Let's develop a useable negative progression for the don't

[SHOOTITALL]

Here are a couple:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4322&p=58635#p58635
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=261&p=58039#p58039

Now, let's add a bit here as Heavy and I worked some on this DC progression.
(he likes the fibo on this series)
Here, if you lose on the CO and want to recover, you can go up a unit or two with no downside excepted the initial exposure to the CO wins.
1. $5 dp, $6 6/8
2. $10 dp, $12 6/8
3. $18 dp, $18/6/8
ect.
In each example, one hit washes the board and contributes to lessening the former CO loss.
So, you lost two CO in a row. Boy, are you unlucky.
Then, at 3. $18 dp, $18 6/8, one hit lessens the CO loss of $15 by $3.00. Two hits and you are in high cotton.
Now, MP as given me permission before to use this so I will assume (my bad) that is still in effect:
(keep in mind this has absolutely nothing to do with a CO winner. MP also has those stats)

The chance of a random-roller making multiple Point-winners in a row is as follows:

Ø There is a 40% chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point. (I assume again this includes naturals)

Ø There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.

Ø There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 1.2% chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row.

Ø There is a 0.5% chance that a player will eventually make six PL-Points in a row.

These numbers have been rounded-off, and were kindly provided by Mike Shackleford (The Wizard of Odds) and Alan Krigman (Winning Ways).

[220Inside]

How do you work the One Hit Can't Miss after the first hit as the roll continues? Perhaps a DC as you press the 6 and 8 or build out on the box numbers?

[SHOOTITALL]

However you want, personally, I am looking for a good, positive roll. This system is always one roll away from banging the right side.
For instance, you are playing $10-$12-$12: CO, $10 on DP. Point is 9. Place the 6/8 $12 each. Shooter rolls a 10, a 5, an 8. Press my 8 by $6 (Now $18) 6 is still $12. Shooter roll a 6, another $14, so press my 6 by $6 to 18. Shooter rolls a 9. Ah, shucks. Lose your DP.
THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT: Do I stay at $10 on the DP or go to $18 (or $20) or go naked?
Myself, I would stay at $10 because the CO is the most dangerous to this system.
Place the DP for $10. Shooter rolls a 7. Ah, shucks. DO YOU Replace it? Me NO, this is two losses on this shooter. Dealer, Pull my 6 and 8. You might do something different. You might now go naked on he DP OR
start in placing the DC for $10. When that travels, pull your place bet if it travels to one you have. Or pull the place bets down. Decisions, decisions. But you should have a good idea. Work it on WINCRAPS.

Now, we will rerun the last sinerio. ETC, Shooter rolls a 6 (Not the 9) Now, decision time: Rack the $21 or Place the 5 for $10 and rack $11? We will place the 5. The 5 rolls, so rack $9, press the 5 by $5 so now you have a $18 6, $18 8 and $15 5. You are transitioned. Now, get a hit, rack it, press one unit on a repeat. Then, if you want, can spread out again to the 4 and 10.
Again, whatever your comfort zone is, be there. After the first hit, you cannot lose. If the shooter goes PSO, you lose $14. Shooter goes P, 6, 7. You wash.
There is another option also: Another hit, place the 9 for $10, then if the 9 rolls, lose $10 on the DP but win $14 on the place bet. Ugly rolls, you lost everything but the DP, lose $56 but win $10.
There are so many variations to play after one hit. I suggest you hit your comfort zone and preplan what you want to do. (You do not want to: "Oh, Shiz, what do I do?" Plan for positive and negative results.

[Dark Side]

We've talked about SIA's one-hit can't-miss on many different threads. In a nutshell, it's any size DP bet combined with equally sized place bets on the six and eight. For example. Play $12 on the DP. Once the point is established you Place the six and eight for $12 each - regardless of what the point is. If you get one hit on the six or eight you cannot lose for that hand. Just stand back and collect subsequent hits.

Thank you.

DS

[Dylanfreake]

I like Irish`s general summary: discipline, hover around even, grind out smaller wins. That is my kind of a play.

[heavy]

Well, there you have several options. I'm a fan of SIA's play. However, I also like the Fibo. I'd play it slightly different that Irish. Requires a $600 buy in. Here is the sequence:

5 - 5 - 10 - 15 - 25 - 40 for the first level
25 - 25 - 50 - 75 - 125 - 200 for the second level

Bet the sequence until you win. Whatever your last bet was when you won - repeat that bet on the next game. If you win two in a row you revert to the first number in the sequence. Otherwise, you continue up the ladder.

[Dylanfreake]

I would run Heavy`s Pro-negression on Tier 1 as a same bet series ; and his Tier 2 Pro-negression as a parlay ("Cowtippin`") series.

[mssthis1]

Is 1.33 the correct number to use for the average number of rolls to set a point? I'm trying to calculate the cost of using a $10 pass line $15 don't pass to turn a $15.00 table into a $5.00 table.

[London Shooter]

mss - just calculate 1.4% (approx) on both bets for your cost

[mssthis1]

Hi London: I figured that out after I posted. Thanks.

[mssthis1]

Played for approx 2 hours last night at a place with 10X odds. $5.00 DP, $30.00 base odds bet. Went up $30.00 in odds on a loss, down on a win if I wasn't already at $30.00.

Buy in $500. Biggest bet $10 DP, $90.00 odds, two times. Profit $315.00, $15 to dealers.

Shortly after I arrived one of the don't regulars showed up. He was playing a $20-$40-60 negative progression flat only, no odds. If a point was made or 2 CO naturals he would switch the the DC. He bought in for $300 and was down $200 when I left. There was an abnormal amount of elevens tossed, especially on comeout rolls. All the other shooters were Randies.

[heavy]

No doubt the casino switched to the eleven biased dice as soon as the Don't players showed up.


Joke.

[mssthis1]

No doubt the casino switched to the eleven biased dice as soon as the Don't players showed up.


Joke.

Only one Heavy, only one. As we all know from the biased dice short bus experts, you only need to introduce one biased die to make more sevens occur.

[Dylanfreake]

If you know casinos are using biased dice all you have to do is wage a complaint to the Gaming Commission.

[mssthis1]

If you know casinos are using biased dice all you have to do is wage a complaint to the Gaming Commission.

We just be joking around, at least I am. When I make a statement like "an abnormal number of elevens rolled" It is only an observation from a small sample of rolls, not an accusation. It always balances out eventually.

[heavy]

There you go. Truth.

[larry@143]

irish,
tier one, if lose 5,5,10,25 and then Win35, do we go back to 5? we are now down 10 trying to win 5 bucks at a time. do i have it correct?

[Dylanfreake]

I`m just joking around also . Sometimes I think the casinos are doing something with the dice although I`m fairly certain they are not . One time I saw 7777 11 77 another time 11 11 11 2 7 11 12 7. I don`t think it was biased dice . I just think it was " anything can happen on a craps table".

Just like this Darkside strategy we are discussing . Sometime the DP is the better wager and sometime it is the DC. Sometime it is better to go naked . Sometimes it is better to lay odds. Who knows?

[larry@143]

sounds reasonable irish, fwiw here is my neg prog on the donts:
5 10 15 25 40 65 105 170
go up one on loss, win go back one step
two wins in a row go back to 5
any win lose win go back 3 steps, if win again go back to 5
rarely lose entire stake of 435. (but it does happen)
this is a slow grind.

[JB85]

Thought I would add in here...I've experimented with a number of don't progressions over the years. I've used one similar to what Heavy mentioned above for years which is the same strategy as DFs cow tippin. I use an 8 step progression. Have tried progressions from 6-10 and over the years settled on 8. At $5 per unit, the progression is 5,5,5,7,10,15,20,30....$97 at risk on the progression. If you want larger units, just multiply each bet by 2,3,4 etc. Win the first bet, continue to bet $5 or press if you happen to get a steak. Lose any bet and move to the next bet. The 2nd $5 bet on a win is same bet, not a parlay. All other wins are parlays. Any 2 win sequence go back to the initial bet. Wins start at $5 and gradually increase the deeper you get in the progression. So you win any time you win 2 consecutive bets or the first bet.

A few things....
1) If I lose the initial bet 5 times in a row, I start over, usually at a higher unit. On the $5 progression you are down $32 at that point, easy to recover from.
2) On the don't, 1 bet per shooter. This strategy is also effective on the right side. Obviously don't limit yourself to 1 bet per shooter on the passline.
3) As with any negative progression, wins tend to be smaller and losses larger. House still has the edge, but this is a low edge strategy that doesn't risk a lot of money and can be very effective. It's a great way to pass time waiting for the dice if you are stuck on a full table.
4) If you get "cycled"(lose the progression) I will most often bump it up to a $20 initial bet progression, until I recoup most or all of my losses and then go back down to a lower initial bet. If I get cycled twice, I'm done. You can also just start over with the same progression.
5) This strategy is straight drudgery. Very boring. Works best on a 1/2 full to full table, which I try to avoid if at all possible so I don't use this much any more.