First some background.
There seems to be a lot of emphasis placed on a DI’s SRR, Seven to Rolls Ratio and for a long time I have gone along with this concept. It makes sense as one is looking to avoid a 7 once the point is established and perhaps make a 7 on the Comeout.
The flaw I see is in the way a SSR I measured is that if you roll a lot of junk, 2, 3, 11 and 12 and few Box Numbers but have a low incidence of 7’s your SRR looks good but you are still rolling a lot of junk. If I could bet on two shooters that had a 25 roll hand and one made mostly 6’s and 8’s while the other rolled a normal distribution of non 7’s, which would I prefer? Easy question. Same SSR, way different results.
I ascribe to the idea that I continue to learn things and therefore I must regularly reassess my strategies to determine if I can gain more advantage as the result of my new understandings and abilities. I never change my mind. Of course I do reserve the right to make a new decision based on new information.
Wisdom is only wisdom if it holds up to additional scrutiny.So maybe determining a SSR is not as useful as has been thought to be and a SSTR, Seven to Surf and Turf Ratio or the ratio of 6’s and 8’s to 7’s might have some value especially if coupled with a playing strategy that emphasizes 6’s and 8’s. SBR, 7’s to Box Number ratio might be useful too but that a topic for another day.
I had been using a “Shoot for 7” Comeout strategy, setting the dice in a 7, no 4 no 10 arrangement and doing pretty well, more often than not getting at least one 7 and sometimes getting two or more 7’s on the Comeout before establishing a Point.
What has happened to prompt a change?
Lately, to which some who were at the recent Craps Fest can attest, when I get dialed in I punch out a lot of 6’s and 8’s, especially 8’s. This probably has something to do with the fact that regardless of the Point I set for 6 and 8 and that my DI is improving. I set for 6 and 8 because they are the numbers with the lowest vig when Placed, 1.52%. Plus 6 & 8 combined vs 7 is 10:6.
Another consideration is that I would like to leave less money on the table when the 7 does show and yet have sufficient opportunity to make money. The old double edged sword, you don’t get paid on bets you don’t have down and when the 7 comes, it clears the table of all Do type bets. So how to optimize the bets I have down so that I win the most and lose the least for the rolls I make?
With the “Shoot for 7” Comeout strategy I seem to have fewer 4’s and 10’s as the Point but would have some 5’s and 9’s when I would rather have 6 or 8 than anything else so lately I have be experimenting with using the same set on the Comeout as I use during the Point Cycle.
And now to the "Surf and Turf" Strategy
During the Comeout, place the 6 and 8, working and make a Pass Line bet similar to one of the Place bets. For example a $6 Place bet on the 6 and 8 and $5 on the Pass Line or $12 on the 6 and 8 and $10 on the Pass Line. In order to focus on the basics I will post the progression strategy later.
If you get a 6 or 8, take that Place bet down, lay Odds equal to the Pass Line bet and go to work. You now still have only three bets on the table, the original Pass Line bet, Odds on the Point and a Place bet on the pair number and you put one unit plus a little in the rack.
Advantages:
• You have two Box numbers that win on the Comeout.
• You have established the best number (easiest to hit and smallest vig on your Pass Line bet) as your Point.
• You lay Odds that pay even money instead of a Place bet that has a 1.52% vig.
• You have probably established your 'Signature' number as the Point.
• You reduce your exposure on the table as you have only three bets on the table, Pass Line, Odds and one number Placed. You can be out on the Point on $16 and have the two best Box Numbers working.
• The $16 included $7 in winnings so really your exposure is only $9 on a $5 table, $18 on a $10 table.
• On a $25 table your net exposure for the Point cycle is $48.
• The probability of winning the Pass Line bet during the Point cycle increases substantially, 5:6 vs 2:3 or 1:2.
• It is scalable. As you hit the number and make points you can increase your bets in unit increments.
• The House advantage on the Pass Line bet (may) come(s) down as the adverse probability of making the 4, 5, 9 or 10 when they are the Point is reduced since they will be the Point less often. I need to crunch the probabilities to find out.
Disadvantages:
• On the Comeout you lose about half of your money wagered if you roll a 7. (Don’t roll a 7 on the Comeout. LOL).
• You have to educate the dealer as it is not a usual bet to have Box Numbers working on the Comeout. Most of the dealers I have encountered do well with it pretty quickly and will accept of even offer to establish a verbal contract. It makes life easier for them.
• There are more moving parts. If you hit a 6 or 8 on the Comeout you get paid (which is a good thing) on that bet and would want to take it down as you can lay Odds that have no vig and are much easier to adjust up or down. If it is your second or subsequent point you would want to up the bet on the alternate number, 6 or 8.
• Maybe the 1.41% House advantage on the Pass Line bet goes up as you are avoiding the Natural on the Comeout. I need to crunch the probabilities to find out.
Neutral:
• Craps has the same effect.
• 11 on the Comeout is still a winner.
So far this has been working for me. I will continue the Field Experiment and work on the probabilities calculations.
I welcome your reasoned thoughts to help me develop this strategy for everyone's use. If you take issue with something please state specifically what you disagree with and why and give your recommendations for improvement so that I can refine and improve the Surf and Turf or determine it's flaws.
Thanks!
