What about that "see a horn - bet a horn" strategy?

[heavy]

"See a horn - bet a horn" was around a long time before I ever spoke these words. Contrary to what some prople say, I don't teach this as a strategy. However, I've made so much money at it through the years that often the truth gets blurred.

Let's take a look at that series I mentioned a few weeks ago when I was ramping up for Biloxi:

Assuming $5 on the line and $5 World. Here was my come out series:

11 - World pays $11 - Press World to $10 and lock up $6
3 - World pays $22 - Press to $20 and lock up $12 - $18 locked up = $13 profit for series
11 - World pays $33 - Press to $50 and lock up $3 - $16 profit for the series

At this point I opted to change my set to the 6-5 5-6 variant of the straight sixes

2 - pays $290 - press to $100 - lock up $190 - profit for series $206
11 - pays $220 - press to $200 - lock up $120 - $326 profit for series
10 - point established - lost $200 on prop action versus $326 profit for series.

Sometimes it just works out that way.

After establishing the 10 as the point I switched to the V-2 with 6-4 5-5. Tossed the 9, 6, 9, 11, 7 out.

Now let's talk about what happened there. On the first three tosses I was setting the V-3. On all three of those tosses I double pitched the dice into an eleven or an ace-deuce. Obviously there was something going wrong with my toss. It was something that needed attention. But I am of the opinion that, like a good golfer, you have to play to your slice (or hook or whatever issue you have with your swing). So rather than try to "fix" the double pitch at the table - I bet that it's going to happen again. In this example, the result was a substantially pressed up bet plus a small profit after three tosses. At which point I decided to attempt to maximize my return by adjusting my set - but not changing my grip or throw. I set the 6-1 up and the 5-2 facing and double pitched myself into a two-craps. Then I single pitched my way to another eleven. Finally, I double pitched myself to a point - the ten. End result - $326 profit for the series.

Does this strategy work out this well all the time? Absolutely not. That's why, should you decide you want to play prop-game strategies, you should dedicate a very small portion of your bankroll to it and not chase it.

Generally speaking, I'll limit my "see a horn" play to shooters who are obviously attempting to influence the outcome of the roll. My assumption is if they have a flaw in their toss that generates trash numbers - then there's a good chance that it is an ingrained flaw - learned through hours of improper practice - and that this flaw will continue to reveal itself in streaks of trash. There's gold in those trash heaps. You just have to know how to find it.

Do I suggest you go out and immediately start playing this way? No. But it might be fun to stick a small notepad in your pocket and track in-casino rolls - looking for instances where it might have paid off. In the end you may start to see things differently.

[Mad Professor]

There is one particular table in one particular casino which I play at quite frequently; where I have fully adopted the "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" approach for my own shooting.

When the H-numbers start to roll in on this particular table; they usually come in closely-grouped clumps that can go on for quite some time...often running into strings of three or four H-numbers, and occassionally running all the way to five, six, or even seven Horn-numbers in a row.

My only regret is that my "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" proficiency on other tables, is nowhere close to that...even on neighboring tables at the same joint. So any effort to make that approach net-accretive elsewhere, has been met with a marked lack of success. In it's stead, I've adopted the delayed-trigger Field-Harvest, where I wait for two consecutive F-numbers before I commence wagering on the 'meadow'.


MP

[heavy]

Yep, there used to be a table like that at the old Sheraton in Tunica many many years ago. I suspect that table got sunk in the Mississippi when the Harrah's folks got rid of it.

[Mad Professor]

When I first wrote the forerunner-article of my Turning 'Trash' Into Treasure series back in 19-OhMiGaaawd-ago; I was a staunch opponent of H’s "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" approach for many of the reasons he outlined above. However, over the years I’ve mellowed in my opinion about it…even to the point of profitably embracing it if adequate advantage-validity is there (such as on that specific Horn-heavy table I mentioned above).


Has Heavy’s "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" approach (sometimes intentionally) been mis-characterized by his detractors?

Sure, absolutely, without a doubt.

Is there merit in the "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" approach if you’ve got an adequately-validated advantage over it?

Yes, absolutely, without a doubt.

Do I think you should you avoid the "See-a-Horn/Bet-a-Horn" approach if you don’t have an adequately-validated advantage over it?

Yes, absolutely, without a doubt.

~If you have an advantage, then bet it in a compelling and economically-meaningful way.

~If you don’t have an edge; then you are back into negative-expectation play…and so, over a reasonable number of random-outcome trials; you should expect to lose more than you win.

Again, that’s what advantage-play dice-influencing is all about.


MP

[heavy]

A lot of these sessions have sort of blurred though the years, despite their memorability. You old timers will probably say "here we go again." The essential facts of the sessions are correct, although I may have miffed a little detail due to that old-timer's disease. Here goes.

A few years back I was on the way to Orlando with the family. We used several different casinos along the way to and from the Sunshine State for comped rooms as opposed to spending our hard-earned vacation cash. But I believe in giving my hosts a shot at my bankroll so I played at least one session at every property.

In a session I played at our first stop I tossed six consecutive twelves on the come out. I started out with a $10 line bet - a $5 World plus a $2 high/low and pressed it the World/High/Lo $7 on each hit. The pay offs were $55, $110, $165, $220, $275, and $330 - a total just under $1500 won on the come-out series versus $60 in line bet losses. You know what I remember thinking at the time? I should have parlayed the first hit. Just about every player at the table lost $50 - $60 on that Come Out series. They had no clue why the dealer kept paying me all of those green chips while the boxman inspected the dice after every toss. Memo to self - remember to chart for trends.

The second night out was spent at the old Grand Casino in Gulfport, which was located where the Island View property is now. Back then what is now Island View was owned by the Copa and was a sweaty locals barge parked next door. Now, this tale has absolutely nothing to do with See a Horn - Bet a Horn. It simply adds a little validity to the observation that my toss was really "ON" that week.

Anyway, I got up to play an early bird session before hitting the road. I had the table to myself and was roughly an hour and a half into a hand when the electricity went off. It was off for about twenty minutes. The lights came on and the hand continued. Other players wandered up to the table, bought in and played a bit. Then they colored up and left while the hand continued, complaining that they wanted to SHOOT the dice, not just bet. (OBJECT LESSON - Would you rather shoot the dice or win?) Another forty-five minutes or so later the electricity went off a second time. To be honest with you, I was much amused by the entire affair. Pulled up a stool and shot the shit with the dealers while waiting for the lights to come back in. The boxman even offered to return all of my bets to me and let me walk away if I wished. Nah. Let's finish the hand. So, when the lights came back on I played out my hand. The entire thing stretched to over three hours. I think is was around three hours and forty minutes. The exact number doesn't matter. Just know that I went a hell of a long time between sevens that session. BTW, the family had been waiting patiently in our room for over three hours, all dressed up and waiting for me to take them to breakfast. I don't care how much you win - it's still cold in the doghouse. Especially on vacation. Lesson? Always make sure the bride knows you may be longer than expected - and if so - that's a good thing.

On our way back to Texas from Florida we spent the night at one of WC's favorite haunts in Vicksburg. At my session there I tossed aces back to back to back to back - four consecutive times - on the come out series. Nope, I did not repeat the six in a row feat from a week earlier. And can you guess what I thought to myself after that one? I wished I had remember to get my first World/Hi-Low bet in. I'd bet the Pass Line only, so I was down $10. I did not miss out on the next toss, but was only able to capitalize on three of the four hits. And no, I didn't parlay the first hit on the aces either. I'd completely forgotten the lesson learned in Shreveport/Bossier.

Why do I tell you all this? Beats the hell out of me. I guess I'm in a "war story" kind of mood tonight.

The first time I met Elephant Tracks and the original Nickel Midnight from the old board was over in Bossier City. I believe Hinduman might have been along on that occasion as well. The guys wanted to get an idea about what a controlled toss looked like. In the middle of my hand I tossed an unexpected twelve. I immediately turned my place bets off and tossed out a $4 Horn. It hit. I pressed it. It hit again. I pressed it again. It hit again. This went on, as I recall, for something like seven tosses. I definitely remember the looks I got from the other players as the chips kept sliding across the felt. They thought I was wasting bullets. I thought "this is fun."

I think my buddy Wild Child will tell a similar tale about our first adventure over in Shreveport the day after we first met. The Eleven was the number of the day on that occasion and we both cleaned up on it.

The best, though, was a hand tossed by a gal known as Dice Chick back around 2004. This was one night at the Golden Nugget and we owned the table. Dice Chick set for and threw horn numbers on the Come Out. That night she tossed (Irish - you may have to help me) either twelve or thirteen consecutive horn numbers on the Come Out. Thirteen sounds good, but I'm leaning toward twelve. Oh yeah, we had the dealers on the horn as well. They were still talking about it 24 hours later.

Anyway, the bottom line on this subject for me is pretty straight-forward. I've won so much money with this "follow the trend" kind of play through the years that I (personally) don't see any particular reason to stop. Is the vig on this action significant? You bet. Would John Patrick cringe over me talking about this? Hell yeah. In fact, I've had that lecture from John personally. And he's absolutely correct. As are you. That's why I do NOT teach people this strategy. With that said, a lot of guys who have followed me around the tables through the years swear by it.

[SHOOTITALL]

I'm with H and MP: I feel very strongly both ways

[heavy]

Damn, SIA. Just checking that time-stamp on your post. You're up almost as late as me. This getting old shit sucks.

[Dylanfreake]

Back in the day , I would watch vowels make himself and the dealers happy with horn bet presses at Horseshoe Tunica.

Where the hell is vowels?

[rollinbones]

What set are you using on the come out?

I use the 6/5 on top 5/6 in front. Seems I throw as many 7's as horns with it. Perhaps a change is do?

Thnx.

ps good stories btw. Love the doghouse reference

[heavy]

Yeah, you nailed it. 6/5 5/6 permutation of the straight sixes set. I observe the results - single pitch, double pitch, whatever, and adjust from there. And yes, often I'll end up setting 6/1 5/2 and double pitching into aces or twelve.

DF - that Vowels was a prop-betting fool. He'd have a couple of hundred bucks out there, working on the come out, all cross hedged and hopped up to the point that the most he could lose was a couple of bucks. What this accomplished was getting rated as the kind of craps player casinos love, which got him free rooms and food and more wherever he went. By the way, that strategy was one of Leonard Benson's brain children. (Yeah, he's had more than one)

[rollinbones]

cool thanks.

fwiw - if i've bet the horn and won, I ALWAYS press. Figure it's paid for itself and given me some profit. It's a beatuiful thing when that 3rd in a row hits. Don't think I've ever hit 4 in a row though

[wild child]

.
H

That was a classic stop on the banks of the Red River City ( zip coce 71111 )

As I recall ,there was a Poltry Feeder who tossed the folk tale " Second Roll Yo "

Heavy and I were yucking it up with the BOX Lady and crew and racking up a rail full of chips.
The Poltry Feeder eventually busted out and walked off ... Had I been a bit more astute , me thinks just a few chips in his dierction would have kept that party going on and on........... Some folks stay unaware of their own signature and never adapt to exploiting it........Thanks for the memories.....W C

[Mad Professor]

Just as we have to occassionally credit Ausound for the term "dice-influencer", and Maddog for "Pattern of Influence"; we now should recognize WildChild for coining the term "poultry-feeder".


MP

[heavy]

It was also Wild Child who imported the phrase "WIN WIN WIN - PAY PAY PAY" into my vocabulary. (I'm not sure if I'm giving him the credit or the blame)

[Golfer]

You got it Heavy. I use the stright 6's with the 6's or 1's on top and see what happens. If the double pitch switch is on I'm gonna be hoping the red like crazy. If feeling adventurous, I will go with the 6-1 on top and try for the aces or midnight. When you get a mini-streak going of 3-6 hits in a row it can fill the rails quickly. Make your point and you get to do it all over again. Funny, some of my best horn/red streaks have come after 2 or 3 points made. Must be a confidence thing.


Hop the Red!

Golfer

[heavy]

LOL. Somewhere our old pal Scoblete is scribbling furiously, getting ready to sell a new article about the Internet dice guy who teaches people to make stupid bets. Not guilty.

[heavy]

As long as I'm talking about the Horn Bet I may as well revive this discussion from way back in 2012, which I posted shortly after the famous gaming author penned an article for a major gaming magazine whining about the "internet craps guru" who taught people stupid bets like "see a horn - bet a horn." Not guilty - said I. But . . .

[Gent86]

When I see a horn bet a horn and hit a few and I switch to 6-5 5-6 I place an equal bet on field to hedge the world bet. If a shooter is tossing field numbers and hits a horn I’ll bet a horn hi yo with an extra unit on the ace deuce and hedge with the field. Works pretty well most of the time if the shooter is throwing lots of no fields I’ll skip it all together.

[heavy]

I like that play. My old pal Roadrunner used to use a similar play from time to time. He also liked "see a horn - bet a field" then parlay the field win to the horn. It's surprising how often you get three horn numbers in a row.