Getting over the Hump

[Bankerdude80]

My last few outings, although profitable overall, had a few hands which played out in the following way when I was shooting:

1) PL Bet
2) Establish Point
3) Make 2x PL odds bet
4) Place bet $44 even numbers
5) Hit and get paid on four or five place bets (no one box number dominant)
6) Seven-out

These types of rolls would culminate in tossing 7 to 10 times before the hand would end.

What change to the betting strategy would you incorporate in order to make hands like this profitable? Would you increase your bets and then employ a regression? Open to all ideas.

[rhythm roller]

I would guess many will go with regression and I do employ those at times. I would increase the amount I bet on my two best "edge" numbers with whatever set I am using. Betting less numbers but more $$ to start on each number. Then once you break even or win a little you could certainly do a regression to lock up that win. I mentally have a problem with betting lots of small bets to start on the table so I just won't do it. I hate having to get four or five winning hits just to make my initial money back. How often do I on average toss that many winning numbers per hand? Of course, no guarantee even with two numbers that you will get your initial bet back each time. But in my mind, it seems easier to look for two initial hits and then spread out and up once I have those two hits. My really good hands tend to focus on two or three hero numbers so I tend to stick with that. If I am spraying numbers all over the board then my hands tend not to last anyway. This is just my approach though.

[mssthis1]

You may try Heavy's heat seeker to see if you like that. Example: if you're betting even numbers and toss a 10 collect that bet and take your money off the sister number in this case the 4 and move it to the ten.

I agree with Rhythm Roller. The vast majority of my long hands or good sessions are due to pounding a couple of numbers repeatably. If I'm spraying numbers I rarely have a long hand. On that long roll at Bally's my 6 was up to $1800.00, it's sister the 8 was at $180.00. My 9 was at $750.00. The pass line point was the 5 and I don't believe I ever tossed a 5 the entire shoot as I inherited the roll and don't remember tossing a pass line winner. The 10 was at $800.00 and the four was at $50.00 so I tossed one four that entire time. If I had been smart enough to employ Heavy's heat seeker the first time the 6,9, and 10 rolled those ending bet amounts would have been much higher.

[heavy]

The problem is the "seven out" portion of this whole affair. Lately I've had some success by putting some decent sized bets out there to begin with ( Place Bets and Buy bets), then taking enough hits to kick off $60 - $100. Then I take my Place Bets down and bump my odds up to $50 and shoot for the point. For sure, I think some sort of regression move is in order.

[London Shooter]

I agree that the hands BD describes looks ripe for some kind of regression. Something like the MP 204 would fit very well, but it's then back to the old PSO or PPSO debate - have you go the stomach to risk a lot to win something small initially?

Or, bet the even numbers/inside for two hits then take down two numbers that didn't hit after a couple of pay-offs.........as ever the combinations are infinite which is why we love this game

[heavy]

Power pressing does improve focus IMHO.

[AlBTossin]

Since Heavy mentioned power pressing, that is what I would do on the first hit. Say 6 is your point, press 4,8 &10 one unit each. From there you need two hits to basically break even. From there you have multiple options. Examples include 1) keep the money up and press the numbers you hit is what I do, 2) take down the number(s) not producing, 3) regress back to $44 or 22 even/inside, 4) move the money to your top two numbers hitting, or 5) even initiate come betting to have 2 or 3 come bets working.

You have your money off the table in 3 hits and have 66 working; how can you maximize your profit in another 2 or 3 hits on average And put yourself in position to make good money with that potential 15 to 25 roll hand. Good luck!

[heavy]

I used to (MANY years ago) do something similar with the inside numbers. Let's say the point was six as you suggested. I have $32 inside in addition to the Line bet and odds. The nine hits and pays $14. I drop $2 and press all of the inside numbers. That puts me at $48 inside. Next hit pays $21 - same bet. I'm still behind $15 but I'm headed in the right direction. The John Patrick move would be to come down on the Place action at this point and lock up $21 profit from it. John would NEVER have been on the Pass Line. More likely he'd have laid against the Six and played a $20 DC, which would have moved to the Eight on that toss. Then he'd stand there and wait until the ugly number showed and he made $20 . . . OR . . . he'd Place the Eight for $18 to guarantee himself a $3 or $1 profit for the series. Hey, those $1 wins add up.

[Greg]

I have about decided the game cant be beat, unless you have several guys who hold the dice for a long while which is a rare occurrence. The last trip I made the table was so choppy, I tried every which way possible, I bet 22 inside on random, 44 inside on better shooters, one point I bet 30 $ don't and a 30 $ 6 and 8,, then I tried the DPL and 2 don't come bets nothing worked I had one decent roll and ended up 200$ down. If there is a way to beat the game I haven't found it, other than luck or long rolls.

[SHOOTITALL]

Beating the game is not that hard. What is hard is being satisfied with beating the game. Remove the hump, be satisfied with a $1 win after three hours. If you can't be satisfied with small wins but need large wins to prove your virility, that is a different game. Now, in order to win you also need iron clad discipline and a game plan. Our long time pal DF hasn't shot the dice in over 12 years yet is a consistent winner. I can tell by your post you had no game plan but rather a semi idea of how you were going to play. I wish you well on this journey. I have found a consistent way for me to win but it produces small wins most of the time. Does it work every session? Absolutely not. Does it win most sessions? Absolutely. If it will take large wins for you to decide you have beaten the game, that will be extremely difficult.

[heavy]

Beating the game is not that hard. What is hard is being satisfied with beating the game.

Ba-da-bing. I was having a discussion with a TGS about card counters and how many security people (manning the eye in the sky) wouldn't know an advantage player if they saw one. He told me something I'd never thought about. He said they just looked for the greediest guy at the table. Think about THAT. Every pro card counter I know has one goal - to find a casino with an exploitable game and to beat that game until the casino kills it by change the rules, firing the dealer, or whatever it takes. So don't be greedy guys. Pick up a day's wages and move on.

[Cap-n_Lou]

I echo the last two comments. In addition, though I respect that not everyone may agree with me, I always tip the dealers, even when I'm not winning big, and in fact even on some losing sessions at casinos where I am a regular and known to them. I've found that having the boys in my corner makes me appear less greedy in all circumstances. Plus, they worked for however long to allow me the entertainment of gambling. Tips is how they make a living, and just because the dice aren't cooperating, that doesn't mean they don't have bills to pay.

[Greg]

I believe what you are saying,, but in my situation there is a few problems I try to go once a month or at least every two months. I like the IP and it is extremely busy, the craps tables are near full from mid evening to after midnight. Most time you can't get in it is so full and out of the 14 players usually 10 of them are shake and throw but It is 2.5 hour drive so I came to play,, but I haven't seen a way to win more than lose. I am talking 20% of buy in not the get rich quick. It is fun but with losing the excitement is wearing off.

[heavy]

Yeah, you are probably playing weekend afternoons and nights. Tough situation. A 7AM session might surprise you. In fact, you'll probably find that around that time they're opening an additional table so you can often be the first guy on a table, get your choice of positions, and not be crowded. You'll also find that like-minded locals, some of whom are pretty damn good shooters, haunt the IP at that time of day. As Irish says, pick your times and don't play when conditions are unfavorable. However, if you ARE going to play under those conditions then play a grind strategy.

[London Shooter]

I like the IP and I love to play craps, especially on vacation which is the only time I am over there, but even I have drawn the line and not played at the IP some of those weekend nights when it is just too busy. The early morning sessions can be much more conducive to profitable play and they will usually have a $5 and $10 table open. As H says, maybe you should try switching things round and come down for an early session instead?

[Tgold]

Hi Bankerdude80. Good post/thoughts.

Ive skimmed most of the responses above and my initial thinking is probably similar. The thoughts below are likely just reiterating what you already know.

As far as "how to get over the hump" IMO youre already there. If one is consistently tossing 7-10 times per hand and getting 4-5 hits then most of our concerns are relegated to simply placing more money on the most-hit #s and less money on least-hit#. I know that is a very obvious / elementary thought but my first suggestion is reduction to three-four wagers vs the five wagers indicated above.
Optimally I would suggest 2-3 total wagers. Reminder that when we place any three box numbers(>11outcomes) we have the odds in our favor to get A hit within two tosses.

But without knowing your session win $goals, buyin, bankroll...etc or your personality re craps these are only quick thoughts. As u may have specific reasons for desiring this multi wager approach so I'm not trying to refute your current strategy.

Although I'm not in favor of this many wagers I do like that your choice of four place bets including the 4/10 as I think too many players focus multi-wager systems on 6/8 and inside and simply cant hit enough numbers to pay for everything on most hand durations or if they do its only for a small profit.

Your hand duration is certainly sufficient to make good money. IMO the reason most multi-wager systems barely make a profit is because of the 1-4 toss duration hands put us too far in the negative and then a 12-15 hand only gets one back to even or minimal profit. For example, If we have 5 wagers then any 1-4 toss hands have almost no potential to pay for themselves and the 8-10 duration hands have difficulty offsetting the (1-4 toss hand), which forces one to have a >=12-15 toss hand to net a decent profit...etc

Suggestion:
Lets say we're staying with similar money on the initial outlay as above($60ish).

Lets consider doing a PL($5) with 4x odds($20),
along with two place bets at $20 each on ur two favorite numbers (i.e., most hit #s),
and maybe $2 hopping the 5 OR 9($1/1 hopping the 5 OR 9) on the first two rolls til you have received 1-2 paying hits. If your hop wager hits within the first couple tosses then place it for $15 and take $5 off of two nonhit $20 wagers so that your still at the $60-65 outlay and still covering four numbers. I wouldn't do hop more than first three tosses so no hits would only be a (-6 total). I usually only do it for initial two tosses.
You may also consider after third paying hit(you will already be pos), to remove any nonhit wager so that u only have three wagers (15 or 18 each), "that have been hit" covered plus the point for $5/5. Then on fourth hit on any# u may consider increasing the odds by $5.This would give us $5/10 on the line after four paying hits with three other wagers at approx. $15 each.

Generally I wouldn't consider pressing til your "net" receipts are at least =to your initial outlay. Then I would only press very slowly(maybe start pressing by doing a $1 hardway on an Easy # hit...etc).

Thx for presenting one of your wagering approaches.

All the best,
Tgold

[luxlogs]

One stinking dollar is Over the Hump, leave it as a toke but Leave if it ain't your day.

[heavy]

I think this topic deserves a " bump," so here we go!

[Greg]

I think so too, the last trip I made started off bad,, and nothing was going right, lost a little but played the next morning and the dice went around the table about 3 times with 4 or 5 players, then a guy hit a long roll made all the numbers which he was playing 10-10-10 on top and made over 3,000 in 30 minutes,, me I started out low and only pressed after a profit and only made 682 which 245 of that was 1-1-1 but it was the most fun Ive had on a table yet. This was at the IP The guy who made all that money played 10-10-10 and a 30pass line bet every time varied odds between 50 and 100,, with 54 across and usually pressed each number on first hit and collected the 2nd, worked good for him as his bankroll could stand it.

[Crapslife]

Bankerdude,

I have used a couple of approaches. Someone mentioned MP204 across. I will use it when I have sufficient buy-in and bankroll. Get my two hits at $50 for $1 and let the rest of it ride. Seven to eight box number hits will generate a profit.

More often, for my own rolls, I like to place min pass line with 5x odds. Then usually $10 units on rest of box numbers. So, lets say the point is 6, $10 pass line $50 odds and $52 across on rest of box numbers. If I have the buy-in, I actually prefer $15 units on the box numbers. If a $10 table, $10 pass line $50 odds and $78 across rest of box numbers. I press numbers as they hit, taking any number hit on the first press to a $50 for $1 pay-off on any hit. So first hit on 4 or 10 goes to $25, 5 or 9 goes to $35 and 6 or 8 goes to $42.

What I like abut this is that a hit on the point, gives a quick pay day. You have any repeaters, on the box numbers, you at $50 for $1 really quick. I will usually stay at $50 for $1 on most of my bets until I get my initial layout even. Have been known to continue power pressing a number if it keeps hitting. If I hit the point quick after setting the point, I will sometimes lower my odds to 3x until I hit a few box numbers and start collecting some funds.

Can suck if you hit each box number once, don't hit the point and seven out. But that would only be 6 rolls to get there. If you go 7 or more, should at least be able to get close to initial layout.

I agree with the other guys on focus and consistency. My plan is usually always the same on my rolling. That way, I am not over thinking it and it gets a bit more mechanical in nature.

Irish is right on walking away, but I am still learning there. Frequency of playing opportunities has something to do with that for me. But I am getting better at it.

Crapslife