Doey Don't Variants

[TopCat]

I was at the Cleveland Jack the last two nights. I was at a different table each night experimenting with the don't side. I think those tables, as bouncy as they are, play better from the don't. I still have a lot to learn about the don't. At each of those tables there was a different person playing essentially the same, doey don't system with a slight variation. First night, table was cold to choppy. Player A (position - straight out - SR4/5) had a $25 DP bet and was playing $76 across working on the come out ($18 on the 6/8). I did not see him post a hedge bet on the come out. If the 6 or 8 hit, he would rack the winnings and regress his 6 and 8 to $12 each. He would place odds on the DP of anywhere from about $40 up to about $100 depending on the shooter. Some stacks were all red chips about $75 to $100 so the dealer made him split the DP and the odds so the shooter would miss the bets. Then, he would wait for a decision. He would rack all winnings on any number that hit. He rarely pressed his place bets. He also took down the place bet he had on the point once that was established. He would top his odds bet the deeper into the roll it went. He also squirrelled away his chips. When he colored up, he kept digging in his pockets for green and red chips and colored up $1800. I don't know what he bought in for.

The next night, a different guy, Player B, at SR1 played a similar system. $10 DP, wait for a point to be established then he would place $54 or $52 across depending on the point. He would not place the point. His odds on the DP were anywhere from $40 to about $80. I thought he was doing okay while I was playing with him until one shooter, also a don't player, straight out at SL4/5, had a hot roll. On previous rolls, he 7ed out after 5 or 6 rolls ( I was charting the table). This time, he hit 4 to the fire. On his 5th point, the 9, Player B went all in: DP 10, Odds 30, $54 across except the point and then he layed $600 on the 9. We waited for a decision. He racked up all his wins on the place bets. Shooter actually hit about 10 more numbers before the 7 came. Player B took $1000 on the lay bet plus his DP and told me he was even and left.

Neither player used the DC bet.

How do you evaluate the similar doey-don't system they used? If Player A places all the numbers on the come out, should he place a hedge? If so, what would be an appropriate hedge?

What kind of bankroll should a player have to play this system? If place minimum place bets plus $10 DP and up to $40 odds - $1000 buy in?

[Dylanfreake]

About $25,000 should be a decent Total Gambling Bankroll for a conservative player making a $10 DP laying $40 in odds and betting $54 across.

Session buyin (amount one is willing to risk for the session) is $1000.

[London Shooter]

I'd say 500-600 buyin per session should be OK but much would depend on how the DP is played. One loss per shooter, tow or more? Also any odds progression on DP losses? These could increase the bankroll needs per session considerably.

[Moe Bettor]

Great report TopCat. It's like a sine wave..you get those hot periods within a cold situation. If the shooter is going seven
after five or six rolls after getting sevens within 4 rolls, it might be signal that the table is going to give you a right side hot moment. DP w/place bets regressing is a good deal in those case IMO. And then if the roll goes on and junk starts coming in..maybe throw odds on yr. DP or lay a bet out there.

[heavy]

I use the sine wave example a lot when explaining how we gain our advantage with dice influencing. Simply put, on a basic sine wave the center line is here _______________ for random rollers. But for DI's it's up here ------------------. That means we have more toss time with a lower house edge. We raise the bar. Confusing? Ah, graphics (and time) limitations.

[luxlogs]

I played a Doey Don't once, rolled a 12, enough of that S#!T.

[Dylanfreake]

Well , the Don't player playing the DoeyDont gets hit on a come out 12, so the 3-8 disadvantage on the comeout is still a 3-8 disadvantage.

The Right side player is hurt the worst playing the DoeyDont because he is giving up a 2-1 come out advantage when making the DontPass wager.

For me it makes no sense at all to play a DoeyDont if you are a right side player.

[SHOOTITALL]

The Right side player is hurt the worst playing the DoeyDont because he is giving up a 2-1 come out advantage when making the DontPass wager.

DF: You sure about that? Are you sampling that there mountain dew for which AR is noted?

[Dylanfreake]

On the comeout roll the pass line player has 8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose.

On the comeout roll the DP player has 3 ways to win and 8 ways to lose.

Yes, I am sampling a new batch.

[heavy]

But once the pass line bet is established, on average the shooter will 7 out 2 out of 3 times without making his pass.

[Dylanfreake]

Yes. That is why it is a good idea to lay odds when playing the DP and why one should hesitate to take odds on the PL wager.

[mssthis1]

Dylanfreake: Do you ever use an odds progression when you run into those streaks of multiple shooters who fail to make their point? I've killed a few brain cells trying to come up with one but laying more to win less with varying amounts depending on the point makes it difficult. Maybe go up 1 unit after 2 wins in a row and one unit with each win thereafter?

[Dylanfreake]

I have only used Professor H`s Don't Pass Odds Progression in which after three wins in a row you go up one unit in odds for each win thereafter.

[flextimeLV]

To be clear on this. Professor H's progression calls for increasing the payout one unit (say $5) per increase up the ladder, so you would lay whatever it takes to make 2x odds, 3x odds, 4x odds, and so forth. DF and the Professor later tweaked the progression to lessen the bite from a hit on the 4/10 and changed the progression to be up the ladder $6 each rung. You progress from single odds for three hits in a row ($6 on 6/8, $9 on 5/9, $10 on 4/10) to $12 regardless of the point, then $18, $24, $30, and so forth.

I continue playing the modified version and think it's the best way to grind consistent wins. I've long considered how to combine the Professor's don't pass survival kit bankroll strategy with his don't pass progression.

My latest application is as follows:

In a $5 game start with $150. That''s derived from the $5 don't pass plus the maximum odds I would ever lay which comes to $10 on the 4/10, so $15 total times 10 shooters and you get $150. My BR is currently at $2400 so that's raising the risk higher than I'd like given that $150 times 20 (prefer 25) = $3000. I hold $15 in my hand on a new shooter and play a $5 DC. If they PSO or F'n YO me, then I put the remaining $10 in the lockup rack and start over with $15 on the next shooter. If I get a 2 or 3, I add the $5 to my hand stack. If I get a point established, I lay single odds. If that gets knocked off, I place my remaining hand stack in the lockup rack and start over with $15 on the next shooter. If it wins, I add what's returned to my hand stack and start again with another $5 DC and single odds. Three wins and I'm moving to $12 odds, then $18, $24, and so forth. One knockoff ends the progression and everything left in my hand goes to the lockup.

After the front rack is gone, I count the lockup rack. If $180 or higher (20% gain), I pocket the win and restart at $150. If less than $75 (50% down), I call the session a loss and reload at $150 (usually take a break or go home; I found a single session can last hours before I get a decision up or down). If between $75 and $175, I move everything to the front rack and resume the battle, rinse and repeat.

I go back and forth debating whether I should treat a DC 7/11 mid-progression as a progression loss, put my hand stack in the lockup rack, and start over with the next shooter. I think the Professor would not count such events as a progression bust, but DF would given his limited bankroll.

Suggestions are WELCOME!

[Dylanfreake]

Flextime, You have a good way to play including your money management.

Professor H would lose three times to a shooter`s tossing of naturals at which time he would quit betting on that shooter . On the next shooter he would pick up the progression . So he did ignore comeout losses.

On a comeout loss to a natural, I would quit betting on the shooter and drop back to step one, the base progression. ( Ala, Sam Grafstein ).

[London Shooter]

Flextime,

Thanks for posting up your strategy which I think is an excellent, methodical way to play the don'ts - and let's face it, being consistent and methodical seems to suit the other side of the game particularly well. I like the 10 shooters thing, move to next shooter on a loss and the win/loss/odds progression parameters you have in place.

Is it correct that with this play you always place your DC bet straight after the shooter establishes a point?

[flextimeLV]

Straight afterwards, yes. No waiting on a roll count. Thanks!

[mastercrapsman]

Comments on this please:

Doey Don't 7 Dominant Variance

Since the PL has an advantage over the DP during the come out roll, Why not make the PL double the amount of the DP. When the point is established lay Odds on the DP so that the payout is more than the PL bet? This way you are betting for the most dominant no. 7 both times.

[flextimeLV]

Let's run some examples. $10 PL with $5 DP.

Point is 4/10. Lay $24 odds to make $12. Shooter makes the point. I win $10, but I'm out $29 on the don't, net minus $19. 0.055556 (161.1124)
Point is 5/9. Lay $18 to make $12. Shooter makes point and I'm down minus $13. 0.088889 (115.5557)
Point is 6/8. Lay $18 to make $15. Shooter makes point and I'm down minus $13. 0.126263 (164.1419)

Comeout 7/11 and I'm ahead $5. 0.222222 111.111
Comeout 2/3 and I'm down minus $5. 0.083333 (41.6665)
Comeout 12 and I'm down minus $10. 0.027777 (27.7777)

Shooter fails to make 4/10 and I'm ahead $7. 0.111111 77.7777
Shooter fails to make 5/9 and I'm ahead $7. 0.133333 93.3331
Shooter fails to make 6/8 and I'm ahead $10. 0.151515 151.515

111.111 + 77.7777 + 93.3331 + 151.515 = 433.7368
(161.1124) + (115.5557) + (164.1419) + (41.6665) + (27.7777) = (482.4765)
Net = (48.7397) .... not a winner.

[mastercrapsman]

Not a winner on that strategy. Thanks for the enlightenment.

How about this:

After 7-out, bet DP
After Point, bet DC, no Odds on any DC, keep making DC until one is lost, stop making DC bet
Start making Come Bets, keep making Come Bets until 7-out.
As PL and Come Bets wins, keep making base bets and increase Odds incrementally starting with the 8 or 6 first.
If DP loses to Come Out 7 or makes the Point switch to PL.

Thanks in advance