Determining your session stake

[Bankerdude80]

From a profit perspective, am I better off buying in for a larger amount, betting in larger increments and playing less frequently than buying in for smaller amounts, betting smaller and playing many more multiple sessions? I see drawbacks in both choices.

This question harkens to MP's, "Do ya wanna win or do ya wanna gamble?" My thinking is that by doing the latter I am spreading myself too thin and minimizing my chances at a profit. However, maybe by playing many more multiple sessions I have a better chance at catching the proverbial "hot roll" .

Is there an ideal session buy-in? (number of units). What say you?

Has anyone yet written "Money management for the weekend craps player"?

I think for me personally, I am so risk averse that I under-capitalize my game. I want to make something from nothing. I think over the long run this hurts my chances at success. How do we best calculate our session stake? We have to budget for bonus bets, hardways, random rollers and ourselves.

[heavy]

This is the classic "Which comes first - the big bet or the big bankroll?" question. The answer is really fairly simple. Your bet size is driven by your bankroll size IF you are going to adhere to sensible money management principles. Let's say you are what I'd refer to as a "serious recreational gambler." You play weekends for the most part - a LOT of weekends. You usually win, although it's often a small win. When you lose it's usually due to a momentary loss of discipline where you lose control of the emotional aspect of the game and chase your losses. But overall you understand what it takes to win and you play with a modest positive EV. Let's say your total bankroll (which is what I define as the amount of money you'd have to lose over a 1 year period before you'd say "screw this craps - I'm never playing again") is $156,000. That's $3000 a weekend to play with. So from there you have to break it down into session amounts. Let's say you're going to play one session Friday night, three sessions on Saturday, and one session on Sunday. That's five sessions at $600 per session. Now, simple as it may sound to some of you, it's time to set up your session envelopes. Get six legal size envelopes. Write Session One on the first one, Session Two on the next one, Session three on the third, etc. until you have an envelope for each of the five sessions. On the sixth envelope you write "Take Home Pay." That's where your profit for the weekend is going. Now, when you get to the casino you stick all but one envelope - Session One - in the room safe. Now you're ready to play your first session.

Before playing you should establish a win goal and a loss limit. On a $600 buy in I'd set a win-goal of 25%, or $150. Similarly, I'd set a loss limit of around $300. I'd also take an "up and pull" approach as described by John Patrick. As you win you gradually press your bets up. Let's say you count up and find yourself ahead $240. At that point you'd take your initial $600 buy in plus the $150 guaranteed win and put it in your back rack. That would leave you with $90 in chips plus what's on the table to continue to play with. As long as you keep winning you keep playing. But once the shooter sevens out it's time to seriously consider coloring up, taking down your bets and calling it a session. Staying longer rarely bodes well. And if at any time you end up losing half of that $90 and only have $45 left in the rack - it's "Color Coming In" time. Take the extra $45, add it to your back rack and walk with a $205 win. On the flip side, if at any time you find yourself down $300 you must end that session at once. Once you end your session you return to the room, open the safe and put ALL of the money - the initial $500 buy in plus the $215 win - OR the $300 loss limit save - in the "Take Home Pay" envelope. That money stays in the envelope until you get home to the bank.

Now let's talk about sizing your bets. With $600 in the session envelope your AVERAGE bet should be around 10% of that $600 - or $60. That's because you want to have at least ten shots at winning. It's up to you how you select which players hands you wager on. I prefer to bet on known DI's, my own toss, or players who are setting the dice and making an effort to influence the roll. Of course, I'll bet the Don'ts on Random Rollers and will follow the trend on pretty much everyone.

Now, remember that I said "Average Bet up above there." You can bet more than $60 initially, but you'll need to regress later to a smaller amount to improve your average bet size. To that end, you might play something like $88 inside or $96 across for one or two hits - then regress down to a simple $18 six and eight for one or two hits. On the next second hit on either, press that number to $42 OR press both numbers to $30. From that point on you'd stay at that level with no further pressure. Simple, right?

There are, of course, hedge plays you can make that will offer some protection you can use to help "average" your bets. Personally, I prefer to keep it simple.

Last of all, I'll recommend that whatever method you plan to use, play it against your own rules AFTER you test it out utilizing a combination of BoneTracker and WinCraps just to see how effective the results will be i live play. And remember, if you have a "signature" number like the five or nine - that's the number you should be betting instead of spreading chips all over the layout in hopes of getting a hit on something. Bet the numbers you throw in your practice sessions, copy your practice sessions.

[London Shooter]

Excellent summary above. A good reminder to many of us.

I'd also add the point which came up in my most recent trip report - if say above, you are betting $60 average on yourself and/or known shooters - whatever the plan may be, then stick to the plan. It's no good having a $20 or $10 bet on THE roll. Again, MP and others often talk about this. Maintaining bet levels per shooter at the right value for you and not being under-staked when a good roll comes because you got cold feet at previous losses.

Far better to take account of loss limits, walk and come back on the next session ready to fire with the correct size of bullets.

[Dylanfreake]

bankerdude , this is a topic that drove me nutty as I was trying to come up with an amount of loss limit , compared to Total Bankroll in relationship to bet per shooter.

15 years ago , not having much of a bankroll , I would play at the table long enough to get ahead and leave. I had a lot of $5 session wins. A $20 loss was devastating.

I still wanted and needed a way of managing my bankroll, which in August 2000, when I started gambling was $100. Later after my bankroll was a little larger , the old buy in for $200 and leave if you lost 50% of your bankroll , just didn`t do it for me. About 2005, my bankroll had reached a little over $2000 and I had decided to only play the darkside and to quit shooting the dice. At about the same time , I read Sam Grafstein`s book , The Dice Doctor, and from that book I came up with the way I do money management today. My buy in , wagering , loss limit and to some extent my win goal is all based on Sam Grafstein`s way of money management.

I take 4% of my Total Gambling Bankroll, which is my buy in and loss limit, divide that by 10 to get my wager per shooter.

Example: $10,000 (Total Bankroll) X .04 = $400 ( Buy In and loss limit ) divided by 10 = $40 ( to wager per shooter )

The above example is my guide and has eased my mind about how to size my wagers and loss limit at the craps table. I probably would not be playing craps today, if I had not read the book by Sam Grafstein.

[Bankerdude80]

Excellent advice from all. I really like this one from Irish:

Of course, if you forego the craps tables and sit at BJ or VP or slots for the rest of the day, then you're not accomplishing anything. To reduce hours of play, I now bring a book or two to Vegas. I try to schedule non-gambling and inexpensive activities like hiking or spending a couple of hours at the pinball museum. After more than 15 years doing the DI thing, I no longer have to spend endless hours at the tables in Vegas when I'm there for a 3-day weekend.

The envelope system has worked well for me (thanks Heavy!). Excellent recommendation with Grafstein, DF. Thanks LS for the "sticking to a plan" advice. When I say I think I'm under-capitalized, I will go in with a plan and then change it at the last minute. For example, I'll walk up to an empty table intending to buy-in for $600, but back down and buy-in for $300. I justify it with "it's just me" or "let's see how this table is". After I buy in, the table fills up and I'm grinding down from RR's. I could always buy-in for more when that happens, but I have been diligent in making sure I never dip into my wallet while I am at a table once I've bought in. I think it is a matter for me to re-evaluate and re-visit the basics of money management so as to keep reinforcing good habits and discipline for the future. Thank you everyone.

[heavy]

I understand just what you mean. That extra $300 will get you an elevator hooker at Aria on a Thursday night special. Of course, you have to be a fifty-story man and have the ability to perform for the security camera.

[Bankerdude80]

I understand just what you mean. That extra $300 will get you an elevator hooker at Aria on a Thursday night special. Of course, you have to be a fifty-story man and have the ability to perform for the security camera.

Wisearse. And here I thought you were an old sage. Surely spoken from experience.

elevator hooker? does that mean she goes up and down?

One day I'll have to tell you the story about my trip to the Four Season's at Mandalay Bay... Let's just say it was very surreal.

[London Shooter]

Only if you hit the right buttons.

[Dylanfreake]

I hit the wrong button at the Aria one night.

[London Shooter]

Do tell.....

[Iceman95]

Aria............

[Dylanfreake]

About five or six years ago, we checked into the Aria. It was a high classed joint. Our room looked down the strip but we could not figure out how to turn the TV on.

Frustrated we called the desk and said there is something wrong with the TV . A maintenance guy comes up and takes , what I thought was the flat looking clock from the nightstand , and fools around with it , makes a call , then informs us that the cable company is having problems but it should be fixed within the hour.

He leaves . Now we can`t figure out how to turn the lights on. I told Gail, "We should have never stayed in this high-classed joint." We look down the hall for someone in house keeping and a guy that works for the Aria with a tie on walks by and we grab him. He comes in the room and the first thing he does is pick up the flat -looking clock and starts fingering it, just like the maintenance guy. TV comes on and the lights come on and the curtains open. He shows Gail , how to turn the TV on and off by using the flat, what I thought was a clock.

We go down to the casino , play, eat dinner and later come back to the room. Gail picks up the flat clock, said what time it was and turns on the TV. I am ready to go to sleep so I search for the light switch and find a switch on the wall. So I hit the button and the TV goes off the lights go out and the curtains close . We are in total darkness , except for that darn flat clock.

Gail finally figured our how to get the TV and lights back on by using the flat clock which turned out to be an ipad. This was the first time either of us had ever seen and ipad face to face.

I told Gail in order for me never to feel like an idiot, we should never stay in a high classed joint again.

[London Shooter]

LOL nice story. I'll wager many have made a mess of all the new fangled technology some of the rooms have

[DarthNater]

Did this thread get hijacked? Before MP can post an Aerosmith link, here's my take.....

Regretfully I didn't have $156,000 to split into 52 parts, so I followed a different trail. Which now in retrospect seems like a good long term approach worth sharing.
I setup 8 envelopes with $500 each; additionally I told myself I would limit my craps bankroll investing to $300 per month from there going forward. Then took four of the envelopes to Atlantic City when Heavy did his last Crapsfest with Caveman (was that circa 2007?). I left four at home as AC had a sketchy rep and I was comfortable with four for the trip. As chronicled back then, I won a substantial amount that weekend that I put into Envelope #9. Since that time, I have been playing with Envelope #9, which has bred Envelope 9A & 9B. My slump of 2013 wiped out Envelope 9B. Slumps happen. Fortunately have seen a resurgence in 2015 and still working from Envelope 9A, which is slightly tattered but the Showboat logo is still intact; and have a nice crispy Bellagio envelope for the new 9B.
So, that's been my high level approach. At the table level, I buy-in for $400 or $500 on the strip; $200 off strip. I treat the buy in as "show" money, as I plan to only risk 50%. I minimum bet the 6 & 8 and/or darkside the randies; and load up more when I shoot and with other DIs. I look for a 20% gain, and a 40% lost limit per session, generally-and bail if the crew or players turn creepy. I also limit my daily losses to $400 regardless of number of buy-ins & my first day loss limit is $200 (damn jet-lag).

Seems to work for me. As to elevators, well....all that stays in Vegas......

D.N8r

[Mad Professor]

Did this thread get hijacked? Before MP can post an Aerosmith link, here's my take.....

That was almost funny.

This is my first post into this thread; so in the spirit of that comment...




MP

[DarthNater]

LOL! No elevator required.......

[Bankerdude80]

Thanks DN good to know the long term approach is working.

[London Shooter]

Great to hear DN that your winnings from so long ago are still the basis of what you play with now.

[Mad Professor]

Here are my thoughts on this subject:

Bankroll-anxiety is often the biggest and most difficult "unspoken" challenge that a dice-influencer can face.

Now I know that we're always talking about playing with a sufficient bankroll and that you shouldn't play with 'scared money'; but there's much more to it than merely mouthing those two gaming-verities.

So let's talk about it.

~When we walk into a casino, we all understand that there is some risk involved in playing.

How much risk we accept is somewhat up to us.

For example, if we play a 5-cent slot-machine; we know that the payback-rate will probably be somewhere between 85% and 93% (meaning the house-advantage will be around 7% to 15%, depending on the casino).

If we play Caribbean Stud, we know the house-edge is 5.2% (the same as it is for Roulette); and if you bet on random-rollers at craps; then the HA ranges from a low of around 1.4% to a high that approaches 25%.

In essence, as a random-betting gambler; the house ALWAYS has the edge...and if you are in the casino to gamble; then over the long term, you will lose.

Advantage-play dice-influencing seeks to turn that negative-expectation proposition on its head.

By de-randomizing the dice to an extent that is both measureable (quantifiable) and actionable (bettable); we can gain a positive-expectation edge over the house.

But here's the rub:

Even when you have the advantage; you won't be winning every bet that you make.

Just as a slot-machine sometimes pays out with varying sized payouts (in an apparent "win" for the bettor); so too will be the advantage-play dice-influencer lose a fair number of his positive-edged bets.

That is, in the process of gaining an overall net-profit win; you are going to sustain some losses along the way.

Now we obviously know that part of the A-P equation quite well by now; but what many players don't realize is the depth to which our gaming-bankroll will sometimes dip on our way to getting to that net-positive point.

That journey is made even more difficult when some of our money is ventured on non-advantaged bets that catch our fancy along the way.

Just as you sometimes win when you feed money into a negative-expectation slot-machine (where your bets are not advantaged by you having an edge); your non-advantaged craps bets will sometimes win too.

The thing to understand though, is that the more non-advantaged bets that you make when you play (even if they win); the further your positive-edge over the house is eroded.

Granted, this is the most difficult thing for most players to understand.

They reason that a negative-edged bets that wins, is better than a positive-edged bets that loses any day of the week.

On the face of this, it's true; but it's an entirely false premise if you are looking to make profitably-sustainable bankroll-growing money over a reasonable amount of time.

Why is that?

Because it's like putting $1 into a slot-machine...pressing the spin button...making $2...and then declaring that slot-machine play can be profitable.

Yes it was profitable after one spin; but feed it enough over a reasonable amount of time; and you'll see that that assumption is wrong.

It's the same with making non-advantaged bets in craps.

Sometimes you'll win and possibly even win big; but over a reasonable amount of time, all of those negative-edged bets will chip away and erode your bankroll.

If you think otherwise; then you've likely got a gambling problem.

So if we can still sometimes win when we are making negative-edged bets, and still sometimes lose when we are making positive-edged bets; then what are we supposed to do...and how much of a session bankroll do we need in order to weather intra-session volatility?

Great questions, right.

I'll address those next.



...to be continued...


MP

[Mad Professor]

When we walk into a casino, we have to have a clear-cut plan as to what we want our money to do for us.

If you give the standard simple answer of "Leave with more than I came with"; then your chances of consistently being able to do so is fairly low.

Why is that?

The job that we task our dice-influenced betting with is a highly-specialized one.

If we approach it the same way most gamblers approach it; then we'll almost always come away from the game the same way that most gamblers do .....MINUS more money than what we started with.

Taking fuller advantage of your D-I skills means that you have to use each of your betting-dollars to maximize the edge that you've gained over the house.

That also means that you have to minimize the erosive drag that non-advantaged bets have on your buy-in.

Have you ever sat down and seriously written down a profit-and-loss ledger on each of your bet-types.

For example, if you accurately knew what your "C&E" or "Any Craps" bets actually cost you in terms of net-dollars when you make them on random-rollers; you might think about checking yourself into rehab.

That's why most players won't put themselves (and their betting-habits) through such an exercise. They don't want to know the results...because if they did; they might have to give them up.

Instead, they'll blithely keep on tossing them out...and quickly tell you about the time back in 1988 that some random-roller turned their losing session into a winning one because of those bets.

Let me break this to you as gently as I can.

Non-advantaged bets have no place in your betting-regimen if you want to turn this game into a profitably sustainable one where you are making anything more than gas money.

If you are playing it for entertainment, fine; gamble away.

If you are a serious recreational gambler who loves the chase more than the kill; fine too...have at it.

There's room enough for everyone.

But if you are looking to substantially amp-up your A-P earnings based on your current D-I skill; then your random-gambling days have to come to an end.

That means that your days of chasing hunches, following random trends, and being guided by superstitions have to stop.

Every non-advantaged bet that you make (even if it turns into a winning one); takes you one step further away from realizing your fullest D-I potential, and keeps your current gaming-bankroll from growing at the multiple that it should.

Again, that whole "random-winning bet being net-negative to your bankroll-growth" concept is one of the most difficult ideas for most skilled-shooters to understand and fully comprehend (which also goes a long way to explaining just why it's so hard to wean yourself off of them).

I mean, if you are making random-bets and sometimes winning a few of them; then it's hard to understand why they don't serve your mid-horizon bankroll-growth.

Again, it's because random-bet wins in craps are very similar to slot-machine wins.

Yes, they sometimes pay off; but they do not have ANY bankroll-growth longevity to them...meaning, that you might be ahead for awhile; but not for long...and overall, they'll turn into a bankroll-drain whether you want to admit it or not.

So if our clear-cut plan doesn't include any non-advantaged wagers (other than if we have to bet on a random-roller or two so that we can get the dice when they cycle around to us); then what IS included in that betting-plan, and in what amounts should we be betting in order to give our D-I skills the best chance of growing our bankroll, but without causing any fits of high-buck anxiety in the process?


We'll get to than next.



MP