MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing

[Mad Professor]

This is the continuation-thread of my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing betting-trial.


This is the first of what I expect will be many ongoing posts where we run the MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing against the group-shoot in-casino roll-stats of various dice-weekend get-togethers.

My original Testing, Testing...Formulized D-I Betting-Strategies thread will familiarize you with this unique USE-ONLY-on-SKILLED-SHOOTERS approach, where, so far we’ve run in excess of 40,000 in-casino rolls from variously-skilled DICE-INFLUENCERS against the MP-$204 to see how it would fare on a “one-size-NEARLY-fit-all” basis.

So far we are ahead by about +$45,000.

This thread is dedicated to carrying on this bet-testing project.

Let’s jump right into things.

This first set of roll-stats and their subsequent results against my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing were garnered from Heavy’s recent Veteran's Day Craps Reveille.


Session #1

Shooter 1: 5 - 9 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 2: 10 - 8 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 3: 2 - 6 - 9 - 12 - 9 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 4: 4 - 2 - 5 - 9 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 5: 5 - 9 - 5 - 8 - 4H - 7out…+$54

Shooter 6: 9 - 7out…-$204

Shooter 7: 5 - 11 - 8 - 8 - 9 - 7out…+$63

Shooter 8: 4 - 8 - 8 - 5 - 5 - 10 - 7out…+$74

Shooter 9: 9 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 10: 5 - 9 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 11 - 4 - 6 - 9 - 5 - 12 - 6 - 9 - 10 - 9 - 3 - 11 - 7out…+$91

Shooter 12 - 4 - 11 - 10H - 7out…-$155

Shooter 13 - 4 - 10 - 5 - 9 - 12 - 6 - 6 - 10 - 5 - 5 - 7out…+$100

Shooter 14 - 9 - 5 - 7out…-$155


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$544

Gross-loss…………………………….................................…...…..-$979

Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……..........-$435


Running-total for seminar-attendees ongoing hands using the MP-$204...-$435


So this session produced a loss.

Am I concerned or bothered by it?

No, not in the least.

The MP-$204 doesn't produce a net-profit from every session, nor does it purport to. Instead, it looks to gain an overall big-picture profit when many hands in many sessions from many skilled-shooters are sampled.

Over the several years that we've been running this betting-trial against skilled-shooters in-casino roll-stats; the deepest drawdown it has encountered is in the -$2000 range. Now at first blush that seems like a lot of money, and it truly is; but the mature advantage-play dice-influencer has to adopt a big-picture perspective if he is looking for big-picture bankroll-doubling and re-doubling profits.

As I mentioned above, the MP-$204 is AHEAD by around +$45,000 at this point (where each and every in-casino group-shoot roll has been recorded and tested against); so a drawdown here and a drawdown there, while making an overall net-profit, thus far, of more than $45,000 seems quite reasonable in my books.

So onward we go. Session number-two from Heavy’s recent Veteran's Day Craps Reveille is up next.

In the meantime, if you have any comments or questions; fire away.



EDITED to correct an error on Shooter #5, and to the subsequent payout.


MP

[Mad Professor]

Hi Obie,

I am only going off of what Heavy provided in his own commentary. I will go back and make that correction. Thanks.

I have no problem if you want to run 'The Strategy' against these roll-stats in your own separate thread, especially IF you explain the entire betting-process.

That is, each and every bet-component of the MP-$204 is known, fully explained and totally codified. If you are willing to do the same thing in your own dedicated bet-trial thread, I am sure that H would have no problem with it whatsoever. In fact, I am sure readers would thoroughly enjoy it.

However, if you were simply to say something like...Hand #1 won $20...Hand #2 won $14,665...Hand #3 won $17, and so on WITHOUT ANY EXPLANATION of the why's and wherefor's of what The Strategy actually entails; then I think it would be of little net-value to readers.


MP

[London Shooter]

Fathead should also use these rolls to see how his new pro approach would be faring.

[mssthis1]

Could you re-post the "MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing" parameters for us newbies or point me in the direction where I can find it?

[Mad Professor]

Could you re-post the "MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing" parameters for us newbies or point me in the direction where I can find it?

Hi mssthis1,

Sure, no prob.

The Mad Professor’s $204-Across equal-payout Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing is designed for betting on other skilled-DI's whose bet-advantage numbers are not known in advance.

So for example, in group-shoot get-togethers, or where you encounter a new-to-you skilled-shooter whose toss you instantly recognize as 'skilled', but whose best-advantage numbers have yet to reveal themselves.

Initial Bet:

~Wager $25 each on the Buy-4 and Buy-10......$35 each on the Place-5 and Place-9......$42 each on the Place-6 and Place-8.

That equals $204-Across.

~Any paying-hit on any one of those six box-numbers kicks off the same $49 payout.

~My approach calls for collecting two (2) paying hits at that bet-level, and then regressing everything down to $44-Inside.

~At the point where you have collected two payouts of $49 each (a total of $98 gross).

Regression-point

~After collecting two $49 paying-hits at the $204-Across pre-regression; we regress everything down to $44-Inside. That immediately gives us a net in-rack profit of +$54. So no matter what else transpires on this hand; we will end up at least $54 ahead.

~When our post-regression $44-Inside wager is in place, we immediately employ Passive/Aggressive pressing as follows:

~For the 6 or 8 the press-schedule looks like this:

$12......$18......$30.....$42.....$60.....$90.....$120....
$150....$180.....$240.....$300....$420.....$600.....$900....$1200, etc.


~For the 5 or 9 the press-schedule looks like this:

$10....$15.....$25.....$35.....$50.....$75.....$100....$125.....
$150....$200....$250.....$350.....$500.....$750....$1000, etc.


It’s also important to point out once again that this is NOT for when I am shooting (nor for when you know what the specific shooter's highest-advantage numbers are); but rather it’s an attempt to formulate a “one-size-NEARLY-fits-all” D-I betting-approach for when you walk up to a tableful of skilled-shooters, but you don’t know ahead of time what each of those shooter’s specific best-advantage numbers are.



MP

[acpa]

Obei1,

There were points made by several shooters. See shooter 11 also.

Only effect they have is that the bets don't work (collect or lose) on the new point being established.

Noah

[acpa]

Obei1,

Your right, I misread 11 thinking point was six.

My read is then that Shooter 5 did make one point and the win amount would be 54. Will look forward to what MP says.

Noah

[mssthis1]

If you were working on the come out that sample would have been a positive result. No sevens and only one number that wasn't a box number on the come out.

[Jazzycat]

Hi MP,
I'm curious, are you able to calculate the average number of point cycle tosses before a seven-out from your project data? If you're able to share that info I'd be interested in learning what the average is. Thanks!

Jazzy

[Mad Professor]

Hi guys,

I went back in and corrected the payout on Shooter #5, and to the subsequent totals. Thanks for the heads-up on that, Noah.

Hi MP,
I'm curious, are you able to calculate the average number of point cycle tosses before a seven-out from your project data? If you're able to share that info I'd be interested in learning what the average is. Thanks!

Jazzy

Hi Jazzy,

As you know, the randomly-expected SRR-rate for random point-cycle outcomes is SRR-6. The roll-stats for this project's in-casino roll-stats by skill-DI's in a group-shoot situation are generally in the SRR-6.5 to SRR-6.8 range.

Needless to say, some individual sessions come in significantly higher, and of course some come in below that average; but overall, they consistently register around SRR-6.7...which is an SRR-rate that the MP $204-Across Regression continues to show, is most-definitely profitably-exploitable.

If you are looking for more stats about all that, our friend, Al_Falcons, did a whole bunch of additional toss-stats analytics on the MP-$204 here in the Testing, Testing...Formulized D-I Betting-Strategies thread.



MP

[Jazzycat]

Hi MP,
Thank you for the SSR info and link to AL Falcons analysis.
Jazzy

[Mad Professor]

No prob, Jazzy.

Just as an FYI: while the crew and I were fully engrossed with the gridiron-action yesterday, Ms. MP kindly went in and cleaned-up the formating in my ongoing Testing, Testing...Formulized D-I Betting-Strategies thread.

Now everything properly fits onto the screen; making all of the graphs, charts, and session-analysis MUCH easier to read.


MP

[Jazzycat]

Please pass along my thanks to Ms. MP.

[Mad Professor]

Okay, let’s head over to LV’s Downtown Grand for the second session from Heavy’s recent Veteran's Day Craps Reveille where we are running my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing against those group-shoot roll-stats.

Live Session #2

Shooter - 7 - 2 - 8 - 4 - 12 - 9 - 4 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 12 - 11 - 5 - 5 - 9 - 7out…+$123

Shooter 2: 7 - 5 - 10 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 3: 6 - 8 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 4: 3 - 6 - 11 - 9 - 9 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 5: 9 - 7out…-$204

Shooter 6: 6 - 8 - 9 - 10 - 9 – 7…+$63

Shooter 7: 2 - 6 – 6p - 9 – 9p - 5 – 5p - 3 - 6 - 7out …+$63

Shooter - 7 - 4 – 4p - 6 - 3 - 10 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 11 - 5 - 10 - 11 - 9 - 11 - 7out…+$142

Shooter - Heavy: 9 - 11 - 8 - 12 - 4 - 3 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 3 - 8 - 10 - 8 - 3 - 8 - 8 - 9p - 5 - 9 - 7out…+$202

Shooter - Dice Coach: 3 - 8 - 5 - 8 - 4 - 12 - 7out…+$54

Shooter - Irishsetter: 2 - 8 - 3 - 11 - 7 …-$204

Shooter - Howard Rock n Roller: 7 - 8 - 8p - 10 - 6 - 5 - 9 - 5 - 10p - 7 - 2 - 7 - 4 - 5 - 7out…+$108

Heavy’s notes:

“This trip around the table we had 12 shooters. There were 111 numbers rolled. The average hand this trip around the table increased to 9.25.

Two session results - 26 shooters - 186 numbers rolled - Average hand 7.15 rolls.”


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$809

Gross-loss…………………………….................................…...…..-$718

Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……..........+$91


Running-total for seminar-attendees ongoing hands using the MP-$204...-$344



MP

[Jazzycat]

I like that you included Heavy's notes. It will be interesting to benchmark my in-casino tosses/hand with the class averages.

[Mad Professor]

Here is the third set of in-casino roll-stats from Heavy’s recent seminar, and their subsequent results when run against my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing approach:

Shooter 1: 6 - 6p - 9 - 6 - 9p - 7 - 6 - 4 - 7out…+$63

Shooter 2: 9 - 8 - 8 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 3: 5 - 8 - 7out…-$155

Shooter 4: 3 - 5 - 5p - 3 - 11 - 10 - 10p - 4 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 5: 2 - 10 - 7out…-$204

Shooter - Heavy: 7 - 8 - 3 - 10 - 7out …-$155

Shooter - Dice Coach: 7 - 11 - 12 - 3 - 4 - 4p - 7 - 7 - 8 - 10 - 6 - 9 - 6 - 7out …+$80

Shooter - Irishsetter: 3 - 6 - 4 - 7out…-$155

Shooter - Howard Rock 'n Roller: 6 - 4 - 10 - 6p - 8 - 4 - 4 - 9 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 4 - 8p - 4 - 6 - 9 - 5 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 4P 11 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 11 - 4 - 4 - 7out …+$207

Shooter 10: 6 - 4 - 8 - 4 - 4 - 7out…+$54

Shooter 11: 4 - 9 - 4p - 8 - 7out…+$54


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$566

Gross-loss…………………………….................................…...…..-$669

Net-loss for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……..........-$103


Running-total for seminar-attendees ongoing hands using the MP-$204...-$447



MP

[bryfromtheharbor]

That is better than I did.

[Mad Professor]

With all of the interest in Dicenator’s recent craps-cruises; several fellow board-members have requested that I run his in-casino roll-stats against my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression to see how they fare…and of course I am more than pleased to do so.

Dicenator’s CARNIVAL DREAM - AUGUST 2014 - TRIP REPORT
(the original thread can be found here: http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... RIP-REPORT )

Day #1

HAND #1 - 5 10 8 4 2 5P 9 9P 10 4 6 7out…+$80

HAND #2 - 4H 11 9 8 6 3 8 7out…+$70


Day #2

HAND #3 - 9 5 3 6 6 11 7 out…+$62

HAND #4 - 9 5 12 3 8 8 4 4 2 9P 5 5P 3 8 3 12 10 7out…+$80

HAND #5 - 9 3 3 12 8 11 6 8 4H 3 7out…+$62

HAND #6 - 7 7 12 4 6 11 8 8 8 6H 5 4P 10 8H 7out…+$111

HAND #7 - 12 5 2 5P 4 10 7out…+$54

HAND #8 - 7 9 9P 11 5 8 4 6 5P 9 5 10H 9P 11 6 7out …+$93


Day #3

HAND #9 - 8 8P 6 4 2 5 2 8 7out…+$71

HAND #10 - 8 6 9 8P 7 6 6HP 10 3 8 5 4 8 6 3 5 8 9 10P 3 9 8 4 4 7out…+$211


Day #4

HAND #11 - 7 5 8H 9 4H 8 8 12 9 10H 10H 5P 5 7out…+$89

HAND #12 - 7 6 8H 5 4 9 4H 6P 8 9 10 2 9 10 9 8P 7 2 11 5 2 10H 4 9 9 3 3 9 9 10 7out…+$548

HAND #13 - 7 2 7 5 4H 8 5P 8 7out…+$63


Day #5

HAND #14 - 6H 9 6P 12 8 6 7out …+$62


Day #6

HAND #15 - 9 10H 10 9P 8H 8P 7 5 2 9 8 11 2 8 4H 6 11 12 7out…+$122

HAND #16 - 8 5 8P 7 11 10H 3 7out…+$54

HAND #17 - 9 9P 8 5 5 3 7out…+$63

HAND #18 - 5 8H 3 9 12 5P 8 11 6 5 5 6 7out…+$116


Day #7

HAND #19 - 11 8 5 6H 10H 11 5 8HP 5 5P 9 5 6 5 11 11 9P 8 8P 11 8 9 5 6 7out…+$232

HAND #20 - 9 6H 3 2 9P 9 5 11 8 12 8 4H 8 10 12 10 5 9P 5 11 4H 6 7out …+$131


Dicenator's comments:

“In 20 hands I made 29 points for an average of 1.45 points per hand. In addition I had 20 come out wins for a ratio of 1.1 per hand.

My average roll length with my Underhand throw was 14.2 throws per hand. I used a Parr throw for one hand during the week and one hand was Underhand with my left hand.

With the very limited playing that I had mostly due to pain in my foot and leg when standing at the craps table I felt that I never really got warmed up or in the zone so I'm pretty happy with my results.

My win for the week was pretty minimal being $260 but considering that particularly for the first 3 or 4 days my pain was my primary focus and it prevented me from really even thinking about betting properly. Using hindsight I should have had my wife handle the betting and just concentrate on my throwing. After leaving the ship we rented a car and spent 2 days in Biloxi.”


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$2374

Gross-loss…………………………….................................…...…..-$000

Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……..........+$2374


Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$1927



MP

[Mad Professor]

This next set of in-casino roll-stats is from Dicenator’s most-recent craps-cruise; wherein we run my MP $204-Across equal-pay, two-hit Regression against them to see how it fares.

Dicenator’s NORWEGIAN GETAWAY - NOV 2014 - TRIP REPORT
(the original thread can be found here: http://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/topic ... RIP-REPORT )

11/8

8 throws
6, 5, 8, 8,12, 5, 5, 7 out…+$82

6 throws 1 point
5, 5 pt,11, 2, 8h, 7 out…-$155

12 throws 3 points
6, 4h, 4, 5, 6 pt, 5, 5 pt, 6, 6 pt, 5, 9, 7 out…+$100


11/9

8 throws
2, 5, 9, 10, 11, 10, 9, 7 out…+$63

14 throws 2 points
8, 8 pt, 12, 9, 6, 4h, 6h, 9 pt, 7, 7, 7, 8, 9, 7 out…+$82

13 throws 1 point
9, 9 pt, 4, 9, 10h, 9, 6, 9, 11, 6, 8, 2, 7 out…+$99

5 throws 1 point
9, 9 pt, 8, 4h, 7 out…+$54

6 throws 2 points
10, 10 pt, 8, 8 pt, 5, 7 out…+$54

7 throws 1 point
9, 5, 9 pt, 6, 11, 9, 7 out…+$63

9 throws 1 point
2, 3, 7, 8, 6, 8 pt, 8, 6, 7 out…+$62


11/10

8 throws 1 point
11, 6, 6 pt, 3, 6, 11, 8, 7 out…+$54


11/11

14 throws 3 points
8, 8 pt, 9, 8, 9 pt, 11, 6, 4h, 6 pt, 3, 7, 7, 9, 7 out…+$71

10 throws 2 points
4h, 9, 6, 4 pt, 4, 6, 10h, 4 pt, 6, 7 out…+$62

7 throws 1 point
6, 8, 4h, 6 pt, 7, 6, 7 out…+$62


11/12 NO PLAY

11/13

12 throws 1 point
4, 5, 6, 3, 5, 11, 8h, 4 pt, 6, 10h, 5, 7 out…+$82

21 throws 3 points
7, 8, 9, 8 pt, 6h, 6 pt, 4, 9, 9, 8, 9, 12, 6, 11, 3, 4h pt, 10h, 5, 4, 8, 7 out …+$142

23 throws 2 points
8h, 4h, 2, 9, 5, 5, 4, 9, 5, 8 pt, 9, 6h, 5, 9 pt, 9, 6, 4, 6, 5, 5, 6h, 12, 7 out…+$357


11/14

6 throws
5, 9, 6, 6h, 9, 7 out…+$71

8 throws 2 points
6, 6 pt, 11, 6, 9, 6 pt, 10h, 7 out…+$62


Dicenator’s comments:

“For the week my throwing was OK considering the lack of playing time. My point production was very good. I made 27 points in 19 hands for a ratio of 1.42 points per hand. There was only 1 day where I played 7 hands which leaves 12 hands over the other 6 days.”


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......…….........................…....…+$1622

Gross-loss…………………………….................................…...…..-$155

Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……..........+$1467


Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$3394



MP

[tonybugs]

Wow Day 4, hand 12 on cruise was a beauty! 8 nines. Running the MP204 when a "true" DI is tossing is like printing money!

I see a new partnership---- Dicenator/Mad Professor. One guy shoots, one guy bets, both guys clean up! Casino taking a bath- PRICELESS!!!

Tonybugs