Charting Streaks and Trends

[heavy]

I frequently talk about charting and occasionally give examples from sessions - real and RNG generated. I thought I'd start a separate thread specifically on charting. What I'd like to do here is give examples of what I'm looking for when I chart, give you the opportunity to post tracking from live sessions you've played for analysis and comment by yours truly and other forum members. And generally discuss all things related to charting - but specifically charting for streaks and trends. A couple of examples:

Shooter sets the dice and rolls - 7 - 7 - 7 - 10 - 4 - 11 - 10 - 5 - 8 - 4 - 10P

At what point do you get in the game? What do you bet and at what point do you place that bet?

Since this guy is setting the dice I'll probably get on the Pass Line from roll one. In a $10 game I'll win $10 on the come out and parlay it to the Pass line giving me a $20 Line bet. He tosses a second seven and I get paid $20 on the line. I regress that bet to $10 and lock up $30. He tosses a third seven and I parlay that $10 to the Pass Line giving me a $20 line bet. He sets the 10 as the point. Grafstein would tell you not to take odds because you have the parlayed pass line there and are risking $10 to win $30 - a 3 to 1 payoff, which is better than the 2 to 1 payoff on the odds. I call bullshit on that and take single ($20) odds. I have $40 action but because I locked up $30 earlier I only have $10 at risk to win $60. Fat city. Next the four rolls. That's a four and ten back to back, and that's my queue to Buy the four and ten for $25 each. Next the eleven rolls and I turn my bets off. In my world the eleven is bad juju. I don't like trash numbers in general and superstition says the eleven brings out the seven. I go with it. Next toss is the four. Turning my bets off just cost me a net $49 win. Great example of how expensive superstitions can be. Next toss is the five. I turn my bets back on. Eight rolls yet. I wait. Four rolls and I drop $1 and press the four to $50, locking up $25. In my book that four is now essentially a free bet. I have $1 juice invested on a $50 bet that will win me $100 if it repeats. Next roll - ten. Win win win - Pay Pay Pay. Plus $60 from the $20 Line bet and $20 odds. Any questions? The only numbers that earned the right to be wagered on in this hand were the Pass Line bet and the four. That's all I risked money on. The four and ten were streaking.

Now let me give you an example of tracking that would queue a switch to the Dont's.

Shooter 1: 4 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 7 out
Shooter 2: 6 - 8 - 3 - 7 out
Shooter 3: 8 - 11 - 7 out

Okay, we've had three consecutive hands where shooters sevened out without making it to roll 8. In fact, no one is even getting past the famous Scoblete five count. The average hand at craps is just a fraction over eight tosses. The seven theoretically shows up one roll in six. The hands are getting progressively shorter. So what is the correct betting decision at this point?

Option 1: Don't Pass
Option 2: Bypass the Come Out and play ONE bet on the Don't Come
Option 3: Bypass the Come Out and Lay against the point
Option 4: Bypass the Come Out and run a negative progression on the Sevens Hop

Or do you have an Option 5 that you would like to suggest?

Please give detailed explanation regarding your choices. Discussion appreciated.

[Moe Bettor]

Seven out on 6th roll makes me unsure so I'd probably wait and lose out on the CO 2. But I would probably also venture (as the 2nd roll goes on) a no 10. I'm definitely in after the 2nd series on the don't. My rule is the 5 roll rule. If a seven shows within 5 rolls, I assume a don't situation. Correct betting decision for me is a $15 DP with $1 yo and $3 hop sevens. Pt is now 8. I go $30 lay odds and a no 10 for $41. I make DC for $10 w/a $1 yo. I do sometimes bypass the CO and lay odds against the CO number. You want to, IMO, start with a $15 DP, get it up and then your DC for $10 w/a $1 yo means you cannot lose more than a buck with boxcars. As for your choices..Option 1 is ok..you're putting a toe in. Option 2 ignores the CO..which is
a lost opportunity. Option 3 is Patrick lite, but not a bad play as it is harder to make a number in a don't situation. I won't comment on option 4.

[luxlogs]

I chart using a 4 color bic pen that I liberated from my kids book bag.

Black is for Box Numbers
Green is for Field Numbers
Red is for, DuH Reds
Blue is for Notes

See whats Trending at a glance.

[London Shooter]

I like the different colour approach, though I would perhaps change to have one colour for box numbers, one for trash (2,3,11,12) and red for red..... seems like a fair idea if you have the inclination and the pen(s)

Option 5 for don't play- by-pass come out then lay both the 4 and 10 and keep them up until one is knocked off or the 7 comes, whichever happens first.

[wild child]

The Box # 's Five and Nine have not shown in three hands totaling TWELVE ROLLS
(including 7's)
.
My wager choice ,LAY the 5 and Nine $45 ea
with a game plan to pull down if no result within TWO ROLLS

just me saying
w c

[heavy]

Good ideas all. Now let's hear some of you other guys who play the don'ts chip in.

[London Shooter]

Looking at those three short hands again, they could be really messy for anybody who likes to get multiple DCs placed.

[wiremonkey]

ok, new guy here, would like everyones opinion on this recent book of rolls at my local casino, my original intent was to play a no4 no10 with 15dp, but sense reading about the importance of charting the tables, did not jump in right away, but charted these rolls instead. needles to said i did not play my original plan.
SLHK-7,11,2,8p,10,10,7out
SLSO 10p,8,11,2,3,7out change direction
DRSO 6p, 7out SR3 9p,7 out
SR1 9p,5,3,9p co7,5p,6,3,9,5, co6, 7out change direction
SL1 co7,9p,4,9p, co6p,9,9,7
SL2 10p,3,9,10p,co2,6p,12,5,8,6p,co3,5p,9,4,5p,9p,7out
SL3 8hp,9,6h,3,6,5,5,4,8p,4p,4p,5,7out
SLSO co3,6hp,8h,2,7 out DL1 4p,9,6,11,8,6h,5,7out change direction
DRSO CO7,6p,5,6p,10p7out
SR1 5p,8h,5p,9p,2,2,7out
SL2 5p,6,12,8,5p,5p,11,6h,11,2,4h,9,10h,8,5p,CO3,7,4p,9,5,10,9,6,12,11,7out

any thoughts, thanks

[London Shooter]

Can you edit to put each shooters numbers on a separate line as will be much easier to read and comment.

Some fairly warm hands in there at firs glance though and doesn't look like dont's would have fared too well.

[eastcoast]

Option 1 and lay max odds. Reason? I agree with London Shooter's comment about multiple DC's.

[Moe Bettor]

A beautiful example of a chop table. We will all encounter this situation. In fact this series of rolls is really par for the course most of the time unless you have a DI working. What would charting do here? Ok..SLHK is a watch and wait for me. I see 6 rolls after the CO and out. I'm not in this
yet. Second roll..6 before the 7 shows. Mostly junk showing. I put a toe in on the 3rd roll DP get the 6 for $15 w/odds, DC for $10..seven out. I'm ahead a bit. And I continue on the don't. I don't get caught on the CO 7 on the change direction because I always go $1yo and $3 hop 7, but I get 9 on the DP and take odds..the DC and get 4 lay odds. I get nailed on the 9, but the 4 is up there and on the next 7 I get paid for that. I will probably get nailed minimally on the next roll, then I stop and wait to see the table direction. So far I am a bit ahead, but cautious as hell. IMO the table must tell me to get back in and that means a 7 within 5 rolls.I see SLSO..a co 3 and then a quick 7 out. I am in again. I get 4, 9, 6..get hit on the six but score big on the 7 out. And so it continues. The longer positive roll will probably catch me, but I do have a tendency to pull don't bets if they don't pay off within three rolls. I see myself slightly ahead here.

[wiremonkey]

Thanks guys so far for the responses, London will try and repost in a more cohesive Manor for you will also include a little note on each shooter. Thnick, again thank you for confirming some of the things I also felt I saw at the table being fairly new I'm just learning and your confirmation helps. Heavy, thanks for the great thread, let's hear from more newbies comments or observations right or wrong the Veterans are here to help us become better players.

[heavy]

Let me see if I can interpret the rolls a little better for you:

1. Stick Left Hook: 7p,11p, 2d, 8point, 10, 10, 7out (5 rolls before the second seven)

2. Stick Left Straight Out: 10 point, 8, 11, 2, 3, 7 out (4 rolls before the seven out - Unless you were playing the Don'ts you should have had NO action on this hand. Trash number indicators)

3. Stick Right next to Base Dealer: 6 point, 7 out (PSO)

4. Stick Right 3 (hook): 9 point, 7 out (PSO)

5. Stick Right 1: 9 point, 5, 3, 9 pass - 7 p, 5point, 6, 3, 9, 5pass - 6 point, 7 out (Two passes, one Come Out Natural, PSO on fourth point)

6. Stick Left 1: 7p, 9 point, 4, 9 pass. 6 point, 9, 9, 7 out

7. Stick Left 2: 10 point, 3, 9, 10 pass. 2d, 6 point, 12, 5, 8, 6 pass. 3d, 5 point, 4, 5 pass. 9 point, 7 out (Three passes, two come out Don't naturals, PSO on fourth point)

8. Stick Left 3: 8 point (hard), 9, 6h, 3, 6, 5, 5, 4, 8 pass. 4 point, 4 pass. 5 point, 7 out. (Two passes, PSO on third point)

9. Stick Left Straight Out: 3d, 6 point hard, 8 hard, 2, 7 out.

10. Straight out Left - Next to base dealer: 4 point, 9, 6, 11, 8, 6 hard, 5, 7 out.

Okay, there are a couple of more lines of rolls tracked but the 10 shooters we have tracked should suffice for this purpose. If anyone wants to run the next few lines knock yourself out.

How would you guys interpret this data? How would you bet it as the hands unfolded? Let's hear some good examples of how and why>

[London Shooter]

Tough to call. By hand 3 you should be playing DP but limiting it to one loss per shooter but by hands 7 and 8 you have hopefully switched to passline.
Perhaps after hand 5 you see a good trend on 5 and 9 and play those?

I think though in the heat of battle many of us would really struggle with suc sequences to make a profit no matter how we played it.

[heavy]

Okay, let me give you one interpretation on how to bet this mess. Let's start by looking at the first three hands. I don't care what numbers rolled - I'm just looking at the number of rolls before seven:

XXXXX7
XXXX7
X7

Okay, there are three consecutive wrong way decisions, and on each decision you're seeing fewer and fewer tosses before the seven. On the fourth hand your options are DP plus odds - or wait until the point is established and Lay the point. And you might want to think about making a fairly substantial bet. But I don 't want to put that huge bet and leave it out there forever, so I'm going to limit it to around three or four tosses. Let's say I've opted for the second choice and Lay against the point. The point is nine. Lay $300 no nine. It's going to cost you $15 for the juice so we're looking at $315 no nine. Now wait for the shooter to toss the dice three to four times. If the trend continues then he'll seven out in short order and you'll win $200 (minus the vig). If the nine does not show in three to four rolls then take the Lay bet down and continue to chart, looking for another opportunity. In this case - we saw another PSO and the bet would have won. Of course, you need to have sufficient bankroll to support this level of play, but you can still accomplish the same thing with smaller amounts - you'll just win less.

[Moe Bettor]

Agree. One other thing to consider, IMO. When rolls start to get longer without a seven showing, you do the same scanning toward the positive. That might be the time to play DP, but place the 6 and 8 or lay an outside number that has been hit. This stuff does give you an edge up, folks. I have a couple of youtube demos that prove it. They may be primitive, but this type of play can save your butt while you are waiting for a DI. It often puts you ahead.

[heavy]

Exactly. You can use Shootitall's "One Hit - Can't Miss" play as a transitional move to go from the Don'ts to the Do's when the table is warming up. $20 Don't Pass. Place the Six and Eight for $18 each. See where it goes from there. . .

[London Shooter]

Works on hand 4 what you say Heavy but I think most people make a mess of hand 5 if by this time they are on the don'ts and picked up a win on hand 4. What do you think? Could you have got out of hand 5 unscathed, or does hand 5 at least give you a feel it is time to switch to positive play?

[heavy]

My preference on hand 5 would be to take the Grafstein approach and limit myself to one loss per shooter. So if I got knocked off in his first game I would not bet for the rest of his hand. I would be TEMPTED to Place the five and nine ONLY in his second hand because they are streaking at that time. However, you'd probably end up breaking even for the hand at best doing that. From that point on, by the way, as the table takes a more positive turn, the five and nine are the dominant numbers. I'd eventually end up adding the six and eight but I'd start out with the five and nine.

[heavy]

I'm basically showing you my spin on SIA's One Hit - Can't Miss play. With that play your place bets on the six and eight should be approximately equal so that once you get that first hit on the six or eight you cannot lose. If the seven shows after you've collected $21 you'll still net $5 profit. So the idea once you get that first hit is to just stand there and see if you get MORE hits. After a couple of hits you could even go up a unit if you wanted. If you want to regress you could. In the end it's all about guaranteeing a win.