Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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mastercrapsman

Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by mastercrapsman » Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:01 am

We know that Prop Bets and Field Bets are not good bets because of their high HA, but we still bet them.

My question is: Do they have a place in your betting strategies? How often do you bet them? When do you bet them? How do you bet them?

Myself, I like the Iron Cross. I modify it after hitting some bets to warrant IRON ACROSS. So I get paid twice on the 4, 9 and 10.
I also bet the Hardways when I have Placed Bet them. I like to get paid in every roll except the 7, however small bets they are. I do this after squirreling some hits though. I know this makes for too many bets on my basket for the 7 to shoot down.

Just curious if I am in the minority.

Moe Bettor
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by Moe Bettor » Sat Oct 22, 2016 8:11 am

I do the same with the hardways. Good ROI.

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heavy
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by heavy » Sat Oct 22, 2016 11:31 am

I play prop bets I have a proven advantage over, e.g. the World bet on the Come Out, because I set for and frequently toss Horn numbers. I've had great success with it through the years. Like the other guys, I use two-way hardway bets for tokes. Typically about $6 an hour. Sometimes we win - most of the time we lose. The other times I'll use hardways are when they are streaking/trending - something a lot of folks don't believe in. I do. I rarely bet any of the individual one-roll prop bets (e.g. the Yo bet or the 3 craps bet). When I DO bet those numbers (due to indicators - something ELSE some folks don't believe in) I have fairly good success. Just recently a set of indicators led me to believe the eleven was rolling next. I tossed out $10 on the Yo and it hit. Sweet when it happens. Overall, I recommend the props strictly as "entertainment" bets. Say you buy in for $300. Set aside a small portion of your buy-in - say $15 - for prop play. Put it in the back rack - all in $1 chips. Bet the props from the back rack. Put prop winnings in the back rack. If you run out of chips in the back rack you're through playing the props for that session. If your white chips turn red, green, black, etc. then increase your bets progressively and shoot for a bigger win. It's rare that will happen, but from time to time you'll get a lightning strike. I've taken as much as $1600 off the table on a come out series strictly by betting the World plus a High-Low and pressing each hit by $7. Lightning strike. It's a beautiful thing.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
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DanF
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by DanF » Sat Oct 22, 2016 11:52 am

I'm getting addict to the anycraps/hard 4-10 when i feel like it, other bets are just bad, easy 6-8 destroy your chances on it and horn/world payout too low IMHO for the risk. If you get a few parlay going these are interresting!

One new thing I started doing is either bet 18 on field for comeout and move winners to 6-8. Or two way 5-9 for 3 each on CO roll for cheap working bets that can easily be covered when table looks hot on those, makes a cheap hand most of the time.

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Bankerdude80
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sat Oct 22, 2016 1:43 pm

Greed will always get the best of us. Nothing like betting strong on two numbers only to see a hot roll where all the OTHER numbers are hitting. Then trying to second guess the dice leads to disaster. Spreading your bets out increases your exposure to the HA and as Irish said the more bets you have out there, the higher the HA you have to overcome. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Isn't this a fun game?
heavy wrote:I play prop bets I have a proven advantage over, e.g. the World bet on the Come Out, because I set for and frequently toss Horn numbers. I've had great success with it through the years.
Lately, I've been re-evaluating this strategy. I haven't had the consistent success as you may have had with a Come-Out game. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. Irish, in past seminars, has always stressed the damage this can do on the bankroll long term if it is not working consistently. When it is working it is profitable and a lot of fun. Over the long term, I think my Come-Out game has worked less for me. No hard data to say for sure.

What should we be looking at when evaluating the reliability of a Come-Out game? The probability of hitting those Horn numbers is minimal to begin with. What dice set for you has resulted in the best Horn outcomes?
"Take the Money and Run...."
- Steve Miller Band

wild child
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by wild child » Sat Oct 22, 2016 3:24 pm

Envision
( to picture (something) in your mind.
Source: Merriam-Webster's Learner's Dictionary )
>
the eleven ( 11 ) possible numbers that are sum of the numbers of a pair of dice
>illustrated as a sea saw ( Titter/Toddler) >
The SEVEN has the greatest propensity ( rounded off to 17 % ) of showing
two , three, four, Five,S I X....SEVEN.....,Eight, Nine ,ten ,yo, twelve
The box numbers Five(5) Six(6) Eight (8) Nine (9) together 50 % of showing
-----------
The "Out Side Numbers Four (4 ) / Ten (10 )
and
The EXTREME OUTSIDE NUMBERS Two(2) /Three (3) Eleven{ YO } and Twelve (12)
fall in smaller or diminishing propensity of showing on any one toss of the cubes...
>>>>>>>>>
In a random toss of two dice,there is near zero predictability
( CRAP SHOOT )
of the outcome of said toss..........
<<<<<
THE HOUSE ADVANTAGE is comprised of a
BY FAR STRONGER COMPREHENSION
OF THE ARITHMETIC
of ANY & ALL WAGER(s) offered on ANY GAME THE HOUSE SANCTIONS
<<<<<
With an ability to de- randomize those results
is the potential to guess on the sum of two dice relative to a single toss
------->Slim Chance trumps ZERO CHANCE <----------
You pays Your $ money and You takes Your chances............

just me saying

w c

220Inside
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Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by 220Inside » Sat Oct 22, 2016 3:35 pm

I only look at prop bets as part of my entertainment allotment for my session. As such, I don't use them until I get beyond my win goal for the session and then I'll start tiptoeing in with them. I'll generally only use them on myself or other qualified shooters.

If the table has an ATS and I get within 1 crap number for the all, I'll toss out a couple of 2 way bets on the number.

If there's no ATS which allows me to set for 7s on my come out rolls, I'll use world bets once I get a feel for how my shot is faring that session.

I almost never cover all the HWs at once, preferring instead to snipe off 1 or 2 at a time with 2 way bets depending on the trend of the shooter at the time.

mastercrapsman

Re: Weight of HA in your betting strategy

Post by mastercrapsman » Sat Oct 22, 2016 6:13 pm

On the Come Out, I sometimes bet Horn High Ace Deuce. If I do that I will raise my PL bet to cover the Horn bet. If the Yo shows, I will
collect almost equal to the Snake Eyes and Box Cars, the High Ace -Deuce will also equal all the rest of the bet's payout. Sometimes I hit
them twice in a row. I also press my Hrn bet after the first hit. Have not tried Parlay except for the Hard nos. hit.

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