Next Powerball - $1.3 Billion? Who's in?

[heavy]

Many years ago an Italian woman from Tuscany leaped into the ocean and drowned herself after betting and losing her family’s life savings on the number fifty-three in the Italian lottery. The Italian lottery offers bets on numbers between 1 and 90 in its twice-weekly drawings. Fifty numbers are pulled in each drawing, so the odds of the elusive fifty-three appearing seemed quite good. But number fifty-three had not been drawn for over two years. Wagering on it had become a national obsession as bettors with a skewed view of probability theory wagered, and lost, more than $3.5 billion Euros chasing the scarce number. A few lost much more.

The law of probability essentially states that if the probability of a given outcome to an event is “P” and the event is repeated “N” times, then the larger “N” becomes, the greater the likelihood that the proportional outcome of the occurrence will equal the outcome of “N*P.

Before your eyes glaze over, let’s look at an example based on something we all understand. The probability of throwing a twelve with two dice is 1/36. Someone may toss the dice a hundred times and not toss a twelve. But the more times we throw the dice the closer the results will eventually come to 1/36. Closer – but not equal to.

Let’s look at the old familiar coin-flip as another example. If you flip a coin 100 times and it lands on heads 60 times and tails 40 times tails, many gamblers believe that tails is now “due” to get even. Most gamblers call this the Due Number Theory. Mathematicians know it as the Maturity of Chances Theory. The gambler’s much-anticipated “streak” of tails is known as a “corrective.” Gamblers expect the corrective to bring the total number of tails tossed equal to the number of heads. The belief is that the “law of averages” really is a law, which states that in the longest of long runs the totals of both heads and tails will eventually become equal. This belief is, of course, wrong.

When dealing with number of tosses as opposed to percentages, it is easy to become confused. Sometimes what you believe is a logical outcome is completely opposite of statistical reality. For example, in the above example it is true that as the number of tosses gets larger, it is more likely that the percentage of heads and tails thrown will approach 50% each. But the difference between the actual number of heads or tails thrown will probably get larger.

Say what?

Okay, let’s take another look at our example of 60 heads and 40 tails in 100 coin tosses, and imagine that the next 100 tosses result in 56 heads and 44 tails. The ‘corrective’ has set in, as the percentage of heads has now dropped from 60 per cent to 58 per cent. But there are now 32 more heads than tails, where there were only 20 before. The ‘law of averages’ follower who backed tails is 12 more tosses to the bad. If the third hundred tosses result in 52 heads and 48 tails, the ‘corrective’ is still proceeding, as there are now 168 heads in 300 tosses. 56% of the tosses resulted in heads, down from 58% after the last set of tosses. But the tails backer is now 36 tosses behind. In each case, the percentage difference got smaller, but the number of heads tossed versus tails continued to increase.

You’ve all heard the old saying, “the dice have no memory.” In fact, chance events are not influenced by the events that have gone before. If a true die has not shown the 6 for 36 throws, the probability of a 6 is still 1/6 on the 37th throw. This offends the gambler’s instinct in a lot of us, but it is still true. The ability to recognize and capitalize on this over the long run is what separates gamblers and advantage players. The gambler’s mind has difficulty coping with the seemingly contradictory laws of probability. The advantage player looks at the statistical proof, plans his play and plays his plan. To the guy who stands at the dice table, waits for eighteen consecutive rolls without a twelve, and then plays a midnight martingale it all makes perfect sense. The lady in Tuscany believed in the Due Number Theory so strongly that it ultimately cost her everything, including her life. Sadly, she was not the first person on record who took her life after losing everything. Nor will she be the last.

The real question boils down to this. Do you want to gamble or do you want to win?

[mssthis1]

The saddest thing is there will be a mind boggling amount of money spent on lottery tickets this week and last week that should of been spent on a warm jacket for the kids, groceries or the electric bill due next week.

[Markm3]

What's wrong with the first answer from the guy on TV.."Coke and Hookers in Vegas" ....LOL, just kidding!!

[heavy]

Piggybacking on the coat thine mssthis1 mentioned - every year (after Christmas) when the stores start to close out their coats to make room for Spring fashion my bride buys around a dozen coats and jackets and stores them until the following fall, when she donates them to the local coat drive for underprivileged kids. You guys who want to do something might keep that in mind.

Back on the Powerball - I like the idea of endowing one charity. Ours would be St. Jude Children's Hospital. I've done a number of fund-raisers for them here on the site through the years and it's the one charity my wife and I always come back to.

[Tgold]

HI all.
I saw this post a couple days ago and actually went online to research the Lottos' next drawing day. I typically don't purchase a lotto ticket(as I usually hear about it the next day after the fact). After showing Heavys post to my wife she surprisingly responds: "Why don't you buy us some tomorrow".

I just stopped at a convenience store on the way home this evening (they informed me they don't sell lotto tickets but gave directions to one that does). I now realize WHY my wife delegated the chore to yours truly.
Good grief--approximately 20 others had the same idea. It probably took about 15 minutes to fill out the tiny number bubble spots on each /every single entry as I had the grand idea that I could just verbalize my numbers to the clerk since it was basically a wheel/ mostly the same repeating numbers.
Not so as the clerk said she could but preferred to just scan each card. I finally just went out to my car to finish. After, I go back inside the line is about 10-15, and I hear a guy asking the clerk if he could pick one number and let the computer choose every other one????After the clerk spent 3 minutes explaining why this couldn't be done the line finally started moving. So finally the task was completed.

Typically IF I even buy a lotto ticket its only after it reaches 300-400 million and usually only 1 ticket. However, I decided to go for it since this one is 1.3billion or whatever, and plus my wife agreed to split the purchase of 26 tickets for my guaranteed-to-win platinum package Lotto strategy .

Purchased 26 tickets so I could wheel all the powerball numbers with one of my other "hot" numbers around the others.
So I know I've won the red powerball # tonight. Now all I need are the other 5/69 white ball numbers to show.
I've concluded my $52 Lotto investment would have been better spent on a 6pt Firebet wager.

What will I do with the half billion net proceeds:
Remain anonymous will be my first goal, and attempt to keep life the same. Easier said then done Im sure.



Good luck to all,
Tgold

[Tgold]

Well my guaranteed-to-win lotto strategy above WON. I had the powerball /one other number for a monster win of $4 dollars on a $52 investment. Not so good.
Oh well, maybe I can parlay the $4 on all the hardways and recover.

All the best,
Tgold

[SHOOTITALL]

We did good. Hit 3 numbers for a $7.00 payout, leaving a net loss $13.00. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

[Knick111]

Greetings SHOOTITALL,

I played by telephone at my local powerball store.
I played a $ 3 dollar Wheel with the red numbers, 4 times [ 78x4.]
Thursday morning he came over and collected his money. He told me he sold a $100,000 price and is expecting a good tip.

Hit the first number, number 8. won 4 dollars. 4x2.
Better luck next time SHOOTITALL. Jaime.

[Bankerdude80]

The first couple that stepped forward to claim a third of the prize were foolish. They claim to be simple, but simple shouldn't mean stupid. Now that they are identified to the public and continue to live in the same domain, they will be deluged by "victims", scammers, and wolves in sheep's clothing. No army of lawyers will be able to keep the denizens back. They will harass this family to no end until they are forced to go into seclusion. Their example is the way to have your "ducks" in a row. NOT!!!