How Would Your Bet on a $300 Buy In

[heavy]

We had a lot of interest in our "How would you bet a $100 buy-in" thread, so I thought I'd bump it up to a number that I see more frequently among our Axis Power Craps players - a $300 buy in. In theory you shouldn't risk more than 10% of your bankroll on any one shooter, so if that holds true you wouldn't want to bet more than $30 per shooter. I'll toss in the caveat that this is a $5 - 3x4x5x game we're talking about. So you tell me. You don't HAVE to stick with that $30 per shooter number - it's just a suggestion. So how would you play it?

[heavy]

Ah. Nobody wants to go first. Okay, I'll give you an idea. $90 DP. Establish a point. Place the six and eight for $90 each. One hit and down. Wait for a decision. Who else wants to contribute?

[SHOOTITALL]

Dang H, that play looks familiar.
Same except $10 $12 $12
Transition if a hand starts to develop.

[London Shooter]

I have several ideas which spring to mind where I will try and make plays that risk around the 10% of the bank mark on each shooter:

1. $5 DP with $24 odds regardless of the number. Only lose one bet per shooter. Classic DF play. $29 risk per shooter.

2. $18 each on the 6 and 8. Drop $3 and go to $42 on the first hit on each number. Collect $50 for 1 thereafter until the sun comes up. Strap yourself in for a very volatile ride here on your $300 bankroll. $36 risked initially plus a further possibility of 2 x $3 in pressing so $42 max per shooter.

3. My Manfred Mann 5-4-3-2-1 play. Start with $12 each 6 and 8. This drops to $6 6 and 8 after two hits in the required number of rolls and bets down if no hits on the final few rolls. This actually can work well on a shortish bankroll and has regression and "take me down" points built in. Expect to be anywhere between +100 and -$100 on average over a session of 10 shooters. $24 risked per shooter.

4. $5 all small OR all tall only. (I usually play the small as it contains two craps number). Chances are you have to have action on passline or DP as well, so place $5 passline - reload ATS if you want from any 7s on comeout. My choice is just once, but each to their own. Once point is established either do $5 odds or place sister number for $5. When two numbers have been covered on your ATS play, make a $10 DC, followed by a $5 DC. A lot of time this play can pretty much cancel itself out and end in a wash, small loss or small win. Basically you are hoping for a nice hit on the ATS or even the ability to lay the final number if the missing link is a box number. You may even be in good position to press up and out on the right kind of hand if points and sisters keep being made, though usually this hand will have knocked off your DCs as well.
Either way your max risk usually is $5 ATS + $5 passline +$5 Odds (or sister) + $10 DC = $25 if the 7 comes right after you place your first DC and there have been no other paying hit. You can of course end up losing more on a shooter if the roll starts with one or more craps numbers and you reload passline a couple of times, but of course often a craps number can get you off to a nice start on your ATS

So the above list has plays for both sides of the game. Some conservative stuff, some rollercoaster ride stuff and even a lowish-risk bonus bet chaser play.

Who says you never learn anything from reading posts on this site?

[$5Bill]

Thanks Shootitall for reminding me.
I was just on my out to the boat when I read your play. I was going to do my Don’t Come which I did but I tried your $10 Don’t with a $12, 6 and 8 a few times and it worked out great. I didn’t stay long and won $53+.

$5Bill

[Bankerdude80]

You didn't mention how many other players were at the table. I guess I won't bet on any of them, just myself. (yeah like that's gonna happen). I assume this is Heavy's perfect casino, so it works here. No bets on the randies first time out. Trend the table and qualify shooters by box numbers and points tossed. When ready for randies, ease in with $5PL and one $6 six or eight. My turn shooting, so I'll bet $5PL parlaying any come-out wins. I'll place bet all even numbers ($22). One come bet and off to the races. I'm not yet comfortable with any regression strategies right out of the box, so fairly conservative. Building up as the numbers roll, pressing PL odds with place bet wins to 3x4x5x max. Then, regressing place bets (back to $10 or $12) one time--- once I get to green chips. $5 Fire bet or $2-$1-$2 on the ATS. I'll modify the play based on how my toss is doing and table conditions. If table is trending cold I'll play DP and two DC at table minimum, modifying as needed. I won't stay long, stop loss at $200. Ladder up my win targets.

[London Shooter]

I just thought of another which sits well in the risk 10% of your bankroll territory:
5. lay 180 across on come out rolls only - max risk $30 per bet

[acpa]

When played at Tunica every week when I lived in Arkansas, I had $5 tables and on myself I would start at $5 pass line bet, double odds and $6 6/8 for a total of $29. If point was 6 or 8 $5 with double odds and $12 on the sister number.

Noah

[KenK2]

For now, I am only going to bet on myself which TBH has been going pretty well with my new practice rig.. I will post some pics in another thread.. However..

For me in wincraps as of late, its
$50PL and $100 odds
$25 on the 5, 9 and 10
$30 on the 6 and 8
Let it Ride!!!
I either get to about $1,400 by parlaying the 9 about 3 times then regress. I hit a ton of 9's with my HW set for some reason...
OR, I crap out on roll 4...

[heavy]

Okay, make this a $5 game - 3-4-5X odds - first buy on the four and ten are free. This is a game readily available in Vegas. $300 Buy In.

$5 Pass Line
After point is established start out with double odds. We'll progress the odds on subsequent wins in Dice Doctor fashion. $10 odds, $15 odds, $20 odds, $25 odds, etc., assuming that fits withing table limits. When you hit table limits on your free odds increase the PL bet $5 - $7 - $10 - $12 - $15 - $20 - $25. Simple enough. We're looking for a streak on the right side.

If that streak is not forthcoming then go to the Don'ts and run a similar progression on successive wins.

If you're going to bet the right side under the above conditions I'd limit myself to $12 each on the six and eight, $5 in the Come and go with no more than 2 come bets. Bring down the six and eight after one hit. If the come travels to them start out with single odds. If they come down - place them back then make a subsequent Come bet.

Good grief, for something that's really pretty simple that's looking awfully muddy. Well, you get the general drift. At any time when you have more than $50 on the table you need to think in terms of getting some $$ off the table.

[dicesetter]

Heavy


The vast majority of the time I make money on my roll or I don't make it
at all. For that reason I wont play on a full or almost full table.

Having said that, I have also had my butt saved by another shooter.

I start with 1 come bet and odds, and I don't make another
bet until I hit that or the shooter makes his number and then I place
a pass line bet. If I get some hits I play it out, If I make some decent
money I am more likely to regress at some point to bank roll the
profit I did not expect to make in the first place.

Since I am the one that does the practicing and recording of my data
it makes no sense at all to go to the table and bet the same on others
as I do on myself, or lose part of my bank roll before I even get the dice.

dicesetter

[heavy]

I agree, dicesetter. Your play is not unlike my "I'll be a table minimum six and eight on every shooter that touches the dice." Yeah, it's a negative expectation bet, but sometimes those randies light 'em up. Meanwhile, most of my action is reserved for betting on my own hands, where I expect to make money every time. Doesn't always happen - but I expect it to nonetheless.