questions on MP's $204 strategy

[HornHighJoe]

for those who are unfamiliar with the strategy: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3423#p46543

My main concern is regarding when to place the 4/10 since we do not normally place/buy those numbers.

1) What signs do you look for that make you decide to cover the 4 and/or 10?
2) When you do decide that 4/10 are showing, do you cover both (being sister numbers) or do cover just one and wait for signals from the other number to cover it?
3) When you are at the start with $204-across and the first two hits are the 4 and/or 10 would you go $64 across instead of just $44 inside?
4) What do you do when the point is the inside number. Do you bring that amount and put it as your odds or do you leave it up (as a place bet) and use other monies as (full) odds?

Thank you,
TheStoic

[Mad Professor]

Hi Stoic,

Once I regress my $204-Across down to $44-Inside (and commence Passive-Aggressive Pressing on the Inside-numbers); I rarely re-include either the 4 or 10 back into my betting-mix.

I can't say I never do it when I am using the MP-$204 on other skilled-shooters; but it is rare for me to re-bet the 4 and 10 once we get past the first two paying-hits of the Across-wager.

Over the six-plus years that I've been using the MP $204-Across two-hit equal-Pay Regression on other skilled-shooters; I have learned that messing with the already-proven formula, only diminishes overall net-profit.

That is, the more I try to make it 'better' (by adding more bells and whistles into the betting-mix); the lower its overall profitability.

So while a 'rule-exception' may prove more profitable on a few hands in the short-run; it always ends up taking away even more from all of the other hands when viewed in its totality.

I want durable and reliable wins, and to get them, I am winning to forego covering all of the box-numbers all of the time. So sometimes leaving out a wider-cast betting-net (or recasting it wider should certain indicators show themselves) would prove more profitable on some hands; I have found that the overall effect is less accretive than if I had stuck with my proven MP-$204 formula.


MP

[heavy]

Question: What strategy will lose you more money than $44 inside?

How about $110 inside . . . $220 inside . . . $660 inside.

What bet wins the casino more money overall than any other?

I'd say it's the $12 six and eight. Why? Because so many people bet it (we're talking about wagering on random rollers here).

The KEY to making MP's $204 across strategy work is the regression. About the only think I can think of that might make it better is to regress to $0 after two hits. Just thinking out loud.

[Riggs]

MP is your reluctance to re-add the 4 & 10 about house advantage?
If so, would you feel differently at a place that has no vig upfront on buys and starts buys at $10 (paying $19 or even $19.50 as at Main Street Station)?

[Mad Professor]

Hi Riggs,

My reluctance about re-adding the 4 and 10 back into the betting-mix once I regress everything down from $204-Across to $44-Inside; is based on what most dice-influencers produce most often...or rather...what most dice-influencers DON'T produce often enough.

Take 40,000+ in-casino group-shoot rolls tossed by several dozen skilled-shooters (all members here) that were tracked over several thousand hands; and you'll find that adding the 4 and 10 back in after the initial regression, while very profitable on some hands, is actually net-decretive in their totality.

In this case, it's not a matter of vig, but rather one of average-hand duration, and the spectre of putting more money into a rapidly-declining hand-survival rate.

That's not for me.


MP

[Riggs]

Thanks - understand!