Dice Doctor and the Tunica Data Matchsticks to lumber...pile

[bryfromtheharbor]

Not yet a lumber yard. +$1276

I've added the second set of sessions. The key to this is the bankroll and money management aspect. In writing this I'm assuming that most of you are familiar with Sam Grafstein's Basic Pass Line play. I thought I was the last one to have read his book, but perhaps not. http://www.amazon.com/The-Dice-Doctor-S ... 158042273X

I'm a proponent of the envelope system and I had to use my second envelope at one point. What? Second envelope? Yes that is right I would have been playing all weekend on won$. At one point in the progression a losing session prompted a reset to the starting point again. At that point the bankroll is tallied up to see if I start at the next level or go down a level. I had enough to move up one level using the x20 rule.

This is not as exciting as prop bets or dealer tokes and probably won't garner much discussion, but I'd thought I'd share the numbers from some old school hard nosed craps play. Look at the players who have started small and stuck to their guns. Dylanfreak and $5Bill come to mind. Low vig smart craps and sticking to their rules. Heck I'm going to start a collection too $5Bill.

There is more than one way to skin a cat, but if you break too many of general rules you won't win for long.
1. Bankroll:buy-in (MM)
2. lower HA play
3. limit losses (take a break)
4. Don't chase the steam
5. Qualify shooters
6. sensible pressing (50%)
7. lock-up some winnings


Thanks Gargoil for the data.
This is my passline play for myself and other qualified shooters. In actual play I throw in some DP/DC action and I play place bets on myself, but that is a work in progress. I've tried the Stretch Play, but was missing to many early 5s. Then I tried the inside and had some success, but the PSO hurts at $154 or $110 before the ISR. I'm thinking some kind Of ISR with the rest of the Grafstein play after regression. I've dug out of holes with the $60 6&8 down to $36 up and out. I'm starting to recognize a pattern with better hands after being at the table awhile; 2-3 hands 30min-1 hour. I'll be addressing my warm-up in the room. Thanks for the Iron Board tip! I can't believe I didn't figure that out on my own. I would have liked to seen these results with the Come Replacement Play, but it is mind numbing just running the passline portion.

This is tight play with modest bankroll requirements. I assumed the tables in Tunica were $10, so $210 is needed for 10 players the extra $20 is for tips.... $5000 BR $210 for each session. I put the stake in the front rack to the right side. My place bet stake goes front left. Wins go in the rear Lock-up rack.

$10 Table $230 Buy-In Grafstein Basic Pass Line.

Session begins
5-5P-6-6P-8-3-7out -8
7-10-3-7out -20
8-4-6-6-12-9-7out No Bet
8-7out No Bet
4-8-7out No Bet
5-7out No Bet
9-4-8-6-7out No Bet
6-6P-6-4-7out -20
7-4-7out -20 Rail 172
6-5-5-9-8-12-3-8-6P-5-6-5P-7-7-8-9-5-11-6-6-4-6-2-3-8P-9-10-8-7out +80 Rail 252
9-8-5-8-4-9P-7-6-6P-11-4-4P-5-6-10-5P-7-5-4-8-5P-10-5-4-2-8-8-5-4-6-5-7out +124 Rail 376
7-9-3-8-7out -20
5-3-4-5P-5-7out -20
8-9-10-8P-2-8-7out -20 Rail 316
9-10-4-11-11-4-8-8-4-10-2-10-8-3-5-6-8-5-11-5-11-6-7out No Bet
5-5P-5-7out -20
Session ends $296 in the rail up +$66 Not enough to make it to next level next session $230.

Session begins Buy-In $230 $10 Table
5-9-4-5P-7-9-7out -10
9-9P-6-6P-2-4-6-12-7out -13
11-7-6-7out -10
5-8-3-3-7out No Bet
3-11-9-5-7out No Bet
4-4O-10-7out -20
11-3-7-3-9-10-7out -20 Rail $157
9-6-10-11-7out No Bet
8-11-5-8P-6-7out -20
9-8-5-9P-9-5-7out -20
6-9-10-8-5-6P-4-10-7out -20
2-4-11-8-8-10-6-6-6-2-2-2-12-5-12-4P-10-3-8-6-7out -20
10-10P-11-2-5-7out - -50 Rail $47
3-10-6-9-7out No Bet
4-10-6-7out No Bet
6-8-6P-8-5-11-10-5-8P-10-12-6-9-7out -8
5-8-8-8-9-8-10-4-10-10-3-9-9-5P-9-9P-4-3-8-8-10-5-9-8-5-5-5-7out -8 Rail $31

Session ends
$31 in the rail down -$199 for the session. -133 running total

Session begins Buy-in $230 $10 Table
8-5-10-7out No Bet
9-9P-6-7out -20
10-6-8-9-6-5-2-9-10P-3-8-2-11-10-8P-6-11-8-6P-5-6-9-8-6-10-8-12-9-3-8-6-4-3-5P-7-6-7out +93 Rack $343
5-3-8-9-11-7out No Bet
5-9-11-6-6-9-8-7out No Bet
9-7out No Bet
2-8-9-12-7out No Bet
5-5P-4-6-5-7out -20
6-7out No Bet
6-10-4-7out No Bet
9-4-9P-6-10-6P-7-9-7out +7 Rail $330
2-6-8-8-8-7out No Bet
10-11-4-7out No Bet
4-5-3-2-6-3-7out No Bet
8-3-6-10-3-2-9-6-9-9-4-4-6-9-11-7out No Bet
10-9-11-10P-6-8-4-8-6P-4-7out -8 Rail $322
11-11-10-8-11-9-5-10P-7-4-7out +15 Rail $337
4-8-3-10-5-11-4P-7-7-3-7-5-6-4-6-3-7out -20 Rail $317
4-8-7out No Bet
10-8-7out No Bet
7-5-2-5P-10-9-6-3-9-5-7out -20 Rail $297
10-7out No Bet
10-7out No Bet
8-12-8P-4-6-6-4P-5-9-7out -1 Rail $296
8-6-5-5-12-3-8P-9-5-11-6-6-8-3-5-11-2-6-6-8-5-10-4-2-11-7out -20

Session ends
Rail $276 + 46 for session -67 running total


Session begins Next $230 Buy-in Still can’t move to next level.

7-12-9-8-5-5-6-10-6-3-6-6-8-10-10-10-2-9P-5-2-3-7out -10
8-9-7out No Bet
8-10-10-9-5-10-9-9-7out No Bet
11-11-10-5-9-8-5-10P-12-10-8-10P-8-10-7out +15 Rail $235
6-11-6P-11-10-5-6-8-10P-6-5-7out Push
6-7out No Bet
8-9-7out No Bet
6-2-7out No Bet
4-4P-6-7out -20 Rail $215
5-7out No Bet
11-12-3-8-7out -40 Rail $175
7-9-10-8-9P-8-5-4-8P-9-7out +18 Rail $193
7-6-11-8-10-4-6P-8-5-7out -8 Rail $185
6-9-6P-4-3-5-9-9-6-8-9-9-7out -20
6-6P-7-6-7out -10
10-4-6-10P-5-5P-10-5-7out -5 Rail $150
7-6-5-7out -20 Rail $130
Session ends -100 for session Running total -$167


Session begins Buy-in $230
9-7out No Bet
5-5P-3-6-6P-8-11-6-9-9-8P-6-9-9-7out +5
6-8-9-7out No Bet
7-3-8-9-9-9-6-5-6-6-9-9-6-7out -20 Rail $205
5-8-6-6-9-5P-10-6-9-8-5-5-7out -20 Rail $185
11-9-5-6-9P-8-8P-11-11-8-3-8P-9-7out +141 Rail 326
9-9P-8-2-10-7out -20
7-9-7out No Bet
7-8-6-5-5-8P-12-5-10-6-6-4-6-10-9-10-4-3-7out -33 Rail 293
2-8-5-7out No Bet
5-2-4-6-3-8-6-5P-6-5-7out -20 Rail 273
11-8-8P-5-11-10-2-5P-9-9P-2-6-9-8-11-7out +66 rail 339
5-12-8-8-10-4-6-6-6-9-4-6-3-6-8-6-8-9-7out No Bet
session ends
Up $109 for the session -$58 running total

Howard, Heavy and Gargoil long rolls then out. The rail is over $330 now I can move to next level $15 Passline and $15-16 odds
Session begins
6-11-9-11-8-11-5-9-8-5-5-11-8-4-11-7out No Bet
7-6-7out -30 Rail 300
4-5-11-5-6-7out No Bet
9-4-5-6-9P-4-10-3-4P-5-8-5P-5-6-12-5P-10-2-10P-4-10-6-5-6-5-12-8-10-9-8-9-5-10-10-8-6-6-10-8-5-6-10-7out +149 Rail 479
10-8-4-8-5-2-5-10P-5-9-5P-2-11-6-8-9-6P-2-12-3-7-5-6-4-5P-8-6-6-6-7out +45 2-12-3 Really? Good grief
Session ends
Session up $194 with $524 in the rail. Running total +$136

Session begins: With over $430 in the rail I can move to next level $20PL single odds
8-6-5-6-7out No Bet
9-6-5-8-6-8-7out No bet
7-6-7out -40
8-7out No Bet
5-7out No Bet
10-5-10P-11-6-11-6P-6-9-6P-6-9-8-6P-2-7-7-7-6-8-7out +242 Rail 632
11-9-2-5-8-5-11-9P-10-4-8-10P-5-3-7out +65 Rail 697
4-5-10-8-5-6-9-5-3-3-7out No Bet
9-5-5-7out No Bet
9-7out No Bet
7-4-3-4P-8-8P-9-8-10-8-7out +55 Rail 752
8-6-8P-9-4-3-7out -40
10-4-9-11-6-6-11-4-8-11-7out No Bet
10-10P-6-8-7out -40 Rail 672
7-3-7-5-4-7out -40 Rail 632
3-9-4-6-9P-5-4-8-4-7out -40 Rail 592
3-4-8-8-9-4P-6-9-5-6P10-9-6-7out -6
6-6P-3-9-11-7out -40
8-5-8P-10-5-5-5-4-10P-6-6P-6-8-10-8-6P3-8-8P4-9-10-6-6-7out +180 Rail 726
6-7out No Bet
10-7out No Bet
6-6P-11-3-6-7out -20 Rail 706
Session ends
Session up $276 With over $500 in the rail I move up to next level. $25 PL single odds.
Running Total + 412

[heavy]

2-12-3 Really? Good grief

See, sometimes see a horn - bet a horn really works.

[bryfromtheharbor]

Added sesions
Session begins
Buy-in $530 at next level $25 single odds (hey now I wouldn't care about playing on the higher limit tables)
10-5-6-4-3-11-8-9-6-9-9-6-3-7out No Bet
11-11-8-9-5-2-10-2-10-4-4-11-11-12-4-2-4-4-6-11-9-5-12-5-7out -25The field of dreams
5-11-4-4-7out No Bet
10-6-5-7out No Bet
8-4-8P-4-10-4P-11-7-7-4-9-8-3-10-4P-9-7out +310 $815 on the rail
5-4-6-11-6-4-2-7out No Bet
4-6-5-11-6-6-8-8-7out No bet
8-6-11-7out No bet
9-4-7out No bet
Session ends Up $285 with $815 on the rail. There is over $630 on the rail so we move to next level $30PL single odds Up $697 Running Total


Session begins
Buy-in $630 at next level $30 single odds
5-5P-9-9P-8-3-9-4-10-10-4-4-9-8P-8-8P-5-5P-6-10-7out +254 $884 In The Rail
6-8-6P-4-9-6-4P-10-12-5-11-10P-11-9-12-8-8-5-6-8-7out +155 $1039 In The Rail
8-8P-6-5-8-5-10-9-8-10-6P-7-10-7out +31 $1070 In The Rail
9-11-9P-5-6-10-4-5P-10-9-5-11-11-6-2-8-3-7out +5 1075 In The Rail
4-9-9-8-9-7out No Bet
6-5-8-3-7out No Bet
3-7-7-9-5-9P-7-7-7-2-6-4-6P-10-5-5-4-10P-3-7-12-12-7-8-3-5-8P-10-12-8-11-8-4-5-6-3-11-11-5-9-5-5-10P-11-5-8-10-5P-10-3-6-5-8-7out +591 $1666 In The Rail
5-9-7out No Bet
6-6P-8-4-7out -60 1606 In Rail
Session ends + 976 with $1606 in the rail. Low and behold over $730 in the rail. Next session we move to $35 PL single odds $1673 Running Total

Session begins
Buy-in $730 $35 PL and single odds
7-6-11-11-12-10-8-5-7out -70 $660 In The Rail
6-7out No Bet
8-7out No Bet
6-7out No Bet
8-9-4-5-4-8P-7-6-8-12-7out -35 625 In The Rail
12-8-8P-7-5-2-4-8-6-7out -35 590 In The Rail
2-10-7out No Bet
9-9P-6-9-7out -70 $520 In the rail
11-7-2-3-8-3-6-3-7out -140 $380 in the Rail. Ouch! Very bad hand for the Dr.
Broke the $300 loss limit. This session is over taking a break and will re-start with $380 In The Rail.
6-4-7out
2-10-6-8-6-4-8-5-3-11-5-9-6-6-5-6-5-6-5-7out
2-8-4-8P-8-8P-7-2-6-11-8-11-12-8-7out
3-7-4-7out
9-10-7out
7-7-6-9-7out
9-3-11-5-3-7out
12-6-3-8-8-8-7out
12-12-6-6P-6-5-7out
9-5-5-6-11-10-6-5-9P-9-5-3-7out
9-7out
8-10-4-8P-6-4-6P-3-7-11-6-6P-5-9-11-11-8-11-7out
7-3-5-6-5P-10-6-4-8-9-9-7out
Session ends

Session begins
Buy-in $380 to finish my 10 shooters @ $35PL single odds
8-11-6-8P-6-5-7out -70 $310 In The Rail
9-6-7out No Bet
8-9-8P-8-8P-4-4P-7-6-9-2-6P-6-5-8-3-12-7out +232 $542 In The Rail
12-3-11-5-7out No Bet
2-7-5-9-4-7out No Bet
11-4-8-2-6-12-6-5-5-11-10-3-5-8-7out -70 $472 In The Rail
6-7out No Bet
8-10-3-8P-10-5-7out -70 402 In The rail
4-7out No Bet
11-9-6-8-3-4-7out No Bet
3-6-7out No Bet
6-5-9-10-12-10-9-8-9-6P-11-5-6-8-7out -35 367 In The Rail
8-8P-8-4-6-12-4-5-12-7out -70 $297 In The Rail
11-9-12-9P-6-7out +15 $312 In The Rail
9-4-7out No Bet
5-3-12-10-5P-5-6-7out -71 $241
6-8-2-10-5-9-7out No Bet
Session ends -$489 with $241 in the rail. Far Below $730 in the rail. Next session we move back down to our starting level PL single odds $1,184 Running Total.

We will assess our total bankroll to see if we start at the next level using the 5% of total bankroll total BR=$7184 x 5%= $359 is over $330 so I move up one level to $15PL single odds. Starting the passline progression all over again.

Session begins
Buy-in $330 15pl single odds
4-7out No Bet
8-10-4-8P-8-9-6-9-9-8P-6-6P-5-10-6-9-7out +26 356 in the rail
10-9-7out No bet
6-8-8-7out No Bet
5-8-5P-3-9-8-10-6-3-10-9P-8-6-4-4-3-9-8-9-6-7out +23 379 in the rail
10-5-4-9-8-7out No Bet
10-11-11-8-7out No Bet
5-2-10-9-7out No Bet
10-10P-3-11-5-10-5P-8-9-7out -10 369 in the rail
7-8-5-8P-6-4-8-5-10-8-4-7out -7 362 in the rail
7-9-6-4-10-6-6-9P-10-6-6-5-8-3-10P-5-4-8-9-8-6-9-8-6-10-10-9-7out +60 422 in the rail
Session Ends +92 with $422 in the rail. Lower than the needed $430 in the rail. Next session we stay at to $15 PL single odds
+$1276 Running Total

[Operator]

nice going bry

[bryfromtheharbor]

nice going bry

Operator I didn't make this play up. I just used the data to run the numbers.
In live action the passline was profitable 5 of 6 sessions. I wasn't even really tracking it that way at first, but since my wife was playing the box #s and I was playing the line I was able to count up my portion easy. When we were back in LV I was playing both PL and box #s and started separating the lock-up rack. I didn't record the exact figures though.

MP wrote an article will winning 50% of your passline point make you rich or stinking rich... Very good read btw.
Dr. Sam does not like multiple odds, but Im thinking that his advice should be tweeked for DI play.

[Mad Professor]

MP wrote an article "Will winning 50% of your Passline Points make you rich or...stinking rich?".. Very good read btw.

Hi Bry,

Yeah, that particular piece was part of my How an SRR-6.5 Shooter Can Double and Then Keep Re-Doubling his $1000 Bankroll…With Virtually NO Risk-of-Ruin series.


MP

[bryfromtheharbor]

Added sessions and nice profit each hand. Wow nice hand Vinyl! This was just the Pass Line.

H-4PT,7 OUT… No Bet
LD-7,8PT,5,11,11,12,5,11,8PT,-5PT,11,2,12,9,10,9,8,6,7 OUT… -7 Rail 323
GH-5pt,8(h),6,10,9,6,6(H),12,6,5PT-2,9PT,9PT,-3,11,11,8PT,7 OUT… +15 Rail 338
G-4PT,10,2,3,7 OUT… No bet
CT-12,8,5,7 OUT… No Bet
DL-4PT,3,9,8,5,10,9,9,11,7 OUT… No Bet
HRR-5PT,6,9,6,8,2,4,7 OUT… No Bet
L-8PT,10(H),6,8PT-10PT,8,11,9,10PT-5PT,6,11,10,8,10(H),5PT,-8PT,7 OUT… +50 Rail 383
H-5PT,6,3,5PT,-8PT,6,11,10(H),6,8PT,-10PT,11,9,9,11,10PT,-6PT,10,3,4,5,2,9,10(H),5,7 OUT…+43 Rail 426
S-7,5PT,12,6,12,9,8,6,8,5PT,-9PT,8,2,11,7 OUT… +5 Rail 431
LD-8PT,11,8PT,-10PT,10PT,-8PT,12,4,3,7 OUT… +5 Rail 436
Session ends +136 with $431 in the rail which qualifies us for the next level 20 PL single odds.
Running total $1372

LD-6PT,6PT,9PT,11,7 OUT… - 40 Rail 390
VG-4(H) PT,6,5,11,6,9,5,11,8,7 OUT… No Bet
SO-2,3,9PT,9PT,-10PT,11,3,8,8,5,4,7OUT… -40 Rail 350
LD -9PT,5,8,8,8,6,5,9PT,-6PT,6PT,-9PT,9PT,-10PT,10PT,-10PT,6,8,7 OUT… +128 Rail 478
VG -4(H)PT,10(H),3,5,3,6,5,6,8,5,9,6,5,9,3,12,7 OUT. … No Bet
LD -5PT,5PT,-10PT,3,8,9,4,8,4,12,5,5,3,8,8,6,8, 7 OUT… -40 Rail 438
LD -5pt, 7 out… No Bet
VG -12,6PT,8,3,10,8(H)PT,-4PT,5,6,5,5,7 OUT… No Bet
LD -8PT,9,12,9,5,3,9,7 OUT…No Bet
VG -9PT,6,8,7 OUT…No Bet
LD -3,7,4PT,7 OUT… -40 Rail 398
VG -8PT,4,5,6,8PT,-10PT,8,9,8,8,6,6(H)6,8(H),9,10PT,-7,7,8PT,8PT,-5PT,10(H),9,4(H),8,10,6,8,6,9,5PT,-3,7,10PT,5,4,9,11,8,6,9,11,5,9,9,9,8,7OUT…+270 Rail 668
VG -5PT,6,3,8,9,9,2,6,8,9,8,6,10(H) 7 OUT…No Bet
Session ends +238 with $668 in the rail which qualifies us for the next level 25 PL single odds.
Running Total $1610