People often ask about my notebook at the tables. The most common theme is "So what does the book tell you?" I've sort of settled on a standard answer. "The book tells me that ANYTHING can happen in the short term, but the SAME thing always happens in the long run."
On any given roll or session a particular number or segment might be hot or cold. But all it takes in my experience is about 30-40 hands and things level out darn close to statistical averages. Our tracking has confirmed the HA comes though almost exactly as expected over time. This has influenced our play in several ways. 1) We rarely if ever hedge any more. No craps checks or betting a hard 6 if my DC travels to 6. In the long run naked means you lose less. The exception would be if we're on the edge of our session loss limit. I might do craps check then to be sure I don't bust out on a CO horn string. 2) We tend to use plays that stand a good chance if the rolls are average. Many regression plays work well on average 4 - 9 roll hands. Of course we get clobbered if hands are below average. 3) We try to stay in a position to be sure we can take advantage of the occasional long roll. We pay our dues and yield HA+ on the short rolls. We get some back on the long rolls. We can't beat the HA, but with a little luck we find a long roll with a profit that outweighs the previous losses for that session. We used to miss a lot of the long rolls either from being afraid of volatility or just afraid to take the risk of losing. We've had enough dice rolls now to know that the dice are rarely the same short-term, but always balance out long term.
Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I wanna see the dust...
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London Shooter
- Posts: 2590
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I'm looking forward to the long run kicking in a bit this way. Short term I am losing too much of late so welcome things balancing out 
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I have played enough craps to consider it "long run" but as far as seriously working on DI I am still in the short run. I gave up craps for several years to concentrate on Black Jack but the BJ games are so bad here at home that I decided to tackle craps again also.irish wrote:So, have you played enough to have experienced enough decisions and dice rolls for probabilities to hold true? (It's a common misconception/misrepresentation that it takes a million rolls) What say you? Are short term results (session to session) and the "The Long Run" mutually exclusive to one another? Does your opinion on this this influence your thoughts on the HA? How so?
As far as HA I have always tried to concentrate on low HA bets. I very rarely make middle bets and I have never made a hedge bet in my life. My worst offense is making place bets and sticking with them instead of coming out of the gate with come bets to replace them.
I still believe the biggest house advantage is their bankroll. Most people would lose money on craps if it was a 0 HA game due to poor bankroll management. Next biggest advantage is table limits.
Irish: I assume you are probably a come bet type of person. Do you make place bets and replace them with come bets or do you make come bets only, no place bets?
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AtGame7
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I've written an insanely long piece for another site about this very subject. I won't bore you all with the long of it, but the short of it is there really is no "Long Run", unless you are interested in a song by the Eagles.
In the mythical "long Run" the math holds 100% true and that is just not going to happen, ever. Let's say we decide that the long run is 100 Billion rolls of the dice and we somehow manage to live long enough to roll the dice 99,999,999,999 times and find that, for the math to hold true, the next roll needs to be a 9. Will the next roll absolutely be a 9? Certainly not. It may, but it will more than likely not be a 9. In fact the odds will still be 32-4 the the roll will produce a 9.
If the next roll is truly random, and they all are, then you have not hit the "Long Run". I think most of us believe that the more rolls we witness the closer to the true odds the cumulative results will be. That's probably true, but there is no guarantee since the dice have no memory and won't know what number they are supposed to land on next.
In the mythical "long Run" the math holds 100% true and that is just not going to happen, ever. Let's say we decide that the long run is 100 Billion rolls of the dice and we somehow manage to live long enough to roll the dice 99,999,999,999 times and find that, for the math to hold true, the next roll needs to be a 9. Will the next roll absolutely be a 9? Certainly not. It may, but it will more than likely not be a 9. In fact the odds will still be 32-4 the the roll will produce a 9.
If the next roll is truly random, and they all are, then you have not hit the "Long Run". I think most of us believe that the more rolls we witness the closer to the true odds the cumulative results will be. That's probably true, but there is no guarantee since the dice have no memory and won't know what number they are supposed to land on next.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I like AtGame7 comments.
However, I think the multi thousand casino rolls I have in a year means that I must disregard the variances that I experience in the casino and base my play/betting on what advantage (if any) my total base of throws has showed me. Betting on randies will be a loser for me as will bets made that I don't have an advantage on.
The above said, my next trip results can be a loss but that should not discourage me if my over all results show I have an advantage and I base my play on that advantage.
Noah
However, I think the multi thousand casino rolls I have in a year means that I must disregard the variances that I experience in the casino and base my play/betting on what advantage (if any) my total base of throws has showed me. Betting on randies will be a loser for me as will bets made that I don't have an advantage on.
The above said, my next trip results can be a loss but that should not discourage me if my over all results show I have an advantage and I base my play on that advantage.
Noah
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Americraps
- Posts: 1101
- Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:42 pm
- Location: Elgin, IL
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I'm sure I'm in the long run, but I keep making changes, putting me back in the short run. I would say I am a serial shortrunner.
See it in your mind FIRST...Then do it!
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
To me, the long run is when your win/loss is significant enough that it isn't likely to be overcome by a streak of bad/good luck. For a while, I was up over 5k and felt like I had made it. Then, through some bad luck and careless play at tables I didn't know with a higher vig, I'm now down almost 7k. Looking back at my log, the place I have played the most I'm still ahead, but knowing that just makes me feel stupid. 
So if I can win about 12k, without substantially changing the stakes I'm betting at, I'll feel like I am getting *back* into the long run! I think it will probably take a while.
- Bob
So if I can win about 12k, without substantially changing the stakes I'm betting at, I'll feel like I am getting *back* into the long run! I think it will probably take a while.
- Bob
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Americraps wrote:I'm sure I'm in the long run, but I keep making changes, putting me back in the short run. I would say I am a serial shortrunner.
Now, thats funny!Memo
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
irish,
The math is based on every roll of the dice and I think if one were to agree that the math says you'll lose in the long run you would have to be betting every roll of the dice without affecting the probability expectation. Are you (the general you) DI enough to affect it long term? Remember every time you bet on randies you incorporate the result of random rolls into your long term results.
AtGame7,
Probability long term doesn't mean that each number has to hit its exact expectation as that is probably unlikely. However any difference between the expected and actual over such a large amount of numbers is statistically insignificant. Technically you may be correct but it's a meaningless difference.
Kelph
The math is based on every roll of the dice and I think if one were to agree that the math says you'll lose in the long run you would have to be betting every roll of the dice without affecting the probability expectation. Are you (the general you) DI enough to affect it long term? Remember every time you bet on randies you incorporate the result of random rolls into your long term results.
AtGame7,
Probability long term doesn't mean that each number has to hit its exact expectation as that is probably unlikely. However any difference between the expected and actual over such a large amount of numbers is statistically insignificant. Technically you may be correct but it's a meaningless difference.
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Just a quick follow-up on the question regarding whether the math says a player will lose and which will no doubt get me into trouble. A distinction needs to be made between the random frequency of numbers based on all numbers and the frequency of those affecting an individual player (specifically DI because of this board) and how they are bet.
Number frequency may be fun to talk about but becomes much more interesting when combined with money. If one has a definable and proven number or numbers frequency advantage it comes down to how much and often do you vary the bet amounts. Poor betting plans can negate any individual advantage as can plain greed and betting on losing random rollers.
Kelph
Number frequency may be fun to talk about but becomes much more interesting when combined with money. If one has a definable and proven number or numbers frequency advantage it comes down to how much and often do you vary the bet amounts. Poor betting plans can negate any individual advantage as can plain greed and betting on losing random rollers.
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Yep irish.
Kelph
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Here's a thought for you. The greater your deviation from standard deviation results - the shorter the horizon to the mythical long run. With that said. Over the short run a huge deviation from standard deviation means you just got lucky. I'll let you guys chew on that for a while.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
heavy wrote: Over the short run a huge deviation from standard deviation means you just got lucky. I'll let you guys chew on that for a while.
Several years ago I was tossing alone on a Sunday morning with no success. A co-worker who had never tossed the dice in his life walked up to the other end of the table and was watching. I decided I needed a break so I tossed him a five dollar chip and talked him into tossing. He threw seven pass line winners, all numbers, no 7's or elevens, and who knows how many box numbers. He left $40.00 ahead, I left $800.00 ahead and everyone was happy.
As far as I know he has never tossed the dice since, is he a long term winner?.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
irish,
I'm leaning towards bobr's response sort of but without tying it to bad luck and dollars lost. I'd say long term is reached when the results of variance cease to have a meaningful statistical affect on the frequency of the cumulative numbers that have for all practical purposes achieved their predicted frequency.
This means your example of 3.600 rolls ending in perfect frequency is not long term if the next variance alters the overall frequency in a meaningful way. I don't know what amount of numbers reaches that criteria or if that would vary from person to person.
It does make me wonder about any DI with a definable and rather consistent advantage. If said advantage remains obvious in the cumulative numbers the long term frequency has not been reached as predicted even if the volume of numbers exceeds those considered long term for other players. On the other hand does that DI advantage become more diluted within the ever growing pool of numbers until it too submerges into predicted number frequency? It may take a lot more numbers for a DI to get there but as variance, from whatever source, has less of an affect leading to a statistically meaningless affect the long term arrives.
Kelph
I'm leaning towards bobr's response sort of but without tying it to bad luck and dollars lost. I'd say long term is reached when the results of variance cease to have a meaningful statistical affect on the frequency of the cumulative numbers that have for all practical purposes achieved their predicted frequency.
This means your example of 3.600 rolls ending in perfect frequency is not long term if the next variance alters the overall frequency in a meaningful way. I don't know what amount of numbers reaches that criteria or if that would vary from person to person.
It does make me wonder about any DI with a definable and rather consistent advantage. If said advantage remains obvious in the cumulative numbers the long term frequency has not been reached as predicted even if the volume of numbers exceeds those considered long term for other players. On the other hand does that DI advantage become more diluted within the ever growing pool of numbers until it too submerges into predicted number frequency? It may take a lot more numbers for a DI to get there but as variance, from whatever source, has less of an affect leading to a statistically meaningless affect the long term arrives.
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
irish,
My response seems to have vanished so I'll try it again.
Your last comment is disagreeing with something I didn't say. "Never" was not used or implied and regardless of your use of the word never I specifically addressed how a DI would enter the long term. My opinions and musings may be wrong at times and cause for disagreement but I prefer to only be held accountable for what I actually said.
Indeed those missing 7s in your example will not be made up but inundation will handle their impact.
Your description of long term appears awfully close to mine even if yours does seem more impressive. I can certainly agree that variance is meaningful in the short term but that same variance is not necessarily also meaningful long term. Such a situation doesn't require a reset button to make short term variance meaningful.
My turn to quibble. While I can technically agree that we play in the long term due to its cumulative nature of all sessions I believe we actually "play" in the short term. The decisions and adjustments made are based on the game unfolding right now especially in the heat of the game rather than on our long term standing. I don't consider myself qualified to speak for DIs but I would guess that set, grip, toss, landing and numbers and bet amounts are adjusted based on what is happening in a specific session and playing conditions or at least it carries more weight for the player's decisions.
I see long term as history and the future combined while the short term is the now of the present. The past can't be changed and the future is created and molded as each present session passes into history to await the next session result. Yes I very much believe we play in the short term. I also believe that a player needs to squeeze every bit of variance for wins in the short term and not bet them self out of being a winner and into being a loser even if it means cutting a session short to leave a winner with a smaller win. The bigger wins will come when they come and will not be forced.
These are just my opinions.
Kelph
My response seems to have vanished so I'll try it again.
Your last comment is disagreeing with something I didn't say. "Never" was not used or implied and regardless of your use of the word never I specifically addressed how a DI would enter the long term. My opinions and musings may be wrong at times and cause for disagreement but I prefer to only be held accountable for what I actually said.
Indeed those missing 7s in your example will not be made up but inundation will handle their impact.
Your description of long term appears awfully close to mine even if yours does seem more impressive. I can certainly agree that variance is meaningful in the short term but that same variance is not necessarily also meaningful long term. Such a situation doesn't require a reset button to make short term variance meaningful.
My turn to quibble. While I can technically agree that we play in the long term due to its cumulative nature of all sessions I believe we actually "play" in the short term. The decisions and adjustments made are based on the game unfolding right now especially in the heat of the game rather than on our long term standing. I don't consider myself qualified to speak for DIs but I would guess that set, grip, toss, landing and numbers and bet amounts are adjusted based on what is happening in a specific session and playing conditions or at least it carries more weight for the player's decisions.
I see long term as history and the future combined while the short term is the now of the present. The past can't be changed and the future is created and molded as each present session passes into history to await the next session result. Yes I very much believe we play in the short term. I also believe that a player needs to squeeze every bit of variance for wins in the short term and not bet them self out of being a winner and into being a loser even if it means cutting a session short to leave a winner with a smaller win. The bigger wins will come when they come and will not be forced.
These are just my opinions.
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
You know I don't understand why you don't treat yourself better do the crazy things that you do
'Cause all the debutantes in Houston, baby, couldn't hold a candle to you
Did you do it for love? Did you do it for money?
Did you do it for spite? Did you think you had to, honey?
Who is gonna make it? We'll find out in the long run
I know we can take it if our love is a strong one
Well, we're scared, but we ain't shakin' Kinda bent, but we ain't breakin'
in the long run Ooh, I want to tell you, it's a long run
'Cause all the debutantes in Houston, baby, couldn't hold a candle to you
Did you do it for love? Did you do it for money?
Did you do it for spite? Did you think you had to, honey?
Who is gonna make it? We'll find out in the long run
I know we can take it if our love is a strong one
Well, we're scared, but we ain't shakin' Kinda bent, but we ain't breakin'
in the long run Ooh, I want to tell you, it's a long run
==================================================
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
I came here expecting to read a serious response!!
Thanks for the laugh gargoil. I leave with a smile.
Kelph
Thanks for the laugh gargoil. I leave with a smile.
Kelph
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
The meaning of the lyrics of the song run deep. If you seriously listen and concentrate you will find an analogy between the topic and the song
==================================================
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Okay I guess now I have to follow it up with a serious post
I believe for some it may take a long run before probabilities and presumptions can occur while for others it can come quick and natural. The reason I say that is because it's not about logging numbers in a book and seeing what you may be able to do the next time you visit. It's about what you log in your mind in real time when at the table. It all depends on who is handling the dice at a particular time. If you are tracking you and only you then you should know from the third toss of the dice what to expect, what set to use, what angle, etc.. without writing down one single outcome. If you haven't achieved that then you are a long way from getting close to the long run.
I believe for some it may take a long run before probabilities and presumptions can occur while for others it can come quick and natural. The reason I say that is because it's not about logging numbers in a book and seeing what you may be able to do the next time you visit. It's about what you log in your mind in real time when at the table. It all depends on who is handling the dice at a particular time. If you are tracking you and only you then you should know from the third toss of the dice what to expect, what set to use, what angle, etc.. without writing down one single outcome. If you haven't achieved that then you are a long way from getting close to the long run.
==================================================
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... Practice reduces the imperfection.
Practice doesn't make perfect.... It just makes you better.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
NP irish. As always I enjoyed our conversation.
Kelph
Kelph