Advice..

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

I just started playing craps literally a few weeks ago so bear with me.

Just to learn the game I've been playing super conservative. My rules basically have been:

DP Bet
-> If knocked off wait till next shooter
-> If 2/3 parlay the bet and go again
-> If win first DP bet, next bet will be DP + odds.

DC Bet
-> Played around with waiting 3 to 5 additional rolls before tossing down these bets with the theory that less points will be hit / closer to a 7 rather than immediately after the point is established. Max of two points, depending on money situation depends on if I'm laying odds on those bets. Typically will not play odds on 6/8 regardless.

The table I was playing yesterday was rather cold. In the last hour or two, they might have only made 4-5 points total. So I was winning probably 7/10 rolls.

My Don't comes were very random... luck had me where they'd knock off my DC then 7 out the next roll. I had better luck with just DP/odds winnings due to the coldness of the table. Lots of numbers rolled, but no points... so I was debating tossing up a 44 inside or a iron cross strategy to play with my DP but I didn't want to make it too confusing since I'm new to the game.

So I was thinking about playing a Lay Strategy since most of my losses came from come out roll 7s.

Does anyone here play a strategy like this?

$20 DP
$31 Lay 5
$1 yo

Throw 2/3 Win 20
Throw 7 - Lose 2
Throw 11 - Lose 5
Throw 5 - Lose 31 and hopefully win it back on the DP/odds
Throw 5 - Throw another 5 - Lose 51 max

or

$40 DP
$41 Lay 4 and 10
$2 Yo
* Optional $5 hedge on hard 4 & hard 10 to cut down chances of getting slaughtered by opening 4s and 10s

Throw 2/3 Win 40
Throw 7 Lose 3
Throw 11 Lose 10
Throw 4 Lose 41 and hopefully win it back on the DP (no odds)
* If hedged and hard 4 or 10, i'd lose 6 instead of 41 -> still 41 on soft 4s and 10s
Throw 4 then 4 -> lose either 47 (hedge hit) or 81 (no hedge hit)

Had I played either of those last night, I would have probably crushed it since I was winning so many DPs.

Secondly, if I do play this way.. it is going against the rule of if someone knows off your DP you wait for the next shooter since you're bypassing that to stay in the game. However, as I said, if I would have used this yesterday on the cold table I would have been cleaning up.

Thanks!

[mssthis1]

The only advice I have is drop the hedges. All they do is smooth out the rollercoaster highs and lows while either increasing your long term losses or lowering your long term profit.

[heavy]

You're playing very close to what Grafstein would have recommended. With that said, I agree with mssthis1. You don't really need the lay bet hedges. Instead, just make a DC bet that's smaller in denomination than your DP bet. Example:

$20 Don't Pass
Shooter rolls 9 and establishes it as the point
$15 Don't Come
Shooter rolls 4 and your DC travels to the 4

At this point you have $35 in total action and a good chance at winning $100 over the next 3 - 4 hands. And if a shooter catches a hand you can always bet $18 each on the six and eight and hope for a hit there before the seven rolls. For now, though, I'd take the KISS approach. One DP and one DC with the DC the smaller of the two bets.

[Golfer]

I hedge..........when necessary. Heavy is right on saying they reduce winnings. Now if all of a sudden 11's start showing on comeouts I will hedge with a yo.

Another common happening is 7's on the comeouts and then after a point set the 7 shows soon after without point made. In these cases you can hop the red, or do a lay and take the lay down once a point is established.

B the dice, pay attention to what is happening. If it ain't fun......it is time to run.

Good Luck

[Dark Side]

Secondly, if I do play this way.. it is going against the rule of if someone knows off your DP you wait for the next shooter since you're bypassing that to stay in the game.

Thanks!

There is no rule that says you have to bet on every roll of every shooter or bet on every shooter. Betting that way will cost you money over the long haul.

There are shooters that kill me on virtually every hand they roll regardless of the table temperature. I stay away from them at all costs.

DS

[SHOOTITALL]

There are shooters that kill me on virtually every hand they roll regardless of the table temperature. I stay away from them at all costs. DS

Darkside: That is an astute observation. There are shooters that you cannot beat, some sort a cross Karma or something. When charting a table, I chart the shooters more so than the rolls. Using the One hit - Can't Miss, as good as it is, it still is in negative territory because of the rules of the game. By charting shooters, I know to only take one shot at them. sia

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

I read Grafstein's book.

His money management seems to be the best advice. Splitting your bankroll into equal segments and continue winning on that segment until that segment zero's out. Then move on to the next segment.

Heavy,

I do like the idea of doubling the DP vs the DC to just add a hedge against a 7 beating your DC for $0 profit.
To look at the flip side; By doing this, I also risk $5 more per come out roll where it's most likely to lose. Is this a wise investment?

I think next time I will play will look something like this..

10 DP
5 DC
5 DC
Parlay all bets

My question then becomes... where is the best play to lay odds? The DP, or the DC, assuming I have all 3 bets up. I'm assuming the obvious answer is all three since it lowers the house edge, but I also noticed Grafstein didn't put odds on the DP that often in his strategies.. But it seems like a good spot to put odds since its thrower point vs. 7.

Next topic, I do like the idea of placing the 6/8 for $12, $18, etc.. for one hit and down. Would you use that system against any point number? Example, the point is a six, would you still place the six?

I think the only thing I really haven't explored yet is "when to raise bets". I think Grafstein would have me run through all my segments first, and if I won enough money, then run another set of segments with increased bets. Other people i've read on here raise their bet as they win.. etc.. Any thoughts on that?

Thanks
hero

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

Just to expand on the 6/8 Bet and down... I found a script for win craps that is a 66 inside regressed to 22 inside script and decided to pair with a DP.

150 rolls I went from 500 bankroll to 950 on wincraps... seemed to win alot until alot of quick 7s starting popping up.

Example,

$20 DP
66 Inside for one hit
22 Inside for second hit
Down
Playout remainder.

What seemed to happen was:

IF the point established was a 5-6-8-9, and it would hit again... the winning would offset the DP loss
If a non point number hit, then it 7'd out.. I'd still win profit.
If it hit twice then the point was hit, I'd still win profit.
If it 7'd out prior to the first hit, I'd lose $46 (happened, but not often). <- worst case besides a 7 on the comeout

Has anyone played like this and had success?

Should a wrong side bettor even bother playing these potential high loss strategies?

[Dark Side]

Darkside: That is an astute observation. There are shooters that you cannot beat, some sort a cross Karma or something. When charting a table, I chart the shooters more so than the rolls. Using the One hit - Can't Miss, as good as it is, it still is in negative territory because of the rules of the game. By charting shooters, I know to only take one shot at them. sia

It's so cross karma, I have bet with them on the right side and they 7 out immediately. I just have to stay away from them. Funny thing is, they are good friends. I can't figure it out.

I chart the shooters and number of rolls before the 7 out and look for dominant numbers, which I refrain from laying.

I'm still trying to find your One hit - Can't Miss strategy. I've done a global search in the forum and it fails to come up. I presume you are putting a bet on the DP either flat or with a lay. Then place the 6 & 8 or 6 or 8, the same amount as your total DP bet? Do you take your 6 & 8 down after the first hit?

DS

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

Darkside: That is an astute observation. There are shooters that you cannot beat, some sort a cross Karma or something. When charting a table, I chart the shooters more so than the rolls. Using the One hit - Can't Miss, as good as it is, it still is in negative territory because of the rules of the game. By charting shooters, I know to only take one shot at them. sia

It's so cross karma, I have bet with them on the right side and they 7 out immediately. I just have to stay away from them. Funny thing is, they are good friends. I can't figure it out.

I chart the shooters and number of rolls before the 7 out and look for dominant numbers, which I refrain from laying.

I'm still trying to find your One hit - Can't Miss strategy. I've done a global search in the forum and it fails to come up. I presume you are putting a bet on the DP either flat or with a lay. Then place the 6 & 8 or 6 or 8, the same amount as your total DP bet? Do you take your 6 & 8 down after the first hit?

DS

Pretty sure it's that.

Example $12dp $12-6 $12-8 hit once, take both down, play it out.

Win 2 (win 6/8 lose dp).
Win 26 (win 6/8 win dp).
Win 2 (point is 6/8 and hits).
Lose 12 (7 out).
Lose 12 (hit point that isn't 6/8).
Lose 12 (7 comeout).

All and all.. Not bad!
Worst roll obviously the 7 soon as you toss down the 24. Typically would have won 12, but now you lose 12.

I'd say it's worth the chance at the 26 payoff because that seems like a very likely scenario that will play out on a choppy table.

[London Shooter]

I'd echo earlier advice on the first point - drop the amount of DP and forget the hedge. If you are hedging to protect an initial bet then over the long run you are throwing away money as you are exposing more to the house edge. Even at $1 or $2 dollars these yo bets are adding up. 11.11% is a lot of cents even on the min bets.

Regarding the DP and inside with regression then that has to be a sensible play on average. You are reducing exposure and then getting money off the table. These are a couple of important things I have learnt over the years from this board and players from here I have met. Something you rarely see in action at the tables where most seem to press/press/press and never have an exit point.

As ever it doesn't really matter what you do as long as you keep to low house edge bets and embrace the fact that at some stage your money will be at risk, even if only for a few rolls. You have to accept the risk as part of the game plan. Sure you can hedge pretty much everything at every stage but as H famously says "trim your hedges and watch your profits grow".

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

I'd echo earlier advice on the first point - drop the amount of DP and forget the hedge. If you are hedging to protect an initial bet then over the long run you are throwing away money as you are exposing more to the house edge. Even at $1 or $2 dollars these yo bets are adding up. 11.11% is a lot of cents even on the min bets.

Regarding the DP and inside with regression then that has to be a sensible play on average. You are reducing exposure and then getting money off the table. These are a couple of important things I have learnt over the years from this board and players from here I have met. Something you rarely see in action at the tables where most seem to press/press/press and never have an exit point.

As ever it doesn't really matter what you do as long as you keep to low house edge bets and embrace the fact that at some stage your money will be at risk, even if only for a few rolls. You have to accept the risk as part of the game plan. Sure you can hedge pretty much everything at every stage but as H famously says "trim your hedges and watch your profits grow".

Do people normally favor a smaller DP then lay odds since a bigger DP should lose more over time?

If I do a 10 DP then lay odds 12,15,20 vs. a 20 DP for example.

Statistics would tell me the first option would cost me less in the long run... but stats aren't everything.

I also plan on parlaying all craps... to which the 20 DP would favor this. Would this also negate the disadvantage of the larger DP ?

[London Shooter]

I'd bet the smaller DP and then lay odds, but would look at it as the total I wanted to invest in the bet , say $40 for consistency - 10 DP and then 30 odds, no matter what the number. I'd do that rather than have a $40 DP bet.

Some people though don't like to bet odds on the don'ts - more to win less, so just do naked DPs and DCs. Plus if you get the bigger DP through the come out then it is a lovely feeling to know you are getting paid even money on something you are now odds on favourite to win. I see the stance but I'd rather expose less to the initial come out roll and the maths probably backs this up though you are not really comparing like with like on the two approaches.

I think taking each bet, or set of bets as a how much do you want to risk on this shooter is the key though then adapt your betting style to a logical fit. $40 could be 10 DP then 3x 10 DCs, or 10 DP with 30 odds or just a 40 DP straight up. They all work, each has a different style and comfort level.

But there is no point in thinking oh, I have to do odds on each DP and DC if that process over exposese you. Sure, it's the best deal in the Casino but can easily lead to you betting more.

We recently discussed the Cromwell having 100x odds on the LV strip - flying in the face of modern LV casino thinking which is to offer the customer a worse deal. Here,s a great deal (in theory) but they want you to load up as much as poss and over bet your bankroll as they can just wait for the extra volatility to break you.....and it will, eventually.

As for parlaying DP wins, that wouldn't be my style as I'd rather just rack it or use as help towards my odds. Again I'm thinking about wanting to lessen my come out exposure as preferable to trying to get a bigger bet past the 7s and 11s

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

Funny story...

Hit the casino last night in Pittsburgh with all intentions of playing the don'ts...

Finally got a spot on a $10 table that was making its passes left and right for about an hour straight. And each player had a stack of chips a mile long. All the other tables were full... what do you do... well.. I went with the table instead.

Go figure right?

First guy was a precision shooter. I've seen him there often and he normally does well. Hit 3 points and out.
Next is my girlfriend, who tosses completely random (including changing hands) but is lucky as hell every time... She throws 3 points, and 15-20 rolls no 7s.. Table was loving her.

So i'm up next, and I NEVER throw since I usually play donts.. But since im not, I decide to throw. Did my best "precision shooter" impersonation by setting the dice the 3s on top haha... and gave it a go

I throw 5 points passes (3 + 2 repeats) before I 7 out. -_-

Between the 3 of us, we doubled everyones money. Heh.

With that in mind.. I need to learn the other side of the table. I made $200 on $200, guy next to me made 5 grand on $500. I could have made a lot more but really had no strategy on betting right way other than playing inside numbers

[London Shooter]

Don't forget the guy who made 5 grand will have plenty of sessions when that $500 will do well to last a lap of the table.

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

Oh, I'm sure.

It was a good lesson for me to learn both sides for cases like this where the don'ts really had no chance during the time we played.

So I read that part of Grafsteins book today so I'm a little better off next time with more "educated" bets. The stretch play interested me alot. I can def see how that can really crush it if you get on a heater.

The other one that interested me was his concerted come bet strategy.. The guy who won the 5k was playing normal come bets all night then laying odds and again, but really lucky on a hot table. I can't tell which way I like better, stretch play or betting the number that is rolled.

I do like that the stretch play evolves from money you earned, and not from anywhere else. To me, that seems one of the "better" strategies.

Oh well, learning is great!

[Cap-n_Lou]

I'd say doubling your money is doing pretty well. Dance with the girl you brought -- don't try to learn something new if you've had success on the dark side. Maybe next time you catch a hot table, increase your betting 10-20% over how you were betting this time. Maybe you win $300-$400. But I wouldn't try to develop a new system based on that one experience. Just my $.02 worth ...

[London Shooter]

When you are getting into a roll and are not that used to pressing bets, or power pressing even, just a simple "up a unit" can work very well. It's something I do a lot when I start to press. It suits my conservative style and also each hit puts more in your rack %age wise versus funds left on the table.

Sure, people like Heavy will do a $18 6 and 8, collect once, drop 3 and power press to $42 on next hit, then collect 50 for 1, press it right up to 90 and so on. That is great and these moves will make the big money, like the £5k from $500, but you have to be comfortable with those moves and the amount at risk.

Not only that, as people will tell you, throwing in a regression a time or two can really boost the chip rack.

Or, back to Heavy again - being OFF at the right time can be the biggest boost to your rack of all. I suspect the 5k profit man left substantial amounts on the table each time there was a 7 out. I'd wager some APC members on the same hands could have dodged a bullet or two and made double the profit he did.

[Moe Bettor]

Agree with LS. Heavy's hit and collect, hit and press is a great way to play a strong hand all the way up. You don't have your money at risk after the first couple of moves and you stand to make a ton if lightning hits.

[herosdroid@gmail.com]

What do you do when you encounter a table where the 7s are everywhere?

Last night playing: 3 points was the highest anyone hit all night... average person hitting 1 point or less... loss after loss after loss.

I decide to play don't pass given the temp of the table trend... and kept getting knocked off by opening 7s. But then they'd 7 out. I stayed away from numbers since I figured I'd end up with more money left on the table before I got profit off the table.

Only thing I could think of was either focus on don't comes, try to hedge the opening roll and play it out, or cow tipping... after bleeding chips all night I decided to walk after I lost about $50. It just wasn't going anywhere. Tables were clearing out left and right lol. Very UNFUN night at the tables.