Random Roller Stragegy Testing

[acpa]

I understand what you say about short term.

however how many of us have played enough at the casino to approximate the long term.

I may be an exception,but when I lived in Arkansas my actual casino rolls averaged over 5,000 a year.

I don't know what the number would me if I counted the random rollers.

off the top ofmy head I suspect Dynafreak and 5$Bill parochial your 8,000 rolls in a year and there are probably others.

Noah

[al_falcons]

Noah, I looked back at the methods a little more this morning. I started each with a $1000 bankroll and then put win, loss and time limits to each session.
$66 inside, one hit and down. Win limit $300, loss limit $300, time limit 3 hours. Results: won 58 out of 100 times, Won $3972 or an average of $39.72 each session. Hit the loss limit 27 times.

$5 pass, $20 odds on every point set. Again Win limit $300, loss limit $300, time limit 3 hours. Results: won 57 out of 100 times, Won $1556, average, $15.56 each session. Hit the loss limit 19 times.

$don't pass, $10 odds on every point set - The data isn't complete for 100 sessions.

At the time I tested random methods I was trying to "follow the trend" and switch back and forth on the pass line or don't pass depending on how my bankroll was doing, normally switching at a loss of $150. I have abandoned that type of strategy in the real world I found it better to just stick to one side or the other. If you are losing on one side and then switch to the other, you are probably going to just lose on the other side as the first side "recovers" and the math catches back up.

Recently I have been doing a $10 pass line ONLY on the random rollers or $10 pass line loss progression where I increase the pass line by $1 for every loss and decrease the pass line by $1 for every win. I feel like this keeps me in the game at least I can make some money on some randy who makes a lot of points. I have only tested these methods on my rolls, not on random rolls in WinCraps. I may have to give that a try on the random set. These methods will win small or lose small most of the time.

[Mad Professor]

There is no magical point when the "short-term" suddenly turns into the "long-term".

If you think you can consistently out-wit, out-guess, out-play, and out-last random variance often enough to profitably prevail...then keep on doing what you are doing; because your forward-looking same-approach earnings (or losses) will almost perfectly mirror your past same-approach randomly-bet earnings or losses.

So if that's NOT a scary thought for you; then simply keep on doing what you've been doing up to now, and you'll get very close to the same overall results that you've gotten in the past.



MP

[acpa]

I've been playing a pass line continous come bet starting with double odd going up to 10 times odds by pressing hits to triple, five times, eight times and then to repeating ten times.

have always been on the plus side from the get go, at the highest was up $3,000 plus at about 4000 rolls. Right now with 11,000 rolls I'm up about $200 instead of being down the approximately $775 that would be expected at a 1.41 expected house advantage.

Longest roll was in the 40s.

So this shooter is up for what I would call the long term. but that betting approach should not be a winner.

Noah

[heavy]

Re-Post of yet another system/strategy test on Random Rollers. We never tire of trying to figure out how to bet the house on the Randies.

[AlBTossin]

Sharkbyte, I am the same way. I want to play when I am at the tables and have worked on several strategies regarding betting on other players. As we all know there is no system that will win all the time. But this is the most productive play I use on other shooters that doesn't expose much cash, minimizes loses and puts me in position to make money on medium to long rolls.

I use the doey/ don't to get past the come out, place $12 ea on 6 & 8 and lay 2x odds on the DP for a hedge. On the 1st hit collect $14 and regress to $22 inside (or even if you want), and regress to single DP odds. At this point the 7 can't hurt you much and you have $22 working. You can play any progression you want from this point. I collect the next hit so I have $23 of $24 off the table. From there I want to get the 6/8 pressed as soon as possible.

The other key to this play is to turn off your bets after 5 or 6 rolls and wait for a decision. You have the option of working or removing your DP odds - I usually keep the odds working until the shooter can make points. Yes it hurts when they roll another 10 rolls after turning off but most decisions come quick if they make it to 5 or 6 rolls. On the next point (same or new shooter), I usually wait for one roll (pso or pt made) to turn bets back on and replace the single odds on the DP. If it is a new shooter I use the 5 or 6 toss rule to turn bets off again. If it is the same shooter I may ride it out according to what I'm seeing. If the shooter makes two points I usually switch to the pass line odds to hopefully ride out a good roll.

Deviation from betting: If the 6 or 8 is the point I place the sister for $12 and the 5 & 9 for $5 ea. and lay double odds. On the first hit I regress to $16 inside (or even) and single DP odds. Many time I start at $16 inside with single DP odds since this point is made frequently.

If the point is 4 or 10 I don't like to lay $20 to get $10 so I just lay $16 - a little less sting if the point hits before a regression.

I know this play probably has too many moving parts and variables to put in your program, but at least it is another option for you to consider on your quest. Good luck!

[crapsjourney]

Gee this forum has some good stuff in it. As a newbie I hate reinventing the wheel so learning from everyone here is wonderful. I only have one casino in my city, and since I would still consider myself a RR (an enlightened one that is on the DI path) I am very keen to try other betting methods that hold up.

Has anyone programmed into Wincraps the method that AIBTossin has mentioned? If not I could have a go at it.

[Kelph]

sharkbyte,

Really interesting thread and kind of a big job you've taken on.

Having read AlBTossin's post I have a play rather similar if it's possible to code with all the moving parts. It starts using the No 4 and/or No 10 to create a flat Don't protection to shield Place bets for a limit number of rolls and then pulls them down and hedges the Don't.

Lay $61 No 4 or No 10 on the CO roll, whichever was the last to show, and bet $25 on the DP with an optional $1 YO.

If there is a CO 7 we win the Lay for a net $3.00 and replace the $25 DP bet and the optional $1 YO.
If the Lay loses we still have a strong $25 DP number established.
If an 11 kills our DP attempt we lose $11 and replace the DC bet again and keep the optional YO up.

We want the DP to be a 4, or 5 or 9 or 10 and if that's the case we remove the Lay and no more YO bet.
If the DP is a 6 or 8 we remove the Lay and bet $25 on DC using the naked established DP as cover and an optional $1 YO.
If the established DC is the sister of the DP 6 or DP 8 we Place both the DP and the DC for $18.
If during our Don’t Come CO attempt the DP 6 or DP 8 is made and now becomes our DC we bet DP $25 on the new CO roll using the DC as our cover and a $1 optional YO. If the former Point of 6 or 8 comes right back costing us the DC we Place the DP for $18 and ride out this hand. If the former Point’s sister number, 6 or 8, becomes the new DP we Place the DP and DC for $18 and ride out this hand.
If we establish the 4 or 5 or 9 or 10 as our DC we Place the DP 6 or DP 8 with an $18 hedge.

Once we've established our preferred working Don't number of 4, or 5, or 9, or 10 be it with the DP or DC there shouldn't be any Lay or YO bet up. Now we Place any uncovered Inside numbers for two units each.
If an Inside number is our main active Don't leave it as is.
If an Inside number is our hedged DP (Placed) add a unit to that Place bet hedge.
Remember if both the DP and DC are hedged Inside numbers we have already ceased betting and are awaiting the outcome.

If our main non-hedged Don’t is lost we remove all Place bets except those with a specified hedge amount and await the outcome.
If a non-hedged two unit Inside number Place bet wins we collect the winnings and regress that number and its sister 1 unit even if sister is hedged.
If a Placed hedged DP or DC hits lock up winnings and leave number uncovered.
On second winning non-hedged Inside Place hit collect winnings and come down on all Place bets except those with a specified hedge amount and ride out hand.

That's the mechanical version and starting amounts but there are adjustments one could and should make based on observation and analysis. They needn't be huge but they save money at times and make a little more money at times and to be fair they may lose more at times but I guess that's why it's called gambling.

Such mechanical testing shows whether a method has any legs and maybe how much muscle but it’s still mechanical without human observation of the shooter and associated variables. I mean you could run anyone’s basic method concept through hundreds of thousands of rolls with absolute precision but that wouldn’t be an accurate reflection of how all those rolls would be actually played in live action at a casino. An RNG doesn’t tire, or show any reaction to various interferes, or adapt to any individuality visible in different shooters.

I know many don’t believe in charting and trends and that’s fine but are the choices of such players sometimes affected by what they’re observing? I think yes and that adjustments are made from their original strategy method whatever it may be in response even if it’s just for a limited number of shooters here and there.

Any method’s test results from mechanical testing regardless of how many rolls will be at best suggestive and certainly not conclusive.

Now having said that I think such testing does help in a general way. The analysis of the results shows where each methods strengths and weaknesses are so some can be discarded and others fine tuned for those specific table conditions. Easier to play a method if you have faith in its ability to make money and to know when to start and stop using it.

I'm thinking I should buy WinCraps.

Good luck on the project.

Kelph

[Moe Bettor]

Interested in casino unbalanced dice strategy. As I understand it the unbalanced dice come out on the weekends in Vegas. Any thoughts on this?

[London Shooter]

Yes, only play weekends. You will soon be rich if the above is true.

[heavy]

Just a heads up - I will not discuss the biased dice conspiracy theory on the public portion of the forum, other than to state that the individuals promoting this theory have no understanding of statistical analysis and are talking largely from anecdotal evidence. They have no empirical evidence to support their theories and logic precludes acceptance of them. I will start a thread on the members-only section of the forum on this topic and give you additional thoughts.