The Doey-Don't and the Patrick System

[heavy]

The Doey-Don't and the Patrick System
copyright 2011 by Stephen Haltom - All Rights Reserved

I thought I'd tackle the task of explaining the Doey-Don't, a strategy touted by the famous gaming author Frank Scoblete - and the Patrick System, which is essentially the flip side of the Doey-Don't as taught by John Patrick.

Both of these strategies call for the player to make simultaneous Pass and Don't Pass - then Come and Don't Come bets. The idea is to protect the Pass and Come bets from the craps numbers and to protect the Don't Pass and Don't Come bets from the seven and eleven. Once the bets are established you take or lay odds. Scoblete suggests taking odds - Patrick opts for laying odds. Obviously Patrick is the smarter of the two writers, since the Don't bets have a fractional advantage over the Do's. This should come as no surprise to those of you who have followed Scoblete's work through the years. Math is clearly not one of his stronger suits.

The best thing I can say about these systems is that they focus on low vig bets. As you have no doubt noted, the 12 will lose the pass bet and push the don't pass on the come out roll, and this is where the house edge is. Try calculating the house edge on these bets you will llikely come up with a 2.82% edge on the combined bets. But you have to remember you're making two bets and divide that 2.82 by 2 to get the real answer - a 1.41% house edge. Yeah, that's the same edge you'd come up with if making these bets by themselves. The house edge is the same, but you are putting additional money into play. And that is the rub.

Let's look at it another way to help with the math a bit. Assume you and your playing partner are playing the Doey Don't together. Some players actually do this to build comp credit. On one end of the table you're makind $100 Pass Line bets and taking odds. On the other end your partner is playing $100 Don't bets and Laying odds. By making two bets you are increasing the overall house edge. Each bet should lose $1.41 for every $100 wagered. $1.41 plus $1.41 equals $2.82 lost for every $100 wagered. But individually the two players only face a 1.41% house edge.

You bet more with the Doey-Don't or the Patrick - and you lose more with it. My opinion? If you are afraid you are going to lose your Pass or Don't Pass bet on the Come Out then you probably shouldn't be playing at all. These strategies are nothing more than convoluted hedge systems. The problem with hedge systems is that once you start down that trail it's hard to get off it. Next think you'll be playing the Doey-Don't $150 with a $5 hedge bet on the twelve.

My advise? Take sufficient bankroll to the tables to withstand the ebb and flow of the game. Set win objectives and loss limits. If you want to stick with the lowest vig bets they stick with the Don't Pass and Don't Come with odds. If you don't lose on the Come Out roll the don't pass bet will usually win. And yes, I can already hear you thinking about hedging the Come Out with a $41 no 4, $31 no 9, or a $3 sevens hop.

[al_falcons]

I have had some success playing this way at the casino when shooting from the don't pass. I have a habit of throwing a lot of come out 7's, so I start out with a $10 doey-don't and then lay max odds on the don't pass after the point is set.

Upside to this theory: You are protected against the come out 7,11 which are rolled much more than 2,3,12. If you can 7-out before you make your first point you win your don't pass odds.

Downside to this theory: If you don't roll a come out 7 or 11, and 7-out before your first point, you just wasted $10 on the pass line.
Another downer, say your first point was a 4 or 10 and you can are playing at a 3,4,5 odds table. You lay $60 to make $30 and you make the point and lose $60. The best you can hope for on the next point is to win $30 with a 7-out, your loss for the hand is then $30.

For my practice rolls in 2011 while shooting from the don's' I win 80% of my sessions for an average win of $210. In casino I have won 2 and loss 0 sessions trying this. It works great if you can 7-out before that first point is rolled out.

[heavy]

I've maintained for years that shooting from the Don'ts and playing at off-hours when the tables are relatively empty is the bottom-line best way to capitalize on any influence you have over the dice. Why not have the power of the seven working for you instead of against you? You never have to worry about a point-seven-out again.

[al_falcons]

Yes the empty table helps a lot. It sucks to sit there and have 1 win and have to wait 45 min or longer to get the dice to have another 4-5 roll hand. It also helps to keep the other players dirty looks off of you as well. If you happen to be at a full table and shoot from the dont's the suits might love you if you have short hands and take everyone elses money!

[Pacecar]

When I play the doey-don't, if the point established is a 4 or 10, then I place odds on the point. If the point established is a 6 or 8, then I either choose to place odds or lay odds depending how the table has been hitting on the 6/8. If the point established is a 5 or 9, then I lay odds and make a DC bet (richochet system).
With the above system, I'm hoping that the roller makes the 4 or 10 point more often than the true probablilities.

[Iceman95]

Next time I get to the casino hopefully this week, I was thinking on playing similar to Pacecar post. I will post my results. And as Heavy has stated set your objectives and limits.

[wild child]

.
Makes a case for making large $ PLACE bets and take the bets DOWN/OFF after one or two rolls

Sam Grafstein in " The Doctor " Gambler's Book Club/GBC Press, Inc. has an explanation of
the Converted Come Bet.

Some of the old timers may be better to explain it than I


W C

[heavy]

Asn I recall, the converted come bet is simply a system for letting the dice make the decision on what to bet. Instead of come betting you wait until a number rolls - then place that number.

[Iceman95]

I went to the casino the other night. After waiting about 20 mins to get on a table I finally got to play. I only had about 30 mins to play. I get in and the other players tell me you better like don'ts. So I drop a dp for 25 lay and pt of 8 est. So I place the point for 30 and take odds of 30 for the dp. I make a 25 dc. Eventally, shooter makes the point and I win on my dc. I make one more dc before leaving and win. So win +30 for the trip. The carma on the table was terrible. Dealers playing out my winning bets to other players. Other players next to me talking like they were the best craps players ever.