Frankly, if we went purely by the math of any casino game we would not play at all. Let's face it. The games are designed to be in the house's favor. And except for rare casino math mistakes on their part (for example, promo game rules in blackjack where the math guy miscalculated the odd and the casino promoted a game that favored players) the games ARE in their favor ALL the time. So how do we ever win? Basically it all boils down to Variance. But we'll come back to that in a minute.
Generally speaking (there are casinos where the rules differ, but they are the exception) If we go strictly by the math we'd only bet . . . say . . . the best seven bets at craps. Pass Line with odds. Don't Pass with odds. Come with odds. Don't Come with odds. Place the six and eight. Buy the four and ten in casinos that only collect the commission on the win. Lay the four and ten in casinos that only collect the commission on the win. There you go. You would, in fact, NEVER bet the five or nine (due to the 4% house edge). You'd steer well away from the Field. You'd ignore the prop action completely. Hop bets? Forget about it.
Truth be known, those ARE the best bets over the long run. Of course, how you define long run makes a difference IMHO. From the casinos perspective the long run is made up of all the play of all the players for all time. The average player, with his minuscule $300 - $500 buy in, is a gnat on the ass of the long run. If you walk into the casino today and buy in on any game - anything can and will happen during the next 45 minutes. The table may hold every dime dropped in the box - or it may dump and need chip fill after chip fill. Most of the time it will be choppy. Players will win some. The house will win some. And at the end of the session you may be up or down a little - or a lot. And this happens despite of the math of the game.
Think in terms of the win/loss ratio at the table as a sine wave.
- sinewave.jpg (18.49 KiB) Viewed 5161 times
So why don't all of us play this way and break the casinos? Well, because in general (as my broker likes to say) past performance is no indication of future results. I agree with that. However, history is about the only thing (besides math) that we have to go on. And (as I like to say) history has a way of repeating itself. So let's get back to those dastardly fives and nines.
Here's an example of a craps hand similar to what I, myself, have tossed:
12 - 11 - 12 - 9 - 10 - 8H - 9P
9 - 8 - 10H - 5 - 9P
2 - 11 - 4 - 9 - 8 - 8H - 9 - 6 - 9 - 10H
11 - 9 - 5 - 6 - 9P
9 - 9P
3 - 5 - 9 - 9 - 7out
Okay, what can I tell you from those numbers? Bet the ridiculously high vig Horn or World bet on the Come Out. Bet the nine. Bet the hard 8. Bet the hard 10. Okay, I see. Every hard 8 I bet got knocked off by an easy 8, so let's forget that one unless you bet it from the get-go, which I don't recommend. The hard 10 repeated so there's a completed parlay if you play like me. But placing betting the six and eight would have paid off - as would placing the five and nine. In particular, you HAVE to bet the nine on a hand like this. When do I recognize that fact if it's someone other than me shooting? When he tosses the second nine and makes his pass. The nine is clearly the dominant number in this hand, and if you are playing in the moment - which is how I play - then you absolutely MUST have a wager on the nine.
How would my competitors play this hand? Well, they teach that you should never bet the five or nine. So while you're taking your nine from $15 to $35 to $75 to $150 to $350 (that last one pays you $500 for $10) they're standing there with their thumbs . . . well, they're busy talking to the cocktail server.
Does the math of the game matter? Of course. And while your results may ultimately mirror the casino's model - if you have a cool head and understand how to capitalize on a streak, manage your money when the table is on the take, and quit when you are ahead - there's no reason why you CAN'T be a long run winner.
Just my opinion but I'm sticking with it.