Betting Strategy Thread - Anyone Game?

[heavy]

From time to time I will run a betting strategy thread on the forum. The concept is fairly simple. I will pre-select a book of rolls - either live rolls recorded at a seminar, student rolls from the dealer school, or (heaven forbid) a book of my personal practice rolls. We'll run a "game" over the course of a pre-determined number of days/rolls. You (if you choose to participate) agree to visit the forum once daily (more if you want) to post your betting strategy, what your next move is, etc. I will provide you with a specific format for posting if you decide to participate. You will be responsible for daily updates to include what your last bet was, how much you won on the last decision, what your current total bankroll is (including what's on the layout) and how much you are up or down for the series. I'll also want a fairly detailed description of your strategy. At the end of the pre-determined number of days/rolls we'll tally up and see whose strategy reigns supreme. Sounds like I've been watching too much Iron Chef.

Anybody want to volunteer? Note: I can only have one person playing each strategy, so if you are a Pass with 3 Come Bets guy then you'll be the only one. If you are a Six and Eight Progression player you'll be the one. If you are a $110 inside, two hits and regress to $44 inside person - yeah, you're getting the drill. If you are a Dave's System don't player . . . okay. There you go. I think six or eight players should be sufficient. Any more than that and it gets very confusing.

Volunteers? Once we have our table filled I'll toss out a few ground rules and we'll go from there.

h

[DeadCat]

I've seen a few attempts to compare different betting methods over a given set of rolls. Under the heading "Apples to Apples" may I suggest that the bets all be approximately the same size? I hate it when people compare something like $110 Inside to $12 6 & 8 (for instance).

[realtime]

Here is my submission.

Assumption is a $10 game.

2 and 12 in the field pay 2x

12 barred on DP line

Come out roll $10 doey/don't bet. ($10 on PL and $10 on DP)

Second roll after point is established $105 Iron Cross ($25 5, $30 6, $30 8, $20 field)

Collect on three individual rolls

Take down Iron Cross bets

If point is 6 or 8, take single odds.

If point is 5,9,4, or 10 lay single odds

Play until a decision is made.

Run "system" (man I hate that word in a craps context) only once per shooter.

Mike

[heavy]

Thanks. DC - We'll give everyone an equal virtual bankroll to start the series. How the player manages that bankroll is a big part of the equation.

Realtime - hold that thought. We'll need a few more players but I want you on the ist with your strategy.

Anybody else want in on theis experiment?

[Mad Professor]

I'd hate for anyone to step forward and offer to play the MP $204-Across Two-Hit Equal-Payout Regression, only to find that the max buy-in is only $500.


MP

[heavy]

Okay, I'll admit it. The virtual bankroll will be $500 per player. It will be interesting to see of someone decides to adopt a tournament style play - like betting $204 across while laying the nine for $310 or some such thing - as opposed to more conservative "real world" plays.

[realtime]

Ok, if bankroll is $500 I'm out. Bump it to $5,000 and I will play.

Mike

[Buy The Four]

I will join in on the action. $500.00 is light but I will still join in on the fun. I will write out all of my plays and thoughts as we go.

[al_falcons]

I would certainly like to play, but I am going to be out of commission for the next week traveling for business and personal reasons. I will check back after that and see if it is still going.

[al_falcons]

If I could suggest a method for someone, with a $500 buy in, try $12 6&8 and press the winning number $6 each time it hits. Keep on doing that until the cows come home and see how it does.

[Aztek]

Here is my play:

Come out roll:

100$ on lay the 10
10 dollar world bet (press half the win)

Point established place bet 44 inside

2 hits chop the lay 10 in half
4 hits lay is down

Any craps after the point place a 5 dollar world bet and press one unit each hit.

If the 10 lay 10 gets whacked early 5 and 9 come down 6 and 8 remain.

After that press each inside number one unit.

[heavy]

Wow. Some complicated action there. How about this one for a $500 bankroll. First bet $50 Pass Line. Wait for a decision. Win? Next bet $75 Pass Line. Lose? Next bet $50 Pass Line. Bet the PL only. Run a 50% progression on every win. Back to a $50 bet on any loss. Pray for a streak.

OR . . .

$50 DP. Wins? Next bet is $75 DP. Lose? Next bet $50 DP. Same progression as on the right side but on the Don'ts. Soooo simple.

[amish dude]

yes and how about using my practice rolls as a guide ? first roll is at 9:30 after my coffee.
milking should be done by then!LOL

[Aztek]

I am going to be using that strategy this weekend in Delaware and 1st week of May in California and Reno while on business. I just ran 7 games of wincraps using it tonight. I bet like I would in the casino and keep track of all the rolls in a journal. Here are my results:

1a plus 212
1b plus 121
1c plus 121
2a plus 451 (3 7 7 7 7 9 7 with a 100 lay on 10)
2b plus 272
2c plus 729 (5 point fire bet at 3 bucks for 750 helped)
3a minus 321

Got into a severe clump of 4s and 10s in 3a. Hands 3, 4, 5 and 6 each had a lay bust and none of them were over 6 rolls. I violated one of my rules which is never flip from one busted lay on 4 or 10 to the other. At least in the Casino I show more patience!

[Roller123]

I'm in.

Roller

[wudged]

I'm in too. I'll keep track of al_falcons's suggestion as well.

[SHOOTITALL]

How about a one hit strat? $18 6/8 $20 DP, Close to 10% so could run it ~9 times, once around the table?
MP did at stat on this a year or two ago, can't remember the results, but seems like around 5% disadvantage. Memory fades.

[John1]

Here is my contribution which has produced outstanding at the tables exceeding well and I’m perfectly confident with the continuance of its performance.

Begin with 1U DP after a point is made.
Win Restart.
Lose go to 2U
Win Restart

Lose go to 3U
Win Bet 3U Again…. Looking for two wins in a row Restart
Lose go to 5U

Win Bet 5U Again…. Looking for two wins in a row Restart
Lose go to 8U

john1

Win Bet 8U Again…. Looking for two wins in a row Restart
Lose go to 8U

Win 8U Now we’ll Parlay our winnings, with a win we’ll Restart
Lose Bet 11

Win 11U Now we’ll Parlay our winnings, with a win we’ll Restart
Lose Bet 15

Win 15U Now we’ll Parlay our winnings, with a win we’ll Restart

Additionally:
Grand Martingale…. Begin with either six or eight with 1U for two rolls or a win then it’s down. Lose.... Then its up to 3U etc. for five levels. Best when I'm the Shooter.

[memo]

Heavy,

I see what you are doing here..Keeping it 'real', and consistant for all.
I am kinda inclined to agree with MP and Realtime...

With these limitations, it cuts out many viable schemes that have a lot of validity, but are dependant on a bank and buy in to support it.
That being said...
Your bat, ball and park. I have no problem with the rules as stated...Maybe as a compromise, MP and others can track their stratigy and report later. I would be interested.

Sorry I can not participate personally, my schedule will not allow consistant presence. I certainly will follow though.

Memo

[heavy]

One thing I will do different than I've done on other series like this - if a shooter sevens out we will not start the next hand with the same shooter. I'll pull from a different book of rolls from a different player. We'll try to make it as real-world as possible.

My intent at this point is to crank this thing up this Saturday. I'll post one roll/decision per day. That post will occur around 8PM most nights, although it might run later some nights due to personal committments. In any case, I'll do my best to get it posted before 12 Midnight each day. But I'll set the cut-off for getting YOUR bets posted in the prescribed format at 7PM daily. At 7PM it'll be "no more bets - hands high."