bet on an RR-- win $1.000... now what?

[dork]

I need to lay a psychological background--I apologize for the length of this opening...

I was at the $10 table at IP yesterday. I bought in with $700. I hate playing at the $10 table--but there's always 'way less people there during the times I visit (when I drive for my wife). I play the $10 table if I'm the 6th shooter (maximum) and the $5 table is full. (If I can't get those conditions, go read in the car.) The stakes at the $10 table are psychologically too high because I'm used to a two-hit "3x" regression. On a $5 table, on a point of 6 or 8, I'd bet this only on myself- $90 inside and a $5 PL w/$25 odds. Two hits and I'm down to $26 Across and $25 odds. On the $10 table, if the 6/8 is the point, I'm just barely comfortable with $122 inside and $10/30 odds on the PL. One hit and I'm down to $32 inside and 10/20 PL. It's not that I've got no confidence in my ability to roll 2 points regularly, but I don't like the exposure of $160 per roll when it's my money. Granted, if I'm rolling for a second paying instance, the exposure is ~ $100 which is the same as my 3x-two hit game on a $5 table, but that first roll makes me itch all over. With that as a background...

There were 5 of us at the $10 table. I rolled the dice 7 times, made a few bucks, the dice cycled around to the shooter on my right and he held the dice for 30 minutes.

I was up $57 at the end of my own roll. I had a feeling--the table seemed 'tolerable'. Usually, I bet only on myself at the $10 table-- on RR's, maybe a Grafstein $10 DC no odds for a maximum of three points and that's it. (I'll play 16 inside and 5PL + 10 odds on an RR on the $5 table, but double that on an RR?? not very often unless I know'em) This time, I just felt like taking a chance and I bet on the RR to my right-- $10 w/$30 odds and $32 inside ballooned to $1063 profit.

I cashed in immediately and left. My feeling was, I hadn't touched the dice in better than half an hour. There's a new strategy I learned recently from you all on how to keep most of the profits, yet press the table for opportunity... that advice was to pocket the bulk of my winnings and allow X dollars (say, 10-15x minimum bet) to try the table one more time for a winner and continue/quit depending on that outcome-- but that process didn't feel valid since I had had no recent time with the dice. My next roll would have felt like a 'very first' throw.

Was I "right" to leave? What would you have done? Three other guys cashed in at the same time, if that influences your decision... in that situation, I might have gotten to shoot almost continuously if I'd stayed.

Instead, we went to dinner. Afterwards, she changed her mind about "going home right after dinner" and wanted to slot some more because some nickel-and-dime reward program started after dinner. So I went back to the $10 table. There were two shooters there so I bought in with $300, rolled for myself and lost $150 and quit. $150 was the limit I'd set for myself; it amounted to three hands with the dice. (I'd lost ~$80 on the second hand- I rolled four times and out. Should I have quit then? For my last hand I had $67; I bet $10PL w/30 odds and $32 inside and lost it. I know that's a hard betting scheme with which to attempt a profit... looking back, I think I should have quit, down that $80. Argh... another lesson 'financed'.)

Please critique my play and decision-making on the 'quit' points. Thanks!

[shunkaha]

For what its worth I seldom let other players decision to color up factor into my decisions, that is unless those coloring up happen to be consistently bringing me profit through their shooting. I also don't use the "I haven't held the dice in X time" rule either, what I prefer is what have my dice being doing on my previous hands. If my hands have been trending well [which is to say my hands either are getting longer or at least are in the range I should profit from] I will opt to shoot again, if they are trending badly or towards what random seems to be then I opt to color up, but that being said if you doubt yourself your best course is to stop at that point. Also if I doubted myself but elected not to immediately stop I wouldn't have anything bet on myself except a passline with no odds until I began to have a feel of whether I was settling in for a good hand or just this side of a PSO etc. The same holds true when I first walk up to a table even if I have played it earlier, the reason for this is I may be fine or I might have some issue that is enough to impact my game without my being able to pinpoint it or even know what that issue was.

I guess in short I think you may have done the right thing, but you may have done it for the wrong reasons... in the end the right move for the wrong reasons is kinder to your bankroll than the reverse situation. It all comes down to feeling comfortable with what your toss has been doing recently and if it was trending better then the opportunity to be alone or nearly alone shooting would have helped you but if it was trending worse then coloring up was wise.

[Bankerdude80]

You kept to your loss limit. I could armchair quarterback your second attempt at the tables, but overall you did the right thing. A win is a win in my book. Take the money and run.

[Mikenomics]

You just never know. I don't like interrupting sessions because you lose track of what the table is doing, how people are betting, and the observations of how people throw.

Every time you approach a table try starting small and betting your profits for that session only. I never had luck with going in hot, ever.

[dork]

Irish, what's "VP"?

How would you guys describe your tiptoeing strategy to test your throw? My first roll back to the table felt pretty good. I bet $10 no odds and threw in 4-2-4 on the ATS bet just in case. I set the dice for 1/5-1/5 on the come out, rolled yo, then the point, and nine more numbers before I seven'd. I didn't make any money, but it felt good enough to lean into the bet on the next hand. Of course, then I lost ~$60 more dollars and should have quit.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

You threw 10 point-cycle numbers in that first hand, and lost money. Can I ask how many point-cycle numbers you generally have to roll to get to a net-profit?


MP

[dork]

MP, that's how I usually test my delivery and/or warm up... $20 on the table, 4-2-4 and a single unit PL bet (maybe it should be DP). In that situation of course, I'm looking to nail at least one end of the ATS; on this occasion I lacked the aces and the 9 and couldn't hit either, and lost 'it all'.

That hand caused me to believe my juju was workin', so I plunked my money down the next time and rolled 4 times and 7'd. Yes, I wish I'd gone $150 across on the first hand, and not $90 inside on the second.

But to answer your question, usually I need 4 successful rolls to come out ahead.