ATS probabilities of completing

[London Shooter]

Numbers Hit Probability of completing Player EV (34 to 1) None 0.02635390925 -0.0776131763 6 0.03019480519 0.05681818182 5 0.03233678087 0.1317873303 56 0.03831168831 0.3409090909 4 0.03634453782 0.2720588235 46 0.04343989344 0.5203962704 45 0.04703629704 0.6462703963 456 0.05952380952 1.083333333 3 0.04518507808 0.5814777328 36 0.05461205461 0.9114219114 35 0.05930735931 1.075757576 356 0.07619047619 1.666666667 34 0.06785714286 1.375 346 0.08831168831 2.090909091 345 0.0974025974 2.409090909 3456 0.1428571429 4 2 0.07370717518 1.579751131 26 0.09032634033 2.161421911 25 0.09844322344 2.445512821 256 0.1287878788 3.507575758 24 0.1131427396 2.959995886 246 0.15 4.25 245 0.1660839161 4.812937063 2456 0.25 7.75 23 0.1446553447 4.062937063 236 0.1948717949 5.820512821 235 0.2164502165 6.575757576 2356 0.3333333333 10.66666667 234 0.2545454545 7.909090909 2346 0.4 13 2345 0.4545454545 14.90909091 23456 1 34

[London Shooter]

Hmmmm, well that didn't work at all

[luxlogs]

Looks like a Bad Bet to me.

[heavy]

Forum Chart Function Fail - shall henceforth be known as FCFF. I hate that damn feature. Note that Maddog has a formula in BT that includes the proper format. To me it's just too much of a pain in the ass to deal with. An optional solution is to put your chart together in Excel, save it as a pdf, and then post that as an attachment. I think pdf's will work as attachments. If not, there's software out there that will convert a pdf to a jpg. That'll work for sure.

[London Shooter]

[tr][td]Numbers Hit[/td][td]Probability of completing[/td][td]Player EV (34 to 1)[/td][/tr][tr][td]None[/td][td]0.026[/td][td]-0.078[/td][/tr][tr][td]6[/td][td]0.030[/td][td]0.057[/td][/tr][tr][td]5[/td][td]0.032[/td][td]0.132[/td][/tr][tr][td]56[/td][td]0.038[/td][td]0.341[/td][/tr][tr][td]4[/td][td]0.036[/td][td]0.272[/td][/tr][tr][td]46[/td][td]0.043[/td][td]0.520[/td][/tr][tr][td]45[/td][td]0.047[/td][td]0.646[/td][/tr][tr][td]456[/td][td]0.060[/td][td]1.083[/td][/tr][tr][td]3[/td][td]0.045[/td][td]0.581[/td][/tr][tr][td]36[/td][td]0.055[/td][td]0.911[/td][/tr][tr][td]35[/td][td]0.059[/td][td]1.076[/td][/tr][tr][td]356[/td][td]0.076[/td][td]1.667[/td][/tr][tr][td]34[/td][td]0.068[/td][td]1.375[/td][/tr][tr][td]346[/td][td]0.088[/td][td]2.091[/td][/tr][tr][td]345[/td][td]0.097[/td][td]2.409[/td][/tr][tr][td]3456[/td][td]0.143[/td][td]4.000[/td][/tr][tr][td]2[/td][td]0.074[/td][td]1.580[/td][/tr][tr][td]26[/td][td]0.090[/td][td]2.161[/td][/tr][tr][td]25[/td][td]0.098[/td][td]2.446[/td][/tr][tr][td]256[/td][td]0.129[/td][td]3.508[/td][/tr][tr][td]24[/td][td]0.113[/td][td]2.960[/td][/tr][tr][td]246[/td][td]0.150[/td][td]4.250[/td][/tr][tr][td]245[/td][td]0.166[/td][td]4.813[/td][/tr][tr][td]2456[/td][td]0.250[/td][td]7.750[/td][/tr][tr][td]23[/td][td]0.145[/td][td]4.063[/td][/tr][tr][td]236[/td][td]0.195[/td][td]5.821[/td][/tr][tr][td]235[/td][td]0.216[/td][td]6.576[/td][/tr][tr][td]2356[/td][td]0.333[/td][td]10.667[/td][/tr][tr][td]234[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]7.909[/td][/tr][tr][td]2346[/td][td]0.400[/td][td]13.000[/td][/tr][tr][td]2345[/td][td]0.455[/td][td]14.909[/td][/tr][tr][td]23456[/td][td]1.000[/td][td]34.000[/td][/tr]

[London Shooter]

Now I can say I learnt something today

Of course it is not my own work. Somebody on WofV forum did all the calculations. The above looks at the probability of hitting the Small only - Tall would be the same for the high numbers.

So the bet becomes positive in expectation after any number hits. Somebody was asking on the other thread if the casino let you take the bet down at any stage. Well, it would be in the casino's interest to let players take the bet down after any number has been hit.

I guess the All becomes a positive expectation bet after any two numbers have hit.

[heavy]

Most interesting. Thanks for working the kinks out and getting it posted.

[spiker]

One of my local casinos let's you bet the ats with no other action. . I've been thinking of just going and betting on everybody with no other action. ..what would be a safe way to play and pray iit hits haha? Whenever i go i ask if it's been hitting and they always say it has been but I've only been there once when the all hit , and been there a lot when nobody can roll Jack crap on that table...I've only seen one real good roll on that table through many visits there. .super bouncy, i never roll good there

[mssthis1]

If you buy in for $100, split the chips into 3 piles. $30.00 in pile 1, $40.00 in pile 2, $30.00 in pile 3. Start with pile #1 betting 1/1/1. If that all goes away without a hit use pile 2 betting 2/1/2. If that goes without a hit play 3/1/3 with the remaining $30.00. If you get a win refill your rack to $100.00, put the rest in your pocket and start over at 1/1/1/.

This will give you at least 22 chances. 1 hit on either the small or tall will put you back to even or ahead.

[London Shooter]

Also have a reload plan. For me it is just once per shooter if the roll still feels early enough, ie say up to 10 rolls. Sure it will suck if you miss the odd payout having not reloaded but that will be rare. It will suck more if you reload for a fifth time and the 7 comes again and you are still on the come out - yes that will happen and yes some players will still plough into the ATS ad nauseam.

You can even be super safe by considering a lay if you happen to be left with a box number and want to hedge a portion of the potential payout.

[spiker]

Cool...good insight guys

[London Shooter]

I like how mss has laid out a way to wager $100 on the bet if the house doesn't want you to have any other action. A fun way to play it. Could be quite frustrating giving how many apparent near misses the bet gives you, but get a couple of hits and you'll be laughing.