Windshield Time and Betting Strategies

[heavy]

Most of you guys know that I put in a significant amount of windshield time on the day job. Just last week, for example, I rolled 1400 miles on the new Jeep. Admittedly, I worked a seven day week and put in around 10 hours a day - 13 hours one day. And, I spend a fair amount of time BS'ing with Jeep dealers and off-road guys - not to mention the fact that EVERY time I stop to fill up the Jeep someone walks over and asks "That thing really have a 6.4 Hemi in it?" Which leads to lifting the hood, letting them take photos, and cranking it up for them so they can hear it run. But back on the windshield time thing . . .

Often, when I'm cruising across some place like Kansas or West Texas I find my mind drifting to betting strategies. I suppose I should start using the digital recorder on my phone to keep track of some of the things that fire in the old brain pan. Recently, I've been kicking around the ever-asked question - what does it take (beyond gaining an edge) to win question. Several things come to mind, but I also find myself questioning some of them from time to time. For example, I've always said "If you are unwilling to bet the Don'ts then get used to losing half the time." At least that holds true when betting on randy over the long run. But actually, on randy you're going to lose a little MORE than 50% of the time because of that 1.41% house edge thing that us "even money" guys tend to ignore when talking about such things. Nevertheless, I do think you need to be adept at playing the Don'ts if you want to be a long run winner. Of course, when do you play them? Well, that's where those trend things we keep talking about come in. Or do they? The math guys tell us that in a random game the dice have no memory, charting is worthless, yata yata yata. I'll tell you I've seen plenty of evidence to the contrary. My buddy Irish will tell you THAT is a case of confirmation bias - seeing what I want to see. So we chase the question round and round and nobody wins. Or do they?

Moving along. Let's talk about pressing a bit. On another thread there's a conversation going on about a well heeled player who used to press 30% pretty much every hit. That might be a little deceptive. As I recall, this particular gent was not a place bettor. He was a PL and Come bettor - with odds. A guy playing a 100X odds game where he starts out playing 10X odds can press a long way without varying his flat bet. Pressing by 1/3 his odds (with a 25 flat bet) could go from $250 to $320 to $410 to $530 to $600 to $780 to 1000 to . . . well, all the way up to $2500 before he'd have to increase the size of his flat bet. Not that that should bother him if he had $2500 in free odds on the table. But is that the only way to press your bets 1/3? I don't think so. I'm of the opinion that you could go "same bet" twice, then full press on the third hit and still be pressing by (approximately) 1/3 over the length of the hand - while being just a tad more conservative at the same time.

Moving along. I used to play with a guy whose action looked like this in a 20X odds game:

$250 Pass Line. When the point is established take $5000 odds.
Buy the four and ten for $2500 each.
Place the six and eight for $1200 each.
Make three $500 Come bets with $10000 odds each.
Follow that with continuous $250 Come bets with $2500 odds each.
Any time the Come traveled to the even numbers he took down the Place/Buy bets.

I've seen this guy win close to $200K at a session.
I've seen this guy lose close to $200K at a session.

He gets great comps.

Moving along. At the end of the day it DOES matter how you play if you don't have an edge. Give some thought to that when you're behind the windshield this week. Let me know if you figure it out.

[Dylanfreake]

It doesn`t matter how you play , if you don`t have an edge---rightside , darkside, single odds , max odds, place bets only, lay bets only, come, dont come, any come----as long as you bet within your bankroll and leave the table when you are ahead.

[London Shooter]

I think it does matter how you play if you don't have an edge Dylan. I'm a lot more into the maths of the game than the charting or intuition, so be definition I simply stay away from those high house edge bets.

Of course I don't get the high five experience when my parlayed hard 8 hits for the third time, nor when the horn string produces 5 on the bounce, but those bettors cannot grind out table time as much as I can......but then again, many seem to turn up to the table looking for the instant gratification of a high odds payout and aren't concerned about how long their money may last.

[heavy]

Yeah, one of the things I forgot to mention was the secret to winning. Quit while you're ahead.

[bryfromtheharbor]

10k bankroll and lock up $200 wins play on with profits above the $200.

[Michael]

Bry.
I like your plan.
Got 10K I can borrow ?

[gargoil]

To me it's about Risk VS Reward. For example If you go $54 across for one hit then down, you are risking $54 to earn $14 or $16. If you leave it up there for 2 hits then down you doubled your reward but you also doubled your risk. If you are going to risk the $54 even for 1 hit then down, you have convinced yourself that you are willing to lose that $54 but hope to make $14 or $16. Since you are willing to part ways with it why not go for the double or triple even.
What if you don't want to risk $54 but are willing to let go of $12. You can go 6/8 for $6 each, take two hits then down. You made your $14 by only risking $12. Obviously the shooter will need to hit your numbers in order for you to make that profit but the point here is that you can earn the same profit by risking a portion of the $54.

Again it's all about Risk VS Reward

[ComeOut7]

To me it's about coming home a winner. I play several ways....But mainly only win big on my own rolls....Patience is hard at a craps table.....Betting on randies is tough not to do.

Taking a big risk on one roll is to me a lot smarter than small risk bets several times. If you lose the big one, well then session over!!

[Dylanfreake]

Well, I am so conservative when I play that I never consider playing high house edge wagers. Of course I have seen players making a killing tossing out Any Seven wagers and have seen some getting killed making the same wager, But I am not tempted.

There is a lot of temptation going on at a craps table. Just depends on how strong or how weak your faith is whether you will follow someone else`s play or play your own way.

[freak]

To me it's about Risk VS Reward. For example If you go $54 across for one hit then down, you are risking $54 to earn $14 or $16. If you leave it up there for 2 hits then down you doubled your reward but you also doubled your risk. If you are going to risk the $54 even for 1 hit then down, you have convinced yourself that you are willing to lose that $54 but hope to make $14 or $16. Since you are willing to part ways with it why not go for the double or triple even.
What if you don't want to risk $54 but are willing to let go of $12. You can go 6/8 for $6 each, take two hits then down. You made your $14 by only risking $12. Obviously the shooter will need to hit your numbers in order for you to make that profit but the point here is that you can earn the same profit by risking a portion of the $54.

Again it's all about Risk VS Reward

Good point Gargoil. I think this is what led me to the idea of adjusting my regression play. Two hits and regress was leaving me with a small profit on short hands but no chance for a decent win from my $44 risk on a decent hand that started with 5 clean inside rolls. Similar to you, I now admit I'm willing to risk $44 so why not give myself a chance to get a return of at least $44+ before I regress or take it down. I lose my $44 more often this way but when I do win it's a much bigger win that offsets the losses. One other thing I'd add though is risk is not only measured by how much we have on the table but how long we leave it there. With only a few bets on the table it typically takes a lot longer to get two hits. And smaller bets take longer to achieve our win goals when they do hit. So $44 inside for 4 rolls of the dice is nearly the exact same risk as $6 each on the 6&8 for 16 rolls of the dice. As a player we have to decide it we prefer our risk in short aggressive bursts or modest bets over a longer period of time.

Heavy - I like the idea of full pressing the third hit. Easy way to press by 1/3. L is very willing to put up a big bet for the first roll but then likes to regress and take same bet forever. I'm going to try and talk her into a full press on the 3rd hit. Just pretend the 3rd hit never happened. But if a 4th hit happens it's a nice green-chip score!