How many rolls . . .

[heavy]

Okay, allow me to toss out some numbers for you.

There are six sides on each die.
There are thirty-six possible outcomes when you toss the dice (6 X 6 because you toss two dice).
There are six combinations of numbers on a pair of dice that add up to seven.
Therefore, the odds of the seven showing on the next toss of the dice is one in six.
Over the long haul you'll see a seven tossed every six rolls.
All sevens are not roll-ending sevens. Sevens at the beginning of a hand are happy sevens.
The average "game" at craps - from toss one until a decision is made on the established number by either making the point or sevening out - is just shy of four rolls.
The average "hand" at craps - from toss one until the shooter's hand ends with a sevens out - is just over eight rolls.

Okay, there you have some facts. Now, there have been many betting strategies developed through the years that attempt to "beat" the math of the game. There have also been many non-betting strategies (e.g. the "five count") developed in an attempt to beat the math of the game. Understanding that the long run math of the game is essentially incontrovertible, when is the best time to turn your bets "off" on the typical shooter's hand? Please explain your answer.

[mssthis1]

when is the best time to turn your bets "off" on the typical shooter's hand? Please explain your answer.

Before toss 1 by leaving it in the rack. Even if you are just playing for fun isn't it more fun to bet on yourself than other shooters? I feel you should do everything in your power to make as high of percentage of tosses you see your own as possible. Over the course of last weekend more than 80% of the tosses I had action on were my own or known shooters. In Vegas it is easy since there is always another table just around the corner.

Sometimes though you're in a market where the option of finding a new empty table isn't available and I feel there isn't really a correct answer. As a guideline I would say the lower your bankroll, the quicker you should consider using the O word to extend your playing time. Normal variance will get a limited bankroll sooner or later. You may as well make it later.

Final answer. If I was betting on typical shooters with a limited bankroll I would turn off after I recouped my initial layout plus 1 winning bet and the following indicators. New money on the table on the end the dice are heading to, stick change, 2 horns in a row, and ats payouts.

If my bankroll is healthy I almost never turn off as it is only a method to prolong your play on a limited bankroll. There's no way to know if the next random shooter will toss the dice 3 times or 80 and there is nothing more aggravating for me than doing TUMA time while someone tosses for 40 minutes.

[Moe Bettor]

A good and serious question. For me any disturbance on the table or off. I don't turn them off..I bring them down. Also, when a roll seems to be
petering out..that is..my place bets are sitting for two rolls not making money. But I am interested in hearing others on this.

[heavy]

Good answers, and I'm glad to hear some of you are watching for "disturbances in the Force" or other "indicators." But I'm also interested in when you'd be off if there were NO indicators. For example, the famous Scoblete five count (I wonder who he borrowed that idea from originally) would have you not placing or working any bets until the shooter gets five tosses in. One of my recommendations has been not to have action on the first roll after a point is established. There are other points in a long hand that I consider to be "humps" that are hard to get past, so I'll often turn my bets on around those points. Sooooo, any thoughts along those lines?

[flextimeLV]

I think Scobe borrowed the idea from Cap'n Crunch. I enjoy this thread cuz I play the darkside and you're giving me ideas when to get into position.

[London Shooter]

I think if you are wanting to wait at least one roll after a point is established and you are also wanting to avoid the 3rd roll, then a 3 count on randies would be sensible. Then place bets for 4 or 5 roll and consider turning off, taking some or all down, or regressing given by roll 8 you are into territory the majority of hands won't get past.

[heavy]

Hybrid thinking from L.S. Not bad. Now, let's add the caveat that it's only on YOUR shooting or the shooting of a DI that's known to you and whose results you generally like.

How would that compare with betting on a random roller. Would you change your betting strategy? And I REALIZE that most of you are going to quote yours truly and say "the best bet on a random roller is no bet," but I also know that when I stand at the table with most of you you bet on every shooter that touches the dice. Soooooo, let's get an honest answer here. Would you turn your bets off at a different time for a random roller than for a known roller (including yourself)?

[Cap-n_Lou]

For me it depends on whether I have locked in a profit. If so, I will set a floor that I will not risk dropping below and will usually leave at least some money in play as long as I am above that floor. until that point I have a shorter fuse with a random roller and usually will take my bets down after 5 rolls without a point or 2 place bet payoffs.

[London Shooter]

H if we are talking about our own shooting (or a known DI) and we know we (and they) have an edge and we know which numbers they have an edge on, then theoretically, we should just always keep our bets up.

However, given we do not roll in a theoretical vacuum, nor in the Perfect World Casino, I guess we have to factor in fatigue and distractions and we may act accordingly to dice off table, two consecutive craps numbers (dependent on set being used I guess), crotch grabbing by cocktail waitress and so on.

Now for the randies, theoretically they have no edge, we don't know what numbers they "should" be throwing, so fatigue and distractions shouldn't be an issue here. But any time you want to take your bets off on a randie will be a good time as you'll lose less the less time your money is up.

...and yes we will all have plenty of bets on the randies during a lap of the table, despite knowing no bet is the best answer.

[Cap-n_Lou]

I'm glad I'm not the only one ....

[Sputnick]

When I am the shooter, I use two indicators. The first one is when my toss is starting to become erratic and random on too many tosses. The other one is when I am reaching my high number of average rolls of past experiences of being in the zone. In other words, when my concentration is melting and I am beginning to think of throwing a seven. When my belief that a seven is about to show, I seem throw it in a couple of tosses.

[heavy]

The other one is when I am reaching my high number of average rolls of past experiences of being in the zone. In other words, when my concentration is melting and I am beginning to think of throwing a seven. When my belief that a seven is about to show, I seem throw it in a couple of tosses.

This is a keen observation and one I've written about several times in the past. My roll-tracking sheet has shaded columns every six or so rolls to remind me that there are critical points in my personal hands - numbers that have been difficult for me to get beyond in the past. These are hints to myself that "hey dummy, you might want to turn 'em off a couple of rolls and see what happens." Invariably this crops up about the time I have my six or eight pressed up to $420 and am looking for that first $500 for $10 hit - which I don't get because my bets are off. But that's okay. If I can't win $500 for $10 I'm quite fine with getting that $420 back when the seven shows.

The other part of your comment plays to what I refer to as the "crap between your ears." Yep. If that seven creeps into your thoughts then it's probably going to manifest itself in the next couple of rolls. It just is what it is.

[Tgold]

Good thoughts everyone.

Heavy asked:
"when is the best time to turn your bets "off" on the typical shooter's hand?

If you do indeed mean "typical shooter" as in a random shooter, instead of a typical shooter that is unknown as in previously unseen, then my response is that I typically do nothing.
Because if it is a random roller my usual wager, if any, is simply $11 on two inside numbers and seldom press or regress. Plus if the shooter is randomly exhibiting a random toss they probably aren't aware of the "mathematical expectations of dice". They likely aren't influenced by any disrupting activities that are occurring and may even be the one causing the disruptions(i.e., laughing/joking around, ordering/drinking another beer, flirting with the waitress....etc), so these type of disrupting behaviors often perceived as hand ending are not likely to affect that RRs toss quality (+ or -).
IMO when dealing with random tosses is that the same volatility that allows for that three-toss hand with (0) hits on my two wagers is the same great volatility that permits a randomly thrown eight-toss hand with four hits on my two inside #s. So my thinking is that I need to stay out there to get that slightly-extended hand that will hopefully negate any less-than-expected range hands.

However,

If you're asking what we would do on a shooter that is unknown, but that shooter appears to have a consistent/practiced shot, I will likely have more $ out on the table than the $11 mentioned above(but still prob only two wagers). I will monitor what is happening "right now" and on the most recent 2-3 tosses compared with overall outcomes and roll duration.

For example, lets say the shooter has tossed six times (11,7,4,3,2,11) then I'm off or down. However, lets say in this HeavysPerfectWorldCasino this same shooter has tossed six times of (11,7,6,8,5,9 ) and lets say this shooter is using a 3v-type set and wagering on 6/8, and although at the sixth toss in the roll duration I would NOT be off or down even though the roll duration has obviously reached the commonly held 7-expected range. I also watch what the shooter is doing. If the shooter all of sudden says turn me off or downs everything to a PL wager, then I'm off too.

All the best,
Tgold

[SHOOTITALL]

I have nothing hard and fast on this, but basically play two different "turn me off" ways. If I am using my One hit-can't miss, makes zero difference to me IF I have gotten a hit on the six or eight. If I have gotten two hits here, let those dogs run.
The other is if I am not playing that system, a couple of trash numbers will do it. I can forgive one but not two. Without a hit on the one hit-can't miss, a couple of trash numbers might make me pull the 6 or 8. The shooter has already dodged my 10/6 advantage twice so I am a little leery of giving him a third shot at my bets.