What do you expect to earn/leave on a nice 40+ hand?

[freak]

Lana came over last night so we played on the home table and WOW, L got a great hand right off the bat. I wasn't recording rolls but my guess is she tossed about 40 numbers. Hit four unique points and one point twice She had the ATS complete except for 2, 6 & 12. Then wiped it with a CO7. Then nearly completed it a 2nd time when another CO series reset it. Then had the small complete except the 3, but only the 8 on the tall when she finally sevened out. After the hand we all counted and everybody was ahead but of course by different amounts. L was playing the MiniMP at first but had stopped pressing. Lana was indecisive, sometimes on the PL and sometimes putting up DCs. In the end she did get paid for a DC with odds behind the 6. I started out with $60 each on the 6&8 and regressed after the first hit. Then built up and out. I had a $90 8 when the devil showed.

It always seems like I never quite earn what I thought I should have on a hand like this. A few times I took same bet. And I had a lot on the PL when she sevened out because that last point was off of a 7 - 7 - 11 comeout and I had parlayed from $25 to $50 to $100.

Anyway, I'm curious what other players expect to earn on a 40 roll hand. I know exactly what I made and what I left on the table, but before I share that I wonder...

What would YOU expect to earn on a 40 roll hand with 5 points?

What would you expect to leave on the table?

[heavy]

It would be very difficult for me to give you an accurate answer because there are too many variables to factor in. What's the status of my bankroll at the time this hand takes off? What is the table minimum and maximum? What odds are allowed? A 40 minute hand at the Fremont won't net me nearly as much as a 40 minute hand at their sister property, Main Street Station. What numbers were repeating most frequently? If My pre-planned approach to the game focuses largely on the six and eight and the shooter's hand yields mostly outside numbers and trash, I don't make squat. I have noticed on a lot of good hands that the amount I leave on the table when the seven shows often is roughly equal to what I took off the table - so if I made $1K then I left $1K up for the seven. Closer than that to an answer - I can't get.

[Michael]

Like Heavy there are too many variables to give an accurate answer.
I will give an example.
Trip before last a crew member rolled a 44 hand.
I won almost $800 dollars and left about $500 on the table.
That was one hand, each hand is different.
Hope that helps and like you I felt I should have won more.

[bryfromtheharbor]

[freak]

$10 table. $1000 buy in. First roll of the night from a trusted shooter. Good mix of box numbers. Average trash. The 8 rolled seven times.

[dork]

There's no way to gauge; you haven't said what numbers were rolling. However, I think I should be up a couple thousand, if I were to play and stick to 'my' system...assuming the point is established as an inside number, PL w/5x odds, $90 Inside, regression to $54 Across after two hits, with reduction to 3x PL Odds. 'Parlay' the next box number rolled 3-4x before taking any profit on that repeater. 'Up one unit' on all other box numbers. Regress to $54 Across after the second point is made; stack 7-10x Odds on a $10-15 PL bet from the 3rd point (depending on the length of the 'second' roll), increasing the PL wager by $5 every winner after that with 10x Odds, still regressing the Box numbers to $54 each time the point is made. If I'm up $3-400, I'll reduce to $44 Across, leaving the parlayed number's money alone; but all the other place bets are at their minimums.

I've been 'a loser' many times, counting my $500-700 winnings and watching the dealer rake in $3-600 off my place bets on the appearance of the Red. Nowadays I don't hardly ever leave more than $150 on the box numbers after a point is made (that with the consideration that I might have $108 on the 6 or 8 or $140 on the 5 or 9, or $90 on the 4 or 10 (3rd parlays). I gotta get paid; I make less, but I make less 'than maximum' a lot more times. On a new Come Out (same shooter) I'll regress my place bets a lot--most of the time leaving the parlay to play if I'm ahead a decent amount, but reducing all other bets to one unit, and stack anywhere from $50-200 on the PL Odds (6-10x) as "consolation/compensation". (I'm still allowing the first box number to parlay 3-4x without taking a profit on that lone number until the 3-4th repeater. The guy who taught me that idea has always wanted me to leave it up until the 5th winner, but I haven't got the nerve yet. Then again, I've only seen a 5-point hand once. And I've only missed the 5th parlay twice in a year's play that I can remember.)

edit: I just gamed your numbers with my 'system'. Taking on the 4th parlay never occurred because the points that were parlayed 3x became the new point; however I did take down that entire 3x place bet both times and moved it to $140 PL Odds on the point of 5, and one time I did the same with the Place 6 as it became the point (move a 3x parlayed '6' to PL odds). The gaming software says I would have won a net $969, leaving $272 on the table at the 7 out (5 lost $60, 6 lost $24, 8 lost $48, 9 lost $60, 10 lost $20, 4 lost $5PL and $50 Odds) . That's an interesting exercise, thank you. I was 'waaay off in my projection of the results--"couple thousand"... maybe if I had the nerve to stick to 5x parlays and actually saw one.

[Bankerdude80]

Because of all the unknowns, I would guestimate that at a minimum, at least a couple hundred dollars to who knows? If there are several repeaters in there, it would be easy to have the number pressed up to where it is throwing off black chips. Again, too many variables to be specific. If it is a trusted shooter, I would probably have a PL bet with odds and two place bets to start. Once I recoup the initial outlay, I would start to expand my bets to have all the numbers covered. I would begin a conservative press schedule and become progressively aggressive as the numbers rolled.

[heavy]

Just as another example - and without trying to embarrass anyone, I can think of a couple of board members who would not have made a dime on the hand because they'd have had a $10 DP out there - waiting for a decision. Whether or not their loss exceeded $10 would depend on whether they invoked the Grafstein "one loss per shooter" rule.

Real world based on the limited info provided I'd hazard a guess at $700 - $800 for most players. That's assuming they're taking pass line with double odds, placing the six and eight for $18 each and pressing up and out. Leaving $500 - $700 on the table. Again, though, that's just an educated estimate.

The real reason we don't win more? That buy in should be $10,000 instead of $1000. Bet ten times as much - win ten times as much . . . sometimes.

[freak]

Thanks for all the feedback guys. This is pretty much what I was looking for. My underlying question really is "Our our earning expectations realistic based on our buy-in, our play and the nice hand that comes along?" When someone gets on a roll like that it starts to feel like they will roll forever. My brain goes into a devil/angle battle. Half of me wants to regress as there is now hundreds of dollars on the table. The other half wants to believe maybe this is the roll where I hit table max. Keep pressing!

"Several hundred and up" feels like a really realistic expectation for the way I think most of us bet. Starting in the $64 across - $110 inside and then pressing or regressing based on your play. I don't see how anyone starting like that plus 2-3X odds could make a few thousand off a hand like this. That seems very unrealistic unless you're really betting 100x odds. Heavy's comment that he leaves about as much on the board as he takes also feels very realistic based on the way I've seen him play. He's willing to invest a lot early to get numbers pressed up and on a hand like this that strategy REALLY pays, even though it also leaves a lot on the table. It's comforting to hear that said out loud. It's not unusual for me to leave 40% - 80% of the amount I racked on the table. That always feels wrong. Hearing a pro say that's what they expect makes it feel much less wrong.

One thing L and I disagree on is constant pressing. She likes to go up big then regress. She does very little pressing after regression. Se's content to just keep taking those $14 or $21 payments and know she won't lose a lot on the last roll. I tend to start pressing right after regression, but my pressing stalls around the $50 per number range. Above that and I get cold feet about having that much on the table. On this hand my 5 never went above $50 but easily could have. My 8 did make it to $90.

Here's the hand as best I can remember it. I'm sure some of it is exact, but much of it is a logical guess based on how I was playing and what I left on the table. I didn't want to give too many details before I got some initial answers. I'm more interested in "gut feeling" than post-roll analysis with an exact play. It's too easy to see a roll and say what you would have done now that you know the numbers. Much more difficult to be at the table while a hand like this develops and decide when to go up, when to press and when to regress.

4 - 5 - 4P - 8 - 5 - 3 - 6 - 10 - 8P - 9 - 5 - 5 - 11 - 9P - 7 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 11 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 5P - 6 - 9 - 5 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 6P - 7 - 7 - 11 - 4 - 5 - 8 - 3 - 5 - 2 - 8 - 3 - 7

We all started with $1000. Lana ended up with $1126. She only lost $20 on the seven out. She kept mixing up her play. Placing the PL after hit points, then fearing the worst and placing DC bets.

L ended up with $1435, losing about $60 on the seven out. She went up with $160 across, took two hits then regressed to $66 inside. Then another regression to $44 inside.

I was playing the point and a $60 6&8 to start. It took me a while to get the first hit and then regress to $18 6&8, $10 5&9. I put the 4 and 10 up towards the end but never got paid on them as placed bets. I ended up with $1566. Respectable I think, bet it felt like I should have earned more like $800. But maybe that's just because I know I lost $392 left on the table. If she'd have hit that last point of 4 it would have been another $250 won and $175 PL + odds returned. As it played out I left the following on the table:

$100 PL bet on the point of 4
$75 odds on the PL
$50 - 5
$42 - 6
$90 - 8
$25 - 9
$10 - 10

Now that you know the exact numbers I'd be interested to hear your projected earnings and losses in detail if anyone wants to take the time. And/or critiques of my play. Thanks again for all the feedback.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Freak,

For me, the MP $204-Across Regression takes all of the coulda, woulda, shoulda guess-work out of the “How should I bet on a skilled-shooter?” question.

In its place, the MP-$204 seeks an OPTIMAL-BALANCE between “taking-versus-making”.

Here is how my approach with the MP-$204 would have fared on your hand:

4 - 5 - 4P - 8 - 5 - 3 - 6 - 10 - 8P - 9 - 5 - 5 - 11 - 9P - 7 - 5 - 8 - 9 - 11 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 5P - 6 - 9 - 5 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 3 - 2 - 5 - 6P - 7 - 7 - 11 - 4 - 5 - 8 - 3 - 5 - 2 - 8 - 3 – 7

~For the 6 or 8 my post-regression $44-Inside press-schedule looks like this:

$12......$18......$30.....$42.....$60.....$90.....$120....
$150....$180.....$240.....$300....$420.....$600
.....$900....$1200, etc.


~For the 5 or 9 my post-regression $44-Inside press-schedule looks like this:

$10....$15.....$25.....$35.....$50.....$75.....$100....$125.....
$150....$200....$250.....$350.....$500....
$750....$1000, etc.


Pre-regression net-earnings…………………………….….+$54

You threw eight post-regression point-cycle 5’s…+$309
($9 + $11 + $25 + $34 + $45 + $80 + $115 + $150)

You threw three post-regression point-cycle 6’s…+$40
($8 + $9 + $23)

You threw seven post-regression point-cycle 8’s…+$296
($8 + $9 + $23 + $31 + $40 + $75 + $110)

You threw three post-regression point-cycle 9’s…+$45
($9 + $11 + $25)

Total net-earnings from that hand……………..…….+$744



EDITED to add:

Total wagers left on the table at point of 7-Out...$377 (which was already deducted from the net-amounts shown above)


RE-EDITED to correct a mistake on the Place-5 payout.



MP

[Riggs]

I enjoyed a 45-minute or so hand this spring at the corporate giant in Chicago area ... guy hit 16 or 17 8s - not sure exactly because he set it as point and made it during roll and that mixed up my pressing schedule data that would tell me how many.
I made about $3,500 on the hand starting with $34 inside and a $10 5 or 9 with $16 odds ... added 4 and 10 off hits on box numbers ... no regression during roll.
Left $1,500 to $2,000 on table at 7-out ... including $900 on 8. As long as loss was half my win that's not that big a deal to me ... if I regress to $54 across or something and he rolls a couple more 8s I am losing out on a couple thousand dollars or more.

[dork]

I just gamed your numbers with my 'system'. Taking on the 4th parlay never occurred because the points that were parlayed 3x became the new point; however I did take down that entire 3x place bet both times and moved it to $140 PL Odds on the point of 5, and one time I did the same with the Place 6 as it became the point (move a 3x parlayed '6' to PL odds). The gaming software says I would have won a net $969, leaving $272 on the table at the 7 out (5 lost $60, 6 lost $24, 8 lost $48, 9 lost $60, 10 lost $20, 4 lost $5PL and $50 Odds) . That's an interesting exercise, thank you. I was 'waaay off in my projection of the results--"couple thousand"... maybe if I had the nerve to stick to 5x parlays and actually saw one.

Left $1,500 to $2,000 on table at 7-out ... including $900 on 8. As long as loss was half my win that's not that big a deal to me ... if I regress to $54 across or something and he rolls a couple more 8s I am losing out on a couple thousand dollars or more.

I'm not a high-roller; losing the opportunity cost of ~$1100 might grind my psyche more than winning the $3500 would make me happy. Just as an exercise for others to consider a different concept, I'd say that having $900 on the 8 wouldn't bother me nearly as much if I have minimum bets on the other box numbers.

I'd regard skimming (say) $1060 off the other numbers as an "$1100" payoff (leaving $10 bets on them) with a $900 place bet-8 still intact. It would still allow me a crack at the big "couple thousand dollars" 'signature' number (if the 8 is the actual most-frequent repeater)--assuming I take most of it down on the next occurrence of the 8; otherwise, to clear the couple thousand, I'd have to hit the 8 twice, and the immediate next hit would have to be a parlay, yes? (this all assumes that the 4 other numbers are "evenly distributed" before the regression--say, ~$200-250 each plus/minus, with the bulk of the pending money as the $900 8.)

But if you'd have regressed to $54 Across, that's a net gain immediately of whatever's there-- "almost $1500-2000". No waiting.... (and no risk)--I'd take that for one roll, and that's why it would grind my chickenlittle asp.

[Riggs]

I understand that totally ... but if the guy rolled 10 more times that would hurt WAY more for me than the pleasure of taking a ton down!

The other numbers were between $150 and $400, if I recall correctly. Passline was $25 with $200 odds.

[freak]

This discussion raises another question. How much of your play is preset and how much is freestyle? When we took Heavy's class he told us (and then showed us live) that he bets very much in the moment. His play and press schedule is constantly adjusted based on table conditions. MP promotes a play that is absolutely pre-set. I like things about both. When I started this journey a few years ago I almost always played "in the moment" and tried to read what the table was giving, zigging and zagging to the table trend. When it works it's great. It feels really good to win on the do and don't within a few minutes of each other. But when you get out of sync it REALLY sucks. So lately I've been playing a fairly set consistent play. We used the mini-MP$96 for our last two trips. We were very strict up to regression. But then went freestyle. L presses less. I press more than her but not quite as much as the MP play calls for. I think some of it comes down to what your psyche can handle. In some way's it's a lot easier to just blindly follow a set play. You never have to second guess yourself for zigging when you should have zagged. Less pressure because there's less decision-making. But then if you stick to it when your spider-sense is telling you to retreat it's hard not to look back and wish you'd been a little more flexible. "Why did I leave that $90 eight up there I just knew the 7 was coming!"

A great benefit of the MP play is it's really easy to analyze after the fact. All of the "play in the moment" plays are impossible to recreate on recorded rolls. It's interesting to see that I made about what I would expect to make off the MiniMP. I do like the PL parlay and I lost $75 that I could have racked because I parlayed. I'm probably playing about as "robotic" as I'm ever going to get. It's just too difficult to always do exactly the same thing with no adjustments based on "intuition."

[London Shooter]

It's interesting to look at what you may have done in practice but you can never be too sure how it will pan out in reality "in the moment". I had a decent hand once where I hit the ATS (I wasn't on it) rolled plenty of box numbers and lost money on the hand due to major balls ups with come betting and 7s at exactly the wrong time for me.......

Also, how many stick changes were there on this hand? How often the cocktail waitress brush your thigh? How many other times did you have your bets off during the roll and miss a couple of juicy pay-offs?

[Mad Professor]

Also, how many stick changes were there on this hand? How often the cocktail waitress brush your thigh? How many other times did you have your bets off during the roll and miss a couple of juicy pay-offs?

When I am using the MP-$204 on other skilled-shooters; I rarely turn my bets off during the point-cycle.

~If it looks like there's going to be gun-fire at or near the table (I play in Detroit quite often ); then I might turn them off until either the shooting is over, or one of the two adversaries decides that this isn't really the hill he wants to die on today.

~Unless the cocktail waitress is especially appreciative of the tip I just gave her, and suddenly decides to thank me by, umm, "honking on Bobo"; then my MP-$204 bets stay up and on.

~Stick-change, weather-change, sex-change, box-change; it doesn't matter. Unless the shooter himself has a heart-attack, shites his pants, or pops an aneurism and drops dead on the spot; my MP-$204 bets stay up and on .


MP

[London Shooter]

and now I have a new slang phrase to add to my repertoire

[freak]

Hoppin' Bobo for $20...

[gargoil]

BACK TO REALITY
The fact of the matter is that you will not know it is a 40+ hand until after roll number 39. If we are naive to think every hand is going to be 10+ than we will all be rich beyond our wildest dreams.

If we are talking about random shooters, I would like to go $12.00 on 6/8 (Heavy's favorite) and then spread across from winnings and do a press / pay play. On a 40+ roll I should make a nice change. On a short roll, the max I stand to lose is $24.00

On a DI I will wait one roll then go $64.00 across and apply the press / pay strategy. Sorry I don't care how many numbers MP will put up I cannot see myself putting $204.00 on the table. (no offense meant to MP or his strategy. It's just how I roll). The most I stand to lose is $64.00 but on a long hand (40+) I stand to win big.

The Garg One.

[freak]

... The most I stand to lose is $64.00 but on a long hand (40+) I stand to win big.

The Garg One.

So what would you expect to win on this hand and leave on the table starting with $64 across?