Betting Randies or Uncertain Self on Choppy Tables

[Kelph]

I’d like to suggest a play that is played several ways and while known is seldom spoken of in detail so I rummaged through my books and articles to pull the info together and share. Handled with care it and its versions can do well on choppy tables if the user has discipline.

Simply put it is hedging Do play with a DP bet and so we begin.

Barstow’s Beat The Dealer – (Keep in mind this was written in 1979). He suggests making a $10 to $15 DP bet and laying $10 to $12 odds. At this point he Places the remaining box numbers for $26 or $27 Across.

Barstow’s conservative version of this is to pull down each Place as it hits so that you will either break even or have a profit with just one hit before the 7 Out. If you have seven to eight rolls and only two Place hits you should pull down the remaining Place bets and the odds on the DP. Here the worst scenario is you break even and may end up $30 ahead. He further suggests that if you do get four Place hits it’s better to pull down the remaining one.

He gets more aggressive suggesting that rather than removing each Place win on a hit you let them remain for a set number of wins but always saying Same Bet. Try for a total of five hits and after three or more winning hits consider removing the odds portion of your DP. He claims this produced superior results for him on average but also burned him badly one time. He reminds us this is not a Cold table play and must be used adroitly for profit vs. being burned as he learned.

Barstow’s most aggressive version of this play is actually hoping your DP will lose assuming the shooter will have at least 15 to 20 rolls. As each Place wins you press the winnings and lock up the change. Once this change reaches the amount of your odds on the DP you remove those odds. The only caution he offers even if the DP goes down (which he hoped for) is to reduce the Place amounts if the shooter has reached 20 to 25 rolls or three Passes and has thrown CO 7s. If not then it’s time to come down.

Another version of Barstow’s Don’t hedge is to make a $10 DP (no odds) and Place the 6 & 8 for $12 each. Take the $14 win on the first hit of either the 6 or 8 and pull down both Place bets and wait out the DP which depending on the result will provide either a $4 or $24 win.

If the 6 or 8 is the point number you can just Place the remaining one (preferred) or you could Place the free 6 or 8 for $12 and the 5 & 9 for $5 each. Follow procedure above with the option of Placing the DP number once the Place bets are removed.

Barstow’s general cautions with such plays are:
1. Change tables if frequency of CO 7s & 11s is above normal.
2. If you lose DP because shooter made the Point do not replace until shooter 7s Out or 15 rolls pass since last 7.
3. If you lose DP because of a shooter throwing CO naturals do not make another DP bet though you may want to proceed to make two or three Place bets after the Point is established.

Moving on to a 1988 publication called Craps –Secrets of Professionals by Pascal.

First title of this hedge is Hedge My Way And Win – Place four units on the DP and lay single odds when the Point is established. Now make a two unit Come bet and take double odds and continue to do this until you have three working Come bets. If a Come bet wins replace it.

Second title of this hedge is Back Line Plus 7 Method – Just a simplified version of Barstow’s conservative play that also suggests his more aggressive stance if things heat up.

Both of these simplified versions are kind of a let down after Barstow’s detail.

Next comes from the old Crapsmen Newsletters that I always like rereading.

First is July/August 1987 called The Action Line Play For Come Bettors by Arthur Stanley.

Bet two units on DP and parley if a CO 2 or 3 shows. If they continue to show lock up the winnings while keeping the DP bet at the initial parlayed amount. Lay double odds on DP but based on original two unit amount, not the parlayed amount.

Bet one unit on Come and take double or triple odds. Parley Come bet if 11 appears but base odds on original one unit. Make two more additional Come bets following same procedure. Continue making Come bets as they win but never having more than three working Comes.

After three full Come bet wins increase base Come bet by one unit.

If shooter’s Point is made switch and bet two units on Pass and take odds of your choice to seize advantage of a potential hot roll. As long as numbers continue to be rolled keep making Come and Pass bets with as much full odds as you can safely handle. After three Come ones increase Come bets by one more unit and Pass by 50%. When shooter 7s out return to DP and original bet amounts.

Suggested BR of 100 units and 1 hour playing limit.

Still from The Crapsmen – August 1988 called Off-Setting Bets, Can They Win by Edward Heston

I won’t repeat this article because I found it to be disappointingly almost a word for word plagiarism of what Frank Barstow wrote in 1979. There was no credit given to Barstow in the article and I only mention it to show that this hedge has been around and discussed even if by misrepresenting someone else’s words as your own.

Next a hedging article I found on About.com (sorry no date) by Bill Burton and titled Craps Hedge Betting. While this article talks about a number of hedges I’m only paraphrasing the one closest to the DP hedge theme I’ve chosen.

Bet $10 on the DP and once the Point is established make a $6 Place bet on the 6 & 8 and no odds on the DP. On the first winning hit on the 6 or 8 you keep the winnings to guarantee a $5 profit if the shooter now 7s out. Second winning hit Place the 5 or 9 depending which seems hotter and lock up change. Third winning Place hit regardless of which number you Place the remaining sister number, 5 or the 9, and lock up the change. From this point on you just lock up the winnings. If the shooter makes the Point do not make another DP or any new Place bets and ride out the existing Place bets. You’re playing this method because the table is unstable. Do not start pressing. If you want to win more start higher (more risk financially) but win more in same amount of time and rolls.

Here are possible results if shooter 7s out.
Lose $12 in Place bets but win $10 on DP for a $2 loss. After the first Place hit you have a $5 profit, after the second Place hit a $19 profit, after the third Place hit (Inside covered) a $21 profit, and after the fourth Place hit a $28 profit. You also have the option of pulling down Place bets after third hit for $21 and riding out the $10 DP for a total win of $31 with a DP win. If performed after the fourth Place hit the total win would be $38 with a DP win).

If the shooter makes the point.
Before the first Place hit you lose $10 but the two $6 Place bets remain. Just ride them out.
After the first Place hit a $3 loss, after the second Place hit a $1 loss, after the third Place hit (Inside covered) a $1 profit and after the fourth Place hit an $8 profit. You also have the option of pulling down Place bets after third hit for $21 and riding out the $10 DP for a total win of $11 if DP loses. If performed after the fourth Place hit the total win would be $18 if DP loses.

Option on just riding DP is to Place the Point with the amount depending on the number so you either breakeven or make a little money regardless of decision.

The worst possible outcome would be the shooter making the Point immediately after establishing it, establishing the second Point and then immediately 7 out for a $22 loss (loss of original DP and then the two remaining $6 Place bets).

If you quit after three losses in a row the suggested bankroll is $75.

Here is a Oct.1977 article titled The Hedge System For Craps as a bonus feature of the month from Gambling Times.

The article starts out how most players are right bettors with the smarter ones focusing on Pass and Come with double odds to squeeze the HA as low as possible but they lament how even the best fear the 7 and search for a way to tame it. They, whoever they are because no name is attached to the article, claims to have run it through thousands of recorded rolls and then for a long time in actual Nevada casinos. The claim goes further to say that it works well on both a hot or cold table. It starts by saying it will use units rather dollars and a session bankroll should be no more than 10% of the overall bankroll. Now that the reader is hooked the article gets to the meat and variations.

In a nutshell you always lay single odds against the Point and take double odds on the Come bets. Bet 4 units on DP and then lay single odds. Next make a 2 unit Come bet and if the 7 shows now we win the DP with odds and our Come. If a Come is established we take double odds and make another Come bet. If a 7 Out occurs now we lose the first Come bet and odds but win the second Come bet and DP bet with odds. Make a third 2 unit Come bet and take double odds and then stop betting. From this point we only make new Come bets when an existing one repeats and we never have more than three.

A 7 Out just after making the third Come bet with odds would be the worst timing for us but it wouldn’t kill us. The loss between the DP win and Come losses would be about 1/3 of what a Pass/Come player would have to endure.

Now if the Point is made we only lose the DP and odds but the Come bets with odds remain. Now switch to Pass with double odds to take advantage of a possible developing hot roll. When it all ends return to the DP and begin again.

Again they emphasize that this will make money on cold or tepid table and a lot on tables that turn hot.

They offer a conservative variation saying that if the DP goes down one can reset the DP rather than switching the Line bet to Pass and continue to protect those Come bets. A more aggressive stance after a DP goes down is to replace the DP but Place the other numbers for two units each and convert the Comes as they hit.

When way ahead leave 20% on the rails and pocket the rest and when that 20% is gone leave a winner. If it runs up again, great.

Note – For so much info on what is supposedly an introduction to a not well-known system it is surprising that taming CO 7s & 11s experienced in the fiery CO cauldron is totally absent from the three page article.

Next are two methods from the1988 book Henry Tamburin on Casino Gambling.

The first method is pretty much the same DP and Come idea except he suggests single odds on both but just two Come bets. He does use a little twist if the shooter is throwing numbers of also Placing the 6 & 8 if either or both not covered by Come bets. If the shooter knocks down the DP he also switches over to Pass under the assumption a potential hot roll might be underway.

The second method is quite simple. Make a $10 DP bet and if the established Point is not the 6 or 8 you Place both for $6 each. If the shooter 7s Out now you lose $2. Assuming that doesn’t happen you want a hit on the 6 or 8 to bring down the Place bets within the next three rolls or the Place bets come down anyway. Now just ride out the flat DP or you could as an option Place it to breakeven or show a small profit.

Both of these methods seemed light on detail.

Now the most impressively named method, The Montarde-dGirard Double Reverse by Avery Cardoza in 1992.

This comes in a binder with two other methods, one for hot tables, one for cold tables in addition to this one for choppy tables. None of the three are earth shattering news worthy breakthroughs and have been around in one form or another well before Cardoza’s publish date so the only thing I see that could be under copyright are the exact words of his descriptions and the extraordinary titles.

This choppy table method is the same general hedge I’ve been threading through all these variations and this one isn’t very different except each of the three table methods are printed on their own colored paper which I suppose makes them a little more special than those merely printed on white.

This isn’t complicated. Make a two unit DP and lay single odds.
Now make continuous one unit Come bets taking double odds until the 7 Out.
If the shooter repeats the Point make another two unit DP, lay single odds and continue making one unit Come bets with double odds until a 7 Out. If the shooter knocks down your DP a second time stop making bets on this shooter.

The only additional information Avery suggests is when winning to increase the DP and Come based on how many units you’re ahead and I’ll refrain from being precise on those increase amounts and triggers because who knows what he thinks is actually legally copyrighted.

Before I go to my final examples I wish to point out that so far most of these methods fail to address the most fundamental concern of using any DP bet, whether as a straight-up pure Don’t or as a hedge, which is to survive getting it established. The CO is the bane of Don’t bettors, the fiery passage through which the bet must travel to exist and 22.2% of the time it won’t survive, 2.78% of the time it’s a push so you try again and 66.67% of the time it emerges to the other side but could be attached to any of the box numbers. For the Don’t player some numbers are better than others though all have an advantage but not equal advantage. Still a bet advantage really only counts if you win and each can still win or lose.

The ideas and variations presented really don’t matter if you can’t get the DP established without hopelessly bleeding your bankroll which leads me to some ideas from John Patrick’s Advanced Craps. Some are groaning and shaking their heads from side to side while frowning and yet some shake theirs up in down in agreement. John does draw strong opinions from many but I believe, whether you agree or disagree with his philosophy, you have to admit he doesn’t skimp on offering a variety of methods or details. Frankly reading John was my first in depth introduction to what I needed to understand if I wanted to win. Everybody else lightly skated over bankroll, Craps knowledge, money management and the importance of discipline (probably the hardest to learn and master but without which you drift unanchored throughout your play and lose too often) and John’s books hammered it home repeatedly.

I bring John Patrick in not to present another version of the theme I’ve chosen but because he is a maniac when it comes to hedging to reduce exposure. He expounds at length and detail on what can be done and why to keep your bet or bets safe or at least safer. When I first read them and understood his thinking I pictured them as little building blocks with various purposes that can be combined and configured to help achieve one’s goal at the tables. In case you didn’t know John is a Don’t bettor so many of his hedges and spin-off options are geared to help those of similar ilk.

I’ll just present a few and clean up the approach later.

OK, so we want to establish a DP. The Don’t purest will fight the CO 22.22% chance of losing, 8.33% chance of winning, 2.78% chance of pushing knowing there’s a 66.67% chance of surviving with one of the box numbers. At times it feels like the 7 and/or the 11 are drawn to the CO as potential DP after DP goes down in flames.

Simple solution is a $41 No 4 or No 10 or both if you want to spread out the risk though that doubles the likelihood that one of the two may lose. Such could be further hedged with a Hard 4 or Hard 10. Heavy has an excellent description in the Dark Side Strategies thread.

John offers The Patrick System version of the Doey Don’t. The Do and Don’t bets neutralizes the CO Naturals on both sides except for the 12. You have the option of risking the Don’t push on 12 and losing the Pass bet or dropping $1 on the Midnight Prop. Once established you only lay the odds.

John likes to use the Ricochet which he credits to Les Scally. Wait out the CO roll make a Lay bet against whichever number is the Point. Lay $25 against 6/8, $31 against 5/9, & $41 against 4/10. Now make a $15 DC with a $1 Yo and as soon as the DC is established remove the Lay. Your greatest vulnerability is when making the DC bet and the Point comes right back to win and kill your Lay thus the name Ricochet.

My purpose with this post is to present a method of play for when a DI, against their own better judgment, still has the unstoppable urge to bet on randie but can clearly see there is no definable table trend or when a DI feels they can’t trust their own shooting. With all this info I think there’s enough to put a decent approach together.

First consideration, is this type of approach suitable for the specific table conditions you’re observing? IMHO this is not initially for a Cold or Hot table. This is taken from one of my posts in another thread…

The cumulative probability for a shooter to make six Passes in a row:

1 Pass.. 40.61%.
2 Passes.. 16.49%.
3 Passes.. 6.70%.
4 Passes.. 2.72%.
5 Passes.. 1.10%.
6 Passes.. .45%.

The cumulative probability for seeing six winning Don’t passes in a row:

1 Don’t.. 59.39%.
2 Don’ts.. 35.28%.
3 Don’ts.. 20.95%.
4 Don’ts.. 12.44%.
5 Don’ts.. 7.39%.
6 Don’ts.. 4.39%.

Seeing either of these scenarios should wave you away from employing this approach. We want to see choppy results meaning both Do & Don’t bettors are complaining.

Our second consideration is which method of CO protection we’ll use in establishing our future Don’t and whether that will be the DP itself or will we make our dominant a DC. This Don’t is our protection for the Do bets we’ll be making so we want quality and decent $$ value protection. Personally I’m concerned with exposure time and rolls with this approach because our aim is to grab some winnings and get off the felt unscathed before the table once again screws all players. So I would choose a 4 or 10 Lay (strong Don’t numbers) on the CO DP roll rather than a Doey/Don’t or Ricochet which at best would take a roll or two longer to set-up.

If I chose to just do a single $41 No 4 or No 10 Lay I’d probably use a $5 hedge on the Hardway. This reduces the 8.33% chances of losing to 5.56% if the Lay number comes easy, a 2.78% chance of losing just $6 if it comes hard, and a 58.33% chance of establishing 4 or 10 (whichever is not the Lay), 5, 6, 8, or 9 as the DP.

I might Lay the 4 & 10 to spread out the potential amount of a loss and increase the flat amount of the DP even if the two Lays are increasing the chances of losing money from 8.33% to 16.67%. That flat DP increase would also allow me to make a Hard 4 & 10 bet to reduce the amount lost on the Lay number if it comes hard but increases the amount lost if it comes easy. However we only have an 11.11% chance of a full loss if either number comes easy, a 5.56% chance of a reduced loss if either comes hard and a 50% chance of establishing a 5, 6, 8, or 9 as a DP.

Even if the worst happens in either case with our Lay number coming up easy for a loss we end up with a very strong Don’t DP number. A 5 or 9 wouldn’t be so bad but with such a choppy table a 6 or 8 may be questionable. Remove the Lays and Hardway bets but rather than yelling out “no action” on the 6 or 8 you have other options to consider.

Should you now Place the weak 6 or 8 Don’t for an amount equal to the flat DPs value so it produces a small profit if it repeats and breaks even if a 7 shows or Place it for a lower amount than the flat DP so a repeat lowers the loss amount while a 7 produces a profit or should you just lay the odds and bet the DC using the odds and flat DP potential to calculate the protected new flat DC bet? Depending on your decision and the flat and odds (if used) amount of the DP and Placed 6 or 8 hedges you may need to replace a No 4 or 10 Lay with its fully hedged Hardway. Lot’s of thinking just to get out on a decent Don’t number without bleeding too much isn’t it?

I prefer to have a larger flat DP or DC to work with for this method rather than smaller flat bets and laying odds. Odds are a more expensive risk protection that don’t provide as much protection per dollar but they can be lowered or removed as things progress smoothly to lower any potential loss if the Point or DC number repeat. However their removal leaves you with a small flat Don’t for protection. A larger flat DP or DC can also be lowered by Placing against it as things progress up to full hedge for additional profit regardless of Line decision direction once the other Do bets are removed. That’s just my preference.

Once a DP or a DC is established, regardless of the number, the shooter has a 40.6% chance of repeating the number for a Don’t loss but a 59.39% chance of throwing the 7 first for a Don’t win. This may appear to be large but this is after the CO win advantage the Right side enjoys has passed and that now missing advantage is what makes the two almost equal. If you’d like number specificity the 4 or 10 Point wins 33.33% & loses 66.67%, the 5 or 9 wins 40% & loses 60%, and the 6 or 8 wins 45.5% & loses 54.5%. Arriving at this advantage clearly shows why you must establish your Don’t protection with as little loss as possible, But as heady as those numbers are remember even when the chances of winning are 99 to 1 in your favor you can still lose.

Now that we’ve established our Don’t protection be it DP or DC we remove all Lays bets and odds. A Hardway hedge may be used if on an even number and desired but it will be a cost.

Third consideration is how to proceed with our Do bets. Will we use Come bets or Place bets and like everything else there are advantages and disadvantages to both. Again my main concerns are time, rolls and now I’ll add control.

What I like about Come bets in general is that they flow out to the felt slowly so one cannot over bet too quickly and that the winning bets automatically come back to you so you have to bet the Come again. That attribute is a negative for me with this method. Come bets can profitably zero in on repeating numbers and odds can pay more depending on their size and if the 7 does appear you collect on that last Come bet. What I don’t like especially with this method is that the flat portions are contract bets that cannot be removed when this method requires just that ability to ensure and increase profit within a narrow window of opportunity. All the flat bets can be lost on the next CO 7 after just losing your DP protection while only one can win on the CO at a time and that can eat away at that so hard earned profit.

What I like about Place bets is you can quickly choose the numbers and you have complete control on raising, lowering, changing, turning off and on, and removing them. Pretty much this is what is required with this method. What I don’t like is the ability to choose too many for too much and over stay too long if discipline isn’t strong. Placing requires more thinking as to how many numbers, which numbers, and how much because you’re loading the risk up front. Placing with this method requires strong discipline as you are always staring down the rabbit hole especially when it seems to be functioning smoothly. Do not go down that hole.

I would carefully establish my Don’t along the lines I’ve described because these writers, except for JP, seem to assume it just will just happen regardless of cost. The actual bet amounts are best left to you and your bankroll but I think it’s clear how the amounts need to relate to each other for safety, profit and further manipulation as the hand proceeds.

If I were a DI trying to play randies on a choppy table or felt that I couldn’t trust my own rolls but still wanted to shoot I would use one of the methods described to establish a viable amount DP or DC to hedge my planned Place bets. Personally I would use a mixture of Barstow’s conservative and his “more”, not the “most”, aggressive approach. Also add in Arthur Stanley’s idea of stacking up the first of any fortunate Don’t CO Natural wins and locking up any additional natural wins that follow. I would not try to cover that extra flat amount in any Hardway hedge. Say I have a flat $25 or $30 DP or DC established which would be the 4, 5, 9 or 10, I need to decide if I’m Placing the remaining Across or the Inside. Depending on the amount of safety coverage I want, and that includes any Hardway hedge, and financial risk I’m willing to bear for a roll will determine whether I Place 1, 2, or 3 (aggressive) units on each of my chosen numbers.

The next throw is your highest risk since it could take the DP or DC minus any winning hedge or all your Place bets minus the winning Don’t hedge. As a Place number hits take the winnings and regress that number and its sister to a single unit each. Do this with each multiple unit Place number bet and its sister as it hits. If it’s the lone Place sister number of the DP or DC just regress it. If a regressed number hits again remove it as you collect its winnings but let the sister remain until it hits. Set your total number of rolls to be at risk before completely coming down and hedging the DP or DC.

Remember you have two different financial risks to watch and adjust, Do and Don’t bets. As Place numbers hit and their winnings are collected appropriate Place bets are regressed. As the Right side $$ risk decreases with winnings and smaller bet amounts on the felt you need to adjust the financial $$ risk of the full Don’t. Adjust its protection down to cover the reduce Right sided risk by Placing the DP or DC number which will take much of the financial sting from the shooter making the DP or DC. I certainly prefer this to pulling money off any Don’t bet.

If I needed to be a little more conservative I’d gladly choose Bill Burton’s Craps Hedge Betting and again I would add Arthur Stanley’s advice to parlay any shooters first natural Don’t wins on 2 or 3 and then lock up any additional natural wins on the same CO. This might take a little longer to roll out the Inside bets but it holds down the initial risk, gets you safer faster and keeps you that way. Again I would choose a safe CO passage play to establish the DP or DC rather than the rainbow and unicorn assumption it will somehow magically exist.

Remember this method is to get in quickly after establishing some protection so you can grab profit with as little risk as you can create and safely retreat with an opportunity to grab a little extra profit on the way out regardless of the DP or DC decision as you escape on a table that’s bouncing around and killing everybody. If you’ve the bankroll you can increase the bets accordingly to win more within the same amount of time and number of rolls. Don't dawdle.

This is not a guaranteed winning method and I don’t know of any or I’d be using it. I do believe it to be sound and viable if properly handled with discipline, ongoing observation and analysis on a choppy table. You will still experience losses but the method should mitigate them especially if you look at the other player's results. Feel free to comment and adjust. If you have to win big and are easily swayed by a couple of winning rolls this probably isn’t going to work for you.

Kelph

[London Shooter]

Wow I can't do this justice right now but will have to have a full read another tome

[heavy]

I'll second that "wow." Excellent post, Kelph, and a lot to digest. I own just about every book you mentioned above, including the Crapsmen newsletters (currently on loan to SIA). I've always liked Barstow's book. His strategies are somewhat similar to SIA's
"one hit - can't miss" play.

Back in the day, when I first tip-toed into the dark side, this was one of my favorite plays:

Another version of Barstow’s Don’t hedge is to make a $10 DP (no odds) and Place the 6 & 8 for $12 each. Take the $14 win on the first hit of either the 6 or 8 and pull down both Place bets and wait out the DP which depending on the result will provide either a $4 or $24 win.

Thanks for putting in the time and effort to put this post together.