"Dicer's Two Hit and Down Progression"

[$5Bill]

"Dicer's Two Hit and Down Progression"



I like this strategy because after you have finished the 2nd level, the most you can lose is -$14 if the 7 comes
after you have pressed it up on the 3rd level. On the 4th level the most you can lose is -$8 and on the 5th
level it goes does down to -$6. Here is a chart that shows you how to play it. I always bring it with me to the
casino so I don't get confused.




You Don't have to go to the 5th level if you don't want to. Many times I have been happy just to get to the 2nd or
3rd level and quit.


"Dicer's Two Hit and Down Progression"

1st Hand

$44 inside working on the come-out
1st hit give dealer $8 and go to $66 inside
2nd hit take everything down
win $35
wait for a Decision
Total win so far +$35

2nd Hand

$44 inside working on the come-out
1st hit give dealer $30 and go to $88 inside
2nd hit take everything down
win $42
wait for a Decision
Total win so far +$77

3rd Hand

$66 inside working on the come-out
1st hit give dealer $23 and go to $110 inside
2nd hit take everything down
win $56
wait for a Decision
Total win so far +$133

4th Hand

$110 inside working on the come-out
1st hit give dealer $31 and go to $176 inside
2nd hit take everything down
win $91
wait for a Decision
Total win so far +$224

5th Hand

$176 inside working on the come-out
1st hit give dealer $54 and go to $286 inside
2nd hit take everything down
win $147
wait for a Decision
Net Win +$371

[$5Bill]

July 21, 2011

Sometimes while I'm playing Dicer's Strategy at a $10 table the table game supervisor will come along and change it to a $15 table. The first time they did that, I got lost and didn't know what to do next. So I went home and made a chart using the exact same formula as the other chart for the $10 tables except this one is for a $15 table. It starts off at $66 inside. I printed out both copies and keep them in a little notebook in my top pocket for reference.




$5Bill

[Iceman95]

$5 Bill,
Do you always use this system? What was the highest step you have achieved? It sounds good. I think I'm going to try it next time I go to the casino.

[$5Bill]

Hi Iceman

I got this from Heavy at Crapsfest 2008 in Las Vegas at his seminar. I have gotten through all 5 levels several times but you can stop anywhere along the way if you want too.

$5Bill

[$5Bill]

I thought That I would bring this strategy back to the front so it won't be so hard for me to find it. I'm thinking about trying it again. It worked out great on some practice rolls.

$5Bill

[London Shooter]

Haven't seen this before so thanks for brining up Bill as looks a good strategy to be aware of

[heavy]

Dicer was one of the good guys. He attended the very first seminar we did in Tunica way back in 2001. Heck of a good shooter. Quite the poker player. Last I heard he gave up gambling entirely (personal reasons unrelated to the game). He is one of the few guys I know who was able to support himself with his play. Admittedly most of his income was from poker, but he had a knack for walking up to the table, observing play for awhile, then tossing out a big bet (reminds me of Obie1 in that respect), locking up a quick win, then hitting the road. His two-hit progression is not a bad one.

[Golfer]

I met Dicer with Dylanfreak one time in Tunica. Nice guy, reminded me of the ZZ Top guys. He put a huge chunk out there on me and I 7'd out. Told him I was sorry but he shook it off. Nice friendly guy.


Golfer

[Dylanfreake]

I still see one or two of the guys Dicer hung around with in Tunica. I think ol` Dicer would leave Cincinnati around Thanksgiving or Christmas and winter over in Tunica , then play his way to Las Vegas . Stay there until summer and play his way back to Cincy , so that he could visit home for summer and fall.

[freak]

I like set plays like this and this does have some appeal but I doubt I'd ever try it live. In my experience it's pretty rare to get five hands in a row that achieve two hits. More likely is a few two-hit hands and a PSO. It would really be a drag to get to that 5th level and then lose all that's been built up. I guess it's all in your perspective but I would prefer not to lose in that way. It's also difficult for me to watch a long hand go by. In the average session we play there's usually at least one double digit roll. A hand in the 20s can erase a lot of PSOs. For this reason I rarely come completely down anymore. I'll at least leave one number up for a chance to grow more profit on top of the first two hits that are locked up.

[magoo]

$5Bill or Heavy
When you say wait for a decision does it matter if the decision is the point or a seven out and what if you're on the first hand or second hand and the seven comes right after the come out what do you do next. I'm a little confused how it all works.
Thanks and I really like the forum

[$5Bill]

Magoo Said;
"When you say wait for a decision does it matter if the decision is the point or a seven out?"

"NO"
After you get your two hits, you take all your bets down.
If you seven out after all your bets are down, Just wait until you get the dice back again and continue on to the next level.

If you make the point, continue tossing until you get two hits. Then just go to the next level.


Magoo asked;
What if you're on the first hand or second hand and the seven comes right after the come out what do you do next?

The chart tells you exactly where you stand at all times and how much you will win or lose at any point. I have this problem remembering things or the dealer distracts you, so I always have a copy of the chart with me so I know what to do next. (BTW, you can quit at any point and take what profit you have)

Take the 1st hand for example;
Your first bet is $44 working on the come out. (So if the seven comes you lose $44) You get your first hit,now you are up $14 but you have to press your inside bets up one unit or $22 inside. That makes $52 at risk to a 7-out. You get the second hit and the payoff is $21. At that point you have completed 2 hits so take all of your money down and wait until the point is made or you 7-out. (You are up $35 after you completed the 1 Level.)

At any point you seven out at any level, You must start all over on the 1st Level (1st Hand). Just ask if you have anymore questions.



$5Bill

[Americraps]

Freak- You take two hits each point cycle, not each hand. So, if you had a hand that made 4 or more points, you could complete all 5 levels in 1 hand. To recap the system, WOTCO you take two hits and then down until a PL decision, then you go up again at the next level. So, you could get your two hits, then take all your bets down and seven out. Next time you get the dice, you begin at the next level. Any time you get wiped out with bets up there you start the progression over from the beginning.

$5Bill came to practice the other day and he played Dicers strategy and I played a flat $44 inside, WOTCO. At the end of the session, he was up $271, and I was up $20. His srr was below 6 for the session. Now, had his SRR been around 8, I think the $44 inside might have prevailed, I'm just guessing though.

I have been wargaming this strategy for a couple of hundred tosses and so far, I like it, I give it a book or two before I make any decisions.

[bobthetree]

Looks like a good strategy to me but there is something to consider. The charts don't do much to explain the volatility. $5Bill is right about being done at whatever level you are comfortable at when you are in the action here. If you decided to play this to the 5th level every time no matter what then you would want to do some analysis over 1000 - 2000 tosses at home on how it would play out. To explain the volatility in an anecdotal way without digging into the detailed math that would need to go on: If you were to break even on this play over time that would mean that one win would be covering 8.43 of your next attempts if they all lost in the worst case scenario (-44 PSO). That means that this is a definite multi-session volatility type of setup. I mean, it's rare that I would toss 8 hands in a session, and that's just if it plays average, much less any cold streak you might see. It can be pretty difficult to get used to that kind of volatility where you stand a good chance of getting beat up several sessions in a row. Now if you are walking away when you lose the $44 in worst case scenario, then maybe it doesn't sting in the same way.

I think it has merit in many ways, but I like $5Bill's discussion about stopping at different levels.

[Americraps]

Well, Here's something to add to the pot-

I just finished a book of rolls with srr of 6.92 and Box to 7 of 4.86. Using Dicers strategy with a $10 naked PL, I made $894 profit.
Using a flat always up $44 inside WOTCO with a $10 PL, I would have made $882. Not too much difference.

The volatility didn't feel too bad, but I didn't keep track of the BR swings. Forced to guess, I would say that Dicers strategy has less wild swings than $44 across never come down.

I felt like I should have made more money. I threw some long hands and missed a bunch of payoffs by pulling down after 2 hits, and I went down at least 3 times trying to get that last hit on the 5th level. Sevening out before the last hit in the sequence means you lose $6 for a lot of work. Very frustrating.

I think I'll try this again and tweak the system to add a hit to the first 4 levels. That extra hit will ensure profitability if you make it past the 2nd round. I will also consider raising the PL bet from $10 to $15 as it does offer a hedge when you are WOTCO.

[Americraps]

I didn't like the 2 hit version because you can go all the way through and 7 out at the wrong time and still lose money, so I made a 3 hit version. I used it last night at a full table with my brother and his son and friends at the casino. Up $178, but the table was hot.
I can't seem to post a pdf version of this chart, but I will be happy to email it to anyone interested, just pm me with your email address.

2/21 Edited to add a corrected version

[$5Bill]

Hi Americraps

I looked over your 3 hit Progression. It looks cool. I'll have to try it out the next time I am at the casino.

$5Bill

[$5Bill]

I was looking thru my Craps play Folder on my computer and I found a post that Heavy posted back in April of 2002 about Dicer's Strategy. You would have to have an awful big bankroll to play it this way but since it's about Dicer's Strategy, I thought it belonged in this thread.

$5Bill

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Heavy
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Joined: Apr 2002
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Posts: 7,240
Re: One hand before calling it a night
« Reply #25 on Yesterday at 10:15pm »

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Some of you guys mentioned that you'd seen old Dicer up in the Tunica market recently. I decided that for tonight's play I'd dust off one of Dicer's old strategies - which is a two-hit-and-down play you make on five consecutive hands.

For this example I'm going to use just three hands instead of five. To keep this play on a level commensurate with Dicer's betting style we'll start right off with $4400 inside. The strategy - as I have it written out - is designed for betting on others. By that I mean there is no pass line or odds bet factored in. For the sake of this example I'll include a $50 Pass Line bet with $100 odds.

On the first hand we'll want to press all of the inside numbers off the first hit. The payoff will be $1400. We'll drop an additional $800 on top of that and press everything. The second hit will pay $2100. At that point we take all of our bets down and wait for a decision on the Pass Line. Profit for the first hand - if completed - should be $3500.

On the second hand we really step up. Starting with $4400 inside, on the first hit we'll collect $1400. We'll drop an additional $3000 on the layout and press to $8800 inside. The next hit on an inside number will pay $2800. Bring everything down for a cumulative $7700 profit.

On the third hand we start out with $6600 inside. The first payoff kicks off $2100. We drop $2300 on the layout and press to $11,000 inside. The next hit pays $3500. Bring everything down for a cumulative $13,300 profit.

Okay, let's try this with tonight's rolls:

$4400 inside, WOTCO. $50 on the Pass Line.

Toss one: Yo, eleven. Plus $50

Toss two: Six hard. Plus $1400. Drop $800 and press to $6600 inside. I'm not taking any place bets down because we have a minimal Line Bet. Take $100 odds behind the six.

Toss three: Nine. Plus $2100. Take all place action down. Cumulative win off place action - $3500.

Toss four: Nine. No decision on bets.

Toss five: Six easy. Plus $50 on the line and $125 on the odds bet. Total amount ahead for series, including come out Yo in first hand - $3725.

Next hand: $4400 Inside WOTCO. $50 Pass Line.

Come out roll: Nine. Collect $1400. Drop $3K. Press to $8800 inside. Take $100 odds on the Pass Line.

Roll two: Eight. Collect $2800 and down on all Place action. Win for this hand $4200. Cumulative two hand total $7725 profit.

Roll three: Eight. No impact on our wagers.

Roll four: Seven out. Lose $150 Pass Line and Odds. Net two hand total plus $7575.

Third and final hand. $6600 Inside WOTCO. $50 Pass Line. I should warn you that "Heavy gets horny" on this series. This is a prime example of why I don't like the V-3 set without my set tweak.

Come out roll: Yo, eleven. Plus $50

Come out roll II, the sequel: Three Craps. Minus $50

Come out roll III, Frodo gets lost in the trees. Six hard. Plus $2100. Drop $2300 and press that action to $11,000 inside. Take $100 odds behind the line. Prepare to pucker.

Fourth toss: Three craps.

Fifth toss: Two craps.

Sixth toss: Five. Collect $3500 and down for the hand. Profit for the hand $5600. Profit for the series to now $13,175.

Seventh toss: Yo, eleven.

Eighth toss: Six easy. Plus another $175. Total for the three hand series - plus $13,350.

Okay, just for grins I'll tell you that that last hand continued for five more tosses. They were: 7 - 8 - 12 - 9 - 7 out. So if I had continued to play the five step series as Dicer has it laid out I would have picked up an additional $17,600 on that hand. One more hand with two hits would have earned an additional $28,600. The total win for the five-hand series would have yielded a total of around $37,000.

[Americraps]

Thanks for posting that $5Bill. It will be exciting to get my bets up that high, wahoo!
I just finished a book of rolls with the 3 step and there needs to be some changes.
I had an srr of 6.73 and a box to 7 of 4.75, so I should have made money, but I actually lost $100. Why? Because I never made it all the way through the progression. Had I stopped after level 4, I would have made out like a bandit. So, my advice to others is either cut out level 5, or shorten level 4 and 5 to 2 hits.
I'm using a x6 set and at times, I threw a lot of outside and horn numbers, so I would add a pitch count for each level.
Something like if no hits in 4 tosses take it down.
I have used dicers 2 and 3 hit progression twice in the casino and won both times, but on both occasions, I started the progression over with each shooter. Some shooters I took 2 hits, some I took 3.

I believe the system works, but it needs to be tweaked. I am moving on to the 4 step regression.

[Americraps]

Just an update here. I am 7 wins out of 11 trys with a small positive net, using the 3 hit strategy with Dicers progression on all shooters. On warm tables, you make a killing, on cold tables, you get destroyed quickly. My adjustment is to play this system on other DIs, and do something else on the knuckle draggers. I'll be trying out a friends don't system tonight if its a cold table.