The big one that got away.......

[AtGame7]

I'm still not sure if I should be glad this hand bailed be out for the night or sick that I didn't really cash in.

Long story short (as I can) I'm pretty comfortable being a $10 DC player these days laying odds on the 4-5-9-10. Last night I walked into a table that just wasn't good for anyone. I kept getting picked off with a second roll YO as I tried to get through the DC or someone would pick off my DC once it traveled only to 7-out the next roll. One of those nights where neither side could win.

I'm buying in for $200-$250 and my bankroll is replenishable so going to the felt isn't gonna kill me. I'm down to $60 or so when again I get hit with a second roll Yo and then set up on the 8 only to have it come right back. I decide to place the 6 & 8, see where that goes and then call it a night.

Rivers still has a promotion where they count the rolls a shooter makes and if he gets to 60+ he gets the bounty which is $1000 plus $100 for every day it isn't hit. It was at $2500 last night no pretty easy to figure out nobody (with a players card) tossed 60+ in a couple weeks.

I was stuck so I wasn't pressing like I should be nor was I adding new numbers like I should be and sure enough this guys tosses a 68 roll hand and he just pounded box numbers along the way. He made 6 points, 5 different ones and I ended up coloring up for $600. Walking to the cashier I was just happy not to get cleaned out, but the more I thought about it the more I realized how much I missed out on. By the time the 7 hit I had $15 each on the 4-5-9-10 and $30 each on the $6/8. I know I had to be cautious because I will getting hammered and all the previous rolls had been less than 10 tosses, but I really should have made a couple thousand on that hand.

How do you feel in this spot? Happy to leave a winner on a night that could have ended bust or disappointed in yourself for letting a monster hand go by without maximizing it?

[Michael]

Like you I'm happy to come out ahead.
Then on my way home I think what could have been and don't feel quite so happy.

[SHOOTITALL]

You cannot look in the rear view mirror. Ya never know squat until the hand is over. We have all been there and done that, get hammered then tippy toe back in and recover and then we count our rack and and realize we are at our buy-in and not take advantage of a beautiful hand and say this cannot go on much longer and and not want to give back a dime and be wrong again just like before.

[dork]

A dealer taught me something that I keep suggesting here... you have to give yourself a chance to win "BIG" money, even if you're a little bettor, or as in my case, a Chicken Little Extraordinaire (par excellence)...

His advice was, I gotta give myself a chance to let some number, any number, pay big. His advice was, on a minimum bet of $26/27 Across on a $5 table, why not risk five dollars? --let it ride 5 times on a number, any number. Chose a number... a lucky number, the next number rolled, your youngest child's age, whatever--you've got 5 Place Bet choices. Parlay one number's winnings 5 times before you take it down. What's the risk, $5?

And so, from that advice I revised an ISR betting scheme that fits both my sense of caution, and satisfies my penchant for greedy play. I've yet to score on a 5x parlay, but I've taken the 4x parlayed payoff countless times on $5 and $10 initial place bets. Each time I took down a 4th parlay, some other number was up-and-coming, and I'd designate it the new number to parlay; sometimes I've consolidated all my place bets into one STEROID place bet and leave 4 other minimum bets and continue a different parlay until I'd approximate a 4x parlay amount).

Look at it this way... a lost (table minimum) $5 bet is a lost $5. Choose the '9'... A 4x $5 parlayed-9 is $134 profit ($5 + a parlay of $5 = $10, parlayed again is $24, parlayed again plus a dollar from you is $60. THAT parlayed $60 plus its' winnings of $84 is $144; take down the 9 except for $5 and you've made $139 on the 9 alone.

Let's specifically examine what you stand to lose if you choose a number and parlay it 4x... you stand to lose whatever you initially bet on that number--all the other numbers, you've given yourself a chance to recoup those bets if you're playing a take and press system--the parlay number, though, that's a loss every time a hand is thrown unless you get to the 4th parlay. It's not that much to risk, even over the long term. If you don't like it, play for 3 parlays; take only the profit from the 3rd repeater--a $5 parlayed '9' will pay $35--that'll pay off your initial place bets. Then parlay the $24 bet for a 4th time and add a dollar--now you're at $60 looking for an $84 payoff and then you've got a decision to make.

You can see the potential if you extrapolate this system across the box numbers as you take down 3x and then 4x parlays as other numbers 'rejuvenate'. For $5, or $10 risk, you can do a lot better than the 'up one unit' betting scheme would allow.

[London Shooter]

I'd be happy to be a winner, though no doubt with some sense of disappointment that I could have done better - I think most of us feel that on the long hands.

However, to recap, you may not even have been around for this hand. People always say "i shoulda pressed more etc" but let's face it, if you had been pressing more earlier in the day you could easily have been out of the game before the monster came along.

[AtGame7]

Shootitall RE: Not looking in rear view mirror. I hear you and you are right, but it's easier said than done when your finally standing there and that monster roll does show up. You are right, though.

London, exactly, lots of things have to happen for me to even be there at that point. Had I been having a good day I would have been lamenting how I had to stand around 40 minutes to get another bet in as I have been sticking to a "two loss per shooter" rule on that DC bet.

Dork, I guess that is part of the reason I am kicking myself. I certainly hate that I min pressed the outside, don't get me wrong, but the 6/8 is where I usually give myself a chance to pick up a nice hit. I always go to $18 each on the first hit, $30 each on the second hit, $48 each on the third hit and then take $104 and down on the fourth hit and I split the remaining $48 between the two and start again only going to $60 before taking $130 and down and splitting to $30

On the 4/10 I try to get to $100 each ASAP 10-25-75-100. This guy tossed seven 10's that I can remember and at least five 4's. I would not have pressed the fifth 10, but I would have taken the sixth 10 to $250. Instead I was collecting $18 and $27 each time it hit. That was just brutal.


At the end of the day I guess anytime I am coloring up for over 2x my buy in I'm happy, no matter what road got me there.

[SHOOTITALL]

Dork: That is one very interesting parlay system. It was similar to one Heavy has used in moving his chips toward the inside but I am prone to like this one a bit more, just having one parlay number.
As long as I have been playing this game, that has not crossed my mind. That has so many possibilities that I am going to noodle on it a while. sia

[VINYLGIRL]

Hey Ategame7,
I must say i have never seen a 60 number hand, but I know one day I see that rare unicorn. To me I agree with Shootitail, never look back at what could have been. You left with double your buy in, I would be excited. Thank you Dork for one number parlay, I will for sure try that next time at the table. I have been working on some betting strategies that fit my rolling.

[luxlogs]

One Number Parley, Interesting, I will add this to my Sam Grafstein Parley Natural DP and DC Bets and my Turn a Dollar into 100 Parley of the Hard 6 or 8.
Your Right though, perfect play by the numbers will only get you even if your lucky. It takes these Goofy Bets to make you a winner. Just remember that after making one of these longshots it's time to color up. Don't give it back.

[bryfromtheharbor]

It is hard not to beat yourself up. It is tough to settle on a betting regiment that will bring home the loot. One system might be better at one point and leave you lacking in another.

I like Dork's one number hero. On nice hands Il usually see some hardway/mad presser make way more than I did. Ill color up and leave for breakfast and thier rack is full. When I come back they are near broke again. Of course this is anecdotal. As Heavy stated if you want to make a ton buy in for 10k you will win a bunch "sometimes".

[freak]

So much of the satisfaction of this game is timing, perspective and perception. On most nights wouldn't you be thrilled to double your buy in? So, from one perspective, the big one didn't get away at all. You cashed in on it. I can relate to your feeling because I've left the casino up monetarily but didn't feel like a winner because I was up a lot more and gave it back on the last roll. I've also left feeling great because our last session was a big winner, even though that didn't bring us back to even for the weekend.

It's pretty rare to get a "perfect" play in craps. The only two I can think of are playing the don't, getting a DC on every number then rolling the seven. All win, no loss. Perfect. Or catching a really nice hand, pressing just like you planned, then turning off just before the seven rolls. All win, no loss. Perfect. Except for situations like those, we can always look back and see something we might have done differently.

On another thread recently someone talked about the need to have a good defense and offense to be successful at craps. I agree with that provided your pre-determined strategy is to swing with the tides of the table. Unlike football, craps doesn't make it obvious when your defense or offense needs to be on the field. So playing both defense/offense can work magic when you're in sync or destroy you if you're out of sync. The other style of play is to decide what your play will be before you ever get to the casino. Pick do or don't as your "offense." Use loss limits and play stoppage as your "defense." We recently switched from a "table reading" strategy to a "set play and stop if it isn't working" strategy. We switched because I was getting super frustrated with missing the good rolls because I was always too timid to get in early. About the time I realized we have a nice hand developing and got in the roll was over. Or I made $20 when others made $300. The good thing about our current style of play is a 62 roll hand is going to be wildly profitable and satisfying. Guaranteed. The bad thing is we might not last to see it. If we'd have been playing with you we might have hit loss limit before the big roll came. But we are learning that if we're willing to accept more volatility, we do get a lot more chances to get on big rolls from the very start. It would be interesting to know from the other players on that 62 roll hand, did their earnings make them profitable or just make up for previous losses?

For me what this has started to boil down to is understanding what gives me the greatest satisfaction at the table versus what I find the most frustrating. This is ever evolving and can even change trip to trip or session to session. On a long weekend trip much of the goal is just survival since we want to play a long time. In that mode we might not earn a whole lot from that long roll. We have pre-determined that going bust early trumps everything else, so we have a smaller less aggressive play. On a quick drive-by hit we might be very aggressive. We're willing to lose $500. We only have 2 hours and we hope we can catch a nice roll in that window of time. The desire to hit a big score trumps the fear of losing our buy in.

So it sounds like your result is pretty well in sync with the way you are playing. You were reading the trend and the trend was choppy/cold. I say try not to kick yourself, just take it in and decide what your goals are for the next trip. More risk to have a chance at more reward? Or stick with a play that keeps you in the game longer even though it wins less on the big hands. Only you can decide. Just remember, there's a really good chance that the table on your NEXT trip won't be giving you the same hands as it did the LAST trip.

[dork]

I'm gonna describe my system in more detail since my post got as numerous responses as it did.

I've never been there for another shooter's long hand that I can recall (I'll define a "long hand" as 25+ rolls). Part of the "miss" is because I try to limit my play to 4 players including myself. I've rolled several long hands, but most of them came before that dealer gave me that advice. It was my ~$300 winnings on a $300 buy-in after a 30-something roll that prompted his comment. Like AtGame7, that hand put me in the win column for the day but just barely (by $60 as I recall). Now, to be fair to the numbers, I probably left $100 on the table in tips. But you get the point--30 rolls ain't a "MONSTER", but really gooood money should be made on 30+ rolls, not $400, especially on $54 Across.

Here's my 'system' as it's revised now. I'll start out with an ISR and depending on how I think I'm delivering the dice, reduce to either $26/27 Across or if I'm feeling sharp, $52/54 Across. Ya'll have most commonly called it a "One Number" system, so I'll stick with that as a descriptor...

I lay 6 chips flat in an empty rack--face up, they're like 'clocks' looking at me. They represent all 6 box numbers, from left to right, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10. Every time I roll a box number, I place a chip on top of the symbol-chip in that rack. A quick look will tell me which number is rolling most. The dice choose my One Number--the "signature" number--no matter how my home practice leads me to psychologically favor another number.

Arbitrarily, I designate the first roll of a box number after the CO point as the One Number (simply because that's the first paying box number bet), and parlay that bet's winning result. (say the point is the 6; $52 Across [on a $10-minimum table] and I roll a 4... give the dealer $1 or $2 (depending on the table), and the parlayed-4 bet is now $30. One chip is stacked on my 4-symbol chip. If I don't roll a 4 again, and fill out the symbol rack by rolling a 5, 8, 9, and 10, then the next number will become the One Number. For instance, if I roll the 10 (a second time having only rolled one 4), I'll full-parlay the 10, giving the dealer $1 or $2; I'll tell the dealer to make my 4 a $10 bet, and skim the 4's previous $20 payoff (and add it to the 10's bet) to make the 10 a $50 bet. I'm looking for a kill here on the 10, of course, and ALL the other box numbers go 'up $5' each time--not $10 (one full unit). If the 10 hits again, I have a decision to make--parlay, or regress. I make the decision based on hunch, gut, and history. If the clock rack shows the 5 has hit 4x, 'up $5' betting should have the 5 at $30; that's "enough" of a start-- a press-- for me to take profits on the parlayed-10 and reduce it to a $10 bet. The whole goal here is to be greedy, yet leave very little in the box when the 7 comes. When I regress a parlay, I'll regress everything, except One Number--in this case, now the 5--no matter what's happening, now I make all other numbers look like $10 (on a $10-minimum table), with the 5 at $30. (If I'm on a $5 table, and started out with $52 Across, I'm gonna regress the other numbers to $5 bets.)

So now I've got $72 in the boxes (10,30, 12, 10, 10), with a PL and 5x Odds (or ~$25-30 Odds maximum to start). Just for theory, let's say now I'm ahead for my entire session. I've got $130 from the regressed-10, plus the profits I've skimmed from winning bets while pressing 'up $5' for the other numbers--a 5 that rolls 4x and is pressed 'up $5' each time equals a skim of $78 ($9+16+23+30), and 'up $5 on each other numbers (8 and 9) is $9 + $9 for the remaining two numbers. So for this hand, I've racked a regression of $130 + $96 = $226 after the CO point roll. I'll lose $72 (box numbers) and $30 (PL & Odds) on a 7 now. Net profit will be $124 (plus whatever I made on the ISR). At this point, I won't take any profits on a 3x parlay, I'll go to 4x before I consider it. I will reduce all other numbers to 'one unit' whenever points are made, though--looking for a 4x parlay "induces" lots of repeating stray box numbers, and again, the goal is to be greedy but leave the minimum for the casino when the Red shows up. If we're on a roll, there's a lot at risk on the PL anyway...

When my net profit approaches 100%--that is to say, when I think I'm ahead the amount of my buy-in, I'll alter some of my skimming. The One Number plan and box number play stays the same, but as I skim all the other numbers, I'll stack those skims on top of my Odds bet. I like Grafstein's idea that a hand that bangs out points should pay on the PL--that the Odds bet should increase. I especially like the idea of getting paid for real odds, so I really favor increasing my Odds even if I have to add money to the PL bet to qualify my Odds if my desired Odds bet goes beyond the table's maximum Odds limit.

As an example, after the regression detailed above, if we get a new point--(especially if the new point is 4, 5, 9, or 10), I leave the One Number, regress everything else to one unit bets, and increase my PL Odds to 7x or 8x. Let's say the point bullfrogs (repeats and gets paid). This next time, my PL Odds will be 10x. Bullfrog again, and I'll increase the PL bet by $2-$5 (depending on the 'frenzy'), and keep the Odds at 10x. Chicken Little that I am, I've had the PL and Odds at $18 and $180; that's a LOT for me.

More often than not, I leave the 6/8 Odds bet as 5x; I don't see 6-for-5 as 'big profit', so I'll just keep that the same unless the clock rack says I'm pounding the 6/8--in that case, I won't be gingerly about increasing my Odds like I am with the points of 4, 5, 9, 10, but I will only double my Odds on every other winning 6/8 point. (making the Odds payoffs finance the doubled-Odds bet)

Remember Rule #1, (taught to me by a dealer): If you don't take it down and walk out with it, it's just free play.

edited to add: What happens if the One Number becomes a new CO point? I reduce to $52/54 Across, and stack that (old One Number's) bet on top of my intended Odds. Let's say fortune is on my side... I've just made a third point, the 9-- it's just paid my $5 PL and $50 Odds and I've won $80 for it. The new come out point is my old One Number, the 5, and it has $30 in the place betting slot. I would have bet $7 on the PL intending to bet $70 Odds, but since the old One Number must be taken down, I'll cough up $2 more for the PL... I need to make the PL $9 so I can bet $90 Odds (at a 10x Odds table). What would have been $70 Odds goes up $20--the $30- One Number "5" comes down--$10 for a place-9, and a "$20 skim". I'd 'keep' the "disqualified-5" parlay quest "in play" by adding the skim to the Odds.

[mycoalsmith]

Could have . . . . . should have . . . . . would have. It's easy to say in hind sight - AFTER the outcome.

I am a conservative player - and I usually like to get my initial bets paid for - plus make a small profit before I start pressing. Sometimes it works - sometimes I don't even get all my bets reimbursed before the 7. "Could have . . . . should have . . . . . would have pressed the initial win and then gotten a "same bet" and I would have made my money back."

Then even when things are working - you've gotten your initial bets reimbursed and pressed the winning rolls - then you come to the decision "Should I continue pressing? How long is this train going to stay on the track?"
"Should I regress - lock up a profit and ride the train until it derails?"
or "Should I take all my bets down? - This train has gone about as far as I think it can. Lock in my profit now."

I've seen "Could have . . . . . should have . . . . .would have . . . . " for all the scenarios.

Start pressing and that wicked 7 shows - and you watch all those chips being swept AWAY from you. "Could have . . . . should have . . . . would have regressed or taken it down."

Don't press and just do "same bet" thinking the train is going to derail. The shooter keeps rolling the same numbers again and again. Those "same bets" do add up . . . . but if I "Could have . . . . . should have . . . . . would have PRESSED instead of "same bet", I would have
made a lot more."

You do press and alternate "Press" with "Same bet." The shooter rolls for a while, and you make money, but when that 7 does show, and you see your initial bet pressed up 3 or 4 times - and all those chips being swept AWAY from you - "I could have . . . . . should have . . . . . would have made a lot more money if I would have regressed, or "All bets off" after the dice flew off the table."

Hind sight ALWAYS tells you what you "Could have . . . . . should have . . . . . would have . . . ." done.

"Same bet" . . . . . "Press" . . . . . "Regress to minimum bet" . . . . . . . "Turn all bets off." . . . . . . "Take down everything."

If you made a profit - just be happy you MADE a profit. Otherwise you'll "Could have . . . . . should have . . . . . would have" your life away!!!!!!!

[slowdriver]

A dealer taught me something that I keep suggesting here... you have to give yourself a chance to win "BIG" money, even if you're a little bettor, or as in my case, a Chicken Little Extraordinaire (par excellence)...

His advice was, I gotta give myself a chance to let some number, any number, pay big. His advice was, on a minimum bet of $26/27 Across on a $5 table, why not risk five dollars? --let it ride 5 times on a number, any number. Chose a number... a lucky number, the next number rolled, your youngest child's age, whatever--you've got 5 Place Bet choices. Parlay one number's winnings 5 times before you take it down. What's the risk, $5?

And so, from that advice I revised an ISR betting scheme that fits both my sense of caution, and satisfies my penchant for greedy play. I've yet to score on a 5x parlay, but I've taken the 4x parlayed payoff countless times on $5 and $10 initial place bets. Each time I took down a 4th parlay, some other number was up-and-coming, and I'd designate it the new number to parlay; sometimes I've consolidated all my place bets into one STEROID place bet and leave 4 other minimum bets and continue a different parlay until I'd approximate a 4x parlay amount).

Look at it this way... a lost (table minimum) $5 bet is a lost $5. Choose the '9'... A 4x $5 parlayed-9 is $134 profit ($5 + a parlay of $5 = $10, parlayed again is $24, parlayed again plus a dollar from you is $60. THAT parlayed $60 plus its' winnings of $84 is $144; take down the 9 except for $5 and you've made $139 on the 9 alone.

Let's specifically examine what you stand to lose if you choose a number and parlay it 4x... you stand to lose whatever you initially bet on that number--all the other numbers, you've given yourself a chance to recoup those bets if you're playing a take and press system--the parlay number, though, that's a loss every time a hand is thrown unless you get to the 4th parlay. It's not that much to risk, even over the long term. If you don't like it, play for 3 parlays; take only the profit from the 3rd repeater--a $5 parlayed '9' will pay $35--that'll pay off your initial place bets. Then parlay the $24 bet for a 4th time and add a dollar--now you're at $60 looking for an $84 payoff and then you've got a decision to make.

You can see the potential if you extrapolate this system across the box numbers as you take down 3x and then 4x parlays as other numbers 'rejuvenate'. For $5, or $10 risk, you can do a lot better than the 'up one unit' betting scheme would allow.

Nice post Dork, I have missed out on along hand more than a couple of time pre and post Heavy's seminar last year usually because i was way down and just happy to get even but every session is a learning experience and you have to be able and willing to profit from being at the right place at the right time.