Get in,get up,get gone.
Play minimum and wait for a long roll.
If you stay long enough a hot roll will hap
Pick one play and stay with it.
If the table turns switch to the don'ts.
Which way do you play or is it a guessing game
What to do ?
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
What to do ?
Hit and run.
Get in,get up,get gone.
Play minimum and wait for a long roll.
If you stay long enough a hot roll will hap
Pick one play and stay with it.
If the table turns switch to the don'ts.
Which way do you play or is it a guessing game
Get in,get up,get gone.
Play minimum and wait for a long roll.
If you stay long enough a hot roll will hap
Pick one play and stay with it.
If the table turns switch to the don'ts.
Which way do you play or is it a guessing game
Rock On
M & M
M & M
Re: What to do ?
I guess my answer would be "all of the above." It depends largely on what my intent was when I walked up to the table (as regards a method of play) and what I saw the table giving up once I got there (which requires observing roll results for awhile).
I think those two items are among the first things you should take into consideration before actually placing more than (very) minimal action into play.
How do I WANT to play today?
What is the table TELLING me to play today?
On some occasions I'll wait until I find a table that answers both questions the same way. On other occasions I'll just jump in and try to beat the table into submission by playing the way I want to - regardless (this rarely works). On still other occasions I'll observe what's happening at the table, abandon my original plan and follow the trend at the table.
I prefer not to bet the Pass Line at all unless I am the shooter, a known DI is the shooter, or the shooter has already made one Pass and the indications are a hand is developing.
However, I'll bet the Don't Pass on almost anyone. The exception is on the shooter who I've observed toss multiple naturals on the Come Out on previous hands. I'm much more likely to Lay Against a number on this shooter.
From there . . . it all depends.
I think those two items are among the first things you should take into consideration before actually placing more than (very) minimal action into play.
How do I WANT to play today?
What is the table TELLING me to play today?
On some occasions I'll wait until I find a table that answers both questions the same way. On other occasions I'll just jump in and try to beat the table into submission by playing the way I want to - regardless (this rarely works). On still other occasions I'll observe what's happening at the table, abandon my original plan and follow the trend at the table.
I prefer not to bet the Pass Line at all unless I am the shooter, a known DI is the shooter, or the shooter has already made one Pass and the indications are a hand is developing.
However, I'll bet the Don't Pass on almost anyone. The exception is on the shooter who I've observed toss multiple naturals on the Come Out on previous hands. I'm much more likely to Lay Against a number on this shooter.
From there . . . it all depends.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: What to do ?
I agree with Heavy. The only thing that I don't believe is that it's a guessing game. There's a treasure trove of information available to you every time you play. It's up to you to analyze it and pick a winning betting strategy.
In the past I used to bet the same no matter what and that cost me a lot of money. Today, I'll buy in and watch for a while as long as I don't have to make a bet to assure I'll get the dice. There's many days where I'll play everything from don't bets up to $405 across in the same session, depending on what I feel the table is providing.
In the past I used to bet the same no matter what and that cost me a lot of money. Today, I'll buy in and watch for a while as long as I don't have to make a bet to assure I'll get the dice. There's many days where I'll play everything from don't bets up to $405 across in the same session, depending on what I feel the table is providing.
Re: What to do ?
Yep. Getting tunnel vision when it comes to betting strategies will bite you on the ass.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: What to do ?
Greetings Michael,
Messthis 1, I hope when you play $405 across, you bought
in for 20 units, or else you are going to have a long,long,long drive home.
Translation : Getting tunnel vision when it comes to betting strategies will bite you on your [culo].
Messthis 1, I hope when you play $405 across, you bought
in for 20 units, or else you are going to have a long,long,long drive home.
Translation : Getting tunnel vision when it comes to betting strategies will bite you on your [culo].
Re: What to do ?
I should have clarified that I don't bet that on Randies, only on myself on the low limit tables here around home.
I realize everyone's bankroll situation is unique, but I wouldn't even consider playing with a 20 unit bankroll unless you're talking 1 unit = a black chip. I firmly believe a limited bankroll places a larger disadvantage on a persons craps game than the HA does.
I realize everyone's bankroll situation is unique, but I wouldn't even consider playing with a 20 unit bankroll unless you're talking 1 unit = a black chip. I firmly believe a limited bankroll places a larger disadvantage on a persons craps game than the HA does.
Re: What to do ?
Greetings Messthis1,
If you are betting $405 dollars across, that's one unit, times 20.
When you start betting $405 dollars across YOU are now betting with the big boys/girls.
Good luck at the tables. Jaime.
If you are betting $405 dollars across, that's one unit, times 20.
When you start betting $405 dollars across YOU are now betting with the big boys/girls.
Good luck at the tables. Jaime.
Re: What to do ?
I agree that there is a treasure trove of info if you know what your seeing and how to use it. I sort of agree with Heavy who is speaking about himself. What I'm unsure about is the original question from Michael. Was that in regards to his own play or to play that included betting on other shooters?
Kelph
Kelph
Re: What to do ?
Good questions. You need to have a game plan for yourself and other shooters before you enter the casino. But as others have said you need to be able to see what is happening at the table and adjust your playing. A few years ago I moved closer to the casinos in Shreveport LA so I have been going weekly for about 4-5 hours of play before returning home. I have been several weeks in a row and never seen anyone have more than a 15 roll hand so don't count on someone to have a big hand when you are playing. But usually you will see several mid-roll hands (12-15) and you need a betting strategy to take advantage of these hands.
What I see most of the time is shooters either making their point or going out within 5-6 rolls, so one strategy I frequently use is turning my bets off after 5-6 rolls and waiting for a decision. Its frustrating when they roll 10 more times but most of time it saves me money.
What I see most of the time is shooters either making their point or going out within 5-6 rolls, so one strategy I frequently use is turning my bets off after 5-6 rolls and waiting for a decision. Its frustrating when they roll 10 more times but most of time it saves me money.
Re: What to do ?
Michael,
I'm gathering, consolidating and editing a bunch of info contained in saved articles and such from over the years that may lend some perspective to your questions. It will be a little long but I'll try to post it this weekend. I think it will be helpful to anyone betting on other unknown shooters.
Kelph
I'm gathering, consolidating and editing a bunch of info contained in saved articles and such from over the years that may lend some perspective to your questions. It will be a little long but I'll try to post it this weekend. I think it will be helpful to anyone betting on other unknown shooters.
Kelph
Re: What to do ?
Michael,
I personally bet on randies but I used my selection method knowing full well the possible results so there is never a need for me to complain. There is a wealth of posts here and other sites saying to avoid betting randies but apparently many DIs find that as hard to do as to quit smoking. While I obviously am not one to agree with never betting randies I do think it helpful to put basic info out there so it's obvious what the realistic possibilities are and not have your randie bets overstay their welcome on the felt. Some pretty basic stuff is included as a foundation.
As much as I would like to take credit for all the info and figures below they are a compilation of articles and such that I've read and saved over the years and just reworked as to not infringe anyone’s rights. I’ve added some thoughts and comments along the way. You and some other readers may find this useful and if so it was worth my effort.
Casinos and players think very much in terms of edge.
Traditional analyses of casino and other gambling propositions begin and end by evaluating and comparing the expected value of various alternatives. This is usually expressed as "edge" or "expectation," the average fraction of the amount wagered that players win or lose on the decision.
The expectation associated with a bet or its percentage forms the house advantage or edge that combines probability with payout and is often used to gauge the luck needed to beat the casinos.
Expected Value is meaningful only as a long-term phenomenon. Not only does it usually represent a small fraction of each transaction, which requires many decisions to accumulate into some real money, but it gets submerged in the won or lost amounts of individual decisions.
Edge exerts a negative influence on a player’s fortunes. The edge increases your chance of losing and reduces your chance of winning any specific amount. But edge isn’t the principal or sole determinant and other parameters in addition to edge may strongly influence a player’s short-term results.
Volatility characterizes the up and down swings likely to be encountered during the course of gambling action. It also affords a means of quantifying the probability of deviating from the expected value. Statisticians traditionally measure volatility by the variance or by its more useful square root, the standard deviation. It’s useful for predicting the size but not the direction of the swings.
In the course of the action, the cumulative expectation increases linearly with the number of decisions while the overall standard deviation rises with the square root of this quantity. This is the effect that accounts for volatility dominating performance over the short haul, while edge becomes overriding in the long term.
Casino management appears to be only vaguely aware of the significance of volatility. Normally, ignoring this factor doesn’t hurt them because casinos book enough bets over a relatively short range of values during most accounting periods that they can safely ignore volatility and project their performance using edge alone.
Players on the other hand are seriously impacted by the effects of volatility during normal sessions much more so than by edge. Short term volatility swamps edge on changes in fortune, making it possible to win big or to lose a great deal more than the erosive action of the edge suggests.
Edge always carries cash away from players. The associated losses therefore accumulate steadily, in strict proportion to numbers of rounds. Volatility moves money toward as well as away from bettors. The effect is somewhat self-canceling so consequent expected final ranges expand at a rate less than proportional to numbers of rounds. Both are similarly influenced by bet amounts. Owing to these factors, volatility overwhelms edge initially. However, the impact of the latter grows faster, so the dominance eventually reverses.
Again the higher rate at which edge increases relative to volatility explains why casinos depend on long-term averages while players focus their hopes on the short run. For one spin, the effect of volatility is much greater than that of edge. In the heat of the action, you don’t notice the effect of the edge on your bankroll. This is because the volatility of the game overwhelms the edge in the short run.
How long can you play before what you lose on edge eclipses what you may win on volatility? The answer depends on the characteristics of particular bets and the confidence you want that you can still win after some number of coups.
Theoretical number of trials before the loss due to edge exceeds one standard deviation, such that the chance of earning a profit is 16 percent or less.
[tr]
[td][center]Bet[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Edge..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Payoff..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Rounds..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 4 or 10..[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.0667[center][/td]
[td][center]9 to 5[/center][/td]
[td][center]393[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 5 or 9..[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.0400[center][/td]
[td][center]7 to 5[/center][/td]
[td][center]865[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 6 or 8..[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.0151[center][/td]
[td][center]7 to 6[/center][/td]
[td][center]5,071[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Pass No Odds..[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.0141[center][/td]
[td][center]1 to 1[/center][/td]
[td][center]5,001[/center][/td]
[/tr]
Now the second component of volatility…….."skewness."
Skewness incorporates probability and payoff. Skewness, or skew, implies symmetrical gains and losses and this factor quantifies the directional bias of the bankroll shifts. Negative skew indicates lots of minor wins offset by rare major disappointments while a positive skew suggests many small setbacks and occasional rich returns. Skewness puts a number on the trade-off between a good chance at a small profit and a low probability of a big score.
Here, magnitude increases as chances shrink and payoffs grow. Bets which win frequently but generate small payoffs are negatively skewed (minus values). And, the easier it is to grab lower sums, the more negative. Conversely, bets which rarely hit but pay well are positively skewed (plus values). However skewness can't tell you how the next round will evolve. Skewness helps by providing a rational basis for deciding which games to play and bets to make, to induce the types of sessions most apt to meet your personal preferences, constraints, and goals.
Skewness explains why so many bettors ignore all the conventional hoopla about edge and aren't terribly interested in volatility either. The former because edge doesn't have an evident impact on the results typical recreational players experience during sessions of casino visits or their lifetime gambling careers. The latter because few players have the discipline to quit when they lose what they thought was sensible before they left home or win enough to gain bragging rights when they head back.
Craps bets could be more rationally compared with each other by treating every throw as a trial that wins, loses, or pushes. On this basis, the accompanying table shows expected or average loss due to edge, bankroll swing, and skewness per throw of the dice for every dollar at risk on some representative Place bets. The multi-number bets assume one "unit" at risk on each box (e.g., $5 each on four and 10, $5 each on five and nine, and $6 each on six and eight).
Characteristics of various bets on a trial-by-trial basis, per dollar at risk
[tr]
[td][center]Bet[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Expected Loss..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Average BR..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Skewness..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]Bet[/center][/td]
[td][center]To Edge[/center][/td]
[td][center]Fluctuation[/center][/td]
[td][center]Skewness[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 4 or 10..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0167[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.611[/center][/td]
[td][center]+1.18[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 5 or 9..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0111[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.620[/center][/td]
[td][center]+0.63[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 6 or 8..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0046[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.596[/center][/td]
[td][center]+0.28[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 4 & 10..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0167[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.549[/center][/td]
[td][center]+0.18[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 5 & 9..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0111[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.525[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.56[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 6 & 8..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0046[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.511[/center][/td]
[td][center]-0.81[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 4, 5 & 6..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0104[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.491[/center][/td]
[td][center]-1.04[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Place 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 10..[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.0104[/center][/td]
[td][center]$0.451[/center][/td]
[td][center]-1.65[/center][/td]
[/tr]
What on average can one expect from a randie? Well………..
A seven appears an average of once every six trials when two dice are thrown. Toss the dice six million times and you’ll be within a reasonable margin of error of a million sevens. Toss the dice six times and your chances are 33.5 percent of none, 40.2 percent of one, 20.1 percent of two, 5.4 percent of three, and under one percent each of four through six. Again, one – the average – is most likely, but it’s not much more probable than none.
The average length of a player’s Craps hand in terms of the number of rolls is about 8.526.
The expected number of Pass Line decisions per seven out is approximately 2.5255.
There are about 3.376 rolls per Line decision on average.
45% of Pass Line wins occur during the CO roll.
The cumulative probability for a shooter to make six Passes in a row:
1 Pass.. 40.61%.
2 Passes.. 16.49%.
3 Passes.. 6.70%.
4 Passes.. 2.72%.
5 Passes.. 1.10%.
6 Passes.. .45%.
The cumulative probability for seeing six winning Don’t passes in a row:
1 Don’t.. 59.39%.
2 Don’ts.. 35.28%.
3 Don’ts.. 20.95%.
4 Don’ts.. 12.44%.
5 Don’ts.. 7.39%.
6 Don’ts.. 4.39%.
83.33% of shooters will have rolls between 0 to 4 rolls.
33.49% of those shooters will have rolls of 5 or greater.
13.46% of those shooters will have 10 rolls or greater.
5.41% of those shooters will have 15 rolls or greater.
2.17% of those shooters will have 20 rolls or greater.
Or we could look at the number of shooters for a given number of rolls.
10 shooters will give you a 19.73% probability of 20 rolls & 3.46% probability of 30 rolls.
20 shooters a 35.57% probability of 20 rolls & 6.79% probability of 30 rolls.
30 shooters a 48.28% probability of 20 rolls & 10.01% probability of 30 rolls.
40 shooters a 58.48% probability of 20 rolls & 13.12% probability of 30 rolls.
50 shooters a 66.67% probability of 20 rolls & 16.12% probability of 30 rolls.
60 shooters a 73.25% probability of 20 rolls & 19.02% probability of 30 rolls.
These averages below reveal the extent to which short rolls are the rule rather than the exception. It gives the chance of throwing multiple intervening numbers before a decision is made on a point. Shooters can be expected not to hit any numbers after establishing a point and before passing or missing out in 33.8 percent of all cases. And their chance of hitting 10 numbers in a round is a mere 0.6 percent or six out of 1,000.
[tr]
[td][center]..Intervening..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Probability..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]..Numbers..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..(%)..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]0[/center][/td]
[td][center]33.80[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[td][center]22.40[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]2[/center][/td]
[td][center]14.90[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]3[/center][/td]
[td][center]9.60[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]4[/center][/td]
[td][center]6.50[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]5[/center][/td]
[td][center]4.20[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]6[/center][/td]
[td][center]2.80[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]7[/center][/td]
[td][center]1.90[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]8[/center][/td]
[td][center]1.20[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]9[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.80[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]10[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.60[/center][/td]
[/tr]
I believe players are more interested in knowing specifically how many box numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) rather than craps and 11s they should expect while the shooter is trying for the point. The average is 1.97.
The accompanying chart is based on a computer simulation of a million shooters. It shows the chances of zero, one, or more hits on each number while a particular player is holding the dice, assuming bets work during come-out rolls after passes. Chances of more hits than those shown are under a tenth of a percent.
Keep in mind that we are speaking about randies here and not DIs who may have various levels of skill in repeating certain numbers above and beyond those listed in the chart.
[tr]
[td][center]..Hits..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..4 or 10..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..5 or 9..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..6 or 8..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]0[/center][/td]
[td][center]66.6%[/center][/td]
[td][center]60.0%[/center][/td]
[td][center]54.5%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[td][center]22.2%[/center][/td]
[td][center]24.0%[/center][/td]
[td][center]24.8%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]2[/center][/td]
[td][center]7.4%[/center][/td]
[td][center]9.6%[/center][/td]
[td][center]11.2%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]3[/center][/td]
[td][center]2.5%[/center][/td]
[td][center]3.8%[/center][/td]
[td][center]5.1%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]4[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.8%[/center][/td]
[td][center]1.5%[/center][/td]
[td][center]2.3%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]5[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.3%[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.6%[/center][/td]
[td][center]1.1%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]6[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.1%[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.2%[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.5%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]7[/center][/td]
[td][center]-[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.1%[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.2%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]8[/center][/td]
[td][center]-[/center][/td]
[td][center]-[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.1%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
Note that regardless of number, the most likely result is no hits -- from two thirds of the time on four or ten to somewhat over half for six or eight.
But what about catching that hoped for run or streak of box numbers after spending a given amount of time at the table?
If you play craps for six hours with moderately-paced action, you'll experience roughly 360 throws. What's the chance that within this time span, you'll encounter at least one streak of 10 or more successive box numbers? It turns out to be about 49 percent, meaning that you can expect it to happen in almost half of all six-hour sessions you play. An unbroken run of 15 or more box numbers has a probability exceeding 8 percent, such that it can be expected in eight or nine out of every hundred six-hour stretches.
But, if you allocate six hours for craps and tap out prematurely, your shot at encountering a long series of successive box numbers drops dramatically. The effect is shown in the accompanying list for runs equal to or greater than 10 and 15 hits in a row.
Here’s a chart showing chances of runs of at least 10 and 15 successive box numbers in different session lengths.
[tr]
[td][center]..Hrs per session..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Chances of 10>..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Chances of 15>[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[td][center]..@ 60 rolls per hr..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..box # run..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..box # run..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[td][center]9%[/center][/td]
[td][center]1%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]2[/center][/td]
[td][center]19%[/center][/td]
[td][center]3%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]3[/center][/td]
[td][center]28%[/center][/td]
[td][center]4%[/center][center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]4[/center][/td]
[td][center]36%[/center][/td]
[td][center]6%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]5[/center][/td]
[td][center]43%[/center][/td]
[td][center]7%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]6[/center][/td]
[td][center]49%[/center][/td]
[td][center]8%[/center][/td]
[/tr]
Don't think that after a marathon cold session the chance of encountering a streak of box numbers is due because of playing time. Never assume you're in the middle of a long-awaited hall of fame run.
The chart below should keep all this hope in averages grounded. The chart shows the chance that on roll Nth (or by roll N) the craps game ends in a decision or the chance that no decision has been reached and the odds of that possibility.
Example -1/3 chance of a decision (33.33%) on come out roll.
Roll 8 – 2.57% chance of a decision on this roll, 93.33% chance of a decision being made by this roll, 6.67% chance that there is still no decision reached or 1 in 15.
[tr]
[td][center]..Roll..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Ends On This Roll..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Ends By This Roll..[/center][/td]
[td][center]..Still No Decision..[/center][/td]
[td][center]…..1 in…..[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]0[/center][/td]
[td][center]0[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0[/center][/td]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]1[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.333333333[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.333333333[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.666666667[/center][/td]
[td][center]1.50[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]2[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.188271605[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.521604938[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.478395062[/center][/td]
[td][center]2.09[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]3[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.134773663[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.656378601[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.343621399[/center][/td]
[td][center]2.91[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]4[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.096567311[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.752945911[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.247054089[/center][/td]
[td][center]4.05[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]5[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.0692571[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.822203011[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.177796989[/center][/td]
[td][center]5.62[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]6[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.049717715[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.871920727[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.128079273[/center][/td]
[td][center]7.81[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]7[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.035725128[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.907645855[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.092354145[/center][/td]
[td][center]10.83[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]8[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.025695361[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.933341216[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.066658784[/center][/td]
[td][center]15.00[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]9[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.018499325[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.95184054[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.04815946[/center][/td]
[td][center]20.76[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]10[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.013331487[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.965172027[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.034827973[/center][/td]
[td][center]28.71[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]11[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.009616645[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.974788673[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.025211327[/center][/td]
[td][center]39.66[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]12[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.006943702[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.981732374[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.018267626[/center][/td]
[td][center]54.74[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]13[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.005018575[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.98675095[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.01324905[/center][/td]
[td][center]75.48[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]14[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.003630703[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.990381653[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.009618347[/center][/td]
[td][center]103.97[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]15[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.002629179[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.993010832[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.006989168[/center][/td]
[td][center]143.08[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]16[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.001905753[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.994916585[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.005083415[/center][/td]
[td][center]196.72[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]17[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.001382697[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.996299282[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.003700718[/center][/td]
[td][center]270.22[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]18[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.001004149[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.997303432[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.002696568[/center][/td]
[td][center]370.84[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]19[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.00072992[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.998033354[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.001966646[/center][/td]
[td][center]508.48[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]20[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000531076[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.99856443[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.00143557[/center][/td]
[td][center]696.59[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]21[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000386754[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.998951184[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.001048816[/center][/td]
[td][center]953.46[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]22[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000281906[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.99923309[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.00076691[/center][/td]
[td][center]1,303.93[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]23[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000205665[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.999438755[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000561245[/center][/td]
[td][center]1,781.75[/center][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][center]24[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.000150175[/ center][/td]
[td][center]0.99958893[/center][/td]
[td][center]0.00041107[/center][/td]
[td][center]2,432.67[/center][/td]
[/tr]
OK, the average randie hand is short.
Gamblers faring poorly sometimes turn to the thought or the hope that the more rounds they lose, the more they're due for a win. This idea gets an aura of authenticity with a technical name: the law of the maturity of chances. The principle is that whatever the probability of an event, the likelihood it'll occur repeatedly shrinks as the run stretches. For instance, if the chance of one loss is 60 percent, two in a row come in at 36 percent, three at 21.6 percent, and so on.
The Maturity Of Chances and Gamblers Fallacy. This is the most prevalent and yet the most fallacious of the systems. It is based on the popular misconception of "the law of averages" combined with the belief that "things even up in the long run." The player who depends on the maturity of the chances doesn't reduce his expectancy of winning, but neither does he increase it. He just wastes a lot of time keeping records.
More than a few players believe that if they're losing and continue to play, the law of averages will eventually turn the situation around. They assume that when random tests are run repeatedly, results get closer and closer to what's predicted by multiplying theoretical probability times the number of trials.
Mathematicians call this concept the "Empirical Law of Averages." "Empirical" meaning "derived from experiment or observation." But in fact it's not a mathematical or physical law and it isn't corroborated by valid experiments or observations. It's a popular mis-rendering of something else that does meet rigorous scrutiny.
That something else is a form of the "Law of Large Numbers." This verifiable principle casts the effect in the realm of percentages, not numbers, of events. Percentages being frequencies and probabilities instances of success divided by numbers of trials. The Law of Large Numbers says that the chance of a big difference between the observed frequency and the actual probability tends to decrease as the number of trials increases.
The statistical “law of large numbers” tells the analysts the degree of confidence in anticipating the collective outcomes of many operations whose individual probabilities are known. Anarchy reigns however for the combined results of relatively few transactions. Which is why well managed casinos can foresee how they’ll do over reasonable accounting periods while surprise awaits particular players during specific forays into the wonderful world of wagering. Players rarely get in enough action for the laws of large numbers to apply and are always in the short term realm of small numbers.
Some well know authors such as Frank Barstow with his theory of diminishing probability and R.D. Ellison supporting Barstow’s idea have added credence to this erroneous concept. In a nutshell Barstow states “as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent”.
The reversal will eventually show but nothing is making it imminent and nothing progressively so but it’s a nice thought for the player. My experience at the tables and my layman’s attempt at trying to understand the math behind everything says it is a wistful fallacy that cannot be depended upon to produce necessary desired results within the player’s time constraint. Oh it can at times but just enough so you really get burned at some point.
While I find all this info interesting and useful in a very general way I think it quite important to remember that the provided averages and probabilities are distilled from a very large long term sampling. Even so perhaps this is still helpful info to players but should not be taken as gospel in the short term.
In general the ultimate error in trusting the law of averages is in believing there’s an underlying mechanism that maintains the equilibrium it represents.
So if I were a DI with a definable real skill who for some unknown reason also had a penchant for betting on randies what would I take away from all this?
First and foremost is what Heavy said about watching and analyzing the game in front of you. There is not one correct way to play every table and many players try to overlay their favorite or preferred method on top of whatever is occurring on the table. Play the game unfolding in front of you and not some theoretical mental one from your comfort zone or perfect probability. Things are happening and others are not in this specific game so adjust accordingly. Could it change? Of course but that’s true every time you make a bet for whatever reason. So at least have some basis for the bets you do make on randies if you can’t resist betting. If the game you’re in can’t be analyzed why are you even contemplating placing a bet on a randie?
Obviously one should not bet every randie shooter and have some method for selecting those that potentially could make us money. It is not my intention to discuss various selection methods but one of the most basic, though no magic solution, is the 5 Count. If you can’t keep your money off the felt when randies shoot and have no sensible filter for selection this will at least reduce the randies you bet on, avoid the quick 7 Outs, reduce losses and buy you more time at the table to perhaps catch one of those rare longer hands. This is merely a tool that could be helpful when properly utilized but still no guarantee for winning. Frankly if one has to bet on every randie I have little hope for a positive outcome except in those very rare brushes with unbelievable luck.
Assuming whatever selection method does produce randie shooters capable of tossing numbers we should realize it is far more likely to be a shorter hand than those rare monster rolls we all imagine inside our heads. We all intellectually know this, have heard this, but I hope all the various charts, averages, and probabilities above make it very gut real. Get in and off the felt quickly.
Build your potential win off the most likely using your observations and analysis with what you know of variance and skewness, number appearance, and hand lengths. Players willing to accept smaller carefully chosen randie shooter wins from limited time risked bets on the felt will add a little to their rack rather than draining from it. If you’re unable to do that then just lay off the randies completely and play to your DI advantage.
To win, especially on randies, one needs patience and discipline. To me one of the greatest negatives discipline has to keep in check is greed which can be as little as wanting one more hit up to wanting to ride it to the moon. I’ve seen lots of players who were winners take themselves to losers by their own choice. First it’s to win more, then to win back the portion of the profit they lost, then to not leave having just broke even after so much playing time, to trying to win back the lost portion of their buy-in, to watching their last bet go down and wondering why they didn’t stop while ahead and telling themselves next time it will be different. But it won’t be because they're not in control. Winning isn’t easy but it’s not that hard, just hard to stay a winner especially for the vacation recreational player.
Michael, I think all the answers to your original post questions are in this response. You’ll have to dig them out because I don’t believe there are any simple fit all answers. Craps is a wonderful game and there is no denying the math but within that math there is wiggle room if you don’t live and die by the math. For me beyond the math of Craps is the Art of Craps. Some interpret that to mean denying the math which is incorrect on their part. It means ignoring the math because we are experiencing variance and volatility and skewness. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong but always try to balance risk and benefit.
This is all general info that should float in your mind to help with those adaptive decisions rather than specifics to be memorized. Hope this was helpful.
PS - What a monumental pain in the butt to code for those tables!
Kelph
I personally bet on randies but I used my selection method knowing full well the possible results so there is never a need for me to complain. There is a wealth of posts here and other sites saying to avoid betting randies but apparently many DIs find that as hard to do as to quit smoking. While I obviously am not one to agree with never betting randies I do think it helpful to put basic info out there so it's obvious what the realistic possibilities are and not have your randie bets overstay their welcome on the felt. Some pretty basic stuff is included as a foundation.
As much as I would like to take credit for all the info and figures below they are a compilation of articles and such that I've read and saved over the years and just reworked as to not infringe anyone’s rights. I’ve added some thoughts and comments along the way. You and some other readers may find this useful and if so it was worth my effort.
Casinos and players think very much in terms of edge.
Traditional analyses of casino and other gambling propositions begin and end by evaluating and comparing the expected value of various alternatives. This is usually expressed as "edge" or "expectation," the average fraction of the amount wagered that players win or lose on the decision.
The expectation associated with a bet or its percentage forms the house advantage or edge that combines probability with payout and is often used to gauge the luck needed to beat the casinos.
Expected Value is meaningful only as a long-term phenomenon. Not only does it usually represent a small fraction of each transaction, which requires many decisions to accumulate into some real money, but it gets submerged in the won or lost amounts of individual decisions.
Edge exerts a negative influence on a player’s fortunes. The edge increases your chance of losing and reduces your chance of winning any specific amount. But edge isn’t the principal or sole determinant and other parameters in addition to edge may strongly influence a player’s short-term results.
Volatility characterizes the up and down swings likely to be encountered during the course of gambling action. It also affords a means of quantifying the probability of deviating from the expected value. Statisticians traditionally measure volatility by the variance or by its more useful square root, the standard deviation. It’s useful for predicting the size but not the direction of the swings.
In the course of the action, the cumulative expectation increases linearly with the number of decisions while the overall standard deviation rises with the square root of this quantity. This is the effect that accounts for volatility dominating performance over the short haul, while edge becomes overriding in the long term.
Casino management appears to be only vaguely aware of the significance of volatility. Normally, ignoring this factor doesn’t hurt them because casinos book enough bets over a relatively short range of values during most accounting periods that they can safely ignore volatility and project their performance using edge alone.
Players on the other hand are seriously impacted by the effects of volatility during normal sessions much more so than by edge. Short term volatility swamps edge on changes in fortune, making it possible to win big or to lose a great deal more than the erosive action of the edge suggests.
Edge always carries cash away from players. The associated losses therefore accumulate steadily, in strict proportion to numbers of rounds. Volatility moves money toward as well as away from bettors. The effect is somewhat self-canceling so consequent expected final ranges expand at a rate less than proportional to numbers of rounds. Both are similarly influenced by bet amounts. Owing to these factors, volatility overwhelms edge initially. However, the impact of the latter grows faster, so the dominance eventually reverses.
Again the higher rate at which edge increases relative to volatility explains why casinos depend on long-term averages while players focus their hopes on the short run. For one spin, the effect of volatility is much greater than that of edge. In the heat of the action, you don’t notice the effect of the edge on your bankroll. This is because the volatility of the game overwhelms the edge in the short run.
How long can you play before what you lose on edge eclipses what you may win on volatility? The answer depends on the characteristics of particular bets and the confidence you want that you can still win after some number of coups.
Theoretical number of trials before the loss due to edge exceeds one standard deviation, such that the chance of earning a profit is 16 percent or less.
Skewness incorporates probability and payoff. Skewness, or skew, implies symmetrical gains and losses and this factor quantifies the directional bias of the bankroll shifts. Negative skew indicates lots of minor wins offset by rare major disappointments while a positive skew suggests many small setbacks and occasional rich returns. Skewness puts a number on the trade-off between a good chance at a small profit and a low probability of a big score.
Here, magnitude increases as chances shrink and payoffs grow. Bets which win frequently but generate small payoffs are negatively skewed (minus values). And, the easier it is to grab lower sums, the more negative. Conversely, bets which rarely hit but pay well are positively skewed (plus values). However skewness can't tell you how the next round will evolve. Skewness helps by providing a rational basis for deciding which games to play and bets to make, to induce the types of sessions most apt to meet your personal preferences, constraints, and goals.
Skewness explains why so many bettors ignore all the conventional hoopla about edge and aren't terribly interested in volatility either. The former because edge doesn't have an evident impact on the results typical recreational players experience during sessions of casino visits or their lifetime gambling careers. The latter because few players have the discipline to quit when they lose what they thought was sensible before they left home or win enough to gain bragging rights when they head back.
Craps bets could be more rationally compared with each other by treating every throw as a trial that wins, loses, or pushes. On this basis, the accompanying table shows expected or average loss due to edge, bankroll swing, and skewness per throw of the dice for every dollar at risk on some representative Place bets. The multi-number bets assume one "unit" at risk on each box (e.g., $5 each on four and 10, $5 each on five and nine, and $6 each on six and eight).
Characteristics of various bets on a trial-by-trial basis, per dollar at risk
A seven appears an average of once every six trials when two dice are thrown. Toss the dice six million times and you’ll be within a reasonable margin of error of a million sevens. Toss the dice six times and your chances are 33.5 percent of none, 40.2 percent of one, 20.1 percent of two, 5.4 percent of three, and under one percent each of four through six. Again, one – the average – is most likely, but it’s not much more probable than none.
The average length of a player’s Craps hand in terms of the number of rolls is about 8.526.
The expected number of Pass Line decisions per seven out is approximately 2.5255.
There are about 3.376 rolls per Line decision on average.
45% of Pass Line wins occur during the CO roll.
The cumulative probability for a shooter to make six Passes in a row:
1 Pass.. 40.61%.
2 Passes.. 16.49%.
3 Passes.. 6.70%.
4 Passes.. 2.72%.
5 Passes.. 1.10%.
6 Passes.. .45%.
The cumulative probability for seeing six winning Don’t passes in a row:
1 Don’t.. 59.39%.
2 Don’ts.. 35.28%.
3 Don’ts.. 20.95%.
4 Don’ts.. 12.44%.
5 Don’ts.. 7.39%.
6 Don’ts.. 4.39%.
83.33% of shooters will have rolls between 0 to 4 rolls.
33.49% of those shooters will have rolls of 5 or greater.
13.46% of those shooters will have 10 rolls or greater.
5.41% of those shooters will have 15 rolls or greater.
2.17% of those shooters will have 20 rolls or greater.
Or we could look at the number of shooters for a given number of rolls.
10 shooters will give you a 19.73% probability of 20 rolls & 3.46% probability of 30 rolls.
20 shooters a 35.57% probability of 20 rolls & 6.79% probability of 30 rolls.
30 shooters a 48.28% probability of 20 rolls & 10.01% probability of 30 rolls.
40 shooters a 58.48% probability of 20 rolls & 13.12% probability of 30 rolls.
50 shooters a 66.67% probability of 20 rolls & 16.12% probability of 30 rolls.
60 shooters a 73.25% probability of 20 rolls & 19.02% probability of 30 rolls.
These averages below reveal the extent to which short rolls are the rule rather than the exception. It gives the chance of throwing multiple intervening numbers before a decision is made on a point. Shooters can be expected not to hit any numbers after establishing a point and before passing or missing out in 33.8 percent of all cases. And their chance of hitting 10 numbers in a round is a mere 0.6 percent or six out of 1,000.
The accompanying chart is based on a computer simulation of a million shooters. It shows the chances of zero, one, or more hits on each number while a particular player is holding the dice, assuming bets work during come-out rolls after passes. Chances of more hits than those shown are under a tenth of a percent.
Keep in mind that we are speaking about randies here and not DIs who may have various levels of skill in repeating certain numbers above and beyond those listed in the chart.
But what about catching that hoped for run or streak of box numbers after spending a given amount of time at the table?
If you play craps for six hours with moderately-paced action, you'll experience roughly 360 throws. What's the chance that within this time span, you'll encounter at least one streak of 10 or more successive box numbers? It turns out to be about 49 percent, meaning that you can expect it to happen in almost half of all six-hour sessions you play. An unbroken run of 15 or more box numbers has a probability exceeding 8 percent, such that it can be expected in eight or nine out of every hundred six-hour stretches.
But, if you allocate six hours for craps and tap out prematurely, your shot at encountering a long series of successive box numbers drops dramatically. The effect is shown in the accompanying list for runs equal to or greater than 10 and 15 hits in a row.
Here’s a chart showing chances of runs of at least 10 and 15 successive box numbers in different session lengths.
The chart below should keep all this hope in averages grounded. The chart shows the chance that on roll Nth (or by roll N) the craps game ends in a decision or the chance that no decision has been reached and the odds of that possibility.
Example -1/3 chance of a decision (33.33%) on come out roll.
Roll 8 – 2.57% chance of a decision on this roll, 93.33% chance of a decision being made by this roll, 6.67% chance that there is still no decision reached or 1 in 15.
Gamblers faring poorly sometimes turn to the thought or the hope that the more rounds they lose, the more they're due for a win. This idea gets an aura of authenticity with a technical name: the law of the maturity of chances. The principle is that whatever the probability of an event, the likelihood it'll occur repeatedly shrinks as the run stretches. For instance, if the chance of one loss is 60 percent, two in a row come in at 36 percent, three at 21.6 percent, and so on.
The Maturity Of Chances and Gamblers Fallacy. This is the most prevalent and yet the most fallacious of the systems. It is based on the popular misconception of "the law of averages" combined with the belief that "things even up in the long run." The player who depends on the maturity of the chances doesn't reduce his expectancy of winning, but neither does he increase it. He just wastes a lot of time keeping records.
More than a few players believe that if they're losing and continue to play, the law of averages will eventually turn the situation around. They assume that when random tests are run repeatedly, results get closer and closer to what's predicted by multiplying theoretical probability times the number of trials.
Mathematicians call this concept the "Empirical Law of Averages." "Empirical" meaning "derived from experiment or observation." But in fact it's not a mathematical or physical law and it isn't corroborated by valid experiments or observations. It's a popular mis-rendering of something else that does meet rigorous scrutiny.
That something else is a form of the "Law of Large Numbers." This verifiable principle casts the effect in the realm of percentages, not numbers, of events. Percentages being frequencies and probabilities instances of success divided by numbers of trials. The Law of Large Numbers says that the chance of a big difference between the observed frequency and the actual probability tends to decrease as the number of trials increases.
The statistical “law of large numbers” tells the analysts the degree of confidence in anticipating the collective outcomes of many operations whose individual probabilities are known. Anarchy reigns however for the combined results of relatively few transactions. Which is why well managed casinos can foresee how they’ll do over reasonable accounting periods while surprise awaits particular players during specific forays into the wonderful world of wagering. Players rarely get in enough action for the laws of large numbers to apply and are always in the short term realm of small numbers.
Some well know authors such as Frank Barstow with his theory of diminishing probability and R.D. Ellison supporting Barstow’s idea have added credence to this erroneous concept. In a nutshell Barstow states “as any repeated pattern of chance events continues, its reversal becomes progressively imminent”.
The reversal will eventually show but nothing is making it imminent and nothing progressively so but it’s a nice thought for the player. My experience at the tables and my layman’s attempt at trying to understand the math behind everything says it is a wistful fallacy that cannot be depended upon to produce necessary desired results within the player’s time constraint. Oh it can at times but just enough so you really get burned at some point.
While I find all this info interesting and useful in a very general way I think it quite important to remember that the provided averages and probabilities are distilled from a very large long term sampling. Even so perhaps this is still helpful info to players but should not be taken as gospel in the short term.
In general the ultimate error in trusting the law of averages is in believing there’s an underlying mechanism that maintains the equilibrium it represents.
So if I were a DI with a definable real skill who for some unknown reason also had a penchant for betting on randies what would I take away from all this?
First and foremost is what Heavy said about watching and analyzing the game in front of you. There is not one correct way to play every table and many players try to overlay their favorite or preferred method on top of whatever is occurring on the table. Play the game unfolding in front of you and not some theoretical mental one from your comfort zone or perfect probability. Things are happening and others are not in this specific game so adjust accordingly. Could it change? Of course but that’s true every time you make a bet for whatever reason. So at least have some basis for the bets you do make on randies if you can’t resist betting. If the game you’re in can’t be analyzed why are you even contemplating placing a bet on a randie?
Obviously one should not bet every randie shooter and have some method for selecting those that potentially could make us money. It is not my intention to discuss various selection methods but one of the most basic, though no magic solution, is the 5 Count. If you can’t keep your money off the felt when randies shoot and have no sensible filter for selection this will at least reduce the randies you bet on, avoid the quick 7 Outs, reduce losses and buy you more time at the table to perhaps catch one of those rare longer hands. This is merely a tool that could be helpful when properly utilized but still no guarantee for winning. Frankly if one has to bet on every randie I have little hope for a positive outcome except in those very rare brushes with unbelievable luck.
Assuming whatever selection method does produce randie shooters capable of tossing numbers we should realize it is far more likely to be a shorter hand than those rare monster rolls we all imagine inside our heads. We all intellectually know this, have heard this, but I hope all the various charts, averages, and probabilities above make it very gut real. Get in and off the felt quickly.
Build your potential win off the most likely using your observations and analysis with what you know of variance and skewness, number appearance, and hand lengths. Players willing to accept smaller carefully chosen randie shooter wins from limited time risked bets on the felt will add a little to their rack rather than draining from it. If you’re unable to do that then just lay off the randies completely and play to your DI advantage.
To win, especially on randies, one needs patience and discipline. To me one of the greatest negatives discipline has to keep in check is greed which can be as little as wanting one more hit up to wanting to ride it to the moon. I’ve seen lots of players who were winners take themselves to losers by their own choice. First it’s to win more, then to win back the portion of the profit they lost, then to not leave having just broke even after so much playing time, to trying to win back the lost portion of their buy-in, to watching their last bet go down and wondering why they didn’t stop while ahead and telling themselves next time it will be different. But it won’t be because they're not in control. Winning isn’t easy but it’s not that hard, just hard to stay a winner especially for the vacation recreational player.
Michael, I think all the answers to your original post questions are in this response. You’ll have to dig them out because I don’t believe there are any simple fit all answers. Craps is a wonderful game and there is no denying the math but within that math there is wiggle room if you don’t live and die by the math. For me beyond the math of Craps is the Art of Craps. Some interpret that to mean denying the math which is incorrect on their part. It means ignoring the math because we are experiencing variance and volatility and skewness. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong but always try to balance risk and benefit.
This is all general info that should float in your mind to help with those adaptive decisions rather than specifics to be memorized. Hope this was helpful.
PS - What a monumental pain in the butt to code for those tables!
Kelph
Last edited by Kelph on Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
wild child
- Posts: 1524
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm
Re: What to do ?
This is a very valuable thread....
Michael thank you for placing the starter and thanks to the respondents
Large body of knowledge here.....
..
This may seem anemic when inserted in all the above
>
A workable formula for winning play seems very elusive
for all but the most rock hard willed individuals
and seems near unobtainable for the bulk of participants :
.
Few have the resolve to pull down as in removing their
monies at risk or $$$$ wagered after a specific number of trials ..
( one or two rolls if still not terminated by the SEVEN OUT )
.
Place your choice of Box Number to place $ at risk of loss or reward of winning..
An example is place your wager ,then win or lose STOP....Take any winnings PLUS
the original U S D out of harm's way and bet no more....
.Second to that STEEPLY REDUCE
the US D $ AMOUNT AT Risk by a large percentage and only place at risk small amounts
from your winnings should there be future rolls on an extended hand..
...Even on the very rare occasion of an extended mega ,double or triple digit number of rolls ,
that seem will roll to eternity , stick to that game plan.
For all others there is some form of "bargaining,delusion "and the resulting reality of financial ruin....
just me saying
W C
Michael thank you for placing the starter and thanks to the respondents
Large body of knowledge here.....
..
This may seem anemic when inserted in all the above
>
A workable formula for winning play seems very elusive
for all but the most rock hard willed individuals
and seems near unobtainable for the bulk of participants :
.
Few have the resolve to pull down as in removing their
monies at risk or $$$$ wagered after a specific number of trials ..
( one or two rolls if still not terminated by the SEVEN OUT )
.
Place your choice of Box Number to place $ at risk of loss or reward of winning..
An example is place your wager ,then win or lose STOP....Take any winnings PLUS
the original U S D out of harm's way and bet no more....
.Second to that STEEPLY REDUCE
the US D $ AMOUNT AT Risk by a large percentage and only place at risk small amounts
from your winnings should there be future rolls on an extended hand..
...Even on the very rare occasion of an extended mega ,double or triple digit number of rolls ,
that seem will roll to eternity , stick to that game plan.
For all others there is some form of "bargaining,delusion "and the resulting reality of financial ruin....
just me saying
W C
Re: What to do ?
Kelph,
Thanks for all the time and trouble.
I'm still digesting.So far I'm impressed.
WC,
Your thoughts hit home.
Thanks for all the time and trouble.
I'm still digesting.So far I'm impressed.
WC,
Your thoughts hit home.
Rock On
M & M
M & M
Re: What to do ?
Great posts, Kelph. Thanks for contributing. Good to hear from you again.
h
h
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
-
Bankerdude80
- Posts: 1896
- Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:05 pm
Re: What to do ?
Thanks for the detailed post Kelph.
"Take the Money and Run...."
- Steve Miller Band
- Steve Miller Band