When to jump in . . .

[heavy]

Those of you who have attended one of the seminars or spent much time on one of my forums through the years no doubt recall one of my pet phrases - "Don't jump into the water with both feet." If you ever happen to be standing near the craps pit in Atlantic City when about a dozen of those tour buses arrive you know exactly what I mean. Suddenly forty or fifty players make a jail break run for the nearest table, crowding around and throwing their buy-ins on the layout regardless of whether the dice are out or not - calling all sorts of working action in the process - without giving any thought whatsoever of what the history of the table - or the shooter is. I know, some of you think charting is just a notch above dice voodoo. All I can tell you is that charting tables has saved me a lot of money though the years.

A lot of players take different approaches to protecting themselves from a cold (or hot if you are a don't player) table. One of the most common strategies is a follow the trend play. However, instead of betting the same as the last decision and risking a chance of getting whip-sawed, a lot of players like to bet the decision BEFORE the last decision. Let's say the last 12 decisions have looked like this:

P - D - P - P - D - D - D - P - D - P - P

Our "bet the same as the decision before last" player would watch the first to hands, then bet Pass Line on the third hand. And, he'd win. Now what you do from this point is up to you, but my choice is to continue to bet the CURRENT trend until I lose. Then I'd go back to the decision before the last decision for my next bet. So in the above example I would have two Pass decisions in a row. Then I would lose on the next decision because it went to the Don'ts. That would complete my first series. I would watch the next decision (the second D) then bet the decision before last - also a D. And I'd win that bet. I would continue to bet D, and lose the next bet. Then I'd watch the next decision before placing my next bet. I always want to be following the trend - not ducking the trend.

As long as we're (sort of) on the topic of charting - let me give you guys a very basic refresher on some things to look for. First off, before putting any major action in play (I don't care if you make small Pass or Don't Pass bets while charting, but refrain from doing much more than 2X odds until you get a read on what's happening) I want you to record a minimum of twelve rolls. I'll just make some numbers up here:

7 - 11 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 7 - 5 - 9 - 12 - 7 - 8 - 5

Okay, what the hell does that tell me? Well, it's sort of a mixed bag. In twelve tosses we've had three passes made. That sounds good. But the passes have all been on naturals. There have been no points set and made. However, the table is showing one clear dominant number - the five. What else? Well, the shooter tossed a couple of horn numbers. And one of them, the twelve, was a precursor to the seven. Guys, if you've hung around me much through the years then by now this should not be a surprise to you. Horn numbers are frequently precursors of the seven. Don't think so? Watch for it when we're in Biloxi next month. Do we have enough information to know whether or not we want to put any action on the table yet? Well, again it is a mixed bag. But I think there's something for just about everyone in there.

Now - it's your turn. I'd like some of you to jump in and tell me how you'd bet the next dozen or so tosses based on the numbers you see above. Once a few of you have chimed in I'll give you my thoughts.

[OwnTheFelt]

Hmmmmm....Definitely will not be making any place bets; too many sevens. I would like to see the 7s balance out a bit before playing the do side. Looks like you can Lay the point since two shooters failed to convert it (Wouldn't lay the 5 since it is rolling quite a bit). Possibly play the 5 for 2-3 rolls then come down. There are a ton of plays developing on this hand....too bad these rolls are made up and not actual casino rolls; wonder how well my dice voodoo would have done???

Heavy,

When in your dice career did you begin charting tables? Why did you choose to do it?

[heavy]

OTF - back in 1994 they opened the Riverboats up in Louisiana. I went from being a 3 - 4 times a year junket player to being a 3 - 4 times a month player. Playing that frequently meant I had to do a better job of managing my money. So I took a tip from John Patrick and started charting. This would have been around 1996, I suppose - around the same time that I started noticing that some shooters (regulars in the joints I haunted) were consistently better shooters than others. And that's how I discovered the whole dice-setting thing. Note that I do not claim to have "invented" anything as regards dice control, although in later years I believe I had some impact on how a LOT of people throw the dice. In addition, there were a few terms and phrases that found their way into the game that had their origins either with yours truly or on some of the forums I've been involved with. But the credit for charting all goes to Patrick.

[OwnTheFelt]

Heavy

I am interested in learning some of the things you picked up. Were you the person who suggested shooting from the table (fingers on table then throw?) Interesting stuff Heavy!

[heavy]

Yeah, as far as I know I was the first guy who actually taught players to shoot from the deck. When I first started out with the DI concept I shot primarily from straight out and always shot from the deck at that position. When I moved around closer to stick I started incorporating a little backswing for some reason or another. But I'd pretty much abandoned that by the time we did the video of the seminar in 2005. At that class I was teaching the from-the-deck shot, although occasionally I'd lapse into the old backswing throw. For the most part, though, I had pretty much abandoned the backswing by then.

From my point of view, I was trying to eliminate all of excessive "degrees of freedom" in the dice. That's a "Sharpshooter" term. Whenever you pick the dice up off the table you automatically introduce degrees of freedom on your toss. For example, when you look down your arm at the dice after you pick them up they may appear to be level with the deck. In fact, your perspective is skewed because of the angle you are looking at the dice from and they are not level. Don't believe it? Set up a video camera behind you and check it out.

I'll have some more thoughts later - but work calls. Ah, the life of a grunt.

[memo]

Heavy,

Voodoo or not, I am begining to see a lot of merit to charting, table awareness, or what ever you may want to call it. Personally, I get caught up in the future of the game, and tend to give little thought about what has just happened.

To those that say...It makes no difference, well, I can only site the times I have witnessed you turn off your bets just before a hand ending seven. That could be selective memory..True.

At the very least, playing the game while considereing future, present and past can only enhance ones perception of the circumstances. Sharpening your playing skills...No matter what you think about the Voodoo. Doing such a thing seems like a lot to keep together at one time...(I am not talking about turning off your bets, because the last roll was a hard ten)

I am kinda with OTF here. Very interseting. Right now, the only thing I get out of that string of numbers..really, is that things are not going well. We need to put a hand together or move on.

Memo