File this under "just a way to play"... ... y'ever read the blurb under the Forum Header, "Betting Strategies for Casino Craps"? It says:
This is prolly gonna be a long read. And it's for novices mostly. Guys like me, who've only been around craps barely a coupla years, mostly self-taught by lots of table experimentation, "taught" by reading the Axis Powers posts, and maybe having rewatched Heavy's DVD 4-6x. Ya might even have attended a class somewhere--Heavy's or Parr, or whomever.Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.
Are you at the point where you think your toss is maybe havin' some influence, but your bankroll can't prove it? (then again, maybe your SSR is ‘negative’ and you’re betting the wrong side) You're comfortable with your understanding of the game, and you're comfortable with your betting scheme. It suits your financial commitment, your temperament for caution or audacity, and it's consistent with your notion of avarice. Your dice delivery looks practiced, but as I said, your winnings don't prove it. Up and down, up and down... your deep-down bet-the-house gut feel is, the game is still "win some, lose some".
Live play is the crucible... it's the place where if you ain't got understanding or control, here’s where it shows most and best. Take me as a prime example-- I started out visiting the casinos in May 2011 as a social interaction with my wife's cousin and her husband. They introduced us to the casinos, showed us how to get there, apply for comp cards, etc. We'd only go when they went. The tables punished me for every little fault and stupid play while my ignorance held me in steady jeopardy. I went because my wife enjoyed the slot play; I enjoyed their company. Frankly, I thought it was the most borinnnng way to meet and socialize. The three of them played slots... I was bored to tears. I'd heard the crap game offered the least house-biased game for the player, so I looked up the free internet craps games and chose one to play. I got pretty damn good at configuring bets with the mouse, learning the proper odds, the different bets, how the layout was set up and intended to work. I was fascinated enough (and desperate to leave the slots) to surf for craps forums. I dunno where I ended up first in those days, but it wasn't here--some scam artist's site, I remember. But wherever site I landed first, mention was made of the principal of “dice-influencing”, and I thought phooey... nothin' on YouTube has convinced me, self-touted "experts" and all; it turns out that I’m not so far off on that assessment, but culling through the BS marketing is another indirect consequence of the table risks and my lack of understanding…
One guy I'll keep anonymous baits the viewer with his "perfect" toss, but you never see the dice stop rolling. The hook is, he wants you to pay for his downloads and travel to his classes. But the toss looks practiced, even to my neophyte visual evaluation--but short of payin' for a "scam", I decide to buy a Grafstein book. Amazon readers rated the hell out of it as I recall, and so did readers on some forgotten site. I bite the hook. After a lot of book passage-highlighting, I settle on a betting scheme that's easy to understand, makes some sense, seems financially ‘responsible’, and works fairly well sometimes on the internet games. And there’s no mention at all of dice-throwing as a discipline in ‘Dice Doctor’ (Grafstein’s book); the implication is that the dice will do what they do; his “well-thought-out” betting schemes could offer enough of an edge. As he says, “let the dice determine where/what to bet.” Okay, I’ve read the book a coupla three times; let's take this show on the road...
In the beginning, I'm a once-a-month visitor to the notorious tables at Island View Gulfport; it's my wife's and the relatives' favorite casino, for its' heavy comps. For another eight months, I'll play here, never understanding that certain tables are more desirable for their lack of 'bounce'. Not that that would have made any difference whatsoever; I wasn’t practicing a dice throw. I never even attempted to set the dice. Armed with Grafstein's betting systems, I plow ahead with complete faith in a one-time-for-each-shooter-around-the-table buy-in. My rationale is that my wallet should survive his buy-in suggestion if I reduce the rest of his advised bets by half. I start out small; $2-300 buy-in, $100-150 loss limit. $5PL and 2x Odds. Screw his 1x Odds. Risk only $30 per player, or even less. That's all I play initially. But sooo many other numbers are hitting. I'm sitting (im)patiently in those sessions like a wallflower, watching the great hands pass me by. Grafstein says that a $12 6 & 8 is a conservative bet suitable for the timid... I’ll go half that. "$6 6&8"... The short version--I get impatient, and over the course of those 8 months, my bets ‘balloon’ to $22 inside with the PL bets, to finally $26/27 Across and $5PL w/$10 Odds; it’s a ½-sized variation of the Grafstein-suggested $44 Inside $5PL/Odds play.
Two months after casino introduction, we're playing twice a month; I'm driving my wife to her slot amusements. I've discovered this website, but I don't devote much time reading here. These guys seem to talk so far over my head I can't get a handle on their expertise, much less what they’re discussing, so I stick to books. I'm still figuring out how the props and hop bets work (I don’t even know what they’re called because I can't match the book descriptions of odds with the table layout.) I'm on a steady regimen of losing $150 per visit. A Grafstein buy-in (read that, ‘loss limit’) of 10x player hands?? Who's got that kind of regular money... $300 is pushin' hard already. I never stopped to think… 10x around the table—it’s predicated on 9x losses; it means that theoretically when I’ve lost $270, the magic 10th RR will do me right—s/he’s supposedly a statistical savior gonna reap a $300 hand and bail me out enough times so that a $300 buy-in makes sense. Funny how I believed that then. I read 'nother book... In the hole about $1000 "for the year" I resolve to double the betting amounts and buy-in. For me, that takes a lot of psyche... after all, I'm only here at the casino as a driver. However, the mathematics of the game fascinate me and draws me in, like a magnet. That one time when I rolled like hell, I doubled my money. $350 winnings for $300 buy-in. Like the dealer said, I was "basking in the moment". I remember that session for the next coupla months; if I only had double the stakes all around...
I'm reading more and more on this website exclusively; abandoning the sage wisdom of the other, because this forum allows interchange amongst the site owner, and the 'public', at random. No canned responses. This site ain't just reading all the published answers of one author while down the left column are all his pandering ads. Funny, there, there’s no forum. Join this, buy that... No, my "allegiance" is swaying... Now I'm tempted to build a layout and practice throwing. I stumble on feedback here that says Island View tables have a bounce. Oh, yeah? Who doesn't? (In those early days, I couldn't even tell the difference.) But then I go to IP; I can't even hit the back wall consistently. It dawns on me that a throw that'd bounce me out of the I-View table doesn't roll to the wall at IP. I realize I gotta build my practice layout to match; if guys are fussy enough to wanna tame a table’s bounce (and ‘table bounciness’ is a subject to warrant discussion), maybe there’s something to “controlling” dice.
It's two years later. I practice my throw about 4 days a week now on average. My fingertips are sensitive to what I should feel for; I can evaluate the dice in the air--that is, I know a real stinker when I see one. My 2yr-YTD record? I'm down almost $12,000 spread out amongst 5 Biloxi/Gulfport casinos. I'm weaning myself off of The Isle (Nugget now), Boomtown, and Island View. They've got easily the most unfriendly, uncooperative, surly or arrogant dealers in town, and their tables are too bouncy (though that's a looong evaluation process, since I'm such a novice). I play at the Palace and the Grand. IP is too smokey for me, and 'way too heavily attended with riffraff clientele. (I can’t imagine Detroit casinos.) The Palace is a non-smoker, that's REALLY nice. And mostly nobody’s there; the dealers are the most enjoyable I've met in 3 years now... but I can't win there. Looking back (from today), their tables' bounce is just beyond my ability to stay consistent.
My betting hasn't changed in these first 2-1/2 years. I've yet to glom onto MP's threads; by rote, I stick to certain topics and forums within this Axis Power website, so I'm still on an "up-one-unit" scheme betting $54 Across $5PL w/2x Odds wherever I play. Frustration is high. I'm tired of being the escort/bodyguard. It's costing a ton of money; despite my throw at home looking pretty good; BoneTracker's a blessing--I found it about a year ago; it says my SSR consistenly hovers in the high 7's, maybe the looow 8's. But my YTD numbers don't prove there's ANY improvement.
And annoyance for having to visit the tables is getting strong. I wanna bet at a $3 game; the HA is a killer, but I don't wanna cost us anymore than I have to, just to be sure my wife gets home safe. That's all I'm doin' here at the casinos after all--I'm just the driver. $3 PL, whatever Odds, $15 Across, $26/27 Across, $54 Across, nothin' works. Tiptoeing into heavy losses ($200 per visit now, minimally) with the occasional hot day at the table. For this last 18 months, we're up to weekly visits year-round; a year's losses are $7,000 (just my losses). "That ain't bad... what's that--$140 per week? That's still within my original loss limit." That makes statistical sense to me... but the depression has kicked in long ago; I'm afraid to play now. Been that way for a while; still, I enjoy the camaraderie of the dealers--at the Palace, so I play there, mostly. The casino comps for shipt, though, so my wife stays at the slots at IP for convenience (for unfamiliar readers, IP and Palace are about 2-3 miles apart; Island View is 25 minutes away from the non-smoker Palace).
Heavy's Biloxi Feb 2012 is looong passed, but I learned a lot about my throw. Slow down. Breathe. Hey, that looks pretty good!! How come I'm not makin' monetary progress? The "voices in my head" resonate... CAREFUL. You're down almost $5G's up to this point. A lot of the year's left. Tiptoe, tiptoe...
Nov 2012… I’ve taken to starting play at IP when I drop off my wife; it’s just a lot more convenient than driving around from casino to casino when the Palace is full. The table’s seem sooo dead at IP; it’s way easier to control the end of the roll there. But my visits are very sporadic; I still hate IP for the riffraff, the smoke and the crowded 8-slots-full tables.
One day, I'm lookin' for something on the internet, I don't remember what. I click an old bookmark by mistake, and I land at thediceinstitute.com . I vaguely remember that site... I can't get in anymore, but I remembered I'd cut and pasted a lesson from there into a Word doc. Lemme look it up... where is it? do I wanna save this bookmark or kill it...
And I stumble on "Regression avoids Depression Part 2" in my PC files. Do I remember "Mad Professor"? from Heavy's forum? or was that Maddog? M-something... Or maybe it was that old grey-haired dude in the picture who seemed to talk so much and say so little…except ‘pay me, pay me.’ Maybe I should break out of my rote and be more investigative and diligent in my reading... so I read the Word doc about MP's concept of regression...but it ain't for me. It’s for those guys rolling in it who can afford a $204 loss on a single CO roll. I'm no high roller. $204 Across? sheeeyiit. A 10-player-around-the-table buy-in at those stakes is like 7x more money than I WANT to play with. I don't hardly get passed the first paragraph... "204". I'm buyin' in now with 500 only because I need that much to last til it's time to go home. (S'pos’t to buy-in with double my loss limit, right??) Welllll, maybe I'll halve that $204 down to $98, that'll work mathematically. I'll combine my new regimen--that 5x PL Odds reduces HA-- with a $96/98 Across; a regression to $26/27 means I'll only be out $1 and all my bets will be paid. Hell, that's still a LOT of buy-in. Who's got a spare $1000 to buy-in once a week? Not me. But wait... that's what I’ve lost so far this year... 5x that. Lemme read up on that regression some more...
I sure wish I could find a way to hide from the casino when I win. JEEZus H. Ch... I was up $800, but nooo... she's got a $10 free play if we wait til 5 o'clock. I KNEW that fn $10 coupon would cost me... that was a looong ride home; like so many others--down $300 for the day. 4 hours at the table. An $1100-turn around. She's workin'; at least she can make up for it. But dammit, there's gotta be somethin' else to do to 'mark time'. But the losses pile up; I'll be ahead, 2, 3, 5, $600 and there's no place to hide; it's too damn hot to wait in the car... so each protracted session turns into a net loss. I wonder how that $98 Across would have done if I'da used it every time I shot. The Heatseeker isn't doing very well on the RR's-- well, that's not true; it's holding its' own. I think it's the Grafstein play that's killin' me on the RR's; I dunno—even when I’m the shooter, Grafstein’s $54 Across doesn’t seem to hold its’ own… Did it come across to the reader that I should have applied "believe half of what you see and none of what you hear (read)" to Grafstein's book?
I wish it'd occurred to me.I've had enough. Throw in the towel. I'm done. This year, 2014, I'm down almost $5G's and it’s not even June yet. Even last year was better. Ah, hell, one last try... cold turkey for a month; then, with all that practice and a full wallet, let's try without Grafstein, nor the RR’s, neither--NOT ONE. NObody but me. For that, I gotta stay overnight; IP’s the best site. I’ll play for myself... no waiting for anyone else--go HOME when I'm ahead, or when *I* wanna leave. I'll play in the morning only, by myself if possible. If there's 4 guys at the table, I’ll just go home. Where’s pride in character and self-control if I can't act on a pre-determined resolution? 4. That's the number.
What luck. 1. I join up. My turn to throw. Two hands and it's time to go home. Up $721 with a 4-3-4 ATS payoff, too. How 'bout that!? But I backslide.... that Thursday as the 'escort', I lose $200; I was up $263. And so it goes... until something sinks in hard. It’s not my bets; it’s not my throw. It’s my lack of resolve; indirectly, I’ve been letting the clock determine when I quit. I don’t quit when I’m ahead, I’ve been quitting when the “clock” says I’ve had enough.
That was an epiphany... and maybe the point of all this I've written. As a novice, I knew what I knew… hone my delivery; understand a betting scheme I like; breathe; calm; focus-- "It is what it is" is the popular saying. It's akin to 'you know what you know'. It's ALL you know. Ya know when someone’s too ignorant (or blind to a concept) to understand that they don’t know enough to form a question? That’s where “quitting time” hid for me—I never even understood I wasn’t in control. I thought I was; I was biding. Not well; but we’d agreed to a time—but that moment when it’s time to color up—that’s not set by agreement nor a clock… you get to choose that moment.
Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice.
Now I understand what that means. My 42-month path of paid “lessons” at the table says that I should find a betting scheme that will allow me, the novice, to survive my novice SSR. I don’t see that I’m an exception. Now, I can see-- a lot of shooters dunno what they should expect from their betting schemes. But I wargamed it at home. PROVED to myself that my throw and my SSR performance at home at least favors my winning chances with the scheme I’m considering. Schemes are out there, even if your SSR is 6.0. A FIVE.ZERO SSR has an advantage. It’s just that y’oughta be betting the Dark Side with that.
Come with LOTS of money if you’re gonna get on the PL--ready to finance your Regression scheme. Ain’t got it? Sit it out till you do. Once I learned and experienced that this "grind's" strength is that it offers severe leverage for a finite period (compared to a take and press strategy), and that “LOTS” of money really wasn’t ALL at risk--that realization made it a lot easier to model an acceptable personal scheme (for my SSR).
Find a solution to your psychological weaknesses if you have them; a log of your wins/losses will prove one way or the other how your system is faring. Like Dave Casper once said: "play your best for 60 minutes, look up at the board, and see who's won." Keep a detailed log; nothing is as convincing a stark truth as a log. All you need to see is the tally. Ahead or behind? your notes should detail why. Was it the dice or was it some situation/occurrence that freaked you out? If it wasn’t your play, it was mental, one way or another.
My log entries show a predominance of losing all-encompassing $54 Across bets—on myself, on RR's who seemed hot, aggressive betting on supposed DI's (in my early days), heavy losses during "waiting" periods, and binge losses on two occasions--one was related to a death in the family, and the other to sheer aggravation of mounting losses (the 'due number' theory).
Since mid-summer, my game has slowly changed. I think it’s rock solid now; my demons are in the light. After a metric shipt-ton of reading and wargaming, I found a betting scheme, a table, a schedule, and a psychological resolve that fits me. Character and resolve are part of the game. The easy part is mastering the throw. There’s nothing really mentally nor psychologically challenging about dice delivery. It’s ignoring the personal demons accompanying me to the table that causes losses. Ain’t nothing in my delivery a decent betting regimen can’t take advantage of. Winning money ain’t the problem; it’s how to structure the entire methodology that’s the challenge.
“If it ain’t fun, it’s time to run.” I think that’s a pretty accurate rendition of one of Heavy’s wisdoms. I had to hear it a different way. Losing at the crap table isn’t fun; but it can be entertaining--so that motto did nothin' for me. Any ex-smokers here? When answering uncomprehending virgin non-smokers, “what’s the attraction of a cigarette?” The answer’s almost the same as that from a crap game loser who’s been ground into dust over a long session: ‘It’s a pleasant pain; and gradual.’
Like the experience of any Seven that's killed your roll, short or long. "I knew it was coming; I just didn’t care, that’s why I played too long.”
And them’s my free-flow thoughts: how I got here. Coupla guys have PM’d me that my earlier recent posts have hit a nerve maybe novices might benefit from reading about.
Thank you for your patience.
But I gotta axe again... where's that betting strategy DVD?