Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

[dave716aceduece]

If your just flat betting the DP for $15 followed by one DC for $10 (having a limited br of $300) is it advantageous to lay JUST for the CO against the 4or10 for $41? Or does this fall under the hedges just eat your profit over time idea? Me having a limited br has been using this and find it very much helpful, feeling most of my previous losses came from getting killed on the CO....
As long as I keep strict about taking the lay down right after the CO I haven't been burned very often as its up for only one roll.... My loss limit is 250 and win goal is 100

[London Shooter]

Dave, the lay the 4 or 10 is not a play I would make there. I can understand it, I know some people do it, but if you have a $300 bankroll and are worried about hedging $15 DP bets then you need to re-evaluate why you are having a $15 DP. The hedges will cost you money overall and a couple of $41 whacks on a $300 bankroll sure will take a large chunk of your action %age wise which will feel a lot worse than losing a DP to a 7 or 11.

I find playing DP and DC tough at times due to the CO losses, but realistically you have to accept this is the danger part of the bet and once cleared you are now odds on but will get paid even money. If the shooter has established the 6 or 8 as the point, at that stage you still have a strong advantage, 5 or 9 better and 4 or 10 you will have a smile on your face.

Probably better to just stick with the old classic "no shooter beats me twice" mantra followed by so many on the dont's, or maybe you reload once at that level then just wait for the next shooter. Chasing a 7,7,7,11,7 come out string will send you to despair for sure.

[dave716aceduece]

Thanks London, I appreciate your response and good advice... I'm definitely not a chase type of player, probably more of a parlay the first win type. Thanks again, your guys knowledge and experience can't be found anywhere else imo

[advdel77]

rather than laying 4 or 10 for $40, just hop the 7's for $3. on come out rolls I hop the 7's for $6, just because it seems a lot of 7's are rolled on the come out. it pays me $26 and I remain up for the next roll. its just one of those bets I like to do, like some people do C & E, horn bet, or whirl bet.advdel77

[London Shooter]

It's a serious question - if you have the DP why do you need to hedge? You know long term the hedge is costing you money, so why not just suck it up and have the bet, naked, no ifs, no buts, just accept it for what it is?

[Cap-n_Lou]

I only hedge on the CO if I've been playing the don't on a chilly table and someone new to the game gets the dice. I figure they think the 7 is good and they are hoping for it because it's an instant winner. In that case it seems that more 7s are rolled on the come out but I'm sure it's statistically not the case. But I'm only there for a sliver of the statistical timeframe so I'll sometimes toss out a hop 7. I'm probably not in the black on that bet over time but it makes me feel smart so I do it. But that's the only time I'll hedge. Otherwise I agree with London Shooter that over time you are better off just holding your breath on the come out and jumping up and down inside when the 4 or 10 comes up as the point.

[Cap-n_Lou]

Got to add though that I do like laying the 4 and/or 10 only on the come out sometimes when I'm not betting the line, it's sort of a hedge and it works for me when lots of CO 7s are being tossed.

[heavy]

So now that we've gone back and forth reinventing the wheel, can one of you take charge and summarize this usable negative progression in a single post?

PS. I still like a Fibonacci progression based on SIA's One hit - can't miss play.

[Dark Side]

I still like a Fibonacci progression based on SIA's One hit - can't miss play.

I have looked every where on the forums for this and can not find it. Does anyone have an idea where it might be?

Thank you in advance.

DS

[heavy]

Oh yeah. I remember that summary now.

[flextimeLV]

Ditto Heavy's 2nd to last comment. Can we get an NFL replay?

[heavy]

How about this thread for those of you interested in a bunch of systems. There are links in there that will take you to some other sites, but these are actually worth the trip.

viewtopic.php?t=2995

[mssthis1]

Hey Irish: If you were running a three tiered negative progression like I have been and a shooter set a point, made that point, and then set that same point again would you go ahead and take the odds or leave the flat with no odds and wait for a resolution before continuing the progression?

I'm struggling with a good answer for this one as you have to believe a random shooter for whatever reason may not be random if you decide to not take odds. On the other side of the coin, I've seen random shooters pound one number in the past.

[mssthis1]

I was thinking DP, but DC would be a similar scenario. The shooter has tossed the same number 3 times in either case.

[heavy]

Running a negative progression on odds on the Don'ts just doesn't work in my book. You can overload your bankroll too quickly. A negative progression on odds on the right side, however, works fine for me.

[mssthis1]

Believe it or not I'm risking less money and actually winning on random shooters, since I started playing pretty much don't only with odds on random shooters. I have only had one losing session, which was in Vegas, when two shooters tossed 3 pass line points in close succession. The nice thing about Vegas is, it's easy to find another table which is what I did.

Only 1 random shooter in 15 will toss 3 pass line points on average.

If you currently bet $54.00 across or something similar on Randies, the single don't bet with $30.00 odds is a much stronger bet. If you don't press and don't regress, you need 6 or 7 box number hits to equal the amount you will win on the single don't bet.

[Dark Side]

Except for the string of PSO's a DP strategy probably would have worked better. Nobody was repeating any numbers except for the 5 and there was a lot of comeout sevens. During the entire period there was only one craps winner on the DP comeout and at least 10, seven or eleven losers.

You can always replace the dominant number (in this case the 5), by placing another DC letting it travel and pulling the dominant number down. Of course, I'm certain you have already thought about this.

Would you play multiple DC's or a single number?

Seems to me like multiple numbers would be suicide.

DS

[mssthis1]

Since I'm just looking for a simple low volatility way to have some action while waiting for the dice to cycle back to me I only play a single number at this point.

I've considered making a DC and no odds if dominate number is set but so far I haven't run into a table where a dominate number was knocking me off enough times to fret about it. I'd probably switch tables or switch to the pass side first.


Could someone refresh my memory on how SIA's one hit, can't miss works? Of all things I was thinking about that while mowing the yard and SIA's system with a slowly tiered progression might be the cats meow.

[Dark Side]

The single number makes sense. I typically play a the DP and one DC, moving away from the dominant number by placing a second DC, letting it travel, then pulling down the dominant number bet. If the table gets cold I increase my DC to 2 possibly 3 numbers and increase my odds.

If you find SIA's one hit, please let me know. I've been looking for that sucker every where on this board.

[heavy]

We've talked about SIA's one-hit can't-miss on many different threads. In a nutshell, it's any size DP bet combined with equally sized place bets on the six and eight. For example. Play $12 on the DP. Once the point is established you Place the six and eight for $12 each - regardless of what the point is. If you get one hit on the six or eight you cannot lose for that hand. Just stand back and collect subsequent hits.