Dodging bullets / playing the dont pass using MP's strategy

[Shiraz]

Flaplayer: Please correct my maths. On shooters 2nd point you lose 200 with 1400 total 1600. Now if shooters 3rd point is 4 and he throws a 7, you only win 300 + 900 total of 1200. So you lose 400. Please explain. Thnx. Shiraz.

[Shiraz]

Heavy - I requested Flaplayer to correct my maths, but I guess he must be too busy making money at the craps table. Can you please comment on my maths. Thnx. shiraz.

[bahdbwoy]

played the dodging bullets on a casino cruise last night...

within the first hour i lost the $75 tier and chickened out on the $155 since it was early i took a shortened L to keep playing.. DAMN PSO was next so i missed out.

you got to be all in and just live with it..

i was able to turn it around and work my way back up and left with a $70 win but had i not chickened out obviously i would never have had to dig out of the hole.

$10 limit and i small bankroll so did 10/15/35/75/155 . i did get to the $75 two more times and won them both.

i kept playing that way as the shooter since i dont think i have much faith that i could bust myself... a few ace duece and no seven/yo throws on the comeout while shooting did help me in my rebound.

[Mad Professor]

Hi bahdbwoy,

A couple of the guys who say they've mastered the "Shoot to Win" bubble-dice game apparently use my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Grand Martingale on those machines with a good degree of success.

I'm not a big fan of those games so I haven't validated their claims with my own play on them, but it's good to hear that you had success with it in live play.


MP

[Golfer]

I played the bubble game for 10 mintues when visiting New Orleans last month. The guy next to me told me that he was having success when a 7 was showing on top during the start up......he would immediately pop the button. I didn't see any pattern. The short leash would work from what I saw as a random game. I couldn't stand it. The roulette machine I can deal with, not craps. The reason I tried it at all was the powers to be had 1 game open at 8am on a weekend with 5-8 players hovering. Dumb.


Golfer

[bahdbwoy]

5-15-35-75-155

at the 15 level is it worth doing a PL for 5 and just add any winnings to repeat bet in the event of a bust it will offset a little? instead of -285 you end at -210.. you skim off 5 per win thougj to account for the 5 loss on the DP win?

[wudged]

Instead of doing that, just reduce the don't side by 5. You will net the same, and it will actually be better because you won't lose the $5 passline on a comeout 12.

[bahdbwoy]

no but lets say you bust you would lose 285... but if you start parlaying on the PL at the 15 level you negate some of that loss.. but at the expense of $5 on each win you dont bust..

5 lose
15 lose but 5 pl win
35 lose but parlay 10 pl win
75 win so you win 20 - original 5 pl flat bet so win 15 instead of 20?

[wudged]

What do you when you have 35 don't / 10 pass and there is a come out 12? Now you've lose an additional $5 (original pass line) and need to put another $10 on the pass line.

Why not just go 5-10-25-55?

[bahdbwoy]

duh.. thanks... think ill stick to the standard and the cowtip play

[djj711]

does anyone have any info on the Dodging Bullets (Don't strategy) from MP? I tried some of the links from this thread and it looks like the diceinstitute.com is either down or not working on my browser.

thanks!

dj

[Mad Professor]

does anyone have any info on the Dodging Bullets (Don't strategy) from MP?

Hi DJ,

You will find all of those articles here:

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider...Part 1
http://web.archive.org/web/201101311208 ... sider.html


Dodging Bullets as a Darksider - Part 2
http://web.archive.org/web/201101311119 ... art_2.html


FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash - Part 1
http://web.archive.org/web/201101311157 ... leash.html


FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method - Part 2
http://web.archive.org/web/201101311206 ... ethod.html


FAQ’s About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method - Part 3
http://web.archive.org/web/201101311110 ... ethod.html


MP

[Jazzycat]

Hi MP,
In Dodging bullets Part II, you mentioned a DB Part III (not to be confused with your 'FAQs Part III'). Do have a link to DB Part III?
Thank you,
Jazzy

[Mad Professor]

Hi Jazzy,

I never did get that piece posted.

It is probably still queued up on my Commodore 64.


MP

[Jazzycat]

Hi again MP,
No problem. Thanks for your response. I enjoyed reading about your strategy.

J

[SHOOTITALL]

Guys: This is some really important and useful stuff from MP. You should get it in you dice stuff so you don't lose it. I keep going back and rereading and learning again and again. Just my opinion.

[heavy]

Talk about retro - a discussion of MP's old Dodging Bullets on the Don't Side articles. Yeah, it's another Heavy "BUMP."

[heavy]

Many do.

[stratocasterman]

Grand Martingale or my preferred "Target Betting" Progression on the DP with rules...I love it! Had never seen this thread before. Thanks for the bump Heavy!

[DarthNater]

Hi Strato,
A huge post to factor into the play is the one by MP that gives light to the 7 and 11 on the CO.

I read the above earlier posts about MP’s strategy of invoking the Grand Martingale for his Choppy Table Short Leash strategy. Let’s realize a few details that sometimes get under-appreciated. First in the CT-SL MP’s original strategy was to not initiate the first $5 DP until after the shooter makes his first point; repeat – point - not a come-out natural. Secondly, it’s the Grand Martingale, so after the fifth bet of $155, the net profit is $25. Sure you can shave the DP bets, depending on if you are willing to win less, but playing the straight CT-SL you are essentially risking $155 to win $25 on that fifth cycle. Should you choose to risk $210 to win a net $5, I guess that’s your choice. My thinking is if you’re going to the fifth level then get the full reward. Thirdly, we need to remember the overall objective of the CT-SL isn’t to get you to that fifth level, but rather for you to gain a net profit from each shooter; until it’s your turn to shoot applying your DI skills. Said differently at level 3, you’re getting a $15 profit against a risk of $35. Level four is risking $75 for a $20 profit. Yeah, I know that’s obvious to some, but it’s still the approach that you’re taking. MP says as much as when you take it to the fifth level – you might feel a bit of a pucker, especially if your unit is the $50 he cites in CT-SL Part III, vice his $5 unit examples in Parts I & II. Fourthly, the Sheriff & the Deputy can really wreck havoc.

MP also acknowledges in his CT-SL Part II that if you elect his “Early Trigger Start” on tables you deem as colder, i.e beyond choppy, that he starts with the initial $5 bet on the shooter. That can be ok but IMHO also exposes you to the Sheriff and the Deputy sooner in the shooting cycle – again your choice. When MP originally released his series on the CT-SL, and the Dodging Bullets….., and his Shooting from the Don’ts Journey…….; he & I corresponded at length about the Sheriff and the Deputy and how they effect the CT-SL strategy. They can really get you to that fifth cycle QUICKER than you want to get there – and more frequently. [More frequently means warming table] When you read his articles he cites a lot of his actuals. However, I wanted to do more analytics with his data especially with regard to how frequently the S & D drive you quicker to the deeper levels. My specific focus was to get his raw data that he based his dollars won/per hour stats. As the key was how many times did the S & D drive you deeper faster. Regretably he wasn’t able to put all that data back together in a meaningful state for me to crunch. So, I relied on the theoreticals, which he also quotes in CT-SL Part I – once about every 4.5 tosses is the 7 or 11 – or more strategically put – you’ll likely encounter a 7 or an 11 PRIOR to Level 5. That’s ignoring the 3’s & 2 winners which are theoretically 1 every 12 tosses – strategically put – that one DP instant winner every third shooter if each shooter takes you to level 4.

So, what’s the point of all this? I think for a successful CT-SL grind you really need to be a watcher – not a waiter. First, if three shooters in a row get to Level 4 ---- well, in the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger “Get out – get out – NOW!”. That table ain’t choppy, nor cool trending! Next, decide for yourself which level you want to STOP at…. Two come-out knockdowns at the beginning may signal that the table isn’t as choppy as you think - is a warming trend emerging? If you think its warming - stop. Usually if its 2 sevens back-to-back, I stop. If it’s a seven and an eleven, I’ll consider going the next level, provided I was successful on the previous shooter. The bottom line for me remains that for every loop around the table, one shooter is going to take you deep into the levels, especially if 1 out of every 4.5 comeouts could be a natural. Yeah I know that a 2 or 3 really helps the recovery, but sometimes they just disappear, leaving you with tougher water to navigate. Regardless, realize that just like a couple of PSOs can kill a perceived warm table; a couple of come-out 7s/11s may be signaling a warming trend.
D.N8r