Best Game in Town - Part Deux

[Mad Professor]

The Field Bet is just a misplaced Proposition Bet with Bonuses

• Like the Prop Bets it is a one roll bet
• Without bonuses it would be at a 11.11% House Advantage
• The bonuses do not increase the frequency of winning
• The bonuses are on the least frequently hit numbers, the 2 and the 12
• The Casinos put some lipstick(Bonus) on the Field Bet to make it attractive to the bettor!

And if the house didn't pay a 'bonus' on the Passline for a Come-Out 7 or 11 (and didn't deduct anything for 2's, 3's, or 12's); then the house would have a 20% advantage over the PL.

The lipstick in this case would be those bonus pay 7's and 11's.

Without those, this would be a different game too; but that's not the case! A similar argument could be made for every bet in the casino.



MP

[Consultant]

Ay, there is the rub...

The difference between the math of probability and the math of frequency.

The casino understands both and doesn't really care as long as they have an advantage large or small.

They understand advantage and compounding.

[heavy]

And if you don't want to believe me or MP on this, take Michael Shackleford's opinion from http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/:

Some stingy casinos, namely the Harrah's corporate properties, the Riviera, and the Casino Royale, pay only 2 to 1 on both the 2 and 12. This doubles the house edge to 5.56%. The Santa Ana Star casino in New Mexico pays 3 to 1 on both the 2 and 12, for exactly zero house edge. Bravo!

[Consultant]

And if you don't want to believe me or MP on this, take Michael Shackleford's opinion from http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/:

for exactly zero house edge. Bravo!

for exactly zero house edge. No!

Yes, I believe the wizardofodds, but I am surprised that he would equate a Bonus mathematically with Probability an exact math entity. Very unlike him, but I did just read his opinion.

Try to put a bonus into a math formula without warping the probability.

Truly I understand where you are coming from...

Do you understand my point of view?

I cannot arrive at an exactly zero house edge with any known math(and I don't believe that the Casino does either!).

[Consultant]

Yes, I did contact: http://wizardofodds.com/site/contact/

Hope to receive an answer.

[Consultant]

Field Bet: 2 or 12 pays 3-1
Don't feel sorry for the poor casino, they only payout the bonus two times out of thirty-six rolls.
They win twenty times while the bettor wins only sixteen times.
A bonus increases the amount of the win, but not the frequency.
[tr][td][b]Field Bet: 2 or 12 pays 3-1[/b][/td][td][b]Random[/b][/td][td][b]Times[/b][/td][td][b]Payout[/b][/td][td][b]Equals[/b][/td][td][b]Return[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]Number Tossed[/b][/td][td][b]Frequency[/b][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]2[/b][/td][td]1[/td][td]x[/td][td]1 + 2*[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]3[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]3[/b][/td][td]2[/td][td]x[/td][td]1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]2[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]4[/b][/td][td]3[/td][td]x[/td][td]1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]3[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=#FF0000][b]5[/b][/color][/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]4[/color][/b][/td][td]x[/td][td]-1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-4[/color][/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=#FF0000][b]6[/b][/color][/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]5[/color][/b][/td][td]x[/td][td]-1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-5[/color][/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=#FF0000][b]7[/b][/color][/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]6[/color][/b][/td][td]x[/td][td]-1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-6[/color][/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][color=#FF0000][b]8[/b][/color][/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]5[/color][/b][/td][td]x[/td][td]-1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-5[/color][/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]9[/b][/td][td]4[/td][td]x[/td][td]1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]4[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]10[/b][/td][td]3[/td][td]x[/td][td]1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]3[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]11[/b][/td][td]2[/td][td]x[/td][td]1[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]2[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b]12[/b][/td][td]1[/td][td]x[/td][td]1 + 2*[/td][td]=[/td][td][b]3[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td]Totals[/td][td][b]36[/b][/td][td].[/td][td].[/td][td].[/td][td][b]0[/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td][b][color=#FF0000]Red[/color] = Player loses[/b][/td][td][color=#FF0000][b]20[/b][/color][/td] [td].[/td][td]* Equals a bonus[/td][td].[/td][td].[/td][/tr] The House Advantage/Disadvantage will vary according to your ability and dice set.

[heavy]

I don't think anyone disagrees with you over the fact that the casino wins 20 times and the player wins 16 ina random distribution. But in that same 36 roll distribution you win 20 units and lose 20 units for a zero sum game. I think the issue here is that you are basing your entire premise on decisions while we're talking in terms of units. At the end of the day I can spend dollars. I can't spend decisions.

Feel sorry for the casino? Nah. But their marketing department is doing them a disservice by not promoting the game more.

[wudged]

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here other than triple/triple field has the same number of winning dice combinations as double/triple or even double double, but your chart clearly shows the total expected return is 0. This is the definition of house edge. It has nothing to do with how many possible combinations there are to win or lose a bet or what each combination pays out.

If there was a game where you make a bet, draw a card from a standard 52 card deck, and were paid 4:1 for drawing a spade, would you still consider that a "bonus" payout and a "prop" bet? How about if it paid 5:1 (what world would that ever happen in!) ?

[Consultant]

The issue here isn't edge, it's volatility, both as a player and as the casino. I've often said that the casino could offer many more zero edge games/wagers, and they'd still make money. Why? Because they have the bankroll to withstand volatility. The player does not.

• Thanks irish. I could not have stated it better:
• The Field Bet is a One Roll bet!
• There will be a 5 to 4 win in favor of the Casino
• The Casino has a noticeably larger Bankroll.
• The 2 and 12 are the least hit numbers 1/36.
• Most of us tend to avoid the Horn numbers and the Sevens when possible.
• I cannot bring myself to equate a bonus with a hit mathematically.
• I wanted to see if a newby was welcome on this board.
• I was interested to see how your phpBBCODE worked with lists and tables.
• I already know that you know more about the game than I do.

[Consultant]

I imagine that there are a number of definitions of House Edge and House Advantage:

wudged wrote: the total expected return is 0. This is the definition of house edge.

Heavy wrote: we're talking in terms of units

Consultant: The Casino alters the payout so that it is in their favor. Thus, the Casino has a mathematical edge.

House Edge:

wizardofodds

1. The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet.
2. The house edge is not the ratio of money lost to total money wagered.

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

[wudged]

The average loss is $0, regardless of initial bet, making the ratio 0 as well.

[Consultant]

the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet

I bristled slightly at the assumption of a loss in that statement.

It seems like a slight for any ability to have a gain.

[heavy]

Well, that WAS fun. Now let's mention a thing or two that was missed. Without table limits any of us could run a martingale on this wager and clean house. Unfortunately, negative progressions can and usually do bite you on the ass. Back in my younger days I lost a shit-load of money playing a due-number sevens hop strategy. Learned that lesson and haven't tried it since. With that said, a review of your Bonetracker results over the long run might send certain folks to the table using something like the crossed sixes set - which kicks off a LOT of Field numbers for some shooters - and have some real fun with it.

All of this reminds me of a strategy Irish and Maddog came up with a few years back that involved a progression of some sort on the Horn. As I recall, it was a money maker. Just not ENOUGH of a money maker for the risk involved.

[Maddog]

the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet

I bristled slightly at the assumption of a loss in that statement.

LOL.. yes, but I guess we do have to remember he is writing under the constraint of the structured math of probability and payouts associated with the casino negative expectation game. He does not have the luxury of playing to the influenced dice theory, nor short-term variance possibilities.

[Mad Professor]

That "due-number Hop-7's" strategy was also a favorite of one of the minor craps m-boards owners about 10 years back.

H or one of the other guys will remember...it was either the CrapsPit guy or the AllCraps guy who played that strategy down to his very last dime if I recall correctly.

That one had d.i.s.a.s.t.e.r. written all over it. I remember a number of us trying to talk him out of it; but to no avail.


MP

[Consultant]

aparadim, irish, wudged. Heavy, Maddog, Mad Professor:

Thank you for your responses!

I have learned a little from each of you and a little about posting to this phpBBCODE forum.

[heavy]

There are a lot of BB language codes that are not set up in the site. Looks like you figured out the bold face, colors, and images plus the tables code (I hate that one). I am a keep it simple kind of guy.

MP - I think you may be referring to the Ah Craps chap.

[Consultant]

[tr] [td][img]styles/subsilver2/imageset/site_logo.gif[/img][/td] [td align="center" width="100%"][h1]www.axispowercraps.com[/h1][span class="gen"]Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum[/span][/td] [/tr] Just trying to discover what attributes you don't include.

[wild child]

.
Just an aside , for what it is worth............

The player buys in with honest to goodness hard earned FIAT $ U S D........

The casino issues chips or casino cheques if you please.

The value of the chips was at a recent time about 33 cents ($ 0.33 ) U S D.....not up to date in 2012 accounting. Whatever..... Once droped down the rat hole , fewer of those casino cheques are redeemed for honest to goodness Fiat CASH........

Still the same CASINO MATH........

W C

[Mad Professor]

I think the Santa Ana Star’s elimination of the house-edge on the Buy-4, Buy-10, and Field-bet does make a difference to skilled-shooters who are seeking to leverage their D-I abilities on bets where they already have an advantage.

By eliminating the house-edge on those wagers, the skill-required threshold is effectively levelled-out to zero…meaning that any above-random skill that you’ve created for yourself, goes directly to the positive-expectation side of things without any of it first being used to fill-in the normally-found neg-ex hole.

How big of a hole does Santa Ana Star’s no-house-edge offering, fill in?

~Well for the Buy-4 and Buy-10, it overcomes the normal -4.76% deficit for those coming from a vig-up-front game, and a -1.67% deficit for those coming from a vig-only-on-win game.

~And for the Field-bet, it overcomes the normal -5.56% deficit for those coming from a double-pay-12 game, and a -2.78% deficit for those coming from a triple-pay-12 game.

Again, the less of a house-edge obstacle a skilled-shooter has to overcome on a bet where he has a valid in-casino advantage; the more his D-I abilities are leveraged to the profit-side of the ledger instead of mostly/partially being used to first overcome the built-in house edge against that wager.


What skilled-shooter would ever sneer at that?



MP