Exponential Odds Variant

[Americraps]

Well if you are in the Chicago area, you may want to join us at one of our Casino Americraps group practices. Nobody has ever lost a cent in our casino! Of course nobody has won anything either. The comps aren't too bad- free pop/beer...

[KrapsNovice]

Well if you are in the Chicago area, you may want to join us at one of our Casino Americraps group practices. Nobody has ever lost a cent in our casino! Of course nobody has won anything either. The comps aren't too bad- free pop/beer...

Americraps,

I appreciate the invite. I would definitely like to join your group practices. I am just a random roller. I live in Mokena which is way south. I gather you and Bill live near Grand Victoria. I plan on moving closer to the city within the next few months I am tired of the commute, seems like I spend more time on the road than being productive.

Take care.
KN

[Americraps]

We'd also like to have you bring the girl who posed for your avatar.

[220Inside]

And we should all pass the dice to her, in order to give her something else to do with her hands. (I know this will spur all sorts of other comments...)

[Inspector]

AC, How often do you come to the other side of the lake to play? I have never visited the Detroit side. How are the tables?

[Americraps]

Hi Inspector,
I'd like to say all the time, but my current BR is zero. I am making a career change from wedding DJ to truck driver. I'm nearly finished getting my cdl, then I can get a job and build a BR. I'm hoping to be back in action this winter.

Last time I was in the Detroit area was a couple of years ago. I liked Motor City, they had a very nice table in the VIP room was $25 min. MGM had a LOT of tables and it was a good place to play. I wasn't too crazy about greektowns tables, the rails were a little high for me. The best tables and conditions were across the border in Windsor.

[Operator]

welcometo the not so wonderful world of truck driving. Are you taking a local job?
Here are a few rules to live by to make it easy for you
1. your dispachter will lie to you its his job don't be hurt by this its his job to lie .
2. They will work the crap out of you for 6 months then things will cool off.
3. A Gatorade bottle is your new best friend
4. buy a rand mc nally gps worth every penny and then some.
5.Pull up after you get fuel on the fuel island other drivers want fuel too.
6. Get use to people flipping you off on the interstate Trucks move slower starting off then cars people just don't get that.
Theres a ton of other things like hold your brake down as you pull into your parking area this heats up the brakes and melts the snow and ice off the interior drum rotor A good thing to do in icey weather.Other wise you will have too crawl under truck in one foot of slush and beat brake drums with a hammer.
The great thing aboutbeing a driver is no one to bother you.Hope this helps after 2 years of service you can get a better paying job.

[Americraps]

Thanks for the tips, Operator. Those look like some gems.
My hope is to get a local job delivering food to restaurants. Those guys do pretty well and I can get hired right out of school. I know I handle the physicality, because I've been loading trucks for the last 6 months at UPS.
I'm trying to stay local if I can.

[Operator]

Local is the best way smart choice if the regs pass next nov things will change in the freight world like no has ever seen.If that fails you look at asphaut construction work pays good local.

[DanF]

Theoricaly, everything you press on a bet is delayed to collect, so if it only hits once you get even as if you didn't press. You need to hit twice on a pressed bet to win money.

Based on this, early pressing is -ev. You press once you are profiting from the hand, else it is a gamble.

I still like to press 1 unit at a time after second hit, but much rather make a come bet to use as a protection bet.

Correct maths would say:

- collect first hit.
- press 1 unit on second.
- parlay third.
- press 1 unit 4th
- collect and regress 5th. Start over.

[Americraps]

Hi Dan- I'm not sure how your progression is mathematically "correct", but it is an interesting betting progression that is optimized for 5 repeaters.

The theory behind exponential odds is similar to compound interest in that as the repeaters come in, the conservative progression causes the profit to go up exponentially. RC's EO works well as long as there are repeaters; the more repeaters, the better. In my variations, I was trying to get it to work with less repeaters.

[KrapsNovice]

Americraps,

Did you get a chance to wargame EO on the field.

KN

[DanF]

Problem is that the quicker you progress your bet, the least profit you lock in early and the more you lose to short rolls. If you want to be able to last and catch that big roll that pushes you ahead you need to lock some profits.

And believe me they come almost every night. A good hand in 4 hours can put you back and even ahead in one good roller. Some night I've battled a 400-500$ hole and two hand got me leaving with 600-700$ profit.

Don't try to make every hand a big hand, that's how you dig yourself a hole.

[Americraps]

Hi Dan- RCs exponential odds system has a very slow ramp up of bet sizes. No more than 20% press of the last payout. This is way too slow for most players, but I have done extensive testing on it and found it to be an extremely effective way to play if you are adequately funded. You lose on most hands, but when the big one comes you make up for the losses.

Hi Kraps Novice- I'm not done testing it yet but after 5 1/2 books, I'm up by $137. I started with $1K, and was up $1500 after the first book. By the third book, I was down $400. I switched my set to a 2V variant and have been winning for the past couple of books, although I am down $300 on the current book. The twelve is key- they need to be frequent and timely. I'll probably test this for at least 10 books before I make any judgement.

It all comes down to the streak. That 12 field hits in a row with three twelves streak that I experienced on the first book has not been repeated in the last 4 1/2 books, but there have been enough small streaks to keep the field progression in the black, more to come....

[Americraps]

Update- After 7 books and 600 rolls, the up as you go field progression busted out on its $1K BR. I shot 2 books in a row with a dearth of field numbers and the $1000 dwindled to zero drop after painful drop. So, the up as you win progression needs a lot of wins. I figure it lost $.1773 per toss, or 1.7% with 12s paying triple and 2 paying double. In this small sample, the progression fared better than flat betting, and was up before the last two books, but was ultimately a loser. I'll probably try this again with a different set and a bigger BR than $1K. It's strange to think of $1K as not enough with $10 starting units, but $3K feels about right.

This is all about the streak, (and I don't mean the kind that $5Bill does at the Nudy resorts) and they few and far between so you need to have enough bullets to last.

[London Shooter]

Americraps, the field has such a high vig per roll. Aren't you just heading down a blind alley regardless? You must know in your heart you can't beat this over any more than say a couple of books, and if you did, a different set and differnet bets would be much more fruitful.

[Americraps]

Hi LS,
Yes, I suspect that the progression can't overcome the 2.78% house advantage in the long run, but I don't know for sure. I guess it depends on how much influence I can impart on the dice. I think RC's EO works so well because of the low house edge bets, and the field bet just doesn't qualify as a low HE bet, but there is a strong streak factor that powers the profits.
I'm not sure what length of field streaks will show up, or how often they will appear, that's why I'm messing around with this in practice only. I wouldn't dream of trying this in a casino unless it proved profitable over the long run on my table. I'm guessing MP ran across this stage in developing his field bet strategy. Maybe i'll end up adopting his two in a row approach.

Which different field bets do you think would be more fruitful?

TIA..

[heavy]

I recall the days before Americraps climbed up in the Big Rig and took off for a life on the road instead of hanging around the house all day trading options and futures.

[Operator]

I wondered where he got off to.

[Americraps]

Hi there,
Sorry I've been dark, I haven't had much to contribute, but I'm still practicing. If Edison was a crapster, he would say, I keep discovering all the ways I don't want to shoot. Lately, I've been working on straight out, using my frisbee shot with mixed results.

I've never traded futures, but lots of options, and stocks. I still do, I'm making money and almost have enough to quit driving. I drive at night for a contractor of Walgreens. It's not too bad as I get to listen to podcasts and vent my anger at the idiots that are going to slow, and the other idiots who are going too fast. I get home around 4 or 5am, sleep till noon, trade till the market closes, go outside and work on my roses. Then I kiss the wife, have dinner, and go to work.
Boring, I know. I'm hoping to make my triumphant return to the casinos, but I have to beat my table first.