Conclusion

[gargoil]

That is your conclusion and you are entitled to it. However I can tell you DI is a skill and just like any skill it is not for everybody. Some people level out early while others with hard work and practice will obtain a higher level.
I am very familiar with Lou's system and have stated many times that it works best when the table is full of random shooters. DI's have a way to influence the toss / dice / outcome. I have told several members of this board in person that in order to be successful you either chart or roll the dice. If you try to do both you will end up negative at the end. I know I will have an earful from some folks on here that will argue with me that this is not true but I have demonstrated it over and over and I am speaking form my own experiences.

Good luck with wherever life's journey takes you.

[heavy]

As long as the math crowd believes that DI is not possible we'll be able to play out game the way we want to relatively heat free. I welcome such comments and hope he publishes his opinion in a scientific journal read by (I know that's now likely) casino security people.

[tonybugs]

KOD- if you saw a person set the dice with 5/5 on top, than throws a hard 10, would you bet with that person? How about 2 hard 10's? Or what if you notice a guy set the dice, and than float them down the table as if they were glued together? Would you bet on him?

Tonybugs

[Kelph]

I will repeat points of what I've said throughout my posts of the past.

I stopped DI not because I didn't think it worked but because I couldn't maintain the level of practice I required to be good.

Everyone will not be at the same DI level but more like climbers at various levels on the side of a mountain. Some will continue higher, some are tired and stay where they are and others fall or retreat down.

All SRRs are not created the same even if they are same number. Nice to know how long the 7 was absent but did you make money on the numbers thrown or were the numbers basically a surprise like random numbers. No 7s is not the same as throwing some specific numbers.

A pretty toss is nice but it's about the number results. Are you making money? Seen too many pretty tosses 7 Out.

Not every shooter is worthy of a bet regardless of them being a DI, RR or CF. I look for some consistency for Do or Don't betting.

Edge is a long term effect and that's where its small yet consistent drain on a player's bankroll is meaningful and that's why casino's use it with probability. Don't ignore it but it is not the primary session killer. In the short term volatility/variance and skewness are more important to the player. Yes, eventually edge will overwhelm volatility and skewness.

Knowing something means nothing if you don't use that knowledge or use it properly and then there's still no guarantee. If you require such a guarantee select a hobby not under the heading of Gambling.

If you don't have and exert discipline you are a feather in the wind.

Don't know if this will mean anything to anyone else but I'll put it out there.

Kelph

[Dylanfreake]

I know exactly what you mean, Kelph.

[mssthis1]

I will do some analysis over billions of hands. Then look for something.

Here's something to think about. My average live play is 2 hours of dice in my hand per week x 100 ave. rolls per hour x 52 weeks in a year x 50 years = 520,000 tosses in a lifetime.

If you find something in a billion roll sample you only have a .00052% chance of it repeating in my lifetime.

Two ways I can think of to beat craps long term are to practice until you have a toss that is not random and then exploit it with proper betting or find a machine/online game with a flaw in the code and exploit that with proper betting.

A system can claim to win 99 times out of a 100. Without hard numbers, for all you know they may win $1.00, 99 times and lose $150.00 1 time, for a net loss.

[Kelph]

What happens in billions of hands is important to the casinos but meaningless to the short term player. Regardless of whether you're a DI, RR or CF you have to play the game (or walk) that unfolds in front of you and most of the time that's not going to be perfect for the way you want to play. Analyze and adapt, get what you can and escape. If all you really want is to play then do so knowing the most likely outcome.

There's no magic bullet to winning it requires smarts, skill and discipline. The only magic bullet I've seen is watching too many players go from being ahead to being a loser. They can use any justification they wish as to the why but the fact is they, not the casino, took them from being a winner to being a loser. They raised that gun and shot them self in the head with a magic bullet that made all the money in their rack go poof and disappear.

Kelph

[heavy]

I disagree, and I know John personally.

[gargoil]

KOD what you fail to understand is the fact that when skill is involved the numbers (math) goes out the door. I have been a software engineer for over 30 years and trust me when I tell you math is my passion. I use it when I see people shaking the dice and throwing them to the other side. However when I have the dice, skill wins every time.

However I agree with you that different people can reach different levels of a particular skill and if you believe you have reached your potential then only you can make that decision.

[Kelph]

KOD,

Before I reply I wonder why you respond using the stock market example which I don't think is a correct comparison. Why don't you make whatever the point you were aiming for within the game of Craps so there's no possible misinterpretation of your intent.

Kelph

[London Shooter]

I'm still not sure where this whole "billions of rolls" fascination is going either. To my mind, if you need to analyse billions of rolls to find something, then the chances are you need to witness billions of live rolls to exploit whatever it is you found.

I'm not holding my breath on this discussion ever coming up with anything.

[heavy]

Ditto.

[heavy]

There are several programs out there already that "prove" DI works if you understand standard deviation and the fact that - at certain levels it pretty much becomes inarguable that influence is at play.

I have no idea why you think you want a billion roll example spun out but you can certainly spin it out through WinCraps and skew the results using the skew function Steen built in for the benefit of folks who want to play with the DI angle.

Seriously, now. We've been down this road now for the last twenty years. I was there for the whole thing. Frankly, I'm tired of listening to the same crap over and over. KOD, you've taken the contrarian position, which is your right. But the work on this has already been done. If you are not convinced - I don't have a problem with that. But if you're going to make blanket statements about it then please post specific documentation substantiating your statements. Seriously. Let's hear it. Preferably in English. But if you're simply going to start these kinds of threads to thump the bee hive to see what buzzes out - don't be surprised if you get stung. In fairly short order I'm going to become quite tired of this entire conversation and we're going down THAT trail once again.

Let me remind all of our readers - since we have some new folks on board who have not had the benefit of a Heavy rant yet - that this forum is not a democracy. It is not a representative republic. It is a benevolent dictatorship. You are welcome to hang out, make friends, post and enjoy our hospitality as long as you follow the terms of service. But the fat boy behind this keyboard is the guy who picks up the tab for this thing, so he gets to make up the rules - sometimes as he goes along. Which means if I read something on the forum that I don't particularly appreciate (like someone slamming my friend John Patrick without justification IMHO) then the post is apt to go the route of "Free Coin" offers for slot machines.

Threads sometimes mysteriously disappear. So do forum members who continue to annoy me.

The Japanese have a saying I'm fond of. "The nail that stands up gets hammered down."

Don't be that nail.

[Team Taylor]

I think the odds of you turning into a nail are getting better

[mssthis1]

I think the odds are alot worse than whats stated

The odds are exactly as stated and grade school math can calculate them. What you aren't figuring into the equation is the casinos bankroll and bankroll managing skill verses your bankroll and bankroll managing skill.

If craps was an even money game with no house advantage, the majority of Randies would still lose money solely due to bad bankroll management.

[gargoil]

KOD what you fail to understand is the fact that when skill is involved the numbers (math) goes out the door. I have been a software engineer for over 30 years and trust me when I tell you math is my passion. I use it when I see people shaking the dice and throwing them to the other side. However when I have the dice, skill wins every time.

However I agree with you that different people can reach different levels of a particular skill and if you believe you have reached your potential then only you can make that decision.

Gargoil, if this is your passion why dont you make a program that sims DI ? Show us that it works ?

I don't need a program that sims DI. I go to the table and do it. I don't need a computer simulator to tell me I am hitting my numbers. I can see that by the presses I have on my bets.

The math guys will tell you the 7 will show 1 in 6 or 16.??% of the time. My DI skills can sway that number to 1 in ?? or ??% of the time so the math for me when I hold the dice is out the door. Case in point my last outing to sin city.

4 8 10 11 4 12 2 4 8 8 6 4 11 12. 4 4 5 2 5 12. 5 5 3 7. 5 11 8 9 6 6 6 5 8 2 6 5 10 8 11. 10 11 4 4 11 6 6 5 8 5 8 5 8 6 5 8 6 3 4 8 11 2 8 5 8 2 5 10 4 8 9 10 4. 8 7

How many sevens you see? better yet how many other repetitive numbers do you see and what does the math tell you about that?

HEAVY no need to pull the pug on this just yet as we are still having a civil conversation and it's good.

[kumar]

KOD, It took a lot of courage to make such a post however if you are a serious player you need 2 tools.The ability to throw and a solid betting strategy. If you dont have these tools the casino is going to have too much of an edge.Once you gain these tools the next step is execution.That can only be acheived thru practice under the guidance of coaches.You have some excellent coaches in Lou and Six Shooter on your betting strategies;why not get a solid dice throwing coach?I am aware of a lot of excellent coaches on this site.

After 15 years of controlled shooting I annually still go thru a tune-up under live conditions;the cost is minor compared to the gains.

What I find is controlled shooters versus random shooters have a small edge and have a better chance of sustaining rolls once they find their sweet spot on a table..I always like my tune-ups to occur under live casino conditions where there is pressure.

A few years back there were 12 of us playing including my dice coach. The whole weekend I shot like a dog and made a lot of money for dont bettors.My dice coach would observe and make suggestions.On the last day of the trip it all came together and I found my sweet spot and I shot for 1 hour and 42 minutes.We cleaned up for over 200K.I am convinced to this day that my success was due to the coaching;off course luck plays a part.

Anyway all these discussions are fun and each one to his own.

[gargoil]

Wow. Asking the W2 to prove it is almost calling someone a liar. You are starting to sound like a certain someone on a different forum. Here is the deal. This forum and the members on here will equip you with the tools and knowledge. What you chose to do with that is up to you.

Here comes the stinger. If you aren't capable to put that to good use it doesn't mean it's all BS. It just means that YOU can't. Is that difficult to comprehend that someone else is doing something you can't? That's not cause to call people liars and ask for proof...

I am done. Good luck in you endeouvers.

[heavy]

Heavy you are nice guy but this stupidity is about the last I can tolerate from this community.

At last, something we can agree on. Happy Thanksgiving, my friend. I hope you enjoy your time with the short bus crew because I fear you are done here. Happy trails.

[heavy]

Whenever we make the decision to delete an individual's membership here on the forum we always check the box that also deletes all of their posts on the forum. If you're ever reading a thread where many people appear to be responding to posts that are not there - you aren't seeing a ghost. There's nothing wrong with your computer. That member - and their posts - are simply no longer with us.

As stated in the forum Terms of Service - a members posts remain their property. Therefore, I want to make sure those posts leave the forum when they do. Seems to me like the right thing to do.